<p>仅仅 20 年前，能源和工业巨头 <strong>埃克森美孚</strong> 和 <strong>通用电气</strong> 是按市值计算的全球最有价值公司，市值分别为 3920 亿美元和 3750 亿美元。在过去的二十年中，发生了范式转变，科技公司引领了这一领域。</p>
<p>榜单上的公司无需多加介绍。人工智能芯片制造商 <strong>英伟达</strong> 以 4.3 万亿美元位居榜首，今年多次创下历史新高。云计算和软件专家 <strong>微软</strong> 也接近新的历史高点，市值为 3.8 万亿美元。作为这三大科技公司的最后一员，iPhone 制造商 <strong>苹果</strong> 的市值为 3.4 万亿美元。</p>
<p>以 2.4 万亿美元的市值来看，搜索和云计算巨头 <strong>字母表</strong>（GOOGL 1.27%）（GOOG 1.29%）似乎注定要快速加入 3 万亿美元俱乐部。市场主导地位、快速增长以及人工智能（AI）的不确定性组合应该为该公司提供加入这一独特社群所需的助力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAxNzUvYS1idXNpbmVzcy1wZXJzb24tbG9va2luZy1hdC1jaGFydHMtb24tYS1jb21wdXRlci13aXRoLWxpZ2h0LXJlZmxlY3Rpbmctb2ZmLXRoZWlyLWdsYXNzZXMuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAxNzUvYS1idXNpbmVzcy1wZXJzb24tbG9va2luZy1hdC1jaGFydHMtb24tYS1jb21wdXRlci13aXRoLWxpZ2h0LXJlZmxlY3Rpbmctb2ZmLXRoZWlyLWdsYXNzZXMuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>法律困境</h2>
<p>我认为有必要提及一个显而易见的问题。在过去的几年里，<strong>字母表</strong> 面临着法律泥潭。该公司卷入了几起诉讼，指控其在数字广告和在线搜索市场中垄断。这些案件的裁决对谷歌母公司不利，法院正在权衡适当的补救措施。预计本月晚些时候将作出决定。</p>
<p>最严厉的补救措施可能是拆分公司，这让一些投资者感到担忧。然而，华尔街的一些人认为，如果发生这种情况，股东实际上可能会受益。D.A. Davidson 分析师 Gil Luria 计算出，在 “各部分总和” 的估值中，字母表的价值可能超过 3.7 万亿美元，较其当前市值增长 52%。这表明拆分并不一定是最坏的结果。</p>
<h2>日常运营</h2>
<p>随着这些案件接近尾声，投资者开始关注公司的未来——未来看起来光明。在第二季度，字母表的收入增长了 14%，达到了 964 亿美元，得益于强劲的广告和稳健的云计算增长。</p>
<p>尽管估计有所不同，但谷歌一直是无可争议的互联网搜索领导者，最近根据互联网统计聚合器 StatCounter 的数据显示，控制了全球搜索市场的 90%。该公司持续的创新和搜索算法的不断改进帮助其保持领先。此外，关于人工智能可能使传统搜索过时的担忧被夸大了。虽然谷歌确实面临挑战，但其 AI 概述可能会继续与传统搜索共存，为用户提供快速答案和更深入的探讨。</p>
<p>字母表长期以来一直是数字广告的领导者和关键参与者，主要依靠其谷歌搜索和 YouTube 流媒体视频服务。该公司还拥有九款月活跃用户超过 10 亿的产品，这些产品为其广告提供了渠道。根据 eMarketer 汇编的数据，2024 年，谷歌预计将占美国数字广告收入的 26%。作为对比，其最接近的竞争对手 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 仅占 21%，而第三名 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 占 14%。尽管竞争加剧，但预计谷歌在未来几年将继续保持主导地位。</p>
<p>字母表在云计算领域也是领导者。谷歌云是 “三大” 云基础设施服务提供商之一。根据 Canalys 提供的数据，该公司在第一季度控制了大约 10% 的市场份额。它的增长速度也很快，年同比收入增长 31%。</p>
<p>管理层指出，字母表的 AI 产品正在推动谷歌云的增长，市场对我们全面的 AI 产品组合有 “显著需求”。谷歌的 Gemini 系列先进的大型语言模型（LLMs）在行业中仍然处于领先地位。</p>
<h2>通往 3 万亿美元的道路</h2>
<p>字母表目前的市值为 2.4 万亿美元，这意味着其股价需要大约上涨 23% 才能达到 3 万亿美元。根据华尔街的预测，字母表预计在 2025 年将产生 3940 亿美元的收入，使其前瞻市盈率（P/S）约为 6。如果其 P/S 保持不变，字母表每年需要将收入增长到大约 4850 亿美元，以支持 3 万亿美元的市值。</p>
<p>华尔街目前预测字母表在未来五年内的年收入增长约为 11%。如果公司能够达到这一可实现的基准，它可能在 2028 年尽早实现 3 万亿美元的市值。然而，字母表在超越华尔街预期方面有着悠久的记录，这让我有信心预测它可能会更早实现。此外，值得注意的是，字母表在过去十年中季度收入增长了 425%，因此华尔街的预测可能过于保守。</p>
<p>此外，字母表目前的市盈率（P/E）为 21，相较于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的 30 倍有显著折扣。法律的不确定性为那些计划持有 5 到 10 年的精明投资者提供了非常有吸引力的入场点。这就是为什么我预测字母表将很快获得 3 万亿美元俱乐部的会员资格。</p>

英伟达

苹果

<p>Alphabet 目前的市值为 2.4 万亿美元，预计到 2028 年将加入 3 万亿美元俱乐部，这得益于广告和云服务的强劲增长。尽管面临关于垄断指控的法律挑战，分析师认为拆分可能会提升股东价值。预计到 2025 年，Alphabet 的收入将达到 3940 亿美元，年均增长率稳定在 11%，考虑到其超出预期的历史，Alphabet 实现 3 万亿美元市值的前景似乎是可行的</p>

<p>It was just 20 years ago that energy and industrial stalwarts <strong>ExxonMobil</strong> and <strong>General Electric</strong> were the world's most valuable companies when measured by market cap, with values of $392 billion and $375 billion, respectively. In the two decades since, there's been a paradigm shift, and technology leads the field.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅仅 20 年前，能源和工业巨头 <strong>埃克森美孚</strong> 和 <strong>通用电气</strong> 是按市值计算的全球最有价值公司，市值分别为 3920 亿美元和 3750 亿美元。在过去的二十年中，发生了范式转变，科技公司引领了这一领域。</p>
