<p>不可否认，周三的 Powerball 预计奖金为 1.3 亿美元，实在令人心动。尽管现金价值要低得多（还要扣除大约 40% 的税），但最终来说，一张 2 美元的彩票仍然可能价值超过 5 亿美元。这将是某人投资的 12.8 亿百分比回报，假设他们只购买了一张彩票。即使他们购买了多张彩票，这仍然不是一个糟糕的回报。</p>
<p>问题是，赢得奖金的机会仅为 1/2.92 亿。也有可能会有多个赢家平分这笔奖金。</p>
<p>不过，向任何敢于下注的人致敬，这种下注的结果更可能导致 100% 的损失……即使这种损失微不足道。</p>
<p>如果你愿意承担这种风险，为什么不选择一种风险较低、赔率较高的下注方式，以换取一个相对可观、可靠的收益呢？换句话说，为什么不买股票呢？更具体地说，现在为什么不趁 <strong>Archer Aviation</strong>（ACHR -3.85%）仍在折扣价交易时试一试？</p>
<p>这就是你可能想要这样做的原因。</p>
<h2>什么是 Archer Aviation？</h2>
<p>如果你从未听说过，Archer 是一家初创公司，正在开发电池驱动的小型飞机，最终将用于飞行出租车。</p>
<p>这并不是一个听起来那么疯狂的想法。毕竟，近年来，世界在开发更轻但更强的材料方面取得了重大进展，而电动车行业也使相对轻便且能量密集的锂电池成为主流。凭借这两个关键优势，工程师在飞机设计上受到了更少的限制。</p>
<p>在 Archer，经过他们的努力，最终的结果是一架五座飞机，配备八个强大的可旋转电动马达，使其能够垂直起降（像直升机一样），但又能以快速的速度水平飞行，升力由机翼提供（像飞机一样）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzExMjEvYXJjaGVyLWF2aWF0aW9uLW1pZG5pZ2h0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzExMjEvYXJjaGVyLWF2aWF0aW9uLW1pZG5pZ2h0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Archer Aviation。</p>
<p>这不仅仅是一个概念。该公司的 Midnight 飞机已有两个原型机进行了数百次测试飞行。还有六架这样的飞机正在建造中，其中三架接近完成。</p>
<p>尽管 Midnight 尚未获得联邦航空局（FAA）完全认证以供商业使用，但它已获得了测试新飞机设计所需的几项初步认证，以确保其下一阶段的认证。</p>
<h2>未来看起来光明</h2>
<p>那么这一切将走向何方？正如所提到的，Archer 的 eVTOL（电动垂直起降）飞机的最终目标是形成空中出租车服务的骨干。</p>
<p>这并不是一个听起来那么疯狂的想法。哦，曾几何时，这确实是一个疯狂的想法。然而，随着 Archer 的 Midnight 和竞争对手 <strong>Joby Aviation</strong>（JOBY -5.48%）制造的类似飞机不断证明自己，专家们越来越期待看到这些新型灵活飞行器变得商业可行。</p>
<p>事实上，Archer 已经与航空公司 <strong>United</strong> 建立了合作关系，以在纽约市及周边地区建立空中出租车服务。相比之下，从曼哈顿市中心到附近任何机场的汽车行程可能需要一个小时或更长时间，而 Archer 的飞机可以在大约 10 分钟内完成这一点，预计每位乘客的费用在 50 到 100 美元之间。</p>
<p>不过，这不仅仅是纽约市中心。Archer 在阿联酋的混合直升机停机坪的初步设计已获得该国民航局的批准，几周前在阿布扎比开始了测试飞行。Archer Aviation 还被指定为 2028 年将在洛杉矶举行的夏季奥运会的官方空中出租车服务提供商。鉴于所有这些交易都是在客户等待 Midnight 获得 FAA 认证之前签署的，显然对这架飞机有一定的信心。</p>
<p>该行业也正在迎来相对新的顺风。在 6 月，唐纳德·特朗普总统签署了一项行政命令，要求交通部长创建一个 &#34;eVTOL [电动垂直起降] 集成试点计划（eIPP），作为 BEYOND 计划的延伸，以加速在美国安全和合法的 eVTOL 运营的部署。&#34; 这只是 Precedence Research 预计美国将在未来到 2034 年之间以近 29% 的年均增长率引领全球飞行出租车业务的原因之一。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，Archer 计划到 2030 年建立一个能够每年生产 650 辆 eVTOL 的制造设施，似乎并不不合理。</p>
<h2>风险与潜在回报相匹配</h2>
<p>这家公司仍然面临许多风险。其中最主要的是 Midnight 的 FAA 批准并不是绝对的定局，即使市场表现得好像它是。而即使 FAA 最终批准它（从现实的角度来看，这似乎更可能），也不能保证消费者会接受电池驱动的飞行出租车，即使它们确实提供相对实惠和快速的旅行，也不能保证公司能够确保所有所需的着陆区，以在其希望运营的城市建立完整的业务。而且，即使它能做到，也不能保证 Archer 能够以盈利的方式做到这一切。</p>
<p>不过，每个问题都有可能像希望的那样顺利解决。而且，Archer 一切顺利的几率比你赢得彩票的几率高出数百万倍，尽管对投资者的潜在回报远没有那么大。</p>
<p>谈到回报，分析师社区表示，Archer Aviation 的股票目前被低估。事实上，目前一年的共识目标价为 12.39 美元，比该股票的现价高出超过 30%。覆盖该公司的大多数分析师目前对 Archer 的评级为强烈买入。这对于任何新的投机交易来说，都是一个不错的开端。</p>

ACHR

<p>这篇文章将 Powerball 彩票奖金的吸引力与投资 Archer Aviation 股票进行了比较。文章强调了 Archer 在电池驱动飞行出租车方面的发展，特别提到其原型和合作伙伴关系，包括与联合航空在纽约市提供空中出租车服务的合作。文章指出，eVTOL 飞机的可行性日益增强，预计飞行出租车市场将以 29% 的年增长率增长，直到 2034 年。它暗示，投资 Archer 可能提供比高风险的 Powerball 赌博更可靠的回报</p>

