<p>作者：朱尔斯·里默</p>
<p>华尔街策略师表示，通货再膨胀和经济过热将有利于股票</p>
<p>股市仍未考虑美联储降息的影响。</p>
<p>“买传闻，卖事实” 是华尔街上最常被重复的格言之一，但摩根士丹利策略师迈克·威尔逊表示应忽略这一点，因为在降息周期的过程中，股市回报表现强劲。</p>
<p>威尔逊建议投资者在九月份常常出现的回调中买入，并指出债券市场已经预期到到 2026 年底将大约有五次每次 25 个基点的降息。他的研究发现，在这种环境下，股票表现良好。此外，估值通常受到较低政策利率的支撑（未来收益流以较低的利率折现，从而创造出更高的估值），以及盈利增长高于长期中位数的时期。</p>
<p>股票通常被视为对抗通胀的工具，威尔逊强调了股票回报与通胀预期之间的相关性增加，通胀预期是名义债券收益率与同期限通胀挂钩债券收益率之间的差异。对威尔逊而言，这表明股市预期白宫将在降息的同时推动经济过热。</p>
<p>这种 “再膨胀” 策略让威尔逊想起特朗普的第一任期。</p>
<p>根据摩根士丹利的说法，股票与通胀预期之间的强正相关性是早期周期的指标。</p>
<p>不过，威尔逊强调，这种政策组合并非没有风险。九月份股票的季节性疲软是众所周知的，但其他风险包括未来几个月消费者物价指数的上升，可能会减少交易者预期的降息次数。</p>
<p>另一个可能的脆弱性可能是非常疲软的就业数据，这可能重新唤起对经济增长的担忧。不过，威尔逊指出，如果市场开始预期更多的降息而不是更少，这实际上可能对股票是利好。</p>
<p>自四月解放日以来，威尔逊对美国股票持乐观态度，主要是因为盈利修正的反弹以及美元 DXY 走弱带来的现金流预期和经营杠杆的顺风。人工智能等其他主题以及闲置现金的税收节省进一步增强了乐观情绪。</p>
<p>他还将美国企业中一位新 CEO 的到来与在实施新战略之前先抛出坏消息进行比较，类似于特朗普在推出减税和放松管制等增长积极措施之前，明显前置了增长负面政策（如 DOGE 和关税）。</p>
<p>报告特别强调小盘股 RUT 是近期表现强劲的一个领域，无论是绝对表现还是相对表现，但他说：“这种超额表现在长期背景下几乎不明显。” 威尔逊预测小盘股有望超越表现，特别是如果美联储表现出准备在市场定价之前采取行动。</p>
<p>标准普尔 500 指数 SPX 今年上涨了 10%，尽管股市期货在周二指向华尔街开盘时的亏损。</p>
<p>-朱尔斯·里默</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>

摩根士丹利

<p>摩根士丹利的迈克·威尔逊认为，股市尚未反映预期美联储降息的积极影响。他建议投资者在市场回调时买入，并指出股票在降息周期中通常表现良好。威尔逊强调了股票回报与通胀预期之间的强相关性，暗示了对股票的有利环境。然而，他警告存在风险，包括可能影响降息预期的经济指标疲软。威尔逊对美国股票，特别是小盘股保持乐观，认为市场正在适应这些变化</p>

