<p>根据 <strong>瑞银</strong> 分析师的估计，科技巨头们今年将在人工智能（AI）基础设施上花费 3750 亿美元。这个数字明年将攀升至 5000 亿美元。</p>
<p>建设 AI 数据中心的最大支出项目是半导体。<strong>英伟达</strong>（NVIDIA）（NVDA -3.38%）迄今为止是这一支出的最大受益者。其 GPU 在通用 AI 训练和推理方面提供了行业领先的能力。其他 AI 加速器芯片制造商也见证了强劲的销售增长，包括 <strong>博通</strong>（Broadcom）（AVGO -3.70%），该公司制造定制 AI 芯片以及网络芯片，确保数据高效地从一个服务器移动到另一个服务器，尽量减少停机时间。</p>
<p>自 2023 年初以来，博通的股价已上涨超过五倍，目前市值达到 1.4 万亿美元。再经历一年惊人的增长，它很可能进入 2 万亿美元俱乐部。但另一只半导体股票似乎更有可能成为到 2028 年加入这一声望水平的候选者，与英伟达及其他四个俱乐部成员一起。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzEzMzEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYWktY2hpcC1vbi1hLWNpcmN1aXQtYm9hcmQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzEzMzEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYWktY2hpcC1vbi1hLWNpcmN1aXQtYm9hcmQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>博通是一个 2 万亿美元的公司吗？</h2>
<p>博通是一家庞大的公司，业务涵盖硬件和软件，但其 AI 芯片业务目前正引领公司发展。</p>
<p>为此，AI 收入在上个季度同比增长了 46%，达到了 44 亿美元。管理层预计当前季度的 AI 半导体收入将达到 51 亿美元，增长速度加快至约 60%。与 AI 相关的收入现在占博通销售额的约 30%，预计在未来几年将继续增长。</p>
<p>博通去年收购 VMware 是另一个增长驱动因素。这家软件公司现在已完全融入博通的更大业务中，并在向客户推销 VMware Cloud Foundation 方面取得了强劲成功，使企业能够运行自己的私有云。超过 87% 的客户已转向新的订阅，导致年度经常性收入实现两位数增长。</p>
<p>但博通的股票极其昂贵。该股的前瞻市盈率为 45。尽管其 AI 芯片销售增长迅速，并且从 VMware 获得了强劲的利润改善，但重要的是不要忽视博通是一家多么广泛的公司。尽管这两个业务的增长势头强劲，但公司的总收入年增长率仍仅约为 20%。投资者应该预期未来只会有渐进的利润改善，因为它正在扩大 AI 加速器业务。这意味着该业务有望实现强劲的盈利增长，但不足以证明其 45 倍的市盈率。</p>
<p>另一只半导体股票的市盈率要合理得多，并且增长速度同样迅猛。</p>
<h2>预计到 2028 年加入 2 万亿美元俱乐部的半导体巨头</h2>
<p>博通和英伟达都依赖另一家公司，以确保他们能够为 AI 训练和推理制造出世界上最先进的半导体。这家公司是 <strong>台积电</strong>（TSMC）（TSM -3.05%），实际上负责打印和封装这两家公司的设计。几乎每家设计领先芯片的公司都依赖于台积电的技术能力。因此，其半导体制造的市场份额已攀升至超过三分之二。</p>
<p>台积电受益于良性循环，确保其保持和扩大其巨大的市场份额。其技术领先帮助其赢得来自英伟达和博通等公司的大合同。这为其提供了投资扩张产能和研发下一代工艺的资本。因此，它保持了技术领先，同时提供足够的产能以满足日益增长的制造需求。</p>
<p>台积电的领先工艺节点被称为 N2，预计每片硅晶圆的价格将比上一代（N3）高出 66% 的溢价。这比其历史上管理的价格上涨幅度要大得多，但由于公司愿意不惜一切代价获取下一步的功率和能效提升，因此对该工艺的需求强劲。尽管台积电通常在推出新的昂贵节点时会经历毛利率的显著下降，因为初始产量较低，但其当前的定价应能帮助其在未来几年维持毛利率，因为它最终将在明年过渡到更先进的工艺。</p>
<p>管理层预计，从 2024 年到 2029 年，AI 相关收入将平均每年增长中位数的 40%。虽然 AI 芯片仍然是台积电业务中相对较小的一部分，但这应该会为业务带来约 20% 的整体收入增长。随着其逐步提升接下来的两个制造工艺，其保持强劲毛利率的能力应该使其运营收益增长超过 20%。</p>
<p>台积电的股票以 24 倍的预期市盈率交易，远低于其他公司。考虑到该业务可能在低 20% 的范围内实现盈利增长，这对该股票来说是个好价格。如果它能在 2028 年前保持这一市盈率，同时每年实现约 20% 的盈利增长，那么到那时该股票的价值将远超 2 万亿美元。</p>