<p>There's no denying it. Powerball's estimated $1.3 million jackpot for Wednesday's drawing is wildly tempting. Even though the cash value is considerably lower (then take out another 40% or so for taxes), when all is said and done, a winning $2 ticket could still be worth more than a half of a billion dollars. That would be a 12.8-billion-percent return on somebody's investment, assuming they only purchased one ticket. Even if they bought more than one ticket, though, that's still not a bad return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不可否认，周三的 Powerball 预计奖金为 1.3 亿美元，实在令人心动。尽管现金价值要低得多（还要扣除大约 40% 的税），但最终来说，一张 2 美元的彩票仍然可能价值超过 5 亿美元。这将是某人投资的 12.8 亿百分比回报，假设他们只购买了一张彩票。即使他们购买了多张彩票，这仍然不是一个糟糕的回报。</p>
</div><p>Problem? There's only a 1-in-292-million chance of winning the jackpot. It's also possible there could be more than one winner who would split this jackpot evenly between them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题是，赢得奖金的机会仅为 1/2.92 亿。也有可能会有多个赢家平分这笔奖金。</p>
</div><p>Still, kudos to anyone with the guts to make a bet that is vastly more likely to result in a 100% loss... even if that loss is negligible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，向任何敢于下注的人致敬，这种下注的结果更可能导致 100% 的损失……即使这种损失微不足道。</p>
</div><p>If you're willing to take on this sort of risk, though, why not take a lower-risk, higher-odds bet with a limited degree of downside in exchange for a respectably sized, reliable upside? In other words, why not buy stocks? More specifically right now, why not take a shot on <strong>Archer Aviation</strong>(ACHR -3.85%) while it's still trading at a discount?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你愿意承担这种风险，为什么不选择一种风险较低、赔率较高的下注方式，以换取一个相对可观、可靠的收益呢？换句话说，为什么不买股票呢？更具体地说，现在为什么不趁 <strong>Archer Aviation</strong>（ACHR -3.85%）仍在折扣价交易时试一试？</p>
</div><p>Here's why you might want to do just that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是你可能想要这样做的原因。</p>
</div><h2>What's Archer Aviation?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什么是 Archer Aviation？</h2>
</div><p>If you've never heard of it, Archer is a start-up company developing battery-powered small aircraft that will ultimately be used as flying taxis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你从未听说过，Archer 是一家初创公司，正在开发电池驱动的小型飞机，最终将用于飞行出租车。</p>
</div><p>It's not nearly as wild an idea as it might sound at first blush. After all, the world has made some serious strides in recent years in terms of developing lighter-yet-stronger materials, while the electric vehicle industry has mainstreamed relatively light and energy-dense lithium-based batteries. With these two key advantages in hand, engineers have been less constrained in their aircraft designs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是一个听起来那么疯狂的想法。毕竟，近年来，世界在开发更轻但更强的材料方面取得了重大进展，而电动车行业也使相对轻便且能量密集的锂电池成为主流。凭借这两个关键优势，工程师在飞机设计上受到了更少的限制。</p>
