<p>当投资者讨论人工智能（AI）交易的未来时，谈话通常会回到那些老面孔：<strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>，以及像 <strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 这样的云计算巨头。</p>
<p>这些公司都在争相设计 GPU 或开发定制加速器。但在这些硬件背后，有一家公司无论哪种芯片品牌领先都能受益：<strong>台积电</strong>（TSM -3.05%）。</p>
<p>让我们来分析一下为什么台积电是我在未来 10 年内最看好的 AI 芯片股票，并评估现在是否是购买一些股票的合适时机。</p>
<h2>对赢家保持中立，顺应趋势</h2>
<p>作为全球领先的半导体代工厂，台积电为几乎所有主要的 AI 开发者制造芯片——从 Nvidia 和 AMD 到亚马逊的定制硅项目，称为 Trainium 和 Inferentia。</p>
<p>与许多依赖新产品周期来刺激需求的芯片同行不同，台积电的商业模式在根本上是中立的。无论需求是分配给 GPU、加速器还是专用云硅，所有的道路都通向台积电的制造能力。</p>
<p>在全球代工市场中，台积电几乎占据 70% 的市场份额，其主导地位不容忽视。如此强大的竞争优势为公司提供了无与伦比的结构性需求可见性——这一趋势似乎正在加速，因为 AI 基础设施支出仍在上升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzEzNjMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtODY0NzA3NzQwLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzEzNjMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtODY0NzA3NzQwLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>随着更复杂的 AI 应用扩展</h2>
<p>目前，AI 开发仍集中在训练和优化大型语言模型（LLMs）以及将其嵌入下游软件应用中。</p>
<p>下一波 AI 将扩展到更为多样化和苛刻的用例——自主系统、机器人技术和量子计算仍处于起步阶段。在规模化时，这些工作负载将对硅的需求超过今天的芯片所能支持的。</p>
<p>满足这些需求不仅仅需要对芯片进行额外投资。相反，它需要为新的效率、性能和电源管理水平而设计的芯片。这正是台积电的竞争优势开始积累的地方。</p>
<p>随着每一代工艺技术的进步，公司有独特的机会拉大与 <strong>Samsung</strong> 或 <strong>Intel</strong> 等竞争对手之间的性能差距。</p>
<p>由于台积电在代工领域已经有如此大的市场份额，下一代设计的复杂性为公司提供了进一步巩固更深、更牢固客户关系的机会。</p>
<h2>台积电的估值及扩展的理由</h2>
<p>台积电的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 24，但将该股票视为 “昂贵” 则忽视了公司在 AI 领域的非凡定位。在我看来，公司的估值反映了强劲的增长前景、改善的盈利预期和下降的风险溢价。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2686ccef6cbce3c11e5c1405b33a16db.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2686ccef6cbce3c11e5c1405b33a16db.png"/></p>
<p>TSM 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>与许多半导体同行不同，台积电已成为许多全球最大 AI 开发者不可或缺的基础设施，演变为当前基础设施繁荣的支柱之一。</p>
<p>当前 AI 基础设施背后的投资规模令人瞩目。云计算巨头正在投入巨额资金以扩展和现代化数据中心，而每个新建项目的核心都是对更多芯片的持续需求。此外，这些公司都在探索更先进的用例，这些用例在某个时刻将需要下一代处理能力。</p>
<p>这些动态将台积电置于即时增长与持久长期扩展的交汇点，因为 AI 基础设施迅速从今天的持续增长驱动因素演变为数十年的世俗主题。</p>
<p>台积电的制造主导地位确保其服务在未来几年将继续见证强劲的需求。因此，我认为台积电在未来十年有望经历进一步的估值扩张，因为 AI 故事的基础设施篇章将继续展开。</p>
<p>虽然芯片领域有许多良好的机会，但台积电独树一帜。在未来几年动荡的科技环境中，我认为它可能是最独特、最具耐久性的半导体股票。</p>

