<p>包括 <strong>比特币</strong>(BTC -1.47%) 和 <strong>以太坊</strong>(ETH -2.84%) 在内的许多市场顶级加密货币在过去一年中创下了历史新高。这一看涨的狂潮是由新批准的比特币和以太坊现货价格 ETF 推动的，这吸引了更多的机构和零售投资者；利率下降为投机性投资带来了顺风；以及特朗普政府更为友好的加密政策。美元和其他法定货币的贬值进一步放大了这些收益。</p>
<p>但随着加密市场再次升温，投资者是否应该为另一个加密寒冬做好准备？在过去十年中，加密市场已经经历了三次崩溃——分别是在 2014 年、2018 年和 2022 年——所以可能又要面临一次下滑。让我们权衡一下市场的看涨和看跌情况，以便做出决定。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzMDIvZGlnaXRhbC1tb25leS1jdWJlLXBsYWNlZC1vbi1hLWJsb2NrY2hhaW4uanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzMDIvZGlnaXRhbC1tb25leS1jdWJlLXBsYWNlZC1vbi1hLWJsb2NrY2hhaW4uanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>为什么看涨者预计加密货币将继续上涨</h2>
<p>看涨者预计，随着利率下降、法定货币走软，以及像比特币和以太坊这样的 “蓝筹” 加密货币被视为 “数字黄金”，加密价格将继续上涨。过去一年中，机构对其现货价格 ETF 的大量流入支持了这一看涨论点。</p>
<p>随着越来越多的机构投资者、公司和国家积累比特币，它应该会被更广泛地用于主流支付。其他加密货币，尤其是稳定币，应该会从向数字原生支付的转变中受益。更多的现实资产也可能在这些区块链上进行代币化，以实现安全交易。</p>
<p>像以太坊这样的权益证明（PoS）区块链——支持用于开发去中心化应用（dApps）、非同质化代币（NFT）和其他加密资产的智能合约——应该会吸引更多开发者。该生态系统的增长应该会挑战中心化应用商店，同时稳定其基础加密货币的价格。像比特币这样的工作量证明（PoW）区块链，由于需要挖矿，将继续因其稀缺性而被重视。</p>
<p>随着这一进程的发展，金融监管机构应该会为交易和使用加密货币提供更清晰的规则。这种清晰度可能会引发更大的机构投资。长期的地缘政治冲突和宏观逆风也可能使其成为有吸引力的避险选择。</p>
<p>最后，历史不一定要重演。过去十年的三次加密寒冬主要是由于技术故障造成的，这淘汰了较弱的代币和交易所。</p>
<p>当时最大的比特币交易所 Mt. Gox 的崩溃引发了 2014 年的加密崩溃。2018 年的崩溃发生在首次代币发行（ICO）泡沫破裂后，导致全球监管的打击。2022 年的崩溃应归咎于利率上升以及几起高调的失败（Terra/LUNA、Three Arrows Capital、Celsius 和 FTX）损害了市场的声誉。</p>
<p>如今，加密市场由像 <strong>Coinbase</strong>(COIN -1.20%) 这样的稳定交易所主导。ICO 市场现在比过去更加严格监管，投资者通常不再热衷于购买炒作驱动的迷因币。这就是为什么 <strong>柴犬币</strong>(SHIB -1.25%) 的价格在比特币和以太坊上涨时，今年下跌了超过 40%。</p>
<p>因此，利率是加密市场唯一持久的逆风。美联储尚未在 2025 年前降低基准利率，但大多数分析师预计到年底至少会有一到两次降息。如果发生这种情况，顶级加密货币——以及股市——应该会更高。</p>
<h2>对加密货币的看跌论点是什么？</h2>
<p>看跌者预计，利率高企、监管趋严以及对能源密集型挖矿方法（尤其是比特币和其他 PoW 代币）的反对将再次抑制加密货币市场。他们还警告说，市场崩溃可能会使机构投资者远离比特币、以太坊和其他加密货币的现货价格 ETF。</p>
<p>此外，随着面向开发者的 PoS 区块链的扩展，重大安全故障的风险也在增加。如果发生这种情况，开发者可能会对像以太坊这样的去中心化平台望而却步——这种放缓将降低其基础代币的价值。</p>
<h2>投资者应该有多担心？</h2>
<p>我相信，加密货币的长期看涨论点仍然比看跌论点更强。利率应该会下降，法定货币应该会走弱，蓝筹加密货币应该会成为黄金和其他商品的有吸引力的替代品。因此，即使市场将保持波动，未来几年可能不会再次崩溃。</p>

ETHE

<p>加密货币市场在比特币和以太坊的引领下，因新批准的 ETF 和有利政策等因素达到了历史新高。然而，市场过去曾经历过下跌，潜在崩盘的担忧依然存在。看涨者认为，利率下降和机构采用增加将支撑价格，而看跌者则警告监管挑战和能源问题。尽管市场波动性较大，但长期前景依然乐观，预计将会降息，加密货币将成为传统资产的可行替代品</p>

<p>Many of the market's top cryptocurrencies, including <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC -1.47%) and <strong>Ethereum</strong>(ETH -2.84%), set record highs over the past year. That bullish stampede was driven by the newly approved spot price ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which brought in more institutional and retail investors; lower interest rates, which generated tailwinds for speculative investments; and the Trump administration's more crypto-friendly policies. The devaluation of the U.S. dollar and other fiat currencies amplified those gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包括 <strong>比特币</strong>(BTC -1.47%) 和 <strong>以太坊</strong>(ETH -2.84%) 在内的许多市场顶级加密货币在过去一年中创下了历史新高。这一看涨的狂潮是由新批准的比特币和以太坊现货价格 ETF 推动的，这吸引了更多的机构和零售投资者；利率下降为投机性投资带来了顺风；以及特朗普政府更为友好的加密政策。美元和其他法定货币的贬值进一步放大了这些收益。</p>
