<p><strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A 1.06%)(BRK.B 0.87%) 在 2016 年第一季度首次购买了 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.52%) 的股票，距今已有九年多。沃伦·巴菲特负责该集团的资本配置决策，他意识到苹果是一个强大且持久的消费品牌。这项投资表现相当不错，因为自 2016 年初以来，这只被称为 “七大奇迹” 的股票上涨了 766%（截至 8 月 26 日）。</p>
<p>然而，奥马哈的先知似乎变得不那么看好。从 2023 年第四季度开始，伯克希尔已出售了 6.35 亿股苹果股票，过去七个季度中有五个季度进行了销售。仅在今年的第二季度，就出售了 2000 万股。目前苹果的持股价值为 640 亿美元，占伯克希尔投资组合的 21.4%。</p>
<p>苹果仍然是巴菲特领导的企业中最大的单一持仓，因为它拥有 2.8 亿股这家科技巨头的股票。但这些近期的举动到底是怎么回事？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA1MjUvYnVmZmV0dC12aWV3LW9mLWxlZnQtc2lkZS1vZi1oaXMtZmFjZS11cC1jbG9zZS5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA1MjUvYnVmZmV0dC12aWV3LW9mLWxlZnQtc2lkZS1vZi1oaXMtZmFjZS11cC1jbG9zZS5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>苹果不是一个显而易见的投资机会</h2>
<p>苹果持仓显著减少的一个可能原因是，这不再是一个稳赚不赔的投资机会。当伯克希尔在近十年前首次开始购买股票时，苹果的股票估值要低得多。如今情况已不再如此，该股票的市盈率（P/E）为 34.6，远高于其过去五年和十年的平均水平。</p>
<p>当然，这是一家世界顶级企业。因此，很容易认为苹果值得这样的估值。然而，巴菲特可能并不认为从这一点出发能够实现强劲的回报。</p>
<p>苹果的增长已经放缓。公平地说，它在第三季度（截至 6 月 28 日）确实实现了 9.6% 的同比收入增长。但这种增速并不可持续。苹果的销售额与三年前的同一时期相比仅增长了 13.4%。在如此高的收入基础上，想要实现有意义的扩张是困难的，同时还要销售已经广泛采用的硬件设备。</p>
<h2>预期潜在的税收变化</h2>
<p>巴菲特在商业和投资界已经领导了数十年。正因如此，加上他卓越的成功，他或许比其他人更能洞察市场形势。苹果股票的出售可能与奥马哈先知对未来税收政策变化的看法有关。</p>
<p>很难预测不同的总统政府将如何改变税法。不过，巴菲特可能确实看到了某些端倪。美国联邦债务高达 36 万亿美元，自大萧条以来急剧上升。而政府的财政赤字也非常庞大。对此趋势似乎没有尽头。</p>
<p>相信税收可能会增加以资助政府是有道理的。目前的企业税率为 21%。从历史角度来看，这个税率极低。此外，资本利得税未来也可能会上升。</p>
<p>在山姆大叔可能要求更多税款之前，提前兑现可观的利润，看起来是巴菲特的明智之举。</p>
<h2>为格雷格·阿贝尔做准备</h2>
<p>伯克希尔一直是股票的净卖方。作为一个在决策过程中优先考虑安全边际的投资者，巴菲特可能不仅关注苹果的市盈率，还关注整体市场的估值。这或许可以解释伯克希尔高达 3440 亿美元的现金头寸。</p>
<p>巴菲特计划在今年年底退休。他可能正在进行这些操作，以便给他的继任者格雷格·阿贝尔更多的财务资源进行操作。苹果无疑是奥马哈先知做出的最佳投资决策。现在他希望阿贝尔能建立自己的遗产。</p>
<p>苹果的股东或许应该深入思考伯克希尔和巴菲特出售苹果的原因。也许现在是跟随这些举动的好时机。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦已减少其在苹果的持股，自 2023 年第四季度以来出售了 6.35 亿股，其中在 2023 年第二季度出售了 2000 万股。目前苹果的持股价值为 640 亿美元，占伯克希尔投资组合的 21.4%。出售的原因包括苹果的市盈率高达 34.6、增长放缓以及未来可能的税收增加。沃伦·巴菲特可能在为他的接班人格雷格·阿贝尔进行布局，因为他准备退休。投资者在评估苹果股票时应考虑这些因素</p>

<p><strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A 1.06%)(BRK.B 0.87%) first purchased shares in <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.52%) more than nine years ago in the first quarter of 2016. Warren Buffett, who oversees capital allocation decisions for the conglomerate, realized that Apple was a powerful and durable consumer brand. That investment has worked out quite well, as the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stock is up 766% since the start of 2016 (as of Aug. 26).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A 1.06%)(BRK.B 0.87%) 在 2016 年第一季度首次购买了 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 0.52%) 的股票，距今已有九年多。沃伦·巴菲特负责该集团的资本配置决策，他意识到苹果是一个强大且持久的消费品牌。这项投资表现相当不错，因为自 2016 年初以来，这只被称为 “七大奇迹” 的股票上涨了 766%（截至 8 月 26 日）。</p>
