<p>目前，只有 11 家上市公司可以声称其市值超过 1 万亿美元。</p>
<p>这个精英的万亿俱乐部包括了 <strong>英伟达</strong>（Nvidia）（NVDA 1.65%）、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>博通</strong>、<strong>台积电</strong>、<strong>特斯拉</strong>，以及沃伦·巴菲特的多元化企业 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong> 和石油巨头沙特阿美。</p>
<p>在这些公司中，英伟达无疑是最为卓越的。其市值约为 4.4 万亿美元，是全球最有价值的公司。</p>
<p>我不仅认为英伟达有能力保持这一桂冠，我还预计在未来五年内，它的市值将超过特斯拉、伯克希尔·哈撒韦和雄心勃勃的人工智能公司 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong> 的总和，这在很大程度上得益于其量子计算业务的变革潜力。</p>
<h2>量子计算是人工智能的下一个前沿</h2>
<p>量子计算被广泛认为是经典计算的自然继承者。传统计算机以二进制格式存储和处理信息——0 和 1。量子计算机使用量子比特（qubits）——可以取值为 1 或 0，但也可以通过一种称为叠加的现象存在于 1 和 0 的复杂线性状态的组合中。</p>
<p>理论上，这使得量子计算机能够迅速解决当今最先进的超级计算机需要耗费大量时间才能解决的问题——从破解高级加密到药物发现再到气候建模。</p>
<p>尽管量子计算行业仍处于初期阶段，但期望值却高得惊人。全球管理咨询公司麦肯锡（McKinsey &amp; Company）预测，量子应用的突破在未来几十年内可能会创造数万亿美元的经济价值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyNDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ5MjgyMjI0LTIuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="465" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyNDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ5MjgyMjI0LTIuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英伟达在量子时代扮演关键角色</h2>
<p>一波较小的创新者正在尝试在量子计算领域取得进展，探索如捕获离子技术、退火和光子量子比特等途径，以争夺下一个代际突破。</p>
<p>相比之下，英伟达并没有将自己定位为单一的硬件架构。投资者可能没有充分意识到，该公司已经深深嵌入量子生态系统。其图形处理单元（GPU）越来越多地被用于运行先进的模拟，特别是在连接量子和经典计算的混合系统中。</p>
<p>然而，英伟达真正的差异化因素不在于硬件，而在于软件。该公司的 CUDA 计算平台，长期以来一直是人工智能基础设施的支柱，现在正在被改编为 CUDA-Q——一个旨在支持下一代处理器上量子应用的平台。</p>
<p>通过在硬件和软件之间建立这一桥梁，英伟达正在将自己定位为量子发展的不可或缺的一层，无论哪种架构和方法成功并达到关键规模。这一战略使得公司在人工智能下一个万亿美元机会中获得了不对称的曝光，增强了其长期持续估值扩张的潜力。</p>
<h2>为什么伯克希尔、特斯拉和 Palantir 可能在 2030 年前滞后</h2>
<p>在这种背景下，值得审视我认为即使合并也无法在未来五年内超过英伟达的三家公司估值情况。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong>：作为一家成熟且多元化的企业，伯克希尔现在被广泛视为一个稳定的复合增长机器，而不是一个颠覆性、以增长为导向的力量来重塑行业。投资者通常不愿意对这种类型的企业赋予溢价倍数。虽然它确实有上升潜力，并有机会在未来五年内产生可观的回报，但伯克希尔的估值特征缺乏英伟达的爆发性吸引力。</li>
<li><strong>特斯拉</strong>：特斯拉已经承载着由投资者对其人工智能驱动的雄心（尤其是其机器人出租车车队和人形机器人 Optimus 的计划）所推动的高估值。然而，挑战在于这些计划的可扩展性仍未得到验证。自动驾驶汽车和机器人市场竞争激烈，如果投资者开始对公司的执行或管理层能否按时交付失去耐心，特斯拉可能面临急剧的估值重置风险。</li>
<li><strong>Palantir</strong>：Palantir 成功地将自己品牌化为一个关键的企业软件提供商，独特地定位于捕捉人工智能投资流动，因为它从基础设施转向应用程序。然而，挑战依然存在。该公司面临来自微软、快速增长的独角兽 Databricks 以及 <strong>BigBear.ai</strong> 和 <strong>C3.ai</strong> 等专业公司的强大竞争。Palantir 在未来几年的投资特征看起来脆弱。由于其估值已经超出历史规范，任何显示投资者的高期望与 Palantir 的增长基本面现实之间不一致的消息都可能导致股价暴跌。</li>
</ul>
<p>到 2030 年，伯克希尔可能仍将是投资稳定性的坚实支柱。与此同时，特斯拉和 Palantir 可能会偶尔闪耀，但如果它们无法跟上各自竞争环境的动态，投资者对它们的热情可能会减退。</p>
<p>另一方面，到下一个十年开始时，英伟达可能在人工智能和量子计算的交汇处占据关键位置。作为该硬件和软件生态系统的核心参与者，英伟达代表了量子时代的终极技术堆栈。如果它在这一领域取得成功，将使其能够证明一个估值，轻松超过今天许多行业领导者的总和。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>预计到 2030 年，英伟达的市值将超过特斯拉、伯克希尔哈撒韦和帕兰提尔的总和，这得益于其在量子计算方面的进展。虽然英伟达的 GPU 和 CUDA-Q 平台使其在量子生态系统中处于领先地位，但伯克希尔被视为一个稳定但不具颠覆性的实体，特斯拉面临其人工智能项目可扩展性未经过验证的风险，而帕兰提尔则面临激烈的竞争。总体而言，英伟达在量子技术方面的增长潜力预计将显著超过其竞争对手</p>

