<p>（无变化重复）</p><p>美国 8 月就业报告将于 9 月 5 日公布</p><p>之前疲弱的就业报告为美联储在 9 月会议上降息铺平了道路</p><p>投资者关注美联储的独立性，特朗普寻求罢免美联储官员</p><p>作者：路易斯·克劳斯科普夫</p><p>纽约，8 月 29 日（路透社）- 下周晚些时候发布的美国劳动力市场报告将对经济健康状况提供重要的解读，并测试投资者对即将降息的信心，这一观点帮助美国股市创下历史新高。</p><p>上个月发布的意外疲弱的美国就业数据</p><p>提高了市场对美联储将在 9 月下次会议上再次降息的预期，因为中央银行在应对通胀担忧的同时，努力支持劳动力市场。</p><p>下周五的 8 月就业报告疲软可能会引发对经济放缓的担忧，但这也可能导致市场预期更激进的降息，纳蒂克斯投资管理解决方案的首席投资组合策略师杰克·贾纳西维奇表示。</p><p>“较低的利率可能会压倒略微放缓的劳动力市场，这可能为经济和……股市提供支撑，” 他说。</p><p>自 4 月触及年内低点以来，美国股市持续上涨。投资者已摆脱对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税将使经济陷入衰退的担忧，而广泛的科技股和其他股票则受益于对人工智能商业潜力的乐观预期。</p><p>周五股指下跌，因与人工智能相关的股票下滑，加剧了科技股近期的不稳定，重磅芯片制造商博通（AVGO.O）的财报将于周四公布。尽管如此，基准标准普尔 500 指数（.SPX）在传统上具有挑战性的 8 月份上涨了 1.9%，将其年初至今的涨幅推高至约 10%，接近历史高位。</p><p>市场仍处于历史上最具挑战性的日历时期。根据《股票交易者年鉴》，在过去 35 年中，9 月被评为标准普尔 500 指数表现最差的月份，平均下降 0.8%。该指数在 9 月下跌了 35 次中的 18 次，是唯一一个在此期间下跌次数超过上涨次数的月份。</p><p>就业报告是 9 月的首个重大经济发布。根据路透社的调查，预计 8 月就业人数将增加 75,000 个。在上个月的报告中，非农就业人数增长了 73,000 个，这一意外疲弱的数字还伴随着对前两个月增长的急剧下调。</p><p>宏利投资管理的全球首席经济学家兼宏观策略负责人亚历克斯·格拉西诺表示，他预计就业报告的各个组成部分，如失业率和小时工资，“基本上会传达同样的信息，即美国劳动力市场已经降温。”</p><p>疲弱的 7 月报告提高了市场对美联储将在 9 月下次会议上降息的预期，这一押注在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近表示就业市场风险上升后更加坚定。</p><p>截至周五，联邦基金期货显示美联储在 9 月 16-17 日会议上降息 25 个基点的概率为 89%，LSEG 数据显示。</p><p>“要让美联储重新考虑降息的想法，报告中需要有非常广泛的强劲表现，” 大都会人寿投资管理的首席市场策略师德鲁·马图斯表示，并补充说这样的报告出现的可能性 “相当低”。</p><p>“我们可能会看到一份尚可的报告，而一份尚可的报告不会阻止美联储降息，” 马图斯说。</p><p>尽管 9 月降息可能几乎已成定局，但就业数据也可能影响未来几个月的宽松预期。联邦基金期货显示到 12 月预计将有约 55 个基点，或超过两次标准降息。</p><p>在特朗普寻求重塑美联储董事会后，市场还将关注美联储的其他动态，特朗普已采取行动罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克。库克于周四提起诉讼，声称特朗普无权将她免职。</p><p>这一争议重新点燃了人们对美联储信誉及其在没有政治压力下进行货币政策的能力的担忧，此前特朗普数月来一直对美联储及鲍威尔特别表示不满，认为他们未能按他希望的程度降息。</p><p>尽管这一情况加剧了资本市场对美联储独立性的猜测，但格拉西诺表示，这些风险目前可能已被适当地定价。</p><p>“许多传统市场参与者认为理所当然的事情正在受到质疑，” 他说。“因此，随着这些问题的出现，你可能会扩大潜在的尾部风险。”</p>

标普 500 指数

<p>一份定于 9 月 5 日发布的重要美国就业报告可能会影响市场对美联储降息的预期，而这些预期已推动美国股市创下历史新高。疲弱的报告可能会导致市场对更激进降息的定价，尽管人们对经济放缓表示担忧。标准普尔 500 指数年初至今已上涨 10%，但历史上 9 月份通常会出现下跌。美联储期货显示，9 月会议上降息 25 个基点的概率为 89%。特朗普试图罢免一位理事的政治压力引发了人们对美联储独立性的担忧</p>

<p>(Repeats with no changes)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（无变化重复）</p>
</div><p>August US employment report due on Sept 5</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国 8 月就业报告将于 9 月 5 日公布</p>
</div><p>Prior weak jobs report sets stage for Fed rate cut at Sept meeting</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>之前疲弱的就业报告为美联储在 9 月会议上降息铺平了道路</p>
</div><p>Investors eye Fed independence as Trump seeks removal of Fed official</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者关注美联储的独立性，特朗普寻求罢免美联储官员</p>
</div><p>By Lewis Krauskopf</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：路易斯·克劳斯科普夫</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Aug 29 (Reuters) - A U.S. labor market report late next week will give a crucial read into the economy’s health and test investors’ confidence that interest rate cuts are coming soon, a view that has helped lift U.S. equities to record-high levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，8 月 29 日（路透社）- 下周晚些时候发布的美国劳动力市场报告将对经济健康状况提供重要的解读，并测试投资者对即将降息的信心，这一观点帮助美国股市创下历史新高。</p>
</div><p>Last month’s release of surprisingly weak U.S. payrolls data</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个月发布的意外疲弱的美国就业数据</p>