英伟达

台积电

<p>大型科技公司预计今年将在人工智能基础设施上投资 3750 亿美元，明年将增至 5000 亿美元，其中半导体将是主要开支。英伟达受益显著，而博通的人工智能收入同比增长 46%。尽管增长明显，博通的高市盈率引发了担忧。台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）也有增长潜力，预计 2024 年至 2029 年间与人工智能相关的收入年增长率将达到 40%，支持整体收入约 20% 的增长。TSMC 的定价策略可能有助于在推进制造流程的同时维持利润率</p>

<p>Big tech companies are set to spend $375 billion on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure this year, according to estimates from analysts at <strong>UBS</strong>. That number will climb to $500 billion next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 <strong>瑞银</strong> 分析师的估计，科技巨头们今年将在人工智能（AI）基础设施上花费 3750 亿美元。这个数字明年将攀升至 5000 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The biggest expense item in building out AI data centers is semiconductors. <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -3.38%) has been by far the biggest beneficiary of that spend so far. Its GPUs offer best-in-class capabilities for general AI training and inference. Other AI accelerator chipmakers have also seen strong sales growth, including <strong>Broadcom</strong>(AVGO -3.70%), which makes custom AI chips as well as networking chips, which ensure data moves efficiently from one server to another, keeping downtime to a minimum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>建设 AI 数据中心的最大支出项目是半导体。<strong>英伟达</strong>（NVIDIA）（NVDA -3.38%）迄今为止是这一支出的最大受益者。其 GPU 在通用 AI 训练和推理方面提供了行业领先的能力。其他 AI 加速器芯片制造商也见证了强劲的销售增长，包括 <strong>博通</strong>（Broadcom）（AVGO -3.70%），该公司制造定制 AI 芯片以及网络芯片，确保数据高效地从一个服务器移动到另一个服务器，尽量减少停机时间。</p>
</div><p>Broadcom's stock price has increased more than fivefold since the start of 2023, and the company now sports a market cap of $1.4 trillion. Another year of spectacular growth could easily place it in the $2 trillion club. But another semiconductor stock looks like a more likely candidate to reach that vaunted level, joining Nvidia and the four other members of the club by 2028.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2023 年初以来，博通的股价已上涨超过五倍，目前市值达到 1.4 万亿美元。再经历一年惊人的增长，它很可能进入 2 万亿美元俱乐部。但另一只半导体股票似乎更有可能成为到 2028 年加入这一声望水平的候选者，与英伟达及其他四个俱乐部成员一起。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzEzMzEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtYWktY2hpcC1vbi1hLWNpcmN1aXQtYm9hcmQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831331%2Fgettyimages-ai-chip-on-a-circuit-board.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is Broadcom a $2 trillion company?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>博通是一个 2 万亿美元的公司吗？</h2>
</div><p>Broadcom is a massive company with operations spanning hardware and software, but its AI chips business is currently steering the ship.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>博通是一家庞大的公司，业务涵盖硬件和软件，但其 AI 芯片业务目前正引领公司发展。</p>
</div><p>To that end, AI revenue climbed 46% year over year last quarter to reach $4.4 billion. Management expects the current quarter to produce $5.1 billion in AI semiconductor revenue, accelerating growth to roughly 60%. AI-related revenue now accounts for roughly 30% of Broadcom's sales, and that's set to keep climbing over the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为此，AI 收入在上个季度同比增长了 46%，达到了 44 亿美元。管理层预计当前季度的 AI 半导体收入将达到 51 亿美元，增长速度加快至约 60%。与 AI 相关的收入现在占博通销售额的约 30%，预计在未来几年将继续增长。</p>
</div><p>Broadcom's acquisition of VMware last year is another growth driver. The software company is now fully integrated into Broadcom's larger operations, and it's seen strong success in upselling customers to the VMware Cloud Foundation, enabling enterprises to run their own private clouds. Over 87% of its customers have transitioned to the new subscription, resulting in double-digit growth in annual recurring revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>博通去年收购 VMware 是另一个增长驱动因素。这家软件公司现在已完全融入博通的更大业务中，并在向客户推销 VMware Cloud Foundation 方面取得了强劲成功，使企业能够运行自己的私有云。超过 87% 的客户已转向新的订阅，导致年度经常性收入实现两位数增长。</p>
</div><p>But Broadcom shares are extremely expensive. The stock garners a forward P/E ratio of 45. While its AI chip sales are growing quickly and it's seeing strong margin improvement from VMware, it's important not to lose sight of how broad a company Broadcom is. Despite the stellar growth in those two businesses, the company is still only growing its top line at about 20% year over year. Investors should expect only incremental margin improvements going forward as it scales the AI accelerator business. That means the business is set up for strong earnings growth, but not enough to justify its 45 times earnings multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但博通的股票极其昂贵。该股的前瞻市盈率为 45。尽管其 AI 芯片销售增长迅速，并且从 VMware 获得了强劲的利润改善，但重要的是不要忽视博通是一家多么广泛的公司。尽管这两个业务的增长势头强劲，但公司的总收入年增长率仍仅约为 20%。投资者应该预期未来只会有渐进的利润改善，因为它正在扩大 AI 加速器业务。这意味着该业务有望实现强劲的盈利增长，但不足以证明其 45 倍的市盈率。</p>
