<p>在每个季度结束后，管理超过 1 亿美元的投资公司需要向证券交易委员会（SEC）提交 13F 表格。这些文件记录了投资基金在最近一个季度内买入和卖出的股票，为投资者提供了 “聪明资金” 寻找价值和增长的方向。</p>
<p>近年来，亿万富翁投资经理 Stanley Druckenmiller（杜克斯家族办公室）因承认自己过早退出半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 而受到关注，他称自己的决定是一个 “重大错误”。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ5MjMxOTg4NC04LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ5MjMxOTg4NC04LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>自那时以来，Druckenmiller 重新进入了芯片领域，这次他投资了人工智能（AI）基础设施繁荣的一个关键受益者，而不是像 Nvidia、<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 或 <strong>Broadcom</strong> 这样的常规选择。</p>
<p>在过去一年中，Duquesne 在代工专家 <strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 0.64%）上建立了稳固的持仓。在第二季度，Druckenmiller 将其公司在台积电的股份增加了 28%——使其总持仓约达到 765,000 股。</p>
<p>让我们来分析一下是什么让台积电成为如此引人注目的 AI 芯片股票，并评估现在是否是跟随 Druckenmiller 的好机会。</p>
<h2>台积电全面开花，且...</h2>
<p>下图突出显示了台积电在 AI 革命期间的收入和毛利率趋势。台积电在全球代工市场的估计市场份额为 68%，其运营水平远高于 <strong>三星</strong> 或 <strong>英特尔</strong> 等竞争对手——这使得公司能够对其服务行使相当大的定价权。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f2d6f3a75b1bc91809cf1a55b8cf6514.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f2d6f3a75b1bc91809cf1a55b8cf6514.png"/></p>
<p>TSM 收入（季度）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<h2>...其势头并未减弱</h2>
<p>乍一看，投资者可能会担心台积电的急剧收入增长和扩大的利润率即将达到顶峰。但数据显示情况并非如此。</p>
<p>企业在 AI 基础设施上的支出正在加速，主要由云计算巨头 <strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>微软</strong> 推动，这些公司正在进行历史性的资本支出（capex）狂潮，以获取下一代数据中心所需的 GPU 和网络设备。而不仅仅是云巨头，<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>苹果</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 也在大力投资，以推动在机器人技术、自动驾驶和消费电子方面的雄心。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5f9abda8169974d55201fa3684625d3c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="524" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5f9abda8169974d55201fa3684625d3c.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 资本支出（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>总体而言，这种支出是 GPU 需求的一个代理。在幕后，这对台积电来说是一个巨大的顺风。台积电是负责为 Nvidia、AMD 和许多其他公司制造这些先进芯片的代工厂。</p>
<p>虽然 Nvidia 和 AMD 占据了大部分头条新闻，但台积电实际上可能在芯片领域提供了最持久的增长前景。在许多方面，该公司代表了全球 AI 基础设施建设的长期看涨期权。</p>
<h2>台积电股票值得买吗？</h2>
<p>对台积电股票的估值有点棘手。与半导体领域的许多同行一样，该公司近年来经历了相当大的估值扩张。从简单的市盈率（P/E）或前瞻市盈率（forward P/E）来看，这只股票显然看起来并不便宜。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ab86484ecf619de62f497622c6e1c183.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ab86484ecf619de62f497622c6e1c183.png"/></p>
<p>TSM 市盈率数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>但深入挖掘，另一种故事浮现。台积电的 PEG 比率远低于 1——这表明该公司相对于其未来增长潜力可能被低估。这正是像 Druckenmiller 这样的投资者可能试图利用的机会——在增长与价值交汇处的罕见机会。</p>
<p>对于长期投资者来说，我认为台积电是未来几年值得购买和持有的芯片股票。它可能不会占据头条，但在支撑 AI 芯片时代的基础设施革命中，它扮演着重要的支持角色。</p>

