<p>尽管市场上有许多不同投资者的各种观点，但 “聪明资金” 仍然备受推崇。这里所说的聪明资金是指专业投资者，他们中的许多人管理自己的基金，拥有数十年的投资经验，并且能够展示长期的回报以支持他们的观点。</p>
<p>就像市场一样，专业人士在个别股票上很少达成一致。因此，当你看到一群精英对冲基金和亿万富翁涌入某只股票时，这可能是一个强烈的指标。</p>
<p><strong>联合健康集团</strong>（UNH 1.34%）今年的股票遭遇重创，原因多种多样。但尽管在今年第二季度继续大幅抛售，一些华尔街最知名的对冲基金和亿万富翁开始涌入该股票。他们显然认为找到了一个不对称的机会，也就是说，他们认为该股票的潜在上涨远远超过潜在下跌。</p>
<h2>巴菲特和其他亿万富翁正在投资</h2>
<p>联合健康最近获得了巨大的推动，因为沃伦·巴菲特的 <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> 披露在第二季度末持有超过 15 亿美元的头寸。巴菲特及其团队本质上是价值投资者，寻找那些被低估的股票，这些股票可以在更长的时间框架内获得回报。但不仅仅是巴菲特在投资；一整群对冲基金投资者也购买了该股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk1NjIvcGVvcGxlLXRhbGtpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk1NjIvcGVvcGxlLXRhbGtpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>由亿万富翁投资者大卫·泰珀（David Tepper）管理的 <strong>Appaloosa Management</strong> 将其持股增加了 1300%，从第一季度的 175,000 股增至第二季度的 245 万股。该头寸的价值超过 7.64 亿美元。</p>
<p>由在电影《大空头》中出现的迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）管理的 <strong>Scion Asset Management</strong> 在第二季度购买了 1200 万美元的股票，以及 35 万份长期看涨期权。看涨期权是给予投资者在特定价格之前或在特定日期之前购买股票的权利（但不是义务）的合约。每份看涨期权的价值为 100 股，如果股票的市场价格在特定日期之前超过看涨期权的行使价格，投资者将获利。购买看涨期权是对股票价格上涨的押注，因此是乐观的迹象。</p>
<p>由亿万富翁斯蒂芬·曼德尔（Stephen Mandel Jr.）管理的 <strong>Lone Pine Capital</strong> 购买了超过 169 万股。</p>
<p>由彼得·布朗（Peter Brown）管理的 <strong>Renaissance Technologies</strong> 购买了大约 135 万股。</p>
<p>虽然在第二季度也有基金抛售联合健康，但并不是每天都能看到一些华尔街最成功和最有声望的投资者在同一季度购买同一只股票。</p>
<h2>短期挑战可能掩盖核心业务</h2>
<p>联合健康今年确实面临挑战。医疗成本比预期高出数十亿美元，整个行业的趋势，包括昂贵的医疗保健、更高的利用率、价格高昂的处方药和老龄化人口，都造成了强大的逆风。</p>
<p>这预计将显著压低公司今年的收益。管理层预计调整后的每股收益（EPS）“至少为 16 美元”，低于去年的约 27.66 美元。</p>
<p>而且，美国司法部（DOJ）正在调查联合健康在其医疗保险优势计费实践中的潜在刑事问题。管理层似乎对其计费实践在法律范围内充满信心，并正在配合司法部的调查。公司还启动了对其政策和程序的第三方审查。</p>
<p>联合健康仍然是美国最大的健康保险公司，因此拥有定价权。公司在财务上似乎也仍然稳健。管理层对 16 美元调整后每股收益的预期显然可能被低估。</p>
<p>尽管公司在资产负债表上有相当多的债务，但它也产生足够的经营收益和现金流来谨慎管理债务。公司的股息收益率约为 2.9%，考虑到联合健康过去 12 个月的自由现金流收益率接近 9%，股息支付似乎很容易管理。</p>
<p>当然，仍然存在可能继续伤害业务的风险。美国的医疗趋势似乎每年都在恶化，可能会继续影响该行业和公司。更持久的通货膨胀和司法部的调查是其他风险。</p>
<p>但华尔街一些最有才华的投资者显然认为这些风险在今年的大幅抛售后已经反映在股价中。联合健康集团的交易价格约为未来收益预期的 19 倍。这低于过去两年半的平均水平，并且是基于预期收益显著低于正常水平，至少自 2022 年以来如此。</p>
<p>虽然控制 “聪明资金” 的专业投资者非常擅长他们的工作，但他们当然也是人，因此会犯很多错误。此外，SEC 的文件并不总能显示投资者头寸的真实情况，这就是为什么投资者不应该盲目跟随聪明资金，而需要进行自己的尽职调查。</p>
<p>尽管如此，考虑到联合健康的资产负债表强度、在保险市场的领先地位以及大幅抛售，股票的风险回报前景是有利的。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

