<p>投资总是需要权衡。每买入一只股票，就会有另一只股票未被购买。有时，为了购买一只股票，另一只股票被卖掉。</p>
<p>这正是沃伦·巴菲特最近所经历的事情。这位传奇投资者在 2025 年第二季度出售了约 40 亿美元的 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.19%) 股票，并用其中大约 15 亿美元购买了一只被低估的蓝筹股。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzEyMDcvYnVmZmV0dDEyLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzEyMDcvYnVmZmV0dDEyLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>用 iPhone 换保险</h2>
<p>如果你还没有猜到，巴菲特在第二季度购买的蓝筹股是 <strong>联合健康集团</strong>(UNH 2.48%)。从某种意义上说，这位 “奥马哈的先知” 用 iPhone 换来了保险。</p>
<p><strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A 0.66%)(BRK.B 0.63%) 在第二季度的 13-F 文件显示，巴菲特出售了 2000 万股苹果股票。由于该季度苹果的平均价格约为 202 美元，伯克希尔的股票出售总额大约在 40 亿美元左右。</p>
<p>巴菲特用出售约 6.7% 伯克希尔在苹果股份所筹集的资金做了什么？他购买了 12 只股票。其中六笔交易增加了该集团现有的持股，另外六笔则为投资组合带来了新股票。其中最大的一笔交易是联合健康集团。</p>
<p>巴菲特购买了约 504 万股这家健康保险巨头的股票。在第二季度末，这一持仓价值 15.7 亿美元。这相当于每股 311.97 美元，略高于联合健康在该季度后半段的平均股价 303 美元。我们无法确切知道巴菲特为这只健康保险股票支付了多少，但大致在这个平均水平附近似乎是合理的。如果是这样，他在联合健康集团的新持股成本约为 15.3 亿美元。</p>
<h2>巴菲特的可预测举动？</h2>
<p>出售另一部分苹果股票对巴菲特来说是可预测的举动吗？可能是。他在之前六个季度中有四个季度出售了股票。因此，他在第二季度进一步削减伯克希尔在苹果的持仓并不令人感到意外。</p>
<p>另一方面，苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克在 5 月的伯克希尔年度股东大会上坐在观众席中。巴菲特在会议上提到了库克，并公开感谢他为伯克希尔赚了 “比巴菲特自己多得多的钱”。他还提到自己听了苹果最近的季度电话会议，并补充说这是 “我唯一听的投资季度电话会议”。考虑到这些评论，巴菲特在第二季度出售苹果股票可能至少有些令人惊讶。</p>
<p>然而，我认为巴菲特对联合健康集团的大额投资是完全可以预测的。事实上，我在 2025 年 7 月 25 日发表的一篇文章中就预测到了这一点，距离伯克希尔的 13F 监管文件提交还有近三周时间，该文件揭示了其第二季度的交易。</p>
<p>明确来说，我的预测并不需要过多的洞察力或类似诺查丹玛斯的超能力。我的前提是联合健康集团非常适合巴菲特的投资策略。它的保险业务正是这位传奇投资者的强项。公司的财务状况依然强劲。估值也很有吸引力。而且巴菲特过去曾持有过它。</p>
<h2>联合健康集团比苹果更值得购买吗？</h2>
<p>有一种观点认为，巴菲特更明智的选择是继续持有苹果，而不是购买联合健康集团。首先，尽管苹果的股票表现也在负增长，但今年的表现远好于联合健康，并且从长远来看，苹果的表现更为出色。</p>
<p>苹果仍然拥有出色的产品生态系统和高度忠诚的客户基础。公司可能会有关键的增长驱动因素，包括可折叠的 iPhone 和智能眼镜。传言称，苹果可能会收购新兴的人工智能 (AI) 公司 Mistral AI 和/或 Perplexity。CNBC 的乔什·布朗认为，收购 Perplexity 可能会改变苹果的游戏规则——而他并不是唯一持这种观点的人。</p>
<p>然而，我认为联合健康集团在第二季度是巴菲特更好的购买选择，并且可能在短期内仍然是其他投资者更好的购买选择。为什么？我有两个理由：估值和风险水平。</p>
<p>联合健康的市盈率是多年来最低的。苹果的市盈率相对较高，达到了 35.8。</p>
<p>更重要的是，我认为联合健康集团的股票继续低迷的风险非常低。该股今年大幅下跌的主要原因是意外的高医疗成本，尤其是其医疗保险优势计划。这个问题将在明年通过提高保费轻松解决。联合健康面临的另一个挑战是美国司法部的持续调查。这不会轻易（或快速）解决，但该公司在此类调查中有良好的记录，通常能安然度过。</p>
<p>与此同时，苹果在推出新产品时确实面临风险，就像它在 Vision Pro 混合现实耳机和 Apple Intelligence 生成性 AI 功能上的表现一样。公司也可能决定不进行重大收购，或者支付超过投资者预期的价格。</p>
<p>尽管如此，我仍然相信苹果是更值得长期持有的股票。然而，就目前而言，联合健康集团更像是一个稳妥的选择。我怀疑巴菲特对此心知肚明。</p>

苹果

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

<p>沃伦·巴菲特在 2025 年第二季度出售了价值 40 亿美元的苹果股票，使用 15 亿美元购买了 504 万股联合健康集团的股票。这一举动反映了巴菲特重新配置投资的策略，因为他在过去六个季度中有四个季度出售了苹果股票。虽然有人认为继续持有苹果股票可能更明智，但联合健康的吸引人估值和低风险使其成为巴菲特以及其他投资者的有利选择</p>

<p>Investing always requires trade-offs. For every stock bought, another stock goes unbought. And sometimes, another stock was sold to buy a stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资总是需要权衡。每买入一只股票，就会有另一只股票未被购买。有时，为了购买一只股票，另一只股票被卖掉。</p>