</div><p>However, the Oracle of Omaha has seemingly become less bullish. Since Q4 2023, Berkshire has sold 635 million shares of Apple, with sales happening in five of the past seven quarters. Just in this year's Q2, 20 million shares were divested. The current Apple stake is valued at $64 billion, representing 21.4% of Berkshire's portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，奥马哈的先知似乎变得不那么看好。从 2023 年第四季度开始，伯克希尔已出售了 6.35 亿股苹果股票，过去七个季度中有五个季度进行了销售。仅在今年的第二季度，就出售了 2000 万股。目前苹果的持股价值为 640 亿美元，占伯克希尔投资组合的 21.4%。</p>
</div><p>Apple remains the largest single position for the Buffett-led business, as it owns 280 million shares of the tech giant. But what's the deal with these recent moves?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果仍然是巴菲特领导的企业中最大的单一持仓，因为它拥有 2.8 亿股这家科技巨头的股票。但这些近期的举动到底是怎么回事？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA1MjUvYnVmZmV0dC12aWV3LW9mLWxlZnQtc2lkZS1vZi1oaXMtZmFjZS11cC1jbG9zZS5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830525%2Fbuffett-view-of-left-side-of-his-face-up-close.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Apple isn't a no-brainer opportunity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果不是一个显而易见的投资机会</h2>
</div><p>One possible reason for the significant reduction in the Apple position could come down to the simple fact that this is no longer a home run investment opportunity. When Berkshire first started buying shares nearly a decade ago, Apple shares traded at a much cheaper valuation. This is no longer the case, with the stock selling for a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.6, well above its trailing five- and 10-year averages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果持仓显著减少的一个可能原因是，这不再是一个稳赚不赔的投资机会。当伯克希尔在近十年前首次开始购买股票时，苹果的股票估值要低得多。如今情况已不再如此，该股票的市盈率（P/E）为 34.6，远高于其过去五年和十年的平均水平。</p>
</div><p>Of course, this is one of the world's greatest businesses. As a result, it's easy to argue that Apple deserves that valuation. However, Buffett probably doesn't see the potential to achieve strong returns from this point forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，这是一家世界顶级企业。因此，很容易认为苹果值得这样的估值。然而，巴菲特可能并不认为从这一点出发能够实现强劲的回报。</p>
</div><p>Apple's growth has slowed. To be fair, it did register a 9.6% year-over-year revenue gain in Q3 (ended June 28). But that pace isn't sustainable. Apple's sales were up just 13.4% from the same period exactly three years ago. It's difficult to expand meaningfully from such a high revenue base, while also selling hardware devices that are already widely adopted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的增长已经放缓。公平地说，它在第三季度（截至 6 月 28 日）确实实现了 9.6% 的同比收入增长。但这种增速并不可持续。苹果的销售额与三年前的同一时期相比仅增长了 13.4%。在如此高的收入基础上，想要实现有意义的扩张是困难的，同时还要销售已经广泛采用的硬件设备。</p>
</div><h2>Anticipating potential tax changes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>预期潜在的税收变化</h2>