</div><p>Another semiconductor stock trades at a much more reasonable multiple, and is growing just as fast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一只半导体股票的市盈率要合理得多，并且增长速度同样迅猛。</p>
</div><h2>The semiconductor giant poised to join the $2 trillion club by 2028</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>预计到 2028 年加入 2 万亿美元俱乐部的半导体巨头</h2>
</div><p>Both Broadcom and Nvidia rely on another company to ensure they can create the most advanced semiconductors in the world for AI training and inference. That company is <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM -3.05%), which actually prints and packages both companies' designs. Almost every company designing leading-edge chips relies on TSMC for its technological capabilities. As a result, its market share of semiconductor manufacturing has climbed to more than two-thirds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>博通和英伟达都依赖另一家公司，以确保他们能够为 AI 训练和推理制造出世界上最先进的半导体。这家公司是 <strong>台积电</strong>（TSMC）（TSM -3.05%），实际上负责打印和封装这两家公司的设计。几乎每家设计领先芯片的公司都依赖于台积电的技术能力。因此，其半导体制造的市场份额已攀升至超过三分之二。</p>
</div><p>TSMC benefits from a virtuous cycle, ensuring it maintains and grows its massive market share. Its technology lead helps it win big contracts from companies like Nvidia and Broadcom. That gives it the capital to invest in expanding capacity and research and development for its next-generation process. As a result, it maintains its technology lead while offering enough capacity to meet the growing demand for manufacturing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电受益于良性循环，确保其保持和扩大其巨大的市场份额。其技术领先帮助其赢得来自英伟达和博通等公司的大合同。这为其提供了投资扩张产能和研发下一代工艺的资本。因此，它保持了技术领先，同时提供足够的产能以满足日益增长的制造需求。</p>
</div><p>TSMC's leading-edge process node, dubbed N2, will reportedly charge a 66% premium per silicon wafer over the previous generation (N3). That's a much bigger step-up in price than it's historically managed, but the demand for the process is strong as companies are willing to spend whatever it takes to access the next bump in power and energy efficiency. While TSMC typically experiences a significant drop off in gross margin as it ramps up a new expensive node with lower initial yields, its current pricing should help it maintain its margins for years to come as it eventually transitions to an even more advanced process next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电的领先工艺节点被称为 N2，预计每片硅晶圆的价格将比上一代（N3）高出 66% 的溢价。这比其历史上管理的价格上涨幅度要大得多，但由于公司愿意不惜一切代价获取下一步的功率和能效提升，因此对该工艺的需求强劲。尽管台积电通常在推出新的昂贵节点时会经历毛利率的显著下降，因为初始产量较低，但其当前的定价应能帮助其在未来几年维持毛利率，因为它最终将在明年过渡到更先进的工艺。</p>
</div><p>Management expects AI-related revenue to average mid-40% growth per year from 2024 through 2029. While AI chips are still a relatively small part of TSMC's business, that should produce overall revenue growth of about 20% for the business. Its ability to maintain a strong gross margin as it ramps up the next two manufacturing processes should allow it to produce operating earnings growth exceeding that 20% mark.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层预计，从 2024 年到 2029 年，AI 相关收入将平均每年增长中位数的 40%。虽然 AI 芯片仍然是台积电业务中相对较小的一部分，但这应该会为业务带来约 20% 的整体收入增长。随着其逐步提升接下来的两个制造工艺，其保持强劲毛利率的能力应该使其运营收益增长超过 20%。</p>
</div><p>TSMC's stock trades at a much more reasonable earnings multiple of 24 times expectations. Considering the business could generate earnings growth in the low 20% range, that's a great price for the stock. If it can maintain that earnings multiple through 2028 while growing earnings at about 20% per year, the stock will be worth well over $2 trillion at that point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电的股票以 24 倍的预期市盈率交易，远低于其他公司。考虑到该业务可能在低 20% 的范围内实现盈利增长，这对该股票来说是个好价格。如果它能在 2028 年前保持这一市盈率，同时每年实现约 20% 的盈利增长，那么到那时该股票的价值将远超 2 万亿美元。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Semiconductor Stock Will Join Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon in the $2 Trillion Club by 2028. (Hint: Not Broadcom)

- 大型科技公司预计今年将在人工智能基础设施上支出 3750 亿美元。  
- Broadcom 的 AI 芯片业务推动其收入同比增长 46%，预计将继续增长。  
- TSMC 预计 AI 相关收入将年均增长 40%，整体收入增长约 20%。  

预测：这家人工智能（AI）半导体公司将在 2028 年加入英伟达、微软、苹果、Alphabet 和亚马逊的 2 万亿美元俱乐部。（提示：不是博通）