</div><p>That's exactly what happened for Warren Buffett recently. The legendary investor sold around $4 billion of <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.19%) stock in the second quarter of 2025 and used roughly $1.5 billion of that amount to buy a beaten-down blue chip stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这正是沃伦·巴菲特最近所经历的事情。这位传奇投资者在 2025 年第二季度出售了约 40 亿美元的 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.19%) 股票，并用其中大约 15 亿美元购买了一只被低估的蓝筹股。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzEyMDcvYnVmZmV0dDEyLXRtZi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831207%2Fbuffett12-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Swapping iPhones for insurance</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>用 iPhone 换保险</h2>
</div><p>If you haven't already guessed, the blue chip stock Buffett bought in Q2 was <strong>UnitedHealth Group</strong>(UNH 2.48%). In a real sense, the &#34;Oracle of Omaha&#34; swapped iPhones for insurance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你还没有猜到，巴菲特在第二季度购买的蓝筹股是 <strong>联合健康集团</strong>(UNH 2.48%)。从某种意义上说，这位 “奥马哈的先知” 用 iPhone 换来了保险。</p>
</div><p><strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>'s (BRK.A 0.66%)(BRK.B 0.63%) 13-F filing for Q2 revealed that Buffett sold 20 million shares of Apple. Since the average price for Apple during the quarter was around $202, Berkshire's sale of the stock totaled in the ballpark of $4 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A 0.66%)(BRK.B 0.63%) 在第二季度的 13-F 文件显示，巴菲特出售了 2000 万股苹果股票。由于该季度苹果的平均价格约为 202 美元，伯克希尔的股票出售总额大约在 40 亿美元左右。</p>
</div><p>What did Buffett do with the money raised from selling roughly 6.7% of Berkshire's stake in Apple? He bought 12 stocks. Six of those purchases added to the conglomerate's existing holdings. The other six brought new stocks into the portfolio. The biggest transaction of the bunch was UnitedHealth Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特用出售约 6.7% 伯克希尔在苹果股份所筹集的资金做了什么？他购买了 12 只股票。其中六笔交易增加了该集团现有的持股，另外六笔则为投资组合带来了新股票。其中最大的一笔交易是联合健康集团。</p>
</div><p>Buffett bought around 5.04 million shares of the health insurance giant. At the end of the second quarter, this position was worth $1.57 billion. That translates to $311.97 per share, which isn't too much higher than UnitedHealth's average share price during the second half of the quarter of $303. We don't know for sure how much Buffett paid for the health insurance stock, but somewhere around that average seems likely. If so, his new stake in UnitedHealth Group cost around $1.53 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特购买了约 504 万股这家健康保险巨头的股票。在第二季度末，这一持仓价值 15.7 亿美元。这相当于每股 311.97 美元，略高于联合健康在该季度后半段的平均股价 303 美元。我们无法确切知道巴菲特为这只健康保险股票支付了多少，但大致在这个平均水平附近似乎是合理的。如果是这样，他在联合健康集团的新持股成本约为 15.3 亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>Predictable moves for Buffett?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特的可预测举动？</h2>
