<p>在过去三年中，没有什么比人工智能（AI）的崛起更能影响市场，而在人工智能的发展中，没有哪只股票比 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -3.38%）受益更多。拥有能够进行瞬时决策的人工智能软件和系统的前景，可能会在全球大多数行业中引发变革。</p>
<p>Nvidia 已找到其作为企业数据中心图形处理单元（GPU）主要供应商的市场定位。GPU 是推动瞬时决策以及大型语言模型训练的 “大脑”。</p>
<p>没有哪份财报能像 Nvidia 那样引起更多关注。尽管超越华尔街的共识收入和利润预测已成为常态，但 Nvidia 最新的财报发出了一个无声的警报，应该提醒股东，并对人工智能的炒作有所抑制。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE0MDYvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE0MDYvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
<h2>在财政第二季度，Nvidia 的业务一如既往</h2>
<p>如果说 Nvidia 有什么优势，那就是一致性。其 467 亿美元的净销售额（比去年同期增长 56%）和每股收益（EPS）1.05 美元，均轻松超越华尔街分析师设定的标准。这是 Nvidia 的每股收益连续第 11 个季度超出预期。</p>
<p>展现亮点的依然是其数据中心部门，该部门占报告销售额的 88% 以上。根据首席执行官黄仁勋的说法，Blackwell 的销售异常强劲，加上对下一代芯片 Blackwell Ultra 的 “非凡” 需求，推动了这一增长。</p>
<p>或许 Nvidia 财政第二季度报告中最令人印象深刻的运营指标是其公认会计原则（GAAP）毛利率，达到了 72.4%。尽管这比去年同期下降了 270 个基点，但这代表着毛利率在一年多以来首次实现连续季度改善。</p>
<p>黄仁勋并不掩饰他希望保持 Nvidia 计算优势的愿望，并计划每年推出一款新的先进 AI 芯片。Blackwell Ultra 的推出之后，预计 Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra 将在 2026 年和 2027 年下半年相继亮相。我们看到的 GAAP 毛利率的上升表明，Nvidia 至少在目前仍在保持其 AI 硬件的强劲定价。</p>
<p>此外，Nvidia 毛利率的逆转可能表明 AI-GPU 的持续短缺。企业需求超过供应一直是 Nvidia 至今的核心催化剂之一。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 发出了无声的警告——但投资者会听吗？</h2>
<p>然而，这份财报并不是外界所认为的那样简单，两个无声的警告提醒着华尔街这家最有价值公司和最受追捧的创新可能面临的麻烦。</p>
<p>第一个问题与 Nvidia 的收入集中度有关，这可以在其向证券交易委员会提交的季度 10-Q 报告中找到。根据公司数据，“在 2026 财年第二季度，来自一位直接客户 A 的销售额占总收入的 23%；来自另一位直接客户 B 的销售额占总收入的 16%，这两者均归因于计算与网络部门。”</p>
<p>换句话说，在最新季度中，Nvidia 的 467 亿美元总销售额中大约 182 亿美元来自仅仅两家公司。在其数据中心部门（“计算与网络”）中，这对组合占销售额的 44% 以上。在过去一年中，Nvidia 对少数几家公司在净销售和利润增长方面的依赖程度不断加深。</p>
<p>一方面，乐观者可以认为 Nvidia 与这些主导企业紧密相连是一件好事。尽管 Nvidia 并未透露其主要客户的名称，但客户 A 和 B（无特定顺序）可能是 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（META -1.69%）和 <strong>Microsoft</strong>（MSFT -0.65%），这两家 “七大巨头” 成员正在积极投资于 AI 数据中心基础设施。</p>
<p>另一方面，Meta 和 Microsoft 都在内部开发用于其数据中心的 AI-GPU。尽管这些芯片对 Nvidia 没有外部威胁，但它们的成本显著更低且更易获得（没有积压），并且可能在未来几个季度轻易夺走 Nvidia 宝贵的数据中心市场份额。</p>
<p>此外，黄仁勋强调每年推出一款新的先进 AI 芯片的计划，可能会迅速贬值之前一代的 GPU。这可能会迅速降低 Meta 和 Microsoft 等公司已经购买的 GPU 的价值，这反过来可能会延迟升级周期，和/或在未来对 Nvidia 的毛利率造成压力，如果买家选择更便宜的硬件。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE0MDYvcGFwZXItY2VydGlmaWNhdGUtc2hhcmVzLWludmVzdC1zdG9jay1zcGxpdC1tYXJrZXQtcmV2ZXJzZS1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE0MDYvcGFwZXItY2VydGlmaWNhdGUtc2hhcmVzLWludmVzdC1zdG9jay1zcGxpdC1tYXJrZXQtcmV2ZXJzZS1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>但等等——还有更多</h2>
<p>投资者在 Nvidia 最新的财报中会发现的另一个无声而微妙的警告是对长期股东的 “奖励”。在之前的股票回购授权下，Nvidia 剩余 147 亿美元，董事会批准了额外 600 亿美元的回购计划。</p>
<p>股票回购和分红是上市公司为长期投资创造激励的两种最直接方式。对于净收入稳定或增长的企业（Nvidia 显然符合这一条件），股票回购能够通过减少流通股数量来提高每股收益。简而言之，股票回购可以使公司的股票在基本面上对投资者更具吸引力。</p>
<p>那么，为什么 600 亿美元的股票回购额度对 Nvidia 来说是坏事？</p>
<p>首先，对于一家刚刚实现 56% 年同比销售增长的公司的投资者来说，最后想看到的就是它将资本用于回购股票。自 2023 年开始以来，英伟达的股价已经上涨超过 1100%，并且其市销率（P/S）处于历史高位。除了其股票并不特别便宜之外，600 亿美元的股票回购授权表明管理层在寻找其他高增长投资项目方面遇到了困难。</p>
<p>看到英伟达的董事会推动如此大规模的回购计划也非常奇怪，因为自 2020 年 12 月初以来，没有任何内部人士购买过该公司的股票。在过去五年中，英伟达的高管和董事会成员已经出售了超过 47 亿美元的股票。</p>
<p>考虑到英伟达的收入集中风险和令人困惑的回购额度，公司的情况可能并不像表面上看起来那么完美，也可能对人工智能革命并不那么乐观。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达最近的财报显示，销售额达到 467 亿美元，主要得益于其数据中心部门，该部门占总收入的 88% 以上。然而，报告引发了对收入集中度的担忧，两位客户占总销售额的 39%。此外，英伟达对这些客户的依赖，他们正在开发自己的 AI-GPU，这对未来销售构成风险。尽管毛利率有所改善，但旧款 GPU 的快速贬值潜力可能会影响英伟达的盈利能力和市场地位</p>

