<p>在过去三年中，华尔街上没有什么比人工智能（AI）的崛起更引人注目。赋予软件和系统以人工智能，使其能够在无需人类监督的情况下做出瞬间决策，这是一个数万亿美元的全球机会。</p>
<p>虽然许多公司都从人工智能的发展中受益，但 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 1.10%）目前处于领先地位。自 2022 年底以来，其市值增加了 4 万亿美元，其图形处理单元（GPU）作为推动人工智能加速数据中心决策的 “大脑”。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MDEvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MDEvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：英伟达。</p>
<p>对华尔街和投资者来说，最重要的莫过于能够深入了解英伟达的季度运营结果，这些结果将在今天 8 月 27 日收盘后公布。</p>
<p>尽管华尔街最大的上市公司习惯于轻松超越分析师的共识收入和每股收益（EPS）预期，但还有一个不太被谈论的指标将最终决定英伟达的 2026 财年第二季度运营结果是令人惊叹还是糟糕的消息。</p>
<h2>英伟达的光辉时刻即将到来</h2>
<p>当英伟达在几个小时后揭开 “盖子” 时，华尔街将期待该公司在 2026 财年第二季度实现 460 亿美元的销售额（其财年在 1 月底结束），并每股实现 1.01 美元的 EPS。在之前的四个季度中，英伟达的 EPS 超出了共识预期 0.04 至 0.06 美元。</p>
<p>除了这些头条数字外，还有其他数据和时间表将吸引投资者的关注。</p>
<p>例如，唐纳德·特朗普政府最近给予英伟达向中国出口其 H20 芯片的绿灯，而中国是全球第二大经济体。在乔·拜登政府的最后两年以及特朗普第二任期的前六个月，向中国出口高性能 AI-GPU 及相关设备受到限制。随着这些出口现在重新回到桌面上，投资者将密切关注这将如何影响公司的全年销售指引。</p>
<p>此外，首席执行官黄仁勋的创新时间表也将成为焦点。黄仁勋表示，他打算每年推出一款新的 AI 先进芯片。投资者应该期待关于 2025 年下半年 Blackwell Ultra 出货量的更新，以及 Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra 的开发预测，这两款产品预计将在 2026 年和 2027 年上市。两者都将基于全新的 Vera 处理器。</p>
<p>黄仁勋的电话会议评论也以强调新开发的合作伙伴关系和正在进行的合作而闻名。例如，黄仁勋与全球最大的芯片制造公司 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>（通常称为 “台积电”）建立了紧密的关系，其高带宽内存的封装技术是 AI 加速数据中心的必要条件。英伟达希望增加向中国的新/现有 AI 芯片的生产，与台积电的紧密合作可以实现这一目标。</p>
<p>虽然看起来英伟达的舞台已经搭建好，但还有一个指标在 Blackwell Ultra 更新、最近的合作伙伴关系甚至 2026 财年全年销售指引之上显得尤为重要。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MDEvYWNjb3VudGFudC1iYWxhbmNlLXNoZWV0LWNvcnBvcmF0ZS1pbmNvbWUtc3RhdGVtZW50LWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="465" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MDEvYWNjb3VudGFudC1iYWxhbmNlLXNoZWV0LWNvcnBvcmF0ZS1pbmNvbWUtc3RhdGVtZW50LWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>该是关注毛利率的时候了</h2>
<p>一个可能决定英伟达成败的指标是其公认会计原则（GAAP）毛利率指引。</p>
<p>由于人工智能革命，英伟达的 GAAP 毛利率飙升。在低至中 60% 的范围内徘徊后，其毛利率在 2025 财年第一季度达到了 78.4% 的峰值。这一激增直接反映了对其 Hopper 芯片的需求远远超过供应，使得英伟达能够相对于同行收取 100% 到 300% 的高额溢价。</p>
<p>这种溢价定价能力可能是黄仁勋希望每年推出一款新的 AI-GPU 的主要原因之一。能够保持公司在计算能力上的优势，理论上应该使英伟达有理由对其硬件收取溢价。</p>
<p>但可以合理地认为，AI-GPU 的稀缺性是推动英伟达毛利率飙升的主要因素。缺乏可用产品可能比英伟达拥有更优越的数据中心 GPU 更为重要。</p>
<p>使公司毛利率预测备受关注的是英伟达现在面临的外部和内部竞争的不可否认的加剧。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1addea4465c752d28f5b46406d8b1ff4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1addea4465c752d28f5b46406d8b1ff4.png"/></p>
<p>英伟达的 GAAP 毛利率已经连续四个季度下降。NVDA 毛利率（季度）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>大多数投资者密切关注 <strong>超微半导体</strong>Instinct 系列 AI 加速芯片的开发和生产进展，以及中国华为的 AI 解决方案的推出。然而，对英伟达毛利率的最大威胁可能来自内部。</p>
<p>许多英伟达的主要客户按净销售额计算都是 “七大巨头” 的成员。这些行业领先的企业拥有大量现金流和庞大的数据中心需求，正在为 Hopper 和 Blackwell 芯片花费巨额资金。问题是，这些企业也在内部开发用于其数据中心的 AI-GPU。尽管它们对 Hopper 或 Blackwell 不是外部威胁，但它们成本更低、供应更充足，并且准备占据宝贵的数据中心空间。</p>
<p>还有一个未知因素是，黄仁勋的激进创新周期是否最终会对他的公司造成伤害。每 12 个月推出先进芯片的做法威胁到之前一代 AI-GPU（如 Hopper）的价值迅速贬值。这可能会促使企业推迟升级周期和/或选择成本更低但仍然非常有效的前一代 AI-GPU。这两种选择都会对英伟达的 GAAP 毛利率造成不利影响。</p>
<p>所有这些担忧可能正在我们眼前上演。排除上个季度由于中国 H20 芯片相关费用导致的毛利率大幅下降，该公司的 GAAP 毛利率已经连续四个季度下降。</p>
<p>英伟达的 GAAP 毛利率将向华尔街和投资者透露 AI-GPU 的稀缺性是否仍然存在，以及公司是否保持或预计将保持其溢价定价能力。这是收盘后需要关注的首要运营指标。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达的财报备受期待，华尔街将其毛利率指引视为关键指标。由于人工智能的进步，该公司的市场价值显著上升，但其毛利率已连续四个季度下降。投资者渴望了解最近对中国的出口批准和新芯片开发将如何影响销售指引。英伟达旨在在人工智能 GPU 市场日益激烈的竞争中保持其高端定价能力</p>

<p>Over the past three years, nothing has garnered more attention on Wall Street than the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). Empowering software and systems with AI to make split-second decisions without the need for human oversight is a multitrillion-dollar global opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去三年中，华尔街上没有什么比人工智能（AI）的崛起更引人注目。赋予软件和系统以人工智能，使其能够在无需人类监督的情况下做出瞬间决策，这是一个数万亿美元的全球机会。</p>