</div><p>But as the crypto market heats up again, should investors be bracing for another crypto winter? The crypto market has already crashed three times over the past decade -- in 2014, 2018, and 2022 -- so it might be due for another downturn. Let's weigh the bull and bear cases for the market to decide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着加密市场再次升温，投资者是否应该为另一个加密寒冬做好准备？在过去十年中，加密市场已经经历了三次崩溃——分别是在 2014 年、2018 年和 2022 年——所以可能又要面临一次下滑。让我们权衡一下市场的看涨和看跌情况，以便做出决定。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzMDIvZGlnaXRhbC1tb25leS1jdWJlLXBsYWNlZC1vbi1hLWJsb2NrY2hhaW4uanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830302%2Fdigital-money-cube-placed-on-a-blockchain.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why the bulls expect cryptocurrencies to keep rising</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么看涨者预计加密货币将继续上涨</h2>
</div><p>The bulls expect crypto prices to keep rising as interest rates decline, fiat currencies soften, and &#34;blue chip&#34; cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether are adopted as &#34;digital gold.&#34; The big institutional inflows into their spot price ETFs over the past year support that bullish thesis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看涨者预计，随着利率下降、法定货币走软，以及像比特币和以太坊这样的 “蓝筹” 加密货币被视为 “数字黄金”，加密价格将继续上涨。过去一年中，机构对其现货价格 ETF 的大量流入支持了这一看涨论点。</p>
</div><p>As more institutional investors, companies, and countries accumulate Bitcoin, it should be more widely used for mainstream payments. Other cryptocurrencies, especially stablecoins, should benefit from that shift toward digitally native payments. More real-world assets could also be tokenized on those blockchains for secure transactions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着越来越多的机构投资者、公司和国家积累比特币，它应该会被更广泛地用于主流支付。其他加密货币，尤其是稳定币，应该会从向数字原生支付的转变中受益。更多的现实资产也可能在这些区块链上进行代币化，以实现安全交易。</p>
</div><p>Proof of stake (PoS) blockchains like Ethereum -- which support the smart contracts used to develop decentralized apps (dApps), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and other crypto assets -- should draw in more developers. The growth of that ecosystem should challenge centralized app stores while stabilizing the prices of their underlying cryptocurrencies. Proof of work (PoW) blockchains like Bitcoin, which need to be mined, will continue to be valued by their scarcity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像以太坊这样的权益证明（PoS）区块链——支持用于开发去中心化应用（dApps）、非同质化代币（NFT）和其他加密资产的智能合约——应该会吸引更多开发者。该生态系统的增长应该会挑战中心化应用商店，同时稳定其基础加密货币的价格。像比特币这样的工作量证明（PoW）区块链，由于需要挖矿，将继续因其稀缺性而被重视。</p>
</div><p>As that happens, financial regulators should provide clearer rules for trading and spending cryptocurrencies. That clarity could spark even bigger institutional investments. Protracted geopolitical conflicts and macro headwinds could also make them appealing safe-haven plays.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着这一进程的发展，金融监管机构应该会为交易和使用加密货币提供更清晰的规则。这种清晰度可能会引发更大的机构投资。长期的地缘政治冲突和宏观逆风也可能使其成为有吸引力的避险选择。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, history doesn't necessarily have to repeat itself. The three crypto winters of the past decade were mainly caused by technical failures, which weeded out the weaker tokens and exchanges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，历史不一定要重演。过去十年的三次加密寒冬主要是由于技术故障造成的，这淘汰了较弱的代币和交易所。</p>
