<p>特朗普任命的美联储官员可能导致货币政策放松的潜力</p>
<p>由于对激进降息的担忧，收益率曲线陡峭化</p>
<p>美国高债务水平可能诱使政府影响美联储政策</p>
<p>作者：达维德·巴布西亚</p>
<p>纽约，8 月 26 日（路透社）——美国债券投资者预计，特朗普总统最新试图控制美联储的举措将压低长期美国债务的价值，因为人们担心过于温和的美国中央银行可能会失去对通胀的控制。</p>
<p>周一晚，特朗普将他与中央银行的斗争推向前所未有的极端，试图解雇理事丽莎·库克，原因是她在加入美联储之前所借的抵押贷款引发了质疑。解雇库克的举动是特朗普自今年重返白宫以来对美联储施加降息压力的持续一部分。</p>
<p>这一举动可能引发一场漫长的法律斗争，但如果解雇库克，特朗普任命的美联储官员将获得董事会多数席位，从而可能影响未来的美联储领导层。</p>
<p>“如果这一举措得以实施，将意味着相对更温和的理事会和联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC），这可能意味着货币政策比必要的更宽松，导致短期收益率降低但长期收益率上升，” 先锋集团美国国债和通胀保护证券负责人约翰·马兹迪耶尔表示。</p>
<p>“这将导致由于通胀预期上升和不确定性增加而提高的期限溢价，” 他说，指的是投资者因持有长期美国债务证券而要求的风险溢价，而不是短期债务。</p>
<p>由于对特朗普对库克的宣布是否成功的不确定性，周二市场反应相对平淡。基准 10 年期国债收益率日内基本持平，约为 4.26%。</p>
<p>然而，随着短期国债收益率因对货币政策即将放松的强烈预期而下降，长期收益率因对激进降息可能导致长期通胀上升的担忧而上升，国债收益率曲线的关键部分陡峭化。收益率在价格下跌时上升。</p>
<p>周二，密切关注的两年期和 10 年期国债收益率的收益率曲线陡峭化，达到自 4 月以来的最高点，而 30 年期收益率与两年期收益率之间的溢价飙升至自 2022 年初以来的最高水平。</p>
<p>BMO 资本市场分析师在周二的一份报告中表示：“我们看到特朗普对美联储独立性的挑战进一步推动（期限）溢价上升并使收益率曲线陡峭化的空间。”</p>
<p>尽管通胀在 2022 年达到 40 年来的最高点后近年来呈下降趋势，但仍高于美联储 2% 的目标，降低了美联储在劳动力市场疲软的情况下激进降息的能力。任何过度的降息都可能引发债券市场的反应，因为投资者会对中央银行的通胀控制能力失去信心。</p>
<p>“债券市场可能会在错误的时机降息时惩罚，” 创新者资本管理首席投资策略师蒂姆·乌尔巴诺维奇表示。</p>
<p>在美国政府债务水平飙升的情况下，对美联储独立性丧失的担忧可能会加剧，此时投资者已经在权衡 “财政主导” 的风险，即保持政府融资便宜的情况超过了对抗通胀的努力。</p>
<p>“如果公共债务高，政府可能会诱惑利用其对中央银行的影响来复苏经济，并获得更多通胀以侵蚀其债务的实际价值，” AXA 首席经济学家吉尔斯·莫埃克表示。</p>
<p>“从长远来看，这将变得适得其反，因为这将导致长期利率上升，” 他说。</p>

<p>特朗普总统试图罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克可能会影响美国国债市场，引发对更温和的美联储和潜在通胀的担忧。分析师预测，如果成功，这可能导致短期收益率下降，但长期收益率上升，从而使收益率曲线变陡。债券市场对在美国高债务水平下进行激进降息持谨慎态度，这可能会引发政府对美联储的影响。投资者担心，过度降息可能会削弱美联储对通胀的控制，导致长期利率上升</p>