<p>Over the past three years, nothing has moved markets more than the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), and no stock has benefited more from the evolution of AI than <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -3.38%). The prospect of having software and systems empowered with AI making split-second decisions is a potential game-changer in most industries around the globe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去三年中，没有什么比人工智能（AI）的崛起更能影响市场，而在人工智能的发展中，没有哪只股票比 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -3.38%）受益更多。拥有能够进行瞬时决策的人工智能软件和系统的前景，可能会在全球大多数行业中引发变革。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia has found its niche as the leading supplier of graphics processing units (GPUs) used in enterprise data centers. GPUs are the &#34;brains&#34; that fuel split-second decision-making, as well as the training of large language models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 已找到其作为企业数据中心图形处理单元（GPU）主要供应商的市场定位。GPU 是推动瞬时决策以及大型语言模型训练的 “大脑”。</p>
</div><p>No earnings report tends to garner more attention than Nvidia. While surpassing Wall Street's consensus revenue and profit forecasts has been something of the norm, Nvidia's latest report sounded a silent alarm that should serve as a warning to shareholders, as well as temper artificial intelligence hype.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有哪份财报能像 Nvidia 那样引起更多关注。尽管超越华尔街的共识收入和利润预测已成为常态，但 Nvidia 最新的财报发出了一个无声的警报，应该提醒股东，并对人工智能的炒作有所抑制。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE0MDYvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831406%2Fnvidia-voyager-headquarters-artificial-intelligence-gpu-ai-semiconductor.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
</div><h2>It was business as usual for Nvidia in the fiscal second quarter</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在财政第二季度，Nvidia 的业务一如既往</h2>
</div><p>If there's one thing Nvidia has on its side, it's consistency. Its $46.7 billion in net sales (up 56% from the year-ago period), and its $1.05 in earnings per share (EPS), both handily leaped over the bars laid by Wall Street analysts. This was the 11th consecutive quarter that Nvidia's EPS surpassed expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果说 Nvidia 有什么优势，那就是一致性。其 467 亿美元的净销售额（比去年同期增长 56%）和每股收益（EPS）1.05 美元，均轻松超越华尔街分析师设定的标准。这是 Nvidia 的每股收益连续第 11 个季度超出预期。</p>
</div><p>The star of the show continues to be its data center segment, which accounted for more than 88% of reported sales. Exceptionally strong sales of Blackwell, coupled with &#34;extraordinary&#34; demand for next-gen chip Blackwell Ultra, according to CEO Jensen Huang, has powered the charge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展现亮点的依然是其数据中心部门，该部门占报告销售额的 88% 以上。根据首席执行官黄仁勋的说法，Blackwell 的销售异常强劲，加上对下一代芯片 Blackwell Ultra 的 “非凡” 需求，推动了这一增长。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps the most impressive operating metric in Nvidia's fiscal second quarter report (ended July 27) is its generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) gross margin, which clocked in at 72.4%. Though this was down 270 basis points from the prior-year period, it represents the first sequential quarterly improvement in gross margin in more than a year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或许 Nvidia 财政第二季度报告中最令人印象深刻的运营指标是其公认会计原则（GAAP）毛利率，达到了 72.4%。尽管这比去年同期下降了 270 个基点，但这代表着毛利率在一年多以来首次实现连续季度改善。</p>
</div><p>Huang hasn't been shy about his desire to maintain Nvidia's compute advantages and aims to bring a new advanced AI chip to market each year. The ramp-up of Blackwell Ultra will be followed by the expected debuts of Vera Rubin and Vera Rubin Ultra in the latter-halves of 2026 and 2027, respectively. This uptick we're seeing in GAAP gross margin indicates Nvidia is maintaining strong pricing on its AI hardware, at least for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄仁勋并不掩饰他希望保持 Nvidia 计算优势的愿望，并计划每年推出一款新的先进 AI 芯片。Blackwell Ultra 的推出之后，预计 Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra 将在 2026 年和 2027 年下半年相继亮相。我们看到的 GAAP 毛利率的上升表明，Nvidia 至少在目前仍在保持其 AI 硬件的强劲定价。</p>