台积电

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>亿万富翁投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller）已将其在台积电（TSMC）的持股增加了 28%，目前持有约 765,000 股。台积电在人工智能半导体市场中占据关键地位，受益于企业在人工智能基础设施上的支出增加。尽管对估值存在担忧，台积电的 PEG 比率表明，相较于其增长潜力，它可能被低估，这使其成为人工智能芯片领域一个有吸引力的长期投资机会</p>

<p>Following the end of each quarter, investment firms that manage over $100 million are required to file a form 13F with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). These filings document the stocks that investment funds bought and sold during the most recent quarter -- providing investors with an idea of where &#34;smart money&#34; is looking for value and growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在每个季度结束后，管理超过 1 亿美元的投资公司需要向证券交易委员会（SEC）提交 13F 表格。这些文件记录了投资基金在最近一个季度内买入和卖出的股票，为投资者提供了 “聪明资金” 寻找价值和增长的方向。</p>
</div><p>In recent years, billionaire money manager Stanley Druckenmiller of the Duquesne Family Office came into the spotlight after the investor admitted he exited semiconductor powerhouse <strong>Nvidia</strong> far too early -- calling his decision a &#34;big mistake.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年来，亿万富翁投资经理 Stanley Druckenmiller（杜克斯家族办公室）因承认自己过早退出半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 而受到关注，他称自己的决定是一个 “重大错误”。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ5MjMxOTg4NC04LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830716%2Fgettyimages-1492319884-8.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Since then, Druckenmiller has reentered the chip landscape -- this time plowing into a key beneficiary of the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom beyond the usual suspects like Nvidia, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>, or <strong>Broadcom</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那时以来，Druckenmiller 重新进入了芯片领域，这次他投资了人工智能（AI）基础设施繁荣的一个关键受益者，而不是像 Nvidia、<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 或 <strong>Broadcom</strong> 这样的常规选择。</p>
</div><p>Over the past year, Duquesne has built a solid position in foundry specialist <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 0.64%). During Q2, Druckenmiller increased his firm's stake in Taiwan Semi by 28% -- bringing its total exposure to roughly 765,000 shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一年中，Duquesne 在代工专家 <strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 0.64%）上建立了稳固的持仓。在第二季度，Druckenmiller 将其公司在台积电的股份增加了 28%——使其总持仓约达到 765,000 股。</p>
</div><p>Let's unpack what makes TSMC such a compelling AI chip stock, and assess if now is a good opportunity for you to follow Druckenmiller's lead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们来分析一下是什么让台积电成为如此引人注目的 AI 芯片股票，并评估现在是否是跟随 Druckenmiller 的好机会。</p>
</div><h2>Taiwan Semi is rolling on all cylinders, and...</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台积电全面开花，且...</h2>
</div><p>The chart below highlights revenue and gross profit margin trends throughout the AI revolution for TSMC. With an estimated 68% share of the global foundry market, Taiwan Semi is operating on a level far above rivals like <strong>Samsung</strong> or <strong>Intel</strong> -- giving the company the ability to exercise substantial pricing power for its services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下图突出显示了台积电在 AI 革命期间的收入和毛利率趋势。台积电在全球代工市场的估计市场份额为 68%，其运营水平远高于 <strong>三星</strong> 或 <strong>英特尔</strong> 等竞争对手——这使得公司能够对其服务行使相当大的定价权。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f2d6f3a75b1bc91809cf1a55b8cf6514.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f2d6f3a75b1bc91809cf1a55b8cf6514.png"/></p>
<p>TSM Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSM 收入（季度）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>...its momentum isn't slowing down</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>...其势头并未减弱</h2>
</div><p>At first glance, investors might worry that TSMC's steep revenue growth and expanding profit margins are nearing a peak. But the data suggests otherwise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乍一看，投资者可能会担心台积电的急剧收入增长和扩大的利润率即将达到顶峰。但数据显示情况并非如此。</p>