<p>Potential for looser monetary policy with Trump’s Fed appointees</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普任命的美联储官员可能导致货币政策放松的潜力</p>
</div><p>Yield curve steepens amid fears of aggressive rate cuts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于对激进降息的担忧，收益率曲线陡峭化</p>
</div><p>High U.S. debt levels may tempt government to influence Fed policy</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国高债务水平可能诱使政府影响美联储政策</p>
</div><p>By Davide Barbuscia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：达维德·巴布西亚</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Aug 26 (Reuters) - U.S. bond investors expect President Donald Trump’s latest attempt to exert control over the Federal Reserve to push down the value of long-dated U.S. debt on concerns that an overly dovish U.S. central bank may lose its grip on inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，8 月 26 日（路透社）——美国债券投资者预计，特朗普总统最新试图控制美联储的举措将压低长期美国债务的价值，因为人们担心过于温和的美国中央银行可能会失去对通胀的控制。</p>
</div><p>Late on Monday, Trump took his battle against the central bank to an unprecedented extreme with his effort to fire Governor Lisa Cook over questions raised over mortgages she took out before she joined the Fed. The bid to remove Cook comes as part of the relentless pressure Trump has put on the Fed to lower interest rates since he returned to the White House this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一晚，特朗普将他与中央银行的斗争推向前所未有的极端，试图解雇理事丽莎·库克，原因是她在加入美联储之前所借的抵押贷款引发了质疑。解雇库克的举动是特朗普自今年重返白宫以来对美联储施加降息压力的持续一部分。</p>
</div><p>The move could kick off a protracted legal battle, but ousting Cook would give Trump’s Fed appointees a board majority that could sway future Fed leadership.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一举动可能引发一场漫长的法律斗争，但如果解雇库克，特朗普任命的美联储官员将获得董事会多数席位，从而可能影响未来的美联储领导层。</p>
</div><p>“Implications if this were to go through would be a relatively more dovish leaning board of governors and FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), which potentially could mean looser-than-necessary monetary policy resulting in lower short-end yields but higher longer-term yields,” said John Madziyire, head of U.S. Treasuries and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities at Vanguard.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果这一举措得以实施，将意味着相对更温和的理事会和联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC），这可能意味着货币政策比必要的更宽松，导致短期收益率降低但长期收益率上升，” 先锋集团美国国债和通胀保护证券负责人约翰·马兹迪耶尔表示。</p>
</div><p>“This will result in higher term premiums on increased inflation expectations and higher uncertainty,” he said, referring to the premium investors demand for the risk of owning long-dated U.S. debt securities rather than short-term ones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这将导致由于通胀预期上升和不确定性增加而提高的期限溢价，” 他说，指的是投资者因持有长期美国债务证券而要求的风险溢价，而不是短期债务。</p>
</div><p>The reaction to Trump’s announcement on Cook was relatively muted on Tuesday due to uncertainty over whether his effort will be successful. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were roughly unchanged day on day at about 4.26%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于对特朗普对库克的宣布是否成功的不确定性，周二市场反应相对平淡。基准 10 年期国债收益率日内基本持平，约为 4.26%。</p>
</div><p>However, key parts of the Treasury yield curve steepened as short-term Treasury yields declined on stronger expectations of an imminent easing in monetary policy, and longer-dated yields rose on concerns that aggressive interest rate cuts could lead to higher long-term inflation. Yields rise when prices fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，随着短期国债收益率因对货币政策即将放松的强烈预期而下降，长期收益率因对激进降息可能导致长期通胀上升的担忧而上升，国债收益率曲线的关键部分陡峭化。收益率在价格下跌时上升。</p>
</div><p>The closely watched yield curve comparing two- and 10-year Treasury yields steepened to its highest since April intraday on Tuesday, while the premium of 30-year yields over two-year yields surged to its highest since early 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二，密切关注的两年期和 10 年期国债收益率的收益率曲线陡峭化，达到自 4 月以来的最高点，而 30 年期收益率与两年期收益率之间的溢价飙升至自 2022 年初以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>“We see further scope for Trump’s challenge to the Fed’s independence to push (the) term premium high and steepen the yield curve,” BMO Capital Markets analysts said in a note on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BMO 资本市场分析师在周二的一份报告中表示：“我们看到特朗普对美联储独立性的挑战进一步推动（期限）溢价上升并使收益率曲线陡峭化的空间。”</p>
</div><p>While inflation has been trending lower in recent years after hitting a 40-year high in 2022, it remains above the Fed’s 2% target, reducing the Fed’s ability to cut rates aggressively despite a weakening in the labor market. Any excessive rate cuts could trigger a bond market response, as investors would lose confidence in the central bank’s inflation-control focus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管通胀在 2022 年达到 40 年来的最高点后近年来呈下降趋势，但仍高于美联储 2% 的目标，降低了美联储在劳动力市场疲软的情况下激进降息的能力。任何过度的降息都可能引发债券市场的反应，因为投资者会对中央银行的通胀控制能力失去信心。</p>
</div><p>“The bond market will likely punish cutting at the wrong time,” said Tim Urbanowicz, chief investment strategist at Innovator Capital Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“债券市场可能会在错误的时机降息时惩罚，” 创新者资本管理首席投资策略师蒂姆·乌尔巴诺维奇表示。</p>
</div><p>Concerns over a loss of Fed independence could be exacerbated by surging U.S. government debt levels, at a time when investors are already weighing the risk of “fiscal dominance,” a scenario where keeping government financing cheap eclipses the fight against inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国政府债务水平飙升的情况下，对美联储独立性丧失的担忧可能会加剧，此时投资者已经在权衡 “财政主导” 的风险，即保持政府融资便宜的情况超过了对抗通胀的努力。</p>
</div><p>“If public debt is high, there’s some temptation by government to use its influence on (the) central bank to revive growth and get a bit more inflation to erode the real value of its debt,” said Gilles Moec, chief economist at AXA.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果公共债务高，政府可能会诱惑利用其对中央银行的影响来复苏经济，并获得更多通胀以侵蚀其债务的实际价值，” AXA 首席经济学家吉尔斯·莫埃克表示。</p>
</div><p>“Down the road this is going to become counterproductive because it will result in higher long-term rates,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“从长远来看，这将变得适得其反，因为这将导致长期利率上升，” 他说。</p>
</div>

Trump's efforts to remove Fed governor set to test Treasury market

- 美国债券投资者担忧特朗普对美联储的控制可能导致长期债务贬值。  
- 特朗普试图解雇美联储理事库克，可能影响未来货币政策。  
- 高债务水平可能促使政府影响美联储以刺激经济。  

特朗普试图罢免美联储理事的努力将对国债市场进行考验