</div><p>The collapse of Mt. Gox, the largest Bitcoin exchange at the time, triggered the 2014 crypto crash. The 2018 crash occurred after the initial coin offering (ICO) bubble burst and sparked a global regulatory crackdown. The 2022 crash should be blamed on both higher interest rates and several high-profile failures (Terra/LUNA, Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, and FTX) that tarnished the market's reputation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当时最大的比特币交易所 Mt. Gox 的崩溃引发了 2014 年的加密崩溃。2018 年的崩溃发生在首次代币发行（ICO）泡沫破裂后，导致全球监管的打击。2022 年的崩溃应归咎于利率上升以及几起高调的失败（Terra/LUNA、Three Arrows Capital、Celsius 和 FTX）损害了市场的声誉。</p>
</div><p>Today, the crypto market is dominated by stable exchanges like <strong>Coinbase</strong>(COIN -1.20%). The ICO market is now much more tightly regulated than it was in the past, and investors are generally less eager to buy hype-driven meme coins. That's why <strong>Shiba Inu</strong>'s (SHIB -1.25%) price declined more than 40% this year as Bitcoin and Ethereum rallied.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，加密市场由像 <strong>Coinbase</strong>(COIN -1.20%) 这样的稳定交易所主导。ICO 市场现在比过去更加严格监管，投资者通常不再热衷于购买炒作驱动的迷因币。这就是为什么 <strong>柴犬币</strong>(SHIB -1.25%) 的价格在比特币和以太坊上涨时，今年下跌了超过 40%。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, interest rates are the only lasting headwind for the crypto market. The Federal Reserve hasn't cut its benchmark rates for 2025, but most analysts expect at least one or two rate cuts by the end of the year. If that happens, the top cryptocurrencies -- and the stock market -- should soar even higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，利率是加密市场唯一持久的逆风。美联储尚未在 2025 年前降低基准利率，但大多数分析师预计到年底至少会有一到两次降息。如果发生这种情况，顶级加密货币——以及股市——应该会更高。</p>
</div><h2>What's the bearish case against cryptocurrencies?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对加密货币的看跌论点是什么？</h2>
</div><p>The bears expect elevated interest rates, tougher regulations, and a backlash against energy-intensive mining methods (especially for Bitcoin and other PoW tokens) to chill the cryptocurrency market again. They also warn that a market crash could drive institutional investors away from the spot price ETFs for Bitcoin, Ether, and other cryptocurrencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看跌者预计，利率高企、监管趋严以及对能源密集型挖矿方法（尤其是比特币和其他 PoW 代币）的反对将再次抑制加密货币市场。他们还警告说，市场崩溃可能会使机构投资者远离比特币、以太坊和其他加密货币的现货价格 ETF。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, as developer-oriented PoS blockchains expand, the risk for a major security failure also increases. If that happens, developers could shy away from decentralized platforms like Ethereum -- and that slowdown would reduce the value of its underlying tokens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，随着面向开发者的 PoS 区块链的扩展，重大安全故障的风险也在增加。如果发生这种情况，开发者可能会对像以太坊这样的去中心化平台望而却步——这种放缓将降低其基础代币的价值。</p>
</div><h2>How worried should investors be?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者应该有多担心？</h2>
</div><p>I believe the bullish long-term case for cryptocurrencies is still stronger than the bearish one. Interest rates should decline, fiat currencies should weaken, and the blue-chip cryptocurrencies should become compelling alternatives to gold and other commodities. So even though the market will stay choppy, it probably won't crash again over the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我相信，加密货币的长期看涨论点仍然比看跌论点更强。利率应该会下降，法定货币应该会走弱，蓝筹加密货币应该会成为黄金和其他商品的有吸引力的替代品。因此，即使市场将保持波动，未来几年可能不会再次崩溃。</p>
</div>

投资者是否应该担心加密货币价格的崩盘？