</div><p>While a long list of companies has benefited from the evolution of AI, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.10%) currently finds itself atop the pedestal. It's added $4 trillion in market value since the end of 2022, with its graphics processing units (GPUs) acting as the &#34;brains&#34; powering decision-making in AI-accelerated data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然许多公司都从人工智能的发展中受益，但 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 1.10%）目前处于领先地位。自 2022 年底以来，其市值增加了 4 万亿美元，其图形处理单元（GPU）作为推动人工智能加速数据中心决策的 “大脑”。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MDEvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830701%2Fnvidia-voyager-headquarters-artificial-intelligence-gpu-ai-semiconductor.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：英伟达。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps nothing is more important to Wall Street and investors than being able to dive into Nvidia's quarterly operating results, which are due after the closing bell today, Aug. 27.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对华尔街和投资者来说，最重要的莫过于能够深入了解英伟达的季度运营结果，这些结果将在今天 8 月 27 日收盘后公布。</p>
</div><p>Although Wall Street's largest publicly traded company has made it a habit of handily outpacing consensus revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates from analysts, there's a less-talked-about metric that'll ultimately determine if Nvidia's fiscal second-quarter operating results are incredible or terrible news.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管华尔街最大的上市公司习惯于轻松超越分析师的共识收入和每股收益（EPS）预期，但还有一个不太被谈论的指标将最终决定英伟达的 2026 财年第二季度运营结果是令人惊叹还是糟糕的消息。</p>
</div><h2>The stage is set for Nvidia to shine</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的光辉时刻即将到来</h2>
</div><p>When Nvidia lifts the proverbial hood just hours from now, Wall Street will be looking for the company to have generated $46 billion in second-quarter sales for fiscal 2026 (its fiscal year ends in late January), and deliver $1.01 per share in EPS. Nvidia has surpassed consensus EPS projections by $0.04 to $0.06 in each of the previous four quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当英伟达在几个小时后揭开 “盖子” 时，华尔街将期待该公司在 2026 财年第二季度实现 460 亿美元的销售额（其财年在 1 月底结束），并每股实现 1.01 美元的 EPS。在之前的四个季度中，英伟达的 EPS 超出了共识预期 0.04 至 0.06 美元。</p>
</div><p>Beyond these headline numbers, there are other figures and timelines investors will be focusing on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了这些头条数字外，还有其他数据和时间表将吸引投资者的关注。</p>
</div><p>For example, the Donald Trump administration somewhat recently gave Nvidia the green light to export its H20 chip to China, the world's No. 2 economy by gross domestic product. During the final two years and change of the Joe Biden administration, and Trump's first six months in office for his second term, the export of high-powered AI-GPUs and related equipment to China was restricted. With these exports now back on the table, investors will be keen to see how this impacts the company's full-year sales guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，唐纳德·特朗普政府最近给予英伟达向中国出口其 H20 芯片的绿灯，而中国是全球第二大经济体。在乔·拜登政府的最后两年以及特朗普第二任期的前六个月，向中国出口高性能 AI-GPU 及相关设备受到限制。随着这些出口现在重新回到桌面上，投资者将密切关注这将如何影响公司的全年销售指引。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, CEO Jensen Huang's innovation timeline is bound to come into focus. Huang has stated his intent to bring a new AI-advanced chip to market on an annual basis. Investors should expect updates on the ramp up of Blackwell Ultra shipments in the latter-half of 2025, as well as development projections for Vera Rubin and Vera Rubin Ultra, which are believed to be coming to market by 2026 and 2027, respectively. Both will be operating on the all-new Vera processor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，首席执行官黄仁勋的创新时间表也将成为焦点。黄仁勋表示，他打算每年推出一款新的 AI 先进芯片。投资者应该期待关于 2025 年下半年 Blackwell Ultra 出货量的更新，以及 Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra 的开发预测，这两款产品预计将在 2026 年和 2027 年上市。两者都将基于全新的 Vera 处理器。</p>