</div><p>Was selling another chunk of Apple a predictable move for Buffett? Probably. He sold shares in four out of six of the previous quarters. It shouldn't have been too shocking that he trimmed Berkshire's position in Apple a little more in Q2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>出售另一部分苹果股票对巴菲特来说是可预测的举动吗？可能是。他在之前六个季度中有四个季度出售了股票。因此，他在第二季度进一步削减伯克希尔在苹果的持仓并不令人感到意外。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, Apple CEO Tim Cook sat in the audience at Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting in May. Buffett recognized Cook in the meeting and publicly thanked him for making &#34;a lot more money&#34; for Berkshire than Buffett himself had. He also mentioned that he listened to Apple's most recent quarterly call, adding that it was &#34;the only investment quarterly call that I listen to.&#34; With those comments in mind, Buffett's Q2 sale of Apple stock might be at least a little surprising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克在 5 月的伯克希尔年度股东大会上坐在观众席中。巴菲特在会议上提到了库克，并公开感谢他为伯克希尔赚了 “比巴菲特自己多得多的钱”。他还提到自己听了苹果最近的季度电话会议，并补充说这是 “我唯一听的投资季度电话会议”。考虑到这些评论，巴菲特在第二季度出售苹果股票可能至少有些令人惊讶。</p>
</div><p>However, I think Buffett's big investment in UnitedHealth Group was completely predictable. In fact, I <em>did</em> predict it in an article published on July 25, 2025, nearly three weeks before Berkshire's 13F regulatory filing was submitted, which revealed its Q2 transactions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我认为巴菲特对联合健康集团的大额投资是完全可以预测的。事实上，我在 2025 年 7 月 25 日发表的一篇文章中就预测到了这一点，距离伯克希尔的 13F 监管文件提交还有近三周时间，该文件揭示了其第二季度的交易。</p>
</div><p>To be clear, my prediction didn't require a tremendous amount of insight or Nostradamus-like psychic powers. My premise was that UnitedHealth Group was an ideal fit for Buffett's playbook. Its insurance business is in the legendary investor's wheelhouse. The company's financials remain strong. The valuation was attractive. And Buffett had even owned it in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>明确来说，我的预测并不需要过多的洞察力或类似诺查丹玛斯的超能力。我的前提是联合健康集团非常适合巴菲特的投资策略。它的保险业务正是这位传奇投资者的强项。公司的财务状况依然强劲。估值也很有吸引力。而且巴菲特过去曾持有过它。</p>
</div><h2>Is UnitedHealth Group a better stock to buy than Apple?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>联合健康集团比苹果更值得购买吗？</h2>
</div><p>There is an argument that the wiser move for Buffett would have been to stick with Apple instead of buying UnitedHealth Group. For one thing, the iPhone maker's stock is performing much better than UnitedHealth's this year (even though it's in negative territory) and has been a much bigger winner over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有一种观点认为，巴菲特更明智的选择是继续持有苹果，而不是购买联合健康集团。首先，尽管苹果的股票表现也在负增长，但今年的表现远好于联合健康，并且从长远来看，苹果的表现更为出色。</p>