</div><p>In addition, Nvidia's about-face with its gross margin may indicate ongoing AI-GPU scarcity. Enterprise demand outweighing supply has been one of Nvidia's core catalysts to this point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，Nvidia 毛利率的逆转可能表明 AI-GPU 的持续短缺。企业需求超过供应一直是 Nvidia 至今的核心催化剂之一。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia is sounding a silent warning -- but will investors listen?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 发出了无声的警告——但投资者会听吗？</h2>
</div><p>However, this earnings report isn't the slam-dunk it's made out to be, with two silent warnings alerting to potential trouble on the horizon for Wall Street's most valuable company and most-hyped innovation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这份财报并不是外界所认为的那样简单，两个无声的警告提醒着华尔街这家最有价值公司和最受追捧的创新可能面临的麻烦。</p>
</div><p>The first issue has to do with Nvidia's concentration of revenue, which can be found in its quarterly filed 10-Q with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Per the company, &#34;For the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, sales to one direct customer, Customer A, represented 23% of total revenue; and sales to a second direct customer, Customer B, represented 16% of total revenue, respectively, both of which were attributable to the Compute &amp; Networking segment.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第一个问题与 Nvidia 的收入集中度有关，这可以在其向证券交易委员会提交的季度 10-Q 报告中找到。根据公司数据，“在 2026 财年第二季度，来自一位直接客户 A 的销售额占总收入的 23%；来自另一位直接客户 B 的销售额占总收入的 16%，这两者均归因于计算与网络部门。”</p>
</div><p>In other words, approximately $18.2 billion of Nvidia's $46.7 billion in total sales came from just two companies during the latest quarter. Within its data center segment (&#34;Compute &amp; Networking&#34;), this dynamic duo accounted for more than 44% of sales. Over the last year, Nvidia has become increasingly reliant on a narrower group of companies for its net sales and profit growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，在最新季度中，Nvidia 的 467 亿美元总销售额中大约 182 亿美元来自仅仅两家公司。在其数据中心部门（“计算与网络”）中，这对组合占销售额的 44% 以上。在过去一年中，Nvidia 对少数几家公司在净销售和利润增长方面的依赖程度不断加深。</p>
</div><p>On one hand, optimists can argue that it's a good thing Nvidia is intricately tied to these dominant businesses. Though Nvidia doesn't spill the beans on the names of its top clients, customers A and B are (in no particular order) probably <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -1.69%) and <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -0.65%), with both &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; members aggressively investing in AI-data center infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一方面，乐观者可以认为 Nvidia 与这些主导企业紧密相连是一件好事。尽管 Nvidia 并未透露其主要客户的名称，但客户 A 和 B（无特定顺序）可能是 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（META -1.69%）和 <strong>Microsoft</strong>（MSFT -0.65%），这两家 “七大巨头” 成员正在积极投资于 AI 数据中心基础设施。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, both Meta and Microsoft are internally developing AI-GPUs to use in their data centers. Even though these chips present no external threat to Nvidia, they're considerably cheaper and more readily accessible (not backlogged), and they can easily cost Nvidia valuable data center real estate in future quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，Meta 和 Microsoft 都在内部开发用于其数据中心的 AI-GPU。尽管这些芯片对 Nvidia 没有外部威胁，但它们的成本显著更低且更易获得（没有积压），并且可能在未来几个季度轻易夺走 Nvidia 宝贵的数据中心市场份额。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Huang's emphasis on bringing a new advanced AI chip to market each year has the potential to rapidly depreciate prior-generation GPUs. This could quickly devalue the GPUs that companies such as Meta and Microsoft have already purchased, which in turn may delay upgrade cycles and/or weigh on Nvidia's gross margin in the future if buyers opt for cheaper hardware.