</div><p>Enterprise spending on AI infrastructure is accelerating, led by cloud hyperscalers <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Microsoft</strong>, which are in the midst of a historic capital expenditure (capex) spree to acquire GPUs and networking equipment for next-generation data centers. And it's not just the cloud giants. <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, <strong>Apple</strong>, and <strong>Tesla</strong> are also investing heavily to advance ambitions in robotics, autonomous driving, and consumer electronics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>企业在 AI 基础设施上的支出正在加速，主要由云计算巨头 <strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>微软</strong> 推动，这些公司正在进行历史性的资本支出（capex）狂潮，以获取下一代数据中心所需的 GPU 和网络设备。而不仅仅是云巨头，<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>苹果</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 也在大力投资，以推动在机器人技术、自动驾驶和消费电子方面的雄心。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5f9abda8169974d55201fa3684625d3c.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5f9abda8169974d55201fa3684625d3c.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Capital Expenditures (TTM) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 资本支出（TTM）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Collectively, this spending acts as a proxy for GPU demand. Behind the scenes, this is an enormous tailwind for Taiwan Semi -- the foundry responsible for manufacturing these advanced chipsets for Nvidia, AMD, and many others.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，这种支出是 GPU 需求的一个代理。在幕后，这对台积电来说是一个巨大的顺风。台积电是负责为 Nvidia、AMD 和许多其他公司制造这些先进芯片的代工厂。</p>
</div><p>While Nvidia and AMD capture most of the headline news, TSMC may actually offer the most durable growth prospects in the chip realm. In many ways, the company represents a long-term call option for the global buildout of AI infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 Nvidia 和 AMD 占据了大部分头条新闻，但台积电实际上可能在芯片领域提供了最持久的增长前景。在许多方面，该公司代表了全球 AI 基础设施建设的长期看涨期权。</p>
</div><h2>Is TSMC stock a buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台积电股票值得买吗？</h2>
</div><p>Valuing TSMC stock is a bit tricky. Like many of peers in the semiconductor landscape, the company has witnessed considerable valuation expansion in recent years. On a simple price-to-earnings (P/E) or forward P/E basis, the stock certainly doesn't look like a bargain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对台积电股票的估值有点棘手。与半导体领域的许多同行一样，该公司近年来经历了相当大的估值扩张。从简单的市盈率（P/E）或前瞻市盈率（forward P/E）来看，这只股票显然看起来并不便宜。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ab86484ecf619de62f497622c6e1c183.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ab86484ecf619de62f497622c6e1c183.png"/></p>
<p>TSM PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSM 市盈率数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>But dig deeper, and a different story emerges. Taiwan Semiconductor trades at a PEG ratio well-below 1 -- suggesting the company may actually be undervalued relative to its future growth potential. That's the kind of setup investors like Druckenmiller might be trying to capitalize on -- a rare opportunity at the intersection of growth and value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但深入挖掘，另一种故事浮现。台积电的 PEG 比率远低于 1——这表明该公司相对于其未来增长潜力可能被低估。这正是像 Druckenmiller 这样的投资者可能试图利用的机会——在增长与价值交汇处的罕见机会。</p>
</div><p>For long-term investors, I see TSMC as a no-brainer chip stock to buy and hold over the next several years. It may not command the spotlight, but it's playing a supporting role in the infrastructure revolution that underpins the AI chip era.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于长期投资者来说，我认为台积电是未来几年值得购买和持有的芯片股票。它可能不会占据头条，但在支撑 AI 芯片时代的基础设施革命中，它扮演着重要的支持角色。</p>
</div>

Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller Just Increased Duquesne's Stake in This Monster Artificial Intelligence (AI) Semiconductor Stock (Hint: It's Not Nvidia)

- 投资公司需向 SEC 提交 13F 表格，披露股票买卖情况。  
- 斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒重返半导体领域，增持台积电股份 28%。  
- 台积电在 AI 基础设施中扮演重要角色，未来增长潜力被低估。  

亿万富翁斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒刚刚增加了杜克斯在这个庞大的人工智能（AI）半导体股票中的持股（提示：不是英伟达）