<p>初步检查可能会让一些投资者感到困惑，为什么沃伦·巴菲特及其公司 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A 0.66%）（BRK.B 0.63%）从未在中国科技巨头 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>（BABA 12.99%）上持有股份。阿里巴巴是中国领先的电子零售商，与伯克希尔持有的 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 有许多相似之处，这可能使其成为一个合乎逻辑的选择。</p>
<p>巴菲特和他的团队经常做出意想不到的投资决策，投资提案在仔细审查后往往会落空。尽管如此，研究阿里巴巴是否可以被视为 “巴菲特股票” 可能会为普通投资者是否应该投资提供有价值的见解。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAxNTIvc3R5bGl6ZWQtYW5kLWNvbG9yZnVsLV9hbGliYWJhLWxvZ28tb24taGVkZ2VfYWxpYmFiYS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="420" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAxNTIvc3R5bGl6ZWQtYW5kLWNvbG9yZnVsLV9hbGliYWJhLWxvZ28tb24taGVkZ2VfYWxpYmFiYS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：阿里巴巴集团。</p>
<h2>为什么阿里巴巴看起来像是合适的巴菲特持股</h2>
<p>乍一看，阿里巴巴有许多吸引像巴菲特这样的投资者的特质。如前所述，它是全球最大国家之一的电子商务行业领导者。</p>
<p>像巴菲特这样的投资者可以以相当大的折扣购买该股票。首先，它的市盈率（P/E）仅为 17。这远低于亚马逊的 35 倍市盈率，或阿里巴巴在拉丁美洲的对应公司 <strong>MercadoLibre</strong> 的 61 倍市盈率。</p>
<p>从财务数据来看，2026 财年第一季度（截至 6 月 30 日）的收入略低于 350 亿美元。这个 2% 的年增长率落后于 2025 财年（截至 3 月 31 日）的 6% 增长，并且已从历史增长水平放缓。</p>
<p>尽管如此，在 2026 财年第一季度，阿里巴巴的净收入为 59 亿美元，同比增长 76%。这一点以及 2025 财年利润同比增长 77% 使其市盈率显得极为便宜。</p>
<p>此外，巴菲特的团队并不排斥投资外国股票，包括中国的股票。它曾经拥有并可能仍然拥有 <strong>比亚迪</strong>，尽管现在不再需要披露该持股。它持有的其他非美国股票包括酒类公司 <strong>帝亚吉欧</strong> 和爱尔兰咨询公司 <strong>Aon Plc</strong>。</p>
<p>投资者还应注意，巴菲特的长期商业伙伴查理·芒格在 2021 年曾是阿里巴巴的投资者，这可能是基于上述一些原因。</p>
<h2>阿里巴巴可能不 “值得巴菲特投资” 的原因</h2>
<p>然而，芒格很快决定阿里巴巴的持股是一个错误。他后来将这项投资描述为 “竞争非常激烈”。当他看到中国当局对阿里巴巴联合创始人马云的一些言论的反应时，芒格也开始将阿里巴巴和中国股票普遍视为风险投资。因此，他的基金开始出售股份。</p>
<p>实际上，由于美国投资者无法合法拥有中国股票，他们必须购买与阿里巴巴相关的美国存托凭证（ADR）来投资该股票。尽管如此，风险远不止于此。</p>
<p>在 2021 年，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）调查了中国公司，威胁如果它们不提供更大的财务透明度就会被退市。最终，SEC 与这些公司达成了协议，但这一威胁在最近几个月重新出现，突显了拥有中国股票的风险。</p>
<p>更重要的是，巴菲特在 2022 年对他的副手购买 <strong>台湾半导体</strong> 的股票反应不佳。巴菲特迅速推翻了这一决定，理由是与中国相关的地缘政治担忧。</p>
<p>从某种意义上说，这是一种奇怪的反应，因为伯克希尔拥有或曾拥有比亚迪的股份，而中国是其最大持股 <strong>苹果</strong> 的第一制造中心。因此，可以假设如果美国与中国切断所有联系，伯克希尔的股票将大幅下跌。尽管如此，这些风险突显了投资中国的危险，也可能解释了该股票在过去 11 年中仅上涨了 40%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b439e31e77ae50ea5487d5360088f627.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b439e31e77ae50ea5487d5360088f627.png"/></p>
<p>BABA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<h2>阿里巴巴股票 “值得巴菲特投资” 吗？</h2>
<p>考虑到阿里巴巴的现状，巴菲特不太可能在这家公司持有股份，这表明它可能不适合普通投资者。</p>
<p>实际上，阿里巴巴似乎提供了巴菲特团队在股票中寻找的那种增长，而 17 的市盈率可能使其成为一个诱人的购买选择。</p>
<p>然而，处理中国及其政府与马云之间微妙关系的复杂性增加了拥有阿里巴巴的风险。这些因素也可能解释了该股票在过去 11 年中的相对缓慢增长。鉴于这些条件及其过去的表现，阿里巴巴可能并不是最初看起来的 “巴菲特股票”。</p>