联合健康

<p>一些华尔街顶级亿万富翁和对冲基金正在大举投资联合健康集团，尽管近期股价下跌，他们仍将其视为一种不对称的投资机会。沃伦·巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦和大卫·泰珀的阿帕卢萨管理公司等知名投资者显著增加了他们的持股。尽管联合健康面临着医疗成本上升和司法部调查等挑战，但其强劲的财务状况和定价能力暗示着复苏的潜力。该股票的估值低于历史平均水平，这表明精英投资者认为风险已经反映在当前价格中</p>

<p>While the market is full of varying perspectives from many different investors, the &#34;smart money&#34; is still held in high regard. By smart money, I mean professional investors, many of whom run their own funds, have decades of investment experience, and can show long-term returns to back it up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管市场上有许多不同投资者的各种观点，但 “聪明资金” 仍然备受推崇。这里所说的聪明资金是指专业投资者，他们中的许多人管理自己的基金，拥有数十年的投资经验，并且能够展示长期的回报以支持他们的观点。</p>
</div><p>Just like the market, the pros rarely agree on individual stocks. That's why when you do see a group of elite hedge funds and billionaires piling into a stock, it could be a strong indicator.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就像市场一样，专业人士在个别股票上很少达成一致。因此，当你看到一群精英对冲基金和亿万富翁涌入某只股票时，这可能是一个强烈的指标。</p>
</div><p><strong>UnitedHealth Group</strong>(UNH 1.34%) has seen its stock get crushed this year, for myriad reasons. But while it continued to sell off intensely in the second quarter of the year, some of Wall Street's most prominent hedge funds and billionaires began piling into the name. They clearly think they have found an asymmetric opportunity, meaning they view the stock at a level where the potential upside far exceeds potential downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>联合健康集团</strong>（UNH 1.34%）今年的股票遭遇重创，原因多种多样。但尽管在今年第二季度继续大幅抛售，一些华尔街最知名的对冲基金和亿万富翁开始涌入该股票。他们显然认为找到了一个不对称的机会，也就是说，他们认为该股票的潜在上涨远远超过潜在下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Buffett and other billionaires are in</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特和其他亿万富翁正在投资</h2>
</div><p>UnitedHealth got a big jolt recently after Warren Buffett's <strong>B</strong> <strong>erkshire Hathaway</strong> disclosed that it held a position worth over $1.5 billion at the end of the second quarter. Buffett and his team are value investors at their core, seeking out undervalued stocks that can pay off over a longer time frame. But it wasn't just Buffett who got in; a whole group of hedge fund investors bought shares as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联合健康最近获得了巨大的推动，因为沃伦·巴菲特的 <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> 披露在第二季度末持有超过 15 亿美元的头寸。巴菲特及其团队本质上是价值投资者，寻找那些被低估的股票，这些股票可以在更长的时间框架内获得回报。但不仅仅是巴菲特在投资；一整群对冲基金投资者也购买了该股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Mjk1NjIvcGVvcGxlLXRhbGtpbmcuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829562%2Fpeople-talking.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p><strong>Appaloosa Management</strong>, run by the billionaire investor David Tepper, increased its stake by 1,300%, from 175,000 shares in the first quarter to 2.45 million in the second quarter. The position is valued at over $764 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由亿万富翁投资者大卫·泰珀（David Tepper）管理的 <strong>Appaloosa Management</strong> 将其持股增加了 1300%，从第一季度的 175,000 股增至第二季度的 245 万股。该头寸的价值超过 7.64 亿美元。</p>
</div><p><strong>Scion Asset Management</strong>, run by Michael Burry, who was featured in the film <em>The Big Short</em>, bought $12 million of the stock in the second quarter, as well as 350,000 long call options. Call options are contracts that give the investor the right (but not the obligation) to purchase a stock at a specific price before or by a certain date. Each call option is worth 100 shares and if the market price of a stock exceeds what's referred to as the strike price of a call option before or by a certain date, the investor will make money. Buying call options is a bet on a stock price rising and therefore a sign of optimism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由在电影《大空头》中出现的迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）管理的 <strong>Scion Asset Management</strong> 在第二季度购买了 1200 万美元的股票，以及 35 万份长期看涨期权。看涨期权是给予投资者在特定价格之前或在特定日期之前购买股票的权利（但不是义务）的合约。每份看涨期权的价值为 100 股，如果股票的市场价格在特定日期之前超过看涨期权的行使价格，投资者将获利。购买看涨期权是对股票价格上涨的押注，因此是乐观的迹象。</p>
</div><p><strong>Lone Pine Capital</strong>, run by the billionaire Stephen Mandel Jr., purchased over 1.69 million shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由亿万富翁斯蒂芬·曼德尔（Stephen Mandel Jr.）管理的 <strong>Lone Pine Capital</strong> 购买了超过 169 万股。</p>
</div><p><strong>Renaissance Technologies</strong>, run by Peter Brown, bought roughly 1.35 million shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由彼得·布朗（Peter Brown）管理的 <strong>Renaissance Technologies</strong> 购买了大约 135 万股。</p>
