<h4><strong>英伟达财报前瞻</strong></h4>
<p>请点击这里查看 <strong>NVIDIA Corp</strong> NVDA 的放大图表。</p>
<p>请注意以下几点：</p>
<ul>
<li>本文讨论的是大局，而非个别股票。NVDA 的图表用于说明这一观点。</li>
<li>图表显示，即使在美联储主席鲍威尔暗示即将降息后，股市大幅上涨，NVDA 股票仍未能进入区域 1（阻力位）。</li>
<li>图表上的成交量显示，周五的上涨并未伴随大量成交。这表明在财报发布前缺乏信心。</li>
<li>图表显示趋势线已被突破。</li>
<li>图表上的相对强弱指数（RSI）显示 NVDA 股票不再超卖。</li>
<li>英伟达将在周三常规交易结束后发布财报。</li>
<li><strong>英伟达财报的私下预期数字高于共识数字。</strong> 私下预期数字是分析师与其最佳客户私下分享的数字。私下预期数字通常与同一分析师为公众发布的共识数字不同。分析师通常只向其最佳客户提供私下预期数字，而不向公众提供。</li>
<li><strong>在我们的分析中，英伟达的财报将是对人工智能反弹的考验。</strong></li>
<li><strong>英特尔公司</strong> INTC 因美国政府将持有约 10% 的股份而上涨。虽然市场热潮未能察觉，但在我们的分析中，这对英特尔是负面的。原因是英特尔之前将从政府的先前项目中获得免费注资，但现在英特尔需要以约 10% 的股份来支付。这对现有股东来说是巨大的稀释。我们已发出信号，建议在 INTC 股票上逐步获利，利用其强势表现。</li>
<li>周五，股市在鲍威尔暗示九月降息后表现得非常乐观。</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<p>在我们的分析中，九月降息的概率现在为 95%。只有在九月的通胀数据显著恶于预期时，降息才可能不会发生。</p>
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>谨慎的投资者应注意以下关键点：
<ul>
<li>目前尚不清楚九月的降息幅度是 25 个基点还是 50 个基点。</li>
<li>目前尚不清楚本轮降息将有多少次。</li>
<li>股市正在预期明年将有五次降息。</li>
<li>通胀继续高于美联储的 2% 目标。</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h4><strong>资金流入中国股票</strong></h4>
<p>随着投资者认为中国在与美国的贸易谈判中占据上风，资金持续流入中国股票。香港恒生指数达到了近四年来的最高水平，而中国的上海综合指数则达到了自 2015 年以来的最高水平。</p>
<p>作为完全披露，内地中国 ETF <strong>Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A</strong> ASHR 和香港 ETF <strong>iShares China Large-Cap ETF</strong> FXI 在我们的投资组合中。</p>
<h4><strong>热钱与聪明资金在股票中的表现</strong></h4>
<p>投资者可以通过了解 SPY 和 QQQ 的资金流动来获得优势。通过了解聪明资金何时购买股票、黄金和石油，投资者可以获得更大的优势。黄金最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>SPDR Gold Trust</strong> (GLD)。白银最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong> (SLV)。石油最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>United States Oil ETF</strong> (USO)。</p>
<h4><strong>比特币</strong></h4>
<p><strong>比特币</strong> BTC/USD 正在经历抛售。<strong>看起来比特币鲸鱼利用鲍威尔讲话引发的零售投资者的热情，在强势中抛售比特币。</strong></p>
<h4><strong>现在该做什么</strong></h4>
<p>考虑继续持有良好的、长期的现有头寸。根据个人风险偏好，考虑由现金或国债、短期战术交易以及短期到中期对冲组成的保护带。这是一种保护自己并同时参与上涨的好方法。</p>
<p>您可以通过将现金添加到对冲中来确定您的保护带。保护的高带适合年长或保守的人。保护的低带适合年轻或激进的人。如果您不进行对冲，总现金水平应高于上述所述，但显著低于现金加对冲的总和。</p>
<p>0% 的保护带将非常看涨，表明全额投资且现金为 0%。100% 的保护带将非常看跌，表明需要通过现金和对冲或激进的卖空进行强有力的保护。</p>
<p><strong>值得提醒的是，如果您没有持有足够的现金，就无法利用即将到来的新机会。</strong> 在调整对冲水平时，考虑调整股票头寸（非 ETF）的部分止损数量；考虑对剩余数量使用更宽的止损，并为高贝塔股票留出更多空间。高贝塔股票是指那些波动幅度大于市场的股票。</p>
<h4><strong>传统 60/40 投资组合</strong></h4>
<p>基于概率的风险回报调整考虑到通胀，目前并不支持长期战略债券配置。</p>
<p>那些希望坚持传统 60% 股票和 40% 债券配置的人，可以考虑仅关注高质量债券和五年期或更短的债券。那些愿意在投资中引入复杂性的投资者，可以考虑在此时将债券 ETF 作为战术头寸，而非战略头寸。</p>
<p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自一位未付的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性的编辑。</em></strong></p>