阿里巴巴

阿里巴巴-W

2 倍做多阿里巴巴 ETF - KraneShares

BABO

2 倍做多 BABA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>这篇文章讨论了阿里巴巴股票是否值得沃伦·巴菲特投资。尽管阿里巴巴具有一些吸引人的特征，如低市盈率和强劲的净收入增长，但关于竞争、在中国的监管风险以及巴菲特团队过去的负面经历的担忧表明，这可能不是一个合适的投资。尽管其增长潜力巨大，但投资中国股票的复杂性以及公司历史表现表明，阿里巴巴可能并不是看起来那样的 “巴菲特股票”</p>

<p>A cursory inspection might make some investors wonder why Warren Buffett and his company, <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A 0.66%)(BRK.B 0.63%), have never taken a position in Chinese tech conglomerate <strong>Alibaba</strong>(BABA 12.99%). It's the leading e-retailer in China and has many similarities to Berkshire-holding <strong>Amazon</strong>, possibly making it a logical choice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>初步检查可能会让一些投资者感到困惑，为什么沃伦·巴菲特及其公司 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A 0.66%）（BRK.B 0.63%）从未在中国科技巨头 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>（BABA 12.99%）上持有股份。阿里巴巴是中国领先的电子零售商，与伯克希尔持有的 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 有许多相似之处，这可能使其成为一个合乎逻辑的选择。</p>
</div><p>Buffett and his team often make unexpected investment decisions, and investment proposals often fall through upon closer inspection. Nonetheless, researching whether one can view Alibaba as a &#34;Buffett stock&#34; could provide valuable insights on whether average investors should take a position in it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特和他的团队经常做出意想不到的投资决策，投资提案在仔细审查后往往会落空。尽管如此，研究阿里巴巴是否可以被视为 “巴菲特股票” 可能会为普通投资者是否应该投资提供有价值的见解。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAxNTIvc3R5bGl6ZWQtYW5kLWNvbG9yZnVsLV9hbGliYWJhLWxvZ28tb24taGVkZ2VfYWxpYmFiYS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830152%2Fstylized-and-colorful-_alibaba-logo-on-hedge_alibaba.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Alibaba Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：阿里巴巴集团。</p>
</div><h2>Why Alibaba might look like a fitting Buffett holding</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么阿里巴巴看起来像是合适的巴菲特持股</h2>
</div><p>At first glance, Alibaba has many attributes that would draw an investor like Buffett. As mentioned before, it's the e-commerce industry leader in one of the world's largest countries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乍一看，阿里巴巴有许多吸引像巴菲特这样的投资者的特质。如前所述，它是全球最大国家之一的电子商务行业领导者。</p>
</div><p>An investor like Buffett can buy the stock at a considerable discount. For one, it sells at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 17. That is far below Amazon, which trades at 35 times earnings, or Alibaba's counterpart in Latin America, <strong>MercadoLibre</strong>, which trades at 61 times earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像巴菲特这样的投资者可以以相当大的折扣购买该股票。首先，它的市盈率（P/E）仅为 17。这远低于亚马逊的 35 倍市盈率，或阿里巴巴在拉丁美洲的对应公司 <strong>MercadoLibre</strong> 的 61 倍市盈率。</p>
</div><p>Looking at its financials, revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended June 30) was just under $35 billion. That 2% yearly increase lagged the 6% rise in fiscal 2025 (ended March 31) and has slowed from historical growth levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从财务数据来看，2026 财年第一季度（截至 6 月 30 日）的收入略低于 350 亿美元。这个 2% 的年增长率落后于 2025 财年（截至 3 月 31 日）的 6% 增长，并且已从历史增长水平放缓。</p>
</div><p>Still, in fiscal Q1, Alibaba earned $5.9 billion in net income, up 76% annually. That and the 77% yearly profit increase in fiscal 2025 make its P/E ratio seem extremely inexpensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，在 2026 财年第一季度，阿里巴巴的净收入为 59 亿美元，同比增长 76%。这一点以及 2025 财年利润同比增长 77% 使其市盈率显得极为便宜。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, Buffett's team has not had an aversion to investing in foreign stocks, including those in China. It once owned and may still own <strong>BYD</strong>, though it no longer has to disclose that holding. Other non-U.S. stocks it owns include alcohol company <strong>Diageo</strong> and Irish consulting firm <strong>Aon Plc</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，巴菲特的团队并不排斥投资外国股票，包括中国的股票。它曾经拥有并可能仍然拥有 <strong>比亚迪</strong>，尽管现在不再需要披露该持股。它持有的其他非美国股票包括酒类公司 <strong>帝亚吉欧</strong> 和爱尔兰咨询公司 <strong>Aon Plc</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Investors should also note that Buffett's longtime business partner, Charlie Munger, was an Alibaba investor in 2021, likely for some of the reasons above.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者还应注意，巴菲特的长期商业伙伴查理·芒格在 2021 年曾是阿里巴巴的投资者，这可能是基于上述一些原因。</p>