台积电

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）被认为是未来十年顶尖的人工智能芯片股票，受益于其作为领先半导体代工厂的地位，市场份额接近 70%。与竞争对手不同，TSMC 的商业模式对芯片品牌不偏向，为主要的人工智能开发商如 Nvidia 和 AMD 进行生产。随着人工智能应用的发展，对更复杂芯片的需求增加，公司有望实现增长。尽管前瞻市盈率为 24，但 TSMC 强大的市场地位和对人工智能基础设施中芯片的持续需求暗示其估值有进一步扩展的潜力</p>

<p>When investors debate the future of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade, the conversation generally finds its way back to the usual suspects: <strong>Nvidia</strong>, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>, and cloud hyperscalers like <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, and <strong>Alphabet</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当投资者讨论人工智能（AI）交易的未来时，谈话通常会回到那些老面孔：<strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>，以及像 <strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 这样的云计算巨头。</p>
</div><p>Each of these companies is racing to design GPUs or develop custom accelerators in-house. But behind this hardware, there's a company that benefits no matter which chip brand comes out ahead: <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM -3.05%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些公司都在争相设计 GPU 或开发定制加速器。但在这些硬件背后，有一家公司无论哪种芯片品牌领先都能受益：<strong>台积电</strong>（TSM -3.05%）。</p>
</div><p>Let's unpack why Taiwan Semi is my top AI chip stock over the next 10 years, and assess whether now is an opportune time to scoop up some shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们来分析一下为什么台积电是我在未来 10 年内最看好的 AI 芯片股票，并评估现在是否是购买一些股票的合适时机。</p>
</div><h2>Agnostic to the winner, leveraged to the trend</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对赢家保持中立，顺应趋势</h2>
</div><p>As the world's leading semiconductor foundry, TSMC manufactures chips for nearly every major AI developer -- from Nvidia and AMD to Amazon's custom silicon initiatives, dubbed Trainium and Inferentia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为全球领先的半导体代工厂，台积电为几乎所有主要的 AI 开发者制造芯片——从 Nvidia 和 AMD 到亚马逊的定制硅项目，称为 Trainium 和 Inferentia。</p>
</div><p>Unlike many of its peers in the chip space that rely on new product cycles to spur demand, Taiwan Semi's business model is fundamentally agnostic. Whether demand is allocated toward GPUs, accelerators, or specialized cloud silicon, all roads lead back to TSMC's fabrication capabilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与许多依赖新产品周期来刺激需求的芯片同行不同，台积电的商业模式在根本上是中立的。无论需求是分配给 GPU、加速器还是专用云硅，所有的道路都通向台积电的制造能力。</p>
</div><p>With nearly 70% market share in the global foundry space, Taiwan Semi's dominance is hard to ignore. Such a commanding lead over the competition provides the company with unmatched structural demand visibility -- a trend that appears to be accelerating as AI infrastructure spend remains on the rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在全球代工市场中，台积电几乎占据 70% 的市场份额，其主导地位不容忽视。如此强大的竞争优势为公司提供了无与伦比的结构性需求可见性——这一趋势似乎正在加速，因为 AI 基础设施支出仍在上升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzEzNjMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtODY0NzA3NzQwLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831363%2Fgettyimages-864707740-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Scaling with more sophisticated AI applications</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>随着更复杂的 AI 应用扩展</h2>
</div><p>At the moment, AI development is still concentrated on training and refining large language models (LLMs) and embedding them into downstream software applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，AI 开发仍集中在训练和优化大型语言模型（LLMs）以及将其嵌入下游软件应用中。</p>
</div><p>The next wave of AI will expand into far more diverse and demanding use cases -- autonomous systems, robotics, and quantum computing remain in their infancy. At scale, these workloads will place greater demands on silicon than today's chips can support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一波 AI 将扩展到更为多样化和苛刻的用例——自主系统、机器人技术和量子计算仍处于起步阶段。在规模化时，这些工作负载将对硅的需求超过今天的芯片所能支持的。</p>
</div><p>Meeting these demands doesn't simply require additional investments in chips. Rather, it requires chips engineered for new levels of efficiency, performance, and power management. This is where TSMC's competitive advantages begin to compound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>满足这些需求不仅仅需要对芯片进行额外投资。相反，它需要为新的效率、性能和电源管理水平而设计的芯片。这正是台积电的竞争优势开始积累的地方。</p>