<p>At the moment, just 11 publicly traded companies can claim a market capitalization above $1 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，只有 11 家上市公司可以声称其市值超过 1 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>That elite trillion-dollar club includes tech juggernauts such as <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.65%), <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, <strong>Broadcom</strong>, <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor</strong>, <strong>Tesla</strong>, along with Warren Buffett's diversified conglomerate <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> and oil giant Saudi Aramco.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个精英的万亿俱乐部包括了 <strong>英伟达</strong>（Nvidia）（NVDA 1.65%）、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>博通</strong>、<strong>台积电</strong>、<strong>特斯拉</strong>，以及沃伦·巴菲特的多元化企业 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong> 和石油巨头沙特阿美。</p>
</div><p>Among them, Nvidia reigns supreme. With a market cap of roughly $4.4 trillion, it's the most valuable company in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这些公司中，英伟达无疑是最为卓越的。其市值约为 4.4 万亿美元，是全球最有价值的公司。</p>
</div><p>Not only do I think Nvidia is positioned to maintain that crown, I also expect it to remain worth more than Tesla, Berkshire Hathaway, and ambitious AI player <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong> combined over the next five years, thanks in no small part to the transformative potential of its quantum computing business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不仅认为英伟达有能力保持这一桂冠，我还预计在未来五年内，它的市值将超过特斯拉、伯克希尔·哈撒韦和雄心勃勃的人工智能公司 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong> 的总和，这在很大程度上得益于其量子计算业务的变革潜力。</p>
</div><h2>Quantum computing is the next frontier of AI</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>量子计算是人工智能的下一个前沿</h2>
</div><p>Quantum computing is widely regarded as the natural successor to classical computing. Traditional computers store and process information in binary formats -- 0s and 1s. Quantum machines use qubits -- units that can have values of 1 or 0, but also can exist in complex linear states that are combinations of 1 and 0 through a phenomenon known as superposition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子计算被广泛认为是经典计算的自然继承者。传统计算机以二进制格式存储和处理信息——0 和 1。量子计算机使用量子比特（qubits）——可以取值为 1 或 0，但也可以通过一种称为叠加的现象存在于 1 和 0 的复杂线性状态的组合中。</p>
</div><p>In theory, this gives quantum computers the ability to rapidly tackle problems that would take today's most advanced supercomputers prohibitive amounts of time to solve -- from cracking high-level cryptography to drug discovery to climate modeling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>理论上，这使得量子计算机能够迅速解决当今最先进的超级计算机需要耗费大量时间才能解决的问题——从破解高级加密到药物发现再到气候建模。</p>
</div><p>Although the quantum computing industry remains in its infancy, expectations are sky-high. Global management consulting firm McKinsey &amp; Company projects that breakthroughs in quantum applications could generate trillions in economic value over the coming decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管量子计算行业仍处于初期阶段，但期望值却高得惊人。全球管理咨询公司麦肯锡（McKinsey &amp; Company）预测，量子应用的突破在未来几十年内可能会创造数万亿美元的经济价值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyNDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ5MjgyMjI0LTIuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829246%2Fgettyimages-149282224-2.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>How Nvidia is playing a critical role in the quantum era</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达在量子时代扮演关键角色</h2>