</div><p>While funds were definitely selling UnitedHealth as well in the second quarter, it's not every day you see funds led by some of the most successful and storied investors on Wall Street all buy shares in the same quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然在第二季度也有基金抛售联合健康，但并不是每天都能看到一些华尔街最成功和最有声望的投资者在同一季度购买同一只股票。</p>
</div><h2>Near-term challenges may be overshadowing the core business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>短期挑战可能掩盖核心业务</h2>
</div><p>UnitedHealth has certainly faced challenges this year. Medical costs have come in billions of dollars higher than expected, as sectorwide trends including expensive healthcare, higher utilization, pricey subscription drugs, and an aging population all created strong headwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联合健康今年确实面临挑战。医疗成本比预期高出数十亿美元，整个行业的趋势，包括昂贵的医疗保健、更高的利用率、价格高昂的处方药和老龄化人口，都造成了强大的逆风。</p>
</div><p>This is expected to significantly depress the company's earnings this year. Management is guiding for &#34;at least $16&#34; of adjusted earnings per share (EPS), down from about $27.66 last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这预计将显著压低公司今年的收益。管理层预计调整后的每股收益（EPS）“至少为 16 美元”，低于去年的约 27.66 美元。</p>
</div><p>And the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is investigating UnitedHealth in a potential criminal matter for its Medicare Advantage billing practices. Management seems confident that its billing practices are within the law and is cooperating with the DOJ. And the company has launched third-party reviews of its policies and procedures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且，美国司法部（DOJ）正在调查联合健康在其医疗保险优势计费实践中的潜在刑事问题。管理层似乎对其计费实践在法律范围内充满信心，并正在配合司法部的调查。公司还启动了对其政策和程序的第三方审查。</p>
</div><p>UnitedHealth is still the largest health insurer in the U.S. and therefore has pricing power. The company still seems to be on solid footing financially as well. Management's guidance for $16 adjusted EPS certainly could prove to be low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联合健康仍然是美国最大的健康保险公司，因此拥有定价权。公司在财务上似乎也仍然稳健。管理层对 16 美元调整后每股收益的预期显然可能被低估。</p>
</div><p>While the company has a good amount of debt on its balance sheet, it also generates enough operating earnings and cash flow to manage the debt prudently. The company's dividend yield is about 2.9%, and the dividend payout seems easily manageable considering that UnitedHealth's trailing-12-month free cash flow yield is close to 9%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管公司在资产负债表上有相当多的债务，但它也产生足够的经营收益和现金流来谨慎管理债务。公司的股息收益率约为 2.9%，考虑到联合健康过去 12 个月的自由现金流收益率接近 9%，股息支付似乎很容易管理。</p>
</div><p>There are certainly risks that could continue to hurt the business. U.S. medical trends seem to be getting worse every year, and they could continue to hit the sector and the company. More persistent inflation and the DOJ's investigation are other risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，仍然存在可能继续伤害业务的风险。美国的医疗趋势似乎每年都在恶化，可能会继续影响该行业和公司。更持久的通货膨胀和司法部的调查是其他风险。</p>
</div><p>But a group of some of the most talented investors on Wall Street clearly seem to think those risks were baked into the stock price after the massive sell-off this year. UnitedHealth Group trades at about 19 times forward earnings estimates. That's below the average seen over the last two and a half years and is based on expected earnings that are significantly lower than normal, at least since 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但华尔街一些最有才华的投资者显然认为这些风险在今年的大幅抛售后已经反映在股价中。联合健康集团的交易价格约为未来收益预期的 19 倍。这低于过去两年半的平均水平，并且是基于预期收益显著低于正常水平，至少自 2022 年以来如此。</p>
</div><p>While professional investors controlling the &#34;smart money&#34; are very good at what they do, they are of course human and therefore make plenty of mistakes. Additionally, SEC filings don't always show the true nature of an investor's position, which is why investors shouldn't just follow the smart money blindly, and need to do their own due diligence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然控制 “聪明资金” 的专业投资者非常擅长他们的工作，但他们当然也是人，因此会犯很多错误。此外，SEC 的文件并不总能显示投资者头寸的真实情况，这就是为什么投资者不应该盲目跟随聪明资金，而需要进行自己的尽职调查。</p>
</div><p>That said, given UnitedHealth's balance sheet strength, position at the top of the insurance market, and the big sell-off, the risk-reward proposition on the stock is favorable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，考虑到联合健康的资产负债表强度、在保险市场的领先地位以及大幅抛售，股票的风险回报前景是有利的。</p>
</div>

Some of Wall Street's Most Prominent Billionaires and Hedge Funds Think They Have Found an Asymmetric Opportunity

- 多位顶级对冲基金和亿万富翁开始增持 UnitedHealth Group 股票。  
- 巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦在第二季度持有超过 15 亿美元的股份。  
- 尽管面临挑战，投资者认为该股的风险回报比仍然有利。  

华尔街的一些知名亿万富翁和对冲基金认为他们找到了一个不对称的投资机会