</div><p>With each successive generation of process technology, the company has a unique opportunity to widen the performance gap between itself and rivals like <strong>Samsung</strong> or <strong>Intel</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着每一代工艺技术的进步，公司有独特的机会拉大与 <strong>Samsung</strong> 或 <strong>Intel</strong> 等竞争对手之间的性能差距。</p>
</div><p>Since Taiwan Semi already has such a large footprint in the foundry landscape, next-generation design complexities give the company a chance to further lock in deeper, stickier customer relationships.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于台积电在代工领域已经有如此大的市场份额，下一代设计的复杂性为公司提供了进一步巩固更深、更牢固客户关系的机会。</p>
</div><h2>TSMC's valuation and the case for expansion</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台积电的估值及扩展的理由</h2>
</div><p>Taiwan Semi may trade at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24, but dismissing the stock as &#34;expensive&#34; overlooks the company's extraordinary positioning in the AI realm. To me, the company's valuation reflects a robust growth outlook, improving earnings prospects, and a declining risk premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 24，但将该股票视为 “昂贵” 则忽视了公司在 AI 领域的非凡定位。在我看来，公司的估值反映了强劲的增长前景、改善的盈利预期和下降的风险溢价。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2686ccef6cbce3c11e5c1405b33a16db.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2686ccef6cbce3c11e5c1405b33a16db.png"/></p>
<p>TSM PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSM 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Unlike many of its semiconductor peers, which are vulnerable to cyclicality headwinds, TSMC has become an indispensable utility for many of the world's largest AI developers, evolving into one of the backbones of the ongoing infrastructure boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与许多半导体同行不同，台积电已成为许多全球最大 AI 开发者不可或缺的基础设施，演变为当前基础设施繁荣的支柱之一。</p>
</div><p>The scale of investment behind current AI infrastructure is jaw-dropping. Hyperscalers are investing staggering sums to expand and modernize data centers, and at the heart of each new buildout is an unrelenting demand for more chips. Moreover, each of these companies is exploring more advanced use cases that will, at some point, require next-generation processing capabilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前 AI 基础设施背后的投资规模令人瞩目。云计算巨头正在投入巨额资金以扩展和现代化数据中心，而每个新建项目的核心都是对更多芯片的持续需求。此外，这些公司都在探索更先进的用例，这些用例在某个时刻将需要下一代处理能力。</p>
</div><p>These dynamics position Taiwan Semi at the crossroad of immediate growth and enduring long-term expansion, as AI infrastructure swiftly evolves from a constant driver of growth today into a multidecade secular theme.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些动态将台积电置于即时增长与持久长期扩展的交汇点，因为 AI 基础设施迅速从今天的持续增长驱动因素演变为数十年的世俗主题。</p>
</div><p>TSMC's manufacturing dominance ensures that its services will continue to witness robust demand for years to come. For this reason, I think Taiwan Semi is positioned to experience further valuation expansion over the next decade as the infrastructure chapter of the AI story continues to unfold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电的制造主导地位确保其服务在未来几年将继续见证强劲的需求。因此，我认为台积电在未来十年有望经历进一步的估值扩张，因为 AI 故事的基础设施篇章将继续展开。</p>
</div><p>While there are many great opportunities in the chip space, TSMC stands alone. I see it as perhaps the most unique, durable semiconductor stock to own amid a volatile technology landscape over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然芯片领域有许多良好的机会，但台积电独树一帜。在未来几年动荡的科技环境中，我认为它可能是最独特、最具耐久性的半导体股票。</p>
</div>

If I Could Only Buy 1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Chip Stock Over The Next 10 Years, This Would Be It (Hint: It's Not Nvidia)

- 台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）是全球领先的半导体代工厂，市场份额近 70%。  
- TSMC 为主要 AI 开发者制造芯片，受益于 AI 基础设施投资的增长。  
- 该公司在新一代处理器需求中具备竞争优势，未来十年有望实现估值扩张。  

如果我在未来 10 年内只能购买一只人工智能（AI）芯片股票，那将是这只（提示：不是英伟达）