<p>By Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：朱尔斯·里默</p>
</div><p>Reflation and running the economy hot will be good for stocks, says Wall Street strategist</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街策略师表示，通货再膨胀和经济过热将有利于股票</p>
</div><p>The stock market still hasn't priced in impact of Fed interest-rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市仍未考虑美联储降息的影响。</p>
</div><p>Buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact is one of the most oft-repeated adages on Wall Street, but Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson says to ignore it as stock-market returns are strong during the process of the rate-cutting cycle itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“买传闻，卖事实” 是华尔街上最常被重复的格言之一，但摩根士丹利策略师迈克·威尔逊表示应忽略这一点，因为在降息周期的过程中，股市回报表现强劲。</p>
</div><p>Wilson, in recommending that investors buy any of the dips that September often brings, points out that bond markets are already anticipating roughly five cuts of 25 basis points (FF00) each by the end of 2026. His research finds that stocks perform well during that kind of environment . Moreover, valuations are generally underpinned by lower policy rates (future earnings streams are discounted at a lower rate, creating higher valuations) and periods where earnings growth is above the long-term median.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威尔逊建议投资者在九月份常常出现的回调中买入，并指出债券市场已经预期到到 2026 年底将大约有五次每次 25 个基点的降息。他的研究发现，在这种环境下，股票表现良好。此外，估值通常受到较低政策利率的支撑（未来收益流以较低的利率折现，从而创造出更高的估值），以及盈利增长高于长期中位数的时期。</p>
</div><p>Stocks are often considered an inflation hedge and Wilson highlights the increased correlation between equity returns and inflation breakevens, which is the difference between nominal bond yields and those offered by inflation-linked bonds of the same maturity. For Wilson, this suggests the stock market anticipates the White House will run the economy hot while cutting rates at the same time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票通常被视为对抗通胀的工具，威尔逊强调了股票回报与通胀预期之间的相关性增加，通胀预期是名义债券收益率与同期限通胀挂钩债券收益率之间的差异。对威尔逊而言，这表明股市预期白宫将在降息的同时推动经济过热。</p>
</div><p>This &#34;reflation&#34; strategy very much reminds Wilson of Trump's first term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种 “再膨胀” 策略让威尔逊想起特朗普的第一任期。</p>
</div><p>A strong positive correlation between stocks and inflation breakevens is an early-cycle indicator, according to Morgan Stanley.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据摩根士丹利的说法，股票与通胀预期之间的强正相关性是早期周期的指标。</p>
</div><p>Wilson is at pains to stress, though, that the policy mix is not without risk. That September has weak seasonality for stocks is well-established but other risks include hotter consumer price index readings in coming months that could potentially reduce the number of rate cuts that traders can expect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，威尔逊强调，这种政策组合并非没有风险。九月份股票的季节性疲软是众所周知的，但其他风险包括未来几个月消费者物价指数的上升，可能会减少交易者预期的降息次数。</p>
</div><p>Another possible vulnerability might be a very weak payrolls number that reawakens growth fears. Wilson makes the point, though, that this could actually be bullish for stocks if the markets then start discounting more rate cuts, not fewer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个可能的脆弱性可能是非常疲软的就业数据，这可能重新唤起对经济增长的担忧。不过，威尔逊指出，如果市场开始预期更多的降息而不是更少，这实际上可能对股票是利好。</p>
</div><p>Wilson has been bullish on U.S. stocks since Liberation Day in April, chiefly because of rebounding earnings revisions and the tailwind for cashflow expectations and operating leverage provided by dollar DXY weakness. Other themes like AI and the extent of sidelined cash tax savings fostered even more optimism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自四月解放日以来，威尔逊对美国股票持乐观态度，主要是因为盈利修正的反弹以及美元 DXY 走弱带来的现金流预期和经营杠杆的顺风。人工智能等其他主题以及闲置现金的税收节省进一步增强了乐观情绪。</p>
</div><p>He also draws an interesting comparison between a new CEO arriving somewhere in corporate America and kitchen-sinking bad news before implementing a new strategy, and Trump's apparent front-loading of growth-negative policies (like DOGE and tariffs) before the introduction of growth-positive measures like tax cuts and deregulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他还将美国企业中一位新 CEO 的到来与在实施新战略之前先抛出坏消息进行比较，类似于特朗普在推出减税和放松管制等增长积极措施之前，明显前置了增长负面政策（如 DOGE 和关税）。</p>
</div><p>The report specifically highlights small-cap stocks RUT as one area where recent performance, both absolute and relative, has been strong but &#34;this outperformance is hardly noticeable in a longer-term context,&#34; he says. WIlson predicts that small caps are set up to outperform, especially if the Fed demonstrates a preparedness to get ahead of market pricing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告特别强调小盘股 RUT 是近期表现强劲的一个领域，无论是绝对表现还是相对表现，但他说：“这种超额表现在长期背景下几乎不明显。” 威尔逊预测小盘股有望超越表现，特别是如果美联储表现出准备在市场定价之前采取行动。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 SPX has gained 10% this year, though stock-market futures pointed to opening losses on Wall Street on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 指数 SPX 今年上涨了 10%，尽管股市期货在周二指向华尔街开盘时的亏损。</p>
</div><p>-Jules Rimmer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-朱尔斯·里默</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
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摩根士丹利的迈克·威尔逊表示，股市尚未反映出利率下调所带来的积极影响