</div><p>Huang's conference call commentary is also known for highlighting newly developed partnerships and collaborations, as well as those currently in the works. For instance, Huang has built a close-knit relationship with the world's largest chip fabrication company <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong> (commonly known as &#34;TSMC&#34;), whose packaging technology of high-bandwidth memory is a necessity for AI-accelerated data centers. Nvidia would love to increase production of new/existing AI chips to China, and working closely with TSMC can make that happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄仁勋的电话会议评论也以强调新开发的合作伙伴关系和正在进行的合作而闻名。例如，黄仁勋与全球最大的芯片制造公司 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>（通常称为 “台积电”）建立了紧密的关系，其高带宽内存的封装技术是 AI 加速数据中心的必要条件。英伟达希望增加向中国的新/现有 AI 芯片的生产，与台积电的紧密合作可以实现这一目标。</p>
</div><p>While the stage would appear to be set for Nvidia to thrive, there's another metric that stands head-and-shoulders above Blackwell Ultra updates, recent partnerships, and even fiscal 2026 full-year sales guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然看起来英伟达的舞台已经搭建好，但还有一个指标在 Blackwell Ultra 更新、最近的合作伙伴关系甚至 2026 财年全年销售指引之上显得尤为重要。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA3MDEvYWNjb3VudGFudC1iYWxhbmNlLXNoZWV0LWNvcnBvcmF0ZS1pbmNvbWUtc3RhdGVtZW50LWVhcm5pbmdzLWNhbGN1bGF0b3ItZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830701%2Faccountant-balance-sheet-corporate-income-statement-earnings-calculator-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>It's time to shine a light on gross margin</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>该是关注毛利率的时候了</h2>
</div><p>The one metric that has the potential to make or break Nvidia is its generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) gross margin guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个可能决定英伟达成败的指标是其公认会计原则（GAAP）毛利率指引。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's GAAP gross margin has soared thanks to the AI revolution. After hovering in the low-to-mid 60% range, its gross margin catapulted to a peak of 78.4% during the first quarter of fiscal 2025. This spike is a direct reflection of demand for its Hopper chip handily outstripping supply, which allowed Nvidia to charge a hearty premium of 100% to 300% per chip, relative to its peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于人工智能革命，英伟达的 GAAP 毛利率飙升。在低至中 60% 的范围内徘徊后，其毛利率在 2025 财年第一季度达到了 78.4% 的峰值。这一激增直接反映了对其 Hopper 芯片的需求远远超过供应，使得英伟达能够相对于同行收取 100% 到 300% 的高额溢价。</p>
</div><p>This premium pricing power is probably one of the main reasons Jensen Huang wants to bring a new AI-GPU to market on an annual basis. Being able to maintain his company's compute edge should, on paper, afford Nvidia a reason to charge a premium for its hardware.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种溢价定价能力可能是黄仁勋希望每年推出一款新的 AI-GPU 的主要原因之一。能够保持公司在计算能力上的优势，理论上应该使英伟达有理由对其硬件收取溢价。</p>
</div><p>But a solid argument can be made that AI-GPU scarcity has been the primary driver of Nvidia's soaring gross margin. A lack of available product has potentially mattered much more than Nvidia boasting superior data-center GPUs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但可以合理地认为，AI-GPU 的稀缺性是推动英伟达毛利率飙升的主要因素。缺乏可用产品可能比英伟达拥有更优越的数据中心 GPU 更为重要。</p>