英伟达

英特尔

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达即将发布的财报被视为人工智能反弹的关键测试，分析师的私下预期数字超过了市场共识。尽管在美联储主席鲍威尔暗示降息后，股市近期出现了上涨，但英伟达的股票并未显示出强劲的成交量或信心。同时，英特尔面临稀释，因为美国政府获得了 10% 的股份，这促使市场建议部分获利了结。投资者被建议保持长期持仓，同时考虑保护性现金或对冲，特别是在持续的通胀和潜在的降息背景下</p>

<h4><strong>Nvidia Earnings Ahead</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>英伟达财报前瞻</strong></h4>
</div><p>Please click here for an enlarged chart of <strong>NVIDIA Corp</strong> NVDA.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请点击这里查看 <strong>NVIDIA Corp</strong> NVDA 的放大图表。</p>
</div><p>Note the following:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请注意以下几点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NVDA is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that even after the large move up in the stock market after Fed Chair Powell hinted a rate cut is ahead, NVDA stock was not able to enter zone 1 (resistance).</li>
<li>Volume on the chart shows that the move up on Friday was not on heavy volume. This indicates a lack of conviction ahead of earnings.</li>
<li>The chart shows the trendline has been broken.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows NVDA stock is no longer oversold.</li>
<li>Nvidia reports earnings after the regular session close on Wednesday.</li>
<li><strong>Whisper numbers for Nvidia earnings are higher than the consensus numbers.</strong> Whisper numbers are the numbers analysts privately share with their best clients. Whisper numbers are often different from consensus numbers published by the same analysts for public consumption. Analysts typically provide whisper numbers only to their best clients, and not the public.</li>
<li><strong>In our analysis, Nvidia earnings will be a test of the AI rally.</strong></li>
<li><strong>Intel Corp</strong> INTC has run up on the news that the U.S. government is taking about a 10% stake. The momo crowd is oblivious, but in our analysis, this is negative for Intel. The reason is Intel was previously going to get a free infusion from prior government programs but now Intel is paying for it with about 10% of the company. <strong>This is a massive dilution for existing shareholders.</strong> We have given a signal to take more partial profits on INTC stock, taking advantage of the strength.</li>
<li>The stock market was euphoric on Friday after Powell hinted at a rate cut in September.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>本文讨论的是大局，而非个别股票。NVDA 的图表用于说明这一观点。</li>
<li>图表显示，即使在美联储主席鲍威尔暗示即将降息后，股市大幅上涨，NVDA 股票仍未能进入区域 1（阻力位）。</li>
<li>图表上的成交量显示，周五的上涨并未伴随大量成交。这表明在财报发布前缺乏信心。</li>
<li>图表显示趋势线已被突破。</li>
<li>图表上的相对强弱指数（RSI）显示 NVDA 股票不再超卖。</li>
<li>英伟达将在周三常规交易结束后发布财报。</li>
<li><strong>英伟达财报的私下预期数字高于共识数字。</strong> 私下预期数字是分析师与其最佳客户私下分享的数字。私下预期数字通常与同一分析师为公众发布的共识数字不同。分析师通常只向其最佳客户提供私下预期数字，而不向公众提供。</li>
<li><strong>在我们的分析中，英伟达的财报将是对人工智能反弹的考验。</strong></li>
<li><strong>英特尔公司</strong> INTC 因美国政府将持有约 10% 的股份而上涨。虽然市场热潮未能察觉，但在我们的分析中，这对英特尔是负面的。原因是英特尔之前将从政府的先前项目中获得免费注资，但现在英特尔需要以约 10% 的股份来支付。这对现有股东来说是巨大的稀释。我们已发出信号，建议在 INTC 股票上逐步获利，利用其强势表现。</li>
<li>周五，股市在鲍威尔暗示九月降息后表现得非常乐观。</li>
</ul>
</div><blockquote>
<p>In our analysis, there is now a 95% rate cut in September. Only if the September inflation data is significantly worse than expectations, the rate cut may not happen.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>在我们的分析中，九月降息的概率现在为 95%。只有在九月的通胀数据显著恶于预期时，降息才可能不会发生。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><ul>
<li>Prudent investors should note the following key points:
<ul>
<li>There is no clarity if the September rate cut will be 25 bps or 50 bps.</li>
<li>There is no clarity as to how many rate cuts there will be in this cycle.</li>
<li>The stock market is discounting five rate cuts going into next year.</li>
<li>Inflation continues to run higher than the Fed's 2% target..</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>谨慎的投资者应注意以下关键点：
<ul>