</div><p>At Archer, the end result of their efforts has been a five-passenger aircraft with eight powerful pivoting electric motors that allow it to take off and land vertically (like a helicopter), but fly horizontally at a fast clip with its lift provided by its wings (like an airplane).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Archer，经过他们的努力，最终的结果是一架五座飞机，配备八个强大的可旋转电动马达，使其能够垂直起降（像直升机一样），但又能以快速的速度水平飞行，升力由机翼提供（像飞机一样）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzExMjEvYXJjaGVyLWF2aWF0aW9uLW1pZG5pZ2h0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831121%2Farcher-aviation-midnight.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Archer Aviation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Archer Aviation。</p>
</div><p>It's no mere concept, either. Two prototypes of the company's Midnight aircraft have already made hundreds of test flights each. Six more such aircraft are under construction, and three of them are near completion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这不仅仅是一个概念。该公司的 Midnight 飞机已有两个原型机进行了数百次测试飞行。还有六架这样的飞机正在建造中，其中三架接近完成。</p>
</div><p>Although the Midnight has not yet been fully certified for commercial use by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), it has won several of the initial certifications required to test-fly a new aircraft design in order to secure its next stage of certifications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Midnight 尚未获得联邦航空局（FAA）完全认证以供商业使用，但它已获得了测试新飞机设计所需的几项初步认证，以确保其下一阶段的认证。</p>
</div><h2>The future looks bright</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>未来看起来光明</h2>
</div><p>So where's this all going? As was noted, the ultimate goal is for Archer's eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) aircraft to form the backbone of air taxi services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么这一切将走向何方？正如所提到的，Archer 的 eVTOL（电动垂直起降）飞机的最终目标是形成空中出租车服务的骨干。</p>
</div><p>That's not quite as wild a notion as it might sound on the surface, either. Oh, at one time it would have been, to be sure. However, as Archer's Midnight and a similar aircraft made by rival <strong>Joby Aviation</strong>(JOBY -5.48%) continue to prove themselves, experts increasingly expect to see these new kinds of flexible flying vehicles become commercially viable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是一个听起来那么疯狂的想法。哦，曾几何时，这确实是一个疯狂的想法。然而，随着 Archer 的 Midnight 和竞争对手 <strong>Joby Aviation</strong>（JOBY -5.48%）制造的类似飞机不断证明自己，专家们越来越期待看到这些新型灵活飞行器变得商业可行。</p>
</div><p>In fact, Archer has already forged a partnership with airline <strong>United</strong> to establish an air taxi service in and around New York City. Whereas a car trip between downtown Manhattan and any of its nearby airports might take an hour or more through the metropolitan area's congested streets, Archer's aircraft could manage that point-to-point trip in about 10 minutes at an expected cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 to $100 per passenger.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，Archer 已经与航空公司 <strong>United</strong> 建立了合作关系，以在纽约市及周边地区建立空中出租车服务。相比之下，从曼哈顿市中心到附近任何机场的汽车行程可能需要一个小时或更长时间，而 Archer 的飞机可以在大约 10 分钟内完成这一点，预计每位乘客的费用在 50 到 100 美元之间。</p>
</div><p>It's not just downtown New York, though. Archer's initial designs for a hybrid heliport in