</div><p>What puts the company's gross margin forecast squarely in the spotlight is the undeniable ramp in external and internal competition Nvidia is now contending with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使公司毛利率预测备受关注的是英伟达现在面临的外部和内部竞争的不可否认的加剧。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1addea4465c752d28f5b46406d8b1ff4.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1addea4465c752d28f5b46406d8b1ff4.png"/></p>
<p>Nvidia's GAAP gross margin has declined for four consecutive quarters. NVDA Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的 GAAP 毛利率已经连续四个季度下降。NVDA 毛利率（季度）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Most investors are closely following the development and production ramp of <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> Instinct series AI-accelerating chips, as well as the rollout of China-based Huawei's AI solutions. However, the greatest threat to Nvidia's gross margin possibly comes from within.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数投资者密切关注 <strong>超微半导体</strong>Instinct 系列 AI 加速芯片的开发和生产进展，以及中国华为的 AI 解决方案的推出。然而，对英伟达毛利率的最大威胁可能来自内部。</p>
</div><p>Many of Nvidia's top customers by net sales are members of the &#34;Magnificent Seven.&#34; Industry-leading businesses with boatloads of cash flow and mammoth data center needs are spending big bucks on Hopper and Blackwell chips. The problem is these same businesses are also internally developing AI-GPUs for use in their data centers. Though they're not an external threat to Hopper or Blackwell, they're less costly, more readily available, and poised to take up valuable data center real estate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多英伟达的主要客户按净销售额计算都是 “七大巨头” 的成员。这些行业领先的企业拥有大量现金流和庞大的数据中心需求，正在为 Hopper 和 Blackwell 芯片花费巨额资金。问题是，这些企业也在内部开发用于其数据中心的 AI-GPU。尽管它们对 Hopper 或 Blackwell 不是外部威胁，但它们成本更低、供应更充足，并且准备占据宝贵的数据中心空间。</p>
</div><p>There's also the unknown of whether Huang's aggressive innovation cycle will ultimately end up hurting his company. Bringing advanced chips to market every 12 months threatens to rapidly depreciate the value of prior-generation AI-GPUs, such as Hopper. This could encourage businesses to delay upgrade cycles and/or opt for less costly but still very effective prior-generation AI-GPUs. Both decisions would be detrimental to Nvidia's GAAP gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有一个未知因素是，黄仁勋的激进创新周期是否最终会对他的公司造成伤害。每 12 个月推出先进芯片的做法威胁到之前一代 AI-GPU（如 Hopper）的价值迅速贬值。这可能会促使企业推迟升级周期和/或选择成本更低但仍然非常有效的前一代 AI-GPU。这两种选择都会对英伟达的 GAAP 毛利率造成不利影响。</p>
</div><p>All of these fears may be playing out before our very eyes. Excluding the steep drop-off in gross margin during the previous quarter, which was related to a charge on H20 chips for China, the company's GAAP gross margin has fallen for four consecutive quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些担忧可能正在我们眼前上演。排除上个季度由于中国 H20 芯片相关费用导致的毛利率大幅下降，该公司的 GAAP 毛利率已经连续四个季度下降。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's GAAP gross margin will clue Wall Street and investors into whether AI-GPU scarcity still persists, and if the company has maintained, or expects to retain, its premium pricing power. It's the premier operating metric to home in on after the closing bell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的 GAAP 毛利率将向华尔街和投资者透露 AI-GPU 的稀缺性是否仍然存在，以及公司是否保持或预计将保持其溢价定价能力。这是收盘后需要关注的首要运营指标。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Earnings Day Has Arrived, and This Metric Will Determine If It's Incredible or Terrible News (Hint: It's Not Sales or EPS)

- Nvidia 在 2022 年底以来增加了 4 万亿美元市值。  
- 投资者关注其第二季度销售额和每股收益的预期。  
- GAAP 毛利率的变化将影响 Nvidia 的市场竞争力。  

英伟达的财报日已经到来，这项指标将决定这是令人惊喜还是糟糕的消息（提示：不是销售额或每股收益）