</div><p>The companies topping the list need little introduction. AI chipmaker <strong>Nvidia</strong> heads the pack at $4.3 trillion as of this writing, hitting record highs multiple times this year. Cloud and software specialist <strong>Microsoft</strong> is also within striking distance of a new record high, worth $3.8 trillion. Rounding out this tech triad is iPhone maker <strong>Apple</strong> at $3.4 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>榜单上的公司无需多加介绍。人工智能芯片制造商 <strong>英伟达</strong> 以 4.3 万亿美元位居榜首，今年多次创下历史新高。云计算和软件专家 <strong>微软</strong> 也接近新的历史高点，市值为 3.8 万亿美元。作为这三大科技公司的最后一员，iPhone 制造商 <strong>苹果</strong> 的市值为 3.4 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>With a market cap of $2.4 trillion, it seems inevitable that search and cloud titan <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL 1.27%)(GOOG 1.29%) is on the fast track for membership in the $3 trillion club. A combination of market domination, speedy growth, and the wildcard of artificial intelligence (AI) should provide the tailwinds the company needs to join this exclusive society.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 2.4 万亿美元的市值来看，搜索和云计算巨头 <strong>字母表</strong>（GOOGL 1.27%）（GOOG 1.29%）似乎注定要快速加入 3 万亿美元俱乐部。市场主导地位、快速增长以及人工智能（AI）的不确定性组合应该为该公司提供加入这一独特社群所需的助力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAxNzUvYS1idXNpbmVzcy1wZXJzb24tbG9va2luZy1hdC1jaGFydHMtb24tYS1jb21wdXRlci13aXRoLWxpZ2h0LXJlZmxlY3Rpbmctb2ZmLXRoZWlyLWdsYXNzZXMuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830175%2Fa-business-person-looking-at-charts-on-a-computer-with-light-reflecting-off-their-glasses.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The legal conundrum</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>法律困境</h2>
</div><p>I think it's important to address the elephant in the room. The past couple of years have been a legal quagmire for Alphabet. The company has been embroiled in several court cases alleging that it held a monopoly in the digital advertising and online search markets. Those cases were decided against the Google parent, and the courts are weighing the appropriate remedies. A decision is expected later this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为有必要提及一个显而易见的问题。在过去的几年里，<strong>字母表</strong> 面临着法律泥潭。该公司卷入了几起诉讼，指控其在数字广告和在线搜索市场中垄断。这些案件的裁决对谷歌母公司不利，法院正在权衡适当的补救措施。预计本月晚些时候将作出决定。</p>
</div><p>The most severe remedy would likely be a breakup of the company, which rightfully has some investors concerned. However, some on Wall Street believe that shareholders could actually <em>benefit</em> if that were to occur. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria calculated that, in a &#34;sum of the parts&#34; valuation, Alphabet could be worth more than $3.7 trillion, representing a 52% increase over its current market capitalization. This suggests a breakup isn't necessarily the worst-case scenario.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最严厉的补救措施可能是拆分公司，这让一些投资者感到担忧。然而，华尔街的一些人认为，如果发生这种情况，股东实际上可能会受益。D.A. Davidson 分析师 Gil Luria 计算出，在 “各部分总和” 的估值中，字母表的价值可能超过 3.7 万亿美元，较其当前市值增长 52%。这表明拆分并不一定是最坏的结果。</p>