</div><p>A wave of smaller innovators is attempting to make headway in the quantum computing landscape, exploring avenues such as trapped-ion technology, annealing, and photonic qubits in a race to unlock the next generational breakthrough.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一波较小的创新者正在尝试在量子计算领域取得进展，探索如捕获离子技术、退火和光子量子比特等途径，以争夺下一个代际突破。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia, by contrast, isn't positioning itself as a singular hardware architecture. What investors may not fully appreciate is that the company is already deeply embedded in the quantum ecosystem. Its graphics processing units (GPUs) are increasingly being used to run advanced simulations, particularly in hybrid systems that bridge quantum and classical computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，英伟达并没有将自己定位为单一的硬件架构。投资者可能没有充分意识到，该公司已经深深嵌入量子生态系统。其图形处理单元（GPU）越来越多地被用于运行先进的模拟，特别是在连接量子和经典计算的混合系统中。</p>
</div><p>Yet Nvidia's true differentiator lies not in hardware but in software. The company's CUDA computing platform, long the backbone of AI infrastructure, is now being adapted into CUDA-Q -- a platform designed to support quantum applications on the next generation of processors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，英伟达真正的差异化因素不在于硬件，而在于软件。该公司的 CUDA 计算平台，长期以来一直是人工智能基础设施的支柱，现在正在被改编为 CUDA-Q——一个旨在支持下一代处理器上量子应用的平台。</p>
</div><p>By building this bridge between hardware and software, Nvidia is positioning itself as an indispensable layer for scaling quantum development, regardless of which architectures and approaches succeed and reach critical scale. This strategy gives the company asymmetric exposure to AI's next trillion-dollar opportunity, reinforcing its potential for continued valuation expansion over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通过在硬件和软件之间建立这一桥梁，英伟达正在将自己定位为量子发展的不可或缺的一层，无论哪种架构和方法成功并达到关键规模。这一战略使得公司在人工智能下一个万亿美元机会中获得了不对称的曝光，增强了其长期持续估值扩张的潜力。</p>
</div><h2>Why Berkshire, Tesla, and Palantir could lag through 2030</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么伯克希尔、特斯拉和 Palantir 可能在 2030 年前滞后</h2>
</div><p>Against this backdrop, it's worth examining the valuation profiles of the three companies that I don't expect even combined to surpass Nvidia in the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，值得审视我认为即使合并也无法在未来五年内超过英伟达的三家公司估值情况。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Berkshire Hathaway:</strong> As a mature and diversified conglomerate, Berkshire is now widely regarded as a steady compounding machine rather than a disruptive, growth-oriented force reshaping industries. Investors typically refrain from assigning premium multiples to businesses of this type. While it certainly has upside potential and the opportunity to generate respectable returns over the next five years, Berkshire's valuation profile lacks the explosive appeal of Nvidia.</li>