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，黄仁勋强调每年推出一款新的先进 AI 芯片的计划，可能会迅速贬值之前一代的 GPU。这可能会迅速降低 Meta 和 Microsoft 等公司已经购买的 GPU 的价值，这反过来可能会延迟升级周期，和/或在未来对 Nvidia 的毛利率造成压力，如果买家选择更便宜的硬件。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE0MDYvcGFwZXItY2VydGlmaWNhdGUtc2hhcmVzLWludmVzdC1zdG9jay1zcGxpdC1tYXJrZXQtcmV2ZXJzZS1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831406%2Fpaper-certificate-shares-invest-stock-split-market-reverse-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>But wait -- there's more</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>但等等——还有更多</h2>
</div><p>The other silent and subtle warning investors will find in Nvidia's latest earnings release is its &#34;reward&#34; for long-term shareholders. With $14.7 billion remaining under its prior share repurchase authorization, Nvidia's board approved an additional $60 billion worth of buybacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者在 Nvidia 最新的财报中会发现的另一个无声而微妙的警告是对长期股东的 “奖励”。在之前的股票回购授权下，Nvidia 剩余 147 亿美元，董事会批准了额外 600 亿美元的回购计划。</p>
</div><p>Share buybacks and dividends are two of the most direct ways public companies create incentives for long-term investing. For businesses with steady or growing net income (and Nvidia certainly qualifies), share buybacks have the ability to increase EPS as the outstanding share count declines. In short, share repurchases can make a company's stock more fundamentally attractive to investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票回购和分红是上市公司为长期投资创造激励的两种最直接方式。对于净收入稳定或增长的企业（Nvidia 显然符合这一条件），股票回购能够通过减少流通股数量来提高每股收益。简而言之，股票回购可以使公司的股票在基本面上对投资者更具吸引力。</p>
</div><p>So why is a $60 billion share-repurchase allotment bad for Nvidia?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，为什么 600 亿美元的股票回购额度对 Nvidia 来说是坏事？</p>
</div><p>For starters, the last thing investors of a company that just delivered 56% year-over-year sales growth should want to see is it spending its capital on buybacks. Nvidia stock has gained more than 1,100% since 2023 began and is sporting a historically high price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. Aside from the fact that its shares aren't particularly cheap, a $60 billion share buyback authorization suggests management is struggling to find other high-growth initiatives to invest its capital into.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，对于一家刚刚实现 56% 年同比销售增长的公司的投资者来说，最后想看到的就是它将资本用于回购股票。自 2023 年开始以来，英伟达的股价已经上涨超过 1100%，并且其市销率（P/S）处于历史高位。除了其股票并不特别便宜之外，600 亿美元的股票回购授权表明管理层在寻找其他高增长投资项目方面遇到了困难。</p>
</div><p>It's also incredibly odd to see Nvidia's board promote such a sizable repurchase program when no insider has purchased shares of the company since early December 2020. Over the trailing-five-year period, more than $4.7 billion of Nvidia stock has been sold by executives and board members.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看到英伟达的董事会推动如此大规模的回购计划也非常奇怪，因为自 2020 年 12 月初以来，没有任何内部人士购买过该公司的股票。在过去五年中，英伟达的高管和董事会成员已经出售了超过 47 亿美元的股票。</p>
</div><p>Between Nvidia's dangerous revenue concentration and its head-scratching buyback allotment, things may not be as perfect for the company or the AI revolution as they appear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到英伟达的收入集中风险和令人困惑的回购额度，公司的情况可能并不像表面上看起来那么完美，也可能对人工智能革命并不那么乐观。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Just Sounded the Silent Alarm -- but Are Investors Paying Attention?

- Nvidia 在 AI 领域的领导地位推动了其 46.7 亿美元的销售额增长。  
- 然而，依赖于少数客户的收入集中度和大规模回购计划引发警示。  
- 投资者需关注潜在的市场风险与未来增长的不确定性。  

英伟达刚刚敲响了无声的警钟——投资者是否在关注？