</div><h2>The day-to-day</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日常运营</h2>
</div><p>With these cases near a conclusion, investors are beginning to focus on the company's future -- and the future looks bright. In the second quarter, Alphabet generated revenue that grew 14% to $96.4 billion, fueled by strong advertising and robust cloud growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着这些案件接近尾声，投资者开始关注公司的未来——未来看起来光明。在第二季度，字母表的收入增长了 14%，达到了 964 亿美元，得益于强劲的广告和稳健的云计算增长。</p>
</div><p>While estimates vary, Google has been the undisputed internet search leader, recently controlling 90% of the worldwide search market, according to internet statistics aggregator StatCounter. The company's consistent innovation and ongoing improvement of its search algorithms have helped keep it ahead of the pack. Furthermore, fears that AI may render traditional search obsolete are overblown. While Google certainly faces challenges, its AI Overviews will likely continue to coexist alongside traditional search, providing users with both quick-hit answers and deeper dives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管估计有所不同，但谷歌一直是无可争议的互联网搜索领导者，最近根据互联网统计聚合器 StatCounter 的数据显示，控制了全球搜索市场的 90%。该公司持续的创新和搜索算法的不断改进帮助其保持领先。此外，关于人工智能可能使传统搜索过时的担忧被夸大了。虽然谷歌确实面临挑战，但其 AI 概述可能会继续与传统搜索共存，为用户提供快速答案和更深入的探讨。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet has long been a leader and key player in digital advertising, driven by its Google Search and YouTube streaming video services. The company also boasts nine products that sport 1 billion monthly users (or more), which act as a funnel for its ads. In 2024, Google captured an estimated 26% of U.S digital advertising revenue, according to data compiled by eMarketer. For context, its closest competitor, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, garnered just 21%, while third-place <strong>Amazon</strong> accounted for 14%. While competition is heating up, Google is expected to remain dominant for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表长期以来一直是数字广告的领导者和关键参与者，主要依靠其谷歌搜索和 YouTube 流媒体视频服务。该公司还拥有九款月活跃用户超过 10 亿的产品，这些产品为其广告提供了渠道。根据 eMarketer 汇编的数据，2024 年，谷歌预计将占美国数字广告收入的 26%。作为对比，其最接近的竞争对手 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 仅占 21%，而第三名 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 占 14%。尽管竞争加剧，但预计谷歌在未来几年将继续保持主导地位。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet is also a leader in cloud computing. Google Cloud is one of the &#34;Big Three&#34; cloud infrastructure service providers. The company controlled roughly 10% of the market in the first quarter, according to data supplied by Canalys. It is also growing at a brisk pace, with year-over-year revenue growth of 31%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表在云计算领域也是领导者。谷歌云是 “三大” 云基础设施服务提供商之一。根据 Canalys 提供的数据，该公司在第一季度控制了大约 10% 的市场份额。它的增长速度也很快，年同比收入增长 31%。</p>