<li><strong>Tesla:</strong> Tesla already carries a frothy valuation fueled by investor enthusiasm for its AI-driven ambitions -- most notably its plans for a robotaxi fleet and its humanoid robot, Optimus. The challenge, however, is that the scalability of these initiatives remains unproven. Both the autonomous vehicle and robotics markets are highly competitive, and Tesla risks a sharp valuation reset if investors begin to lose patience with the company's execution or management's ability to deliver on its aggressive timelines.</li>
<li><strong>Palantir:</strong> Palantir has successfully branded itself as a mission-critical enterprise software provider, uniquely positioned to capture the flow of AI investment as it moves downstream from infrastructure to applications. Still, challenges remain. The company faces formidable competition from Microsoft, fast-growing unicorn Databricks, and specialized players like <strong>BigBear.ai</strong> and <strong>C3.ai</strong>. Palantir's investment profile over the next several years looks vulnerable. With its valuations already stretching beyond their historical norms, any news that shows a misalignment between investors' lofty expectations and the reality of Palantir's growth fundamentals could send the stock plummeting.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong>：作为一家成熟且多元化的企业，伯克希尔现在被广泛视为一个稳定的复合增长机器，而不是一个颠覆性、以增长为导向的力量来重塑行业。投资者通常不愿意对这种类型的企业赋予溢价倍数。虽然它确实有上升潜力，并有机会在未来五年内产生可观的回报，但伯克希尔的估值特征缺乏英伟达的爆发性吸引力。</li>
<li><strong>特斯拉</strong>：特斯拉已经承载着由投资者对其人工智能驱动的雄心（尤其是其机器人出租车车队和人形机器人 Optimus 的计划）所推动的高估值。然而，挑战在于这些计划的可扩展性仍未得到验证。自动驾驶汽车和机器人市场竞争激烈，如果投资者开始对公司的执行或管理层能否按时交付失去耐心，特斯拉可能面临急剧的估值重置风险。</li>
<li><strong>Palantir</strong>：Palantir 成功地将自己品牌化为一个关键的企业软件提供商，独特地定位于捕捉人工智能投资流动，因为它从基础设施转向应用程序。然而，挑战依然存在。该公司面临来自微软、快速增长的独角兽 Databricks 以及 <strong>BigBear.ai</strong> 和 <strong>C3.ai</strong> 等专业公司的强大竞争。Palantir 在未来几年的投资特征看起来脆弱。由于其估值已经超出历史规范，任何显示投资者的高期望与 Palantir 的增长基本面现实之间不一致的消息都可能导致股价暴跌。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>In 2030, Berkshire will likely remain a durable pillar of investment stability. Meanwhile, Tesla and Palantir may dazzle intermittently, but if they cannot keep pace with the dynamics of their respective competitive landscapes, investors' enthusiasm for them could wane.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到 2030 年，伯克希尔可能仍将是投资稳定性的坚实支柱。与此同时，特斯拉和 Palantir 可能会偶尔闪耀，但如果它们无法跟上各自竞争环境的动态，投资者对它们的热情可能会减退。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, by the start of the next decade, Nvidia could occupy a key position at the intersection of AI and quantum computing. With the potential to become a core player in that hardware and software ecosystem, Nvidia represents the ultimate technology stack of the quantum era. If it succeeds there, that would allow it to justify a valuation that could easily eclipse many of today's industry leaders combined.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，到下一个十年开始时，英伟达可能在人工智能和量子计算的交汇处占据关键位置。作为该硬件和软件生态系统的核心参与者，英伟达代表了量子时代的终极技术堆栈。如果它在这一领域取得成功，将使其能够证明一个估值，轻松超过今天许多行业领导者的总和。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Quantum Computing Stock Will Still Be Worth More Than Berkshire Hathaway, Palantir, and Tesla Combined in 2030

- 目前仅有 11 家上市公司市值超过 1 万亿美元，Nvidia 以 4.4 万亿美元领跑。  
- Nvidia 在量子计算领域的战略使其在未来五年内有望持续领先。  
- 预计到 2030 年，Berkshire、Tesla 和 Palantir 的估值将无法超越 Nvidia。

预测：到 2030 年，这只量子计算股票的市值将仍然超过伯克希尔·哈撒韦、Palantir 和特斯拉的总和