</div><p>raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates again at its next meeting in September, as the central bank moves to support the labor market despite inflation worries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>提高了市场对美联储将在 9 月下次会议上再次降息的预期，因为中央银行在应对通胀担忧的同时，努力支持劳动力市场。</p>
</div><p>A soft August employment report next Friday could raise concerns about a slowing economy, but it also might lead the market to price in more aggressive cuts, said Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下周五的 8 月就业报告疲软可能会引发对经济放缓的担忧，但这也可能导致市场预期更激进的降息，纳蒂克斯投资管理解决方案的首席投资组合策略师杰克·贾纳西维奇表示。</p>
</div><p>“Lower rates probably trump a modestly slowing labor market, and that probably puts a floor underneath the economy and … the stock market,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“较低的利率可能会压倒略微放缓的劳动力市场，这可能为经济和……股市提供支撑，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>U.S. equities have charged higher since hitting their lows for the year in April. Investors have shaken off concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs would send the economy into a recession, while a wide swath of tech and other stocks have benefited from optimism about the business potential of artificial intelligence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 4 月触及年内低点以来，美国股市持续上涨。投资者已摆脱对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税将使经济陷入衰退的担忧，而广泛的科技股和其他股票则受益于对人工智能商业潜力的乐观预期。</p>
</div><p>Stock indexes fell on Friday, as declines in AI-related names added to recent shakiness in tech stocks, with earnings reports from heavyweight chipmaker Broadcom (AVGO.O) due on Thursday. Still, the benchmark S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) ended the traditionally challenging month of August up 1.9%, pushing its year-to-date gain up to about 10%, near record-high levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五股指下跌，因与人工智能相关的股票下滑，加剧了科技股近期的不稳定，重磅芯片制造商博通（AVGO.O）的财报将于周四公布。尽管如此，基准标准普尔 500 指数（.SPX）在传统上具有挑战性的 8 月份上涨了 1.9%，将其年初至今的涨幅推高至约 10%，接近历史高位。</p>
</div><p>Markets remain in a historically treacherous patch on the calendar. Over the past 35 years, September has ranked as the worst-performing month of the year for the S&amp;P 500, with an average decline of 0.8% during that period, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. The index has fallen 18 of 35 times in September, the only month to have been down more than up in that period, according to the Almanac.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场仍处于历史上最具挑战性的日历时期。根据《股票交易者年鉴》，在过去 35 年中，9 月被评为标准普尔 500 指数表现最差的月份，平均下降 0.8%。该指数在 9 月下跌了 35 次中的 18 次，是唯一一个在此期间下跌次数超过上涨次数的月份。</p>
</div><p>The jobs report is September’s first major economic release. Employment in August is expected to have climbed by 75,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll. In the prior month’s report, nonfarm payrolls grew by 73,000, a surprisingly weak number compounded by sharp downward revisions to growth in the prior two months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就业报告是 9 月的首个重大经济发布。根据路透社的调查，预计 8 月就业人数将增加 75,000 个。在上个月的报告中，非农就业人数增长了 73,000 个，这一意外疲弱的数字还伴随着对前两个月增长的急剧下调。</p>
</div><p>Alex Grassino, global chief economist and head of macro strategy at Manulife Investment Management, said he expects components of the jobs report, such as the unemployment rate and hourly earnings, “to point to basically the same message, which is the U.S. labor market has cooled.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>宏利投资管理的全球首席经济学家兼宏观策略负责人亚历克斯·格拉西诺表示，他预计就业报告的各个组成部分，如失业率和小时工资，“基本上会传达同样的信息，即美国劳动力市场已经降温。”</p>