</div><p>Buffett has been a leader in the business and investing worlds for decades. Because of this, and demonstrated by his incredible success, he's perhaps in tune with the landscape more than anyone else. The Apple share sales could have something to do with the Oracle of Omaha's view that changes will come to tax policy in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特在商业和投资界已经领导了数十年。正因如此，加上他卓越的成功，他或许比其他人更能洞察市场形势。苹果股票的出售可能与奥马哈先知对未来税收政策变化的看法有关。</p>
</div><p>It's hard to predict how different presidential administrations will alter the tax code. Buffett might be on to something, though. The U.S. federal debt sits at an alarming $36 trillion, as it has soared since the Great Recession. And the government operates with huge fiscal deficits. There is really no end in sight to this trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很难预测不同的总统政府将如何改变税法。不过，巴菲特可能确实看到了某些端倪。美国联邦债务高达 36 万亿美元，自大萧条以来急剧上升。而政府的财政赤字也非常庞大。对此趋势似乎没有尽头。</p>
</div><p>It makes sense to believe that taxes could be increased to fund the government. The current corporate tax rate is 21%. On a historical basis, this is extremely low. Additionally, the capital gains tax could also rise in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相信税收可能会增加以资助政府是有道理的。目前的企业税率为 21%。从历史角度来看，这个税率极低。此外，资本利得税未来也可能会上升。</p>
</div><p>Taking sizable profits off the table before Uncle Sam potentially demands more money looks like a smart move on Buffett's part.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在山姆大叔可能要求更多税款之前，提前兑现可观的利润，看起来是巴菲特的明智之举。</p>
</div><h2>Getting ready for Greg Abel</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为格雷格·阿贝尔做准备</h2>
</div><p>Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks. As someone who prioritizes investing with a margin of safety in his decision-making process, Buffett might not only be concerned about Apple's P/E multiple but also the valuation of the overall market. This could explain Berkshire's monster $344 billion cash position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔一直是股票的净卖方。作为一个在决策过程中优先考虑安全边际的投资者，巴菲特可能不仅关注苹果的市盈率，还关注整体市场的估值。这或许可以解释伯克希尔高达 3440 亿美元的现金头寸。</p>
</div><p>Buffett is set to retire as CEO at the end of this year. He could be making these moves to give his successor, Greg Abel, more financial firepower to play with. Apple is arguably the Oracle of Omaha's best investment decision. Now he wants Abel to build his own legacy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特计划在今年年底退休。他可能正在进行这些操作，以便给他的继任者格雷格·阿贝尔更多的财务资源进行操作。苹果无疑是奥马哈先知做出的最佳投资决策。现在他希望阿贝尔能建立自己的遗产。</p>
</div><p>It might be a good idea for Apple shareholders to think deeply about the reasons Berkshire and Buffett have been selling Apple. Perhaps it's a good time to follow these moves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的股东或许应该深入思考伯克希尔和巴菲特出售苹果的原因。也许现在是跟随这些举动的好时机。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Trims Apple Stake, Again. What's the Deal?

- 伯克希尔·哈撒韦自 2016 年起开始投资苹果，现持有价值 640 亿美元的股份。  
- 自 2023 年第四季度以来，伯克希尔已出售 6.35 亿股苹果，反映出对未来回报的担忧。  
- 投资者应关注伯克希尔减持苹果的原因，可能与税收政策变化有关。  

沃伦·巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦再次减持苹果股份。这背后有什么原因？