</div><p>Apple still has a phenomenal product ecosystem and a highly loyal customer base. The company could have key growth drivers on the way, possibly including a foldable iPhone and smart glasses. Rumors have suggested that Apple could acquire up-and-coming artificial intelligence (AI) companies Mistral AI and/or Perplexity. CNBC's Josh Brown thinks a Perplexity deal could be a game-changer for Apple -- and he isn't alone in that view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果仍然拥有出色的产品生态系统和高度忠诚的客户基础。公司可能会有关键的增长驱动因素，包括可折叠的 iPhone 和智能眼镜。传言称，苹果可能会收购新兴的人工智能 (AI) 公司 Mistral AI 和/或 Perplexity。CNBC 的乔什·布朗认为，收购 Perplexity 可能会改变苹果的游戏规则——而他并不是唯一持这种观点的人。</p>
</div><p>However, I think UnitedHealth Group was a better stock for Buffett to buy in Q2 and probably remains a better stock for other investors to buy now -- at least over the near term. Why? I have two reasons: valuation and risk levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我认为联合健康集团在第二季度是巴菲特更好的购买选择，并且可能在短期内仍然是其他投资者更好的购买选择。为什么？我有两个理由：估值和风险水平。</p>
</div><p>UnitedHealth's price-to-earnings ratio is the lowest it's been in years. Apple's earnings multiple is a relatively high 35.8.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联合健康的市盈率是多年来最低的。苹果的市盈率相对较高，达到了 35.8。</p>
</div><p>More importantly, I think the risk that UnitedHealth Group's shares will remain down in the dumps is very low. The main reason the stock has plunged this year is unexpectedly high medical costs, especially with its Medicare Advantage plans. This issue will be easily resolved with higher premiums that take effect next year. The other challenge for UnitedHealth is an ongoing U.S. Department of Justice investigation. This won't be easily (or quickly) resolved, but the company has a good track record of coming out of such probes largely unscathed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，我认为联合健康集团的股票继续低迷的风险非常低。该股今年大幅下跌的主要原因是意外的高医疗成本，尤其是其医疗保险优势计划。这个问题将在明年通过提高保费轻松解决。联合健康面临的另一个挑战是美国司法部的持续调查。这不会轻易（或快速）解决，但该公司在此类调查中有良好的记录，通常能安然度过。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, there are real risks that Apple will miss the mark with introductions of new products, just as it did with the Vision Pro mixed-reality headset and Apple Intelligence generative AI functionality. The company could also decide against a needle-moving acquisition or pay more than investors like.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，苹果在推出新产品时确实面临风险，就像它在 Vision Pro 混合现实耳机和 Apple Intelligence 生成性 AI 功能上的表现一样。公司也可能决定不进行重大收购，或者支付超过投资者预期的价格。</p>
</div><p>I nonetheless believe that Apple is the better long-term stock to own. However, for right now, UnitedHealth Group is more of a slam dunk. And I suspect Buffett knows it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，我仍然相信苹果是更值得长期持有的股票。然而，就目前而言，联合健康集团更像是一个稳妥的选择。我怀疑巴菲特对此心知肚明。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett Just Sold $4 Billion of Apple Stock. He Used $1.5 Billion of the Money to Buy This Beaten-Down Stock.

- 巴菲特在 2025 年第二季度出售约 40 亿美元的苹果股票。  
- 他用其中约 15 亿美元购买了联合健康集团的股票。  
- 联合健康的估值较低，风险水平也较小。  

沃伦·巴菲特刚刚出售了价值 40 亿美元的苹果股票，并用其中的 15 亿美元购买了这只被严重低估的股票