</div><p>The weak July report raised market expectations that the Fed would cut rates at its next meeting in September, bets that firmed after Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently said job market risks were rising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲弱的 7 月报告提高了市场对美联储将在 9 月下次会议上降息的预期，这一押注在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近表示就业市场风险上升后更加坚定。</p>
</div><p>Fed funds futures as of Friday suggested an 89% chance the central bank will reduce rates by 25 basis points at its September 16-17 meeting, LSEG data showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至周五，联邦基金期货显示美联储在 9 月 16-17 日会议上降息 25 个基点的概率为 89%，LSEG 数据显示。</p>
</div><p>“It would take very broad-based strength in the report in order to get the Fed to rethink the idea of moving rates lower,” Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management said, adding the odds such a report are “pretty low.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“要让美联储重新考虑降息的想法，报告中需要有非常广泛的强劲表现，” 大都会人寿投资管理的首席市场策略师德鲁·马图斯表示，并补充说这样的报告出现的可能性 “相当低”。</p>
</div><p>“We could see an OK report, and an OK report isn’t going to dissuade the Fed from cutting,” Matus said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们可能会看到一份尚可的报告，而一份尚可的报告不会阻止美联储降息，” 马图斯说。</p>
</div><p>While a September cut may be close to locked in, the jobs data also could sway expectations about the amount of easing in the months ahead. Fed funds futures suggest about 55 basis points, or just over two standard cuts, are expected by December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 9 月降息可能几乎已成定局，但就业数据也可能影响未来几个月的宽松预期。联邦基金期货显示到 12 月预计将有约 55 个基点，或超过两次标准降息。</p>
</div><p>Other developments at the Fed will also be in focus for the market in the coming week, after Trump moved to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook as he seeks to reshape the central bank’s board. Cook filed a lawsuit on Thursday, claiming Trump has no power to remove her from office.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特朗普寻求重塑美联储董事会后，市场还将关注美联储的其他动态，特朗普已采取行动罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克。库克于周四提起诉讼，声称特朗普无权将她免职。</p>
</div><p>The controversy has reignited concerns over the Fed’s credibility and its ability to conduct monetary policy free of political pressure, after Trump for months railed against the Fed and Powell specifically for not lowering rates to the extent he wants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一争议重新点燃了人们对美联储信誉及其在没有政治压力下进行货币政策的能力的担忧，此前特朗普数月来一直对美联储及鲍威尔特别表示不满，认为他们未能按他希望的程度降息。</p>
</div><p>While the situation has ramped up speculation in capital markets around Fed independence, those risks are probably appropriately priced in, for now, Grassino said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这一情况加剧了资本市场对美联储独立性的猜测，但格拉西诺表示，这些风险目前可能已被适当地定价。</p>
</div><p>“A lot of things that traditional market participants would have taken as a given are being questioned,” he said. “So as they are coming up, you are widening out the tail risks that you could potentially see.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“许多传统市场参与者认为理所当然的事情正在受到质疑，” 他说。“因此，随着这些问题的出现，你可能会扩大潜在的尾部风险。”</p>
</div>

华尔街下周展望：美国就业数据成为降息希望的障碍，股市出现反弹