</div><p>Management noted that Alphabet's AI offerings are fueling growth for Google Cloud, with &#34;significant demand for our comprehensive AI product portfolio.&#34; Google's Gemini family of advanced large language models (LLMs) remains among the best in the industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层指出，字母表的 AI 产品正在推动谷歌云的增长，市场对我们全面的 AI 产品组合有 “显著需求”。谷歌的 Gemini 系列先进的大型语言模型（LLMs）在行业中仍然处于领先地位。</p>
</div><h2>The path to $3 trillion</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>通往 3 万亿美元的道路</h2>
</div><p>Alphabet currently boasts a market cap of $2.4 trillion, which means it will take stock price gains of roughly 23% to drive its value to $3 trillion. According to Wall Street, Alphabet is expected to generate revenue of $394 billion in 2025, giving it a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of roughly 6. Assuming its P/S remains constant, Alphabet would have to grow its revenue to roughly $485 billion annually to support a $3 trillion market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>字母表目前的市值为 2.4 万亿美元，这意味着其股价需要大约上涨 23% 才能达到 3 万亿美元。根据华尔街的预测，字母表预计在 2025 年将产生 3940 亿美元的收入，使其前瞻市盈率（P/S）约为 6。如果其 P/S 保持不变，字母表每年需要将收入增长到大约 4850 亿美元，以支持 3 万亿美元的市值。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street is currently forecasting revenue growth for Alphabet of about 11% annually over the next five years. If the company can meet that achievable benchmark, it <em>could</em> achieve a $3 trillion market cap as soon as 2028. However, Alphabet has a long track record of exceeding Wall Street's expectations, giving me confidence to predict it will likely happen sooner. It's also worth noting that Alphabet has grown its quarterly revenue by 425% over the past decade, so Wall Street could be conservative in its forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街目前预测字母表在未来五年内的年收入增长约为 11%。如果公司能够达到这一可实现的基准，它可能在 2028 年尽早实现 3 万亿美元的市值。然而，字母表在超越华尔街预期方面有着悠久的记录，这让我有信心预测它可能会更早实现。此外，值得注意的是，字母表在过去十年中季度收入增长了 425%，因此华尔街的预测可能过于保守。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Alphabet currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21, a significant discount compared to the multiple of 30 for the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>. The legal uncertainty is providing a very attractive entry point for shrewd investors who plan to hold for the next five to 10 years. That's why I predict Alphabet will earn is membership in the $3 trillion club in short order.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，字母表目前的市盈率（P/E）为 21，相较于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的 30 倍有显著折扣。法律的不确定性为那些计划持有 5 到 10 年的精明投资者提供了非常有吸引力的入场点。这就是为什么我预测字母表将很快获得 3 万亿美元俱乐部的会员资格。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Unstoppable Stock Will Join Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple in the $3 Trillion Club Before 2028

- 过去 20 年，科技公司如 Nvidia、Microsoft 和 Apple 市值大幅上升。  
- Alphabet 面临法律挑战，但其广告和云业务持续增长。  
- 预计 Alphabet 将在 2028 年前实现 3 万亿美元市值。

预测：这只不可阻挡的股票将在 2028 年前加入英伟达、微软和苹果的 3 万亿美元市值俱乐部