<li>目前尚不清楚九月的降息幅度是 25 个基点还是 50 个基点。</li>
<li>目前尚不清楚本轮降息将有多少次。</li>
<li>股市正在预期明年将有五次降息。</li>
<li>通胀继续高于美联储的 2% 目标。</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</div><h4><strong>Money Flowing Into Chinese Stocks</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>资金流入中国股票</strong></h4>
</div><p>Money continues to move into Chinese stocks as investors perceive that China has gotten the upper hand in trade negotiations with the U.S. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng reached its highest level in nearly four years, and China’s Shanghai Composite hit the highest level since 2015.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着投资者认为中国在与美国的贸易谈判中占据上风，资金持续流入中国股票。香港恒生指数达到了近四年来的最高水平，而中国的上海综合指数则达到了自 2015 年以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>As full disclosure, mainland China ETF <strong>Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A</strong> ASHR and Hong Kong ETF <strong>iShares China Large-Cap ETF</strong> FXI are in our portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为完全披露，内地中国 ETF <strong>Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A</strong> ASHR 和香港 ETF <strong>iShares China Large-Cap ETF</strong> FXI 在我们的投资组合中。</p>
</div><h4><strong>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>热钱与聪明资金在股票中的表现</strong></h4>
</div><p>Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is <strong>SPDR Gold Trust</strong> (GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong>(SLV). The most popular ETF for oil is <strong>United States Oil ETF</strong> (USO).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者可以通过了解 SPY 和 QQQ 的资金流动来获得优势。通过了解聪明资金何时购买股票、黄金和石油，投资者可以获得更大的优势。黄金最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>SPDR Gold Trust</strong> (GLD)。白银最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>iShares Silver Trust</strong> (SLV)。石油最受欢迎的 ETF 是 <strong>United States Oil ETF</strong> (USO)。</p>
</div><h4><strong>Bitcoin</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>比特币</strong></h4>
</div><p><strong>Bitcoin</strong> BTC/USD is seeing selling. <strong>It appears bitcoin whales took advantage of the euphoria among retail investors caused by Powell's speech to sell bitcoin into the strength.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特币</strong> BTC/USD 正在经历抛售。<strong>看起来比特币鲸鱼利用鲍威尔讲话引发的零售投资者的热情，在强势中抛售比特币。</strong></p>
</div><h4><strong>What To Do Now</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>现在该做什么</strong></h4>
</div><p>Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑继续持有良好的、长期的现有头寸。根据个人风险偏好，考虑由现金或国债、短期战术交易以及短期到中期对冲组成的保护带。这是一种保护自己并同时参与上涨的好方法。</p>
</div><p>You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>您可以通过将现金添加到对冲中来确定您的保护带。保护的高带适合年长或保守的人。保护的低带适合年轻或激进的人。如果您不进行对冲，总现金水平应高于上述所述，但显著低于现金加对冲的总和。</p>
</div><p>A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0% 的保护带将非常看涨，表明全额投资且现金为 0%。100% 的保护带将非常看跌，表明需要通过现金和对冲或激进的卖空进行强有力的保护。</p>
</div><p><strong>It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.</strong> When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>值得提醒的是，如果您没有持有足够的现金，就无法利用即将到来的新机会。</strong> 在调整对冲水平时，考虑调整股票头寸（非 ETF）的部分止损数量；考虑对剩余数量使用更宽的止损，并为高贝塔股票留出更多空间。高贝塔股票是指那些波动幅度大于市场的股票。</p>
</div><h4><strong>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</strong></h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4><strong>传统 60/40 投资组合</strong></h4>
</div><p>Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于概率的风险回报调整考虑到通胀，目前并不支持长期战略债券配置。</p>
</div><p>Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那些希望坚持传统 60% 股票和 40% 债券配置的人，可以考虑仅关注高质量债券和五年期或更短的债券。那些愿意在投资中引入复杂性的投资者，可以考虑在此时将债券 ETF 作为战术头寸，而非战略头寸。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自一位未付的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性的编辑。</em></strong></p>
</div>

Nvidia Earnings Will Test AI Rally

- Nvidia 股票在即将公布财报前未能突破阻力区，成交量不足。  
- 投资者对中国股票的兴趣上升，香港恒生指数创四年新高。  
- 比特币鲸鱼在市场乐观情绪中抛售，建议持有长期优质资产。  

英伟达的财报将检验人工智能市场的上涨趋势