</div><h2>Alibaba may not be &#34;Buffett worthy&#34; for these reasons</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>阿里巴巴可能不 “值得巴菲特投资” 的原因</h2>
</div><p>However, Munger quickly decided the Alibaba holding was a mistake. He later described the investment as &#34;highly competitive.&#34; Munger also came to see Alibaba and Chinese stocks in general as risky when he saw how the Chinese authorities reacted to some of Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma's comments. As a result, his fund began selling shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，芒格很快决定阿里巴巴的持股是一个错误。他后来将这项投资描述为 “竞争非常激烈”。当他看到中国当局对阿里巴巴联合创始人马云的一些言论的反应时，芒格也开始将阿里巴巴和中国股票普遍视为风险投资。因此，他的基金开始出售股份。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, since American investors can't legally own Chinese stocks, they must buy an American depositary receipt (ADR), a holding company linked to Alibaba, to invest in the stock. Still, the risks extend well beyond that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>实际上，由于美国投资者无法合法拥有中国股票，他们必须购买与阿里巴巴相关的美国存托凭证（ADR）来投资该股票。尽管如此，风险远不止于此。</p>
</div><p>In 2021, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigated Chinese companies, threatening to delist them if they didn't provide greater financial transparency. Ultimately, the SEC reached an agreement with these companies, but that threat has reemerged in recent months, highlighting the risks associated with owning Chinese stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2021 年，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）调查了中国公司，威胁如果它们不提供更大的财务透明度就会被退市。最终，SEC 与这些公司达成了协议，但这一威胁在最近几个月重新出现，突显了拥有中国股票的风险。</p>
</div><p>What's more, Buffett had an adverse reaction in 2022 when his lieutenants bought shares of <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor</strong>. Buffett reversed that decision quickly, citing geopolitical fears related to China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，巴菲特在 2022 年对他的副手购买 <strong>台湾半导体</strong> 的股票反应不佳。巴菲特迅速推翻了这一决定，理由是与中国相关的地缘政治担忧。</p>
</div><p>In a sense, that's a strange reaction, since Berkshire owns or has owned BYD shares, and China is the No. 1 manufacturing hub of its largest holding, <strong>Apple</strong>. Hence, one would have to assume that Berkshire stock would drop significantly if the U.S. cut all ties to China. Nonetheless, these risks highlight the dangers of investing in China and may explain why the stock has only risen 40% since it began trading on U.S. exchanges 11 years ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从某种意义上说，这是一种奇怪的反应，因为伯克希尔拥有或曾拥有比亚迪的股份，而中国是其最大持股 <strong>苹果</strong> 的第一制造中心。因此，可以假设如果美国与中国切断所有联系，伯克希尔的股票将大幅下跌。尽管如此，这些风险突显了投资中国的危险，也可能解释了该股票在过去 11 年中仅上涨了 40%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b439e31e77ae50ea5487d5360088f627.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b439e31e77ae50ea5487d5360088f627.png"/></p>
<p>BABA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BABA 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Is Alibaba stock &#34;Buffett worthy?&#34;</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>阿里巴巴股票 “值得巴菲特投资” 吗？</h2>
</div><p>Considering the state of Alibaba, Buffett is unlikely to take a stake in this company, and that indicates it's probably not a suitable choice for the average investor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到阿里巴巴的现状，巴菲特不太可能在这家公司持有股份，这表明它可能不适合普通投资者。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, Alibaba seems to offer the type of growth that Buffett's team looks for in a stock, and the 17 P/E ratio likely makes it a tempting buy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>实际上，阿里巴巴似乎提供了巴菲特团队在股票中寻找的那种增长，而 17 的市盈率可能使其成为一个诱人的购买选择。</p>
</div><p>However, the complications with dealing with China and its government's tenuous relationship with Jack Ma add to the risks of owning Alibaba. Those factors also likely explain the relatively slow growth of the stock over the last 11 years. Given those conditions and its past performance, Alibaba is probably not the &#34;Buffett stock&#34; it initially appears to be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，处理中国及其政府与马云之间微妙关系的复杂性增加了拥有阿里巴巴的风险。这些因素也可能解释了该股票在过去 11 年中的相对缓慢增长。鉴于这些条件及其过去的表现，阿里巴巴可能并不是最初看起来的 “巴菲特股票”。</p>
</div>

Is Alibaba Stock a Warren Buffett-Worthy Investment?

- 阿里巴巴在中国电商市场占据领先地位，市盈率为 17，低于亚马逊的 35。  
- 查理·芒格曾投资阿里巴巴，但因竞争激烈和风险因素而出售。  
- 投资阿里巴巴面临中国政府监管和透明度问题，可能不适合普通投资者。  

阿里巴巴的股票是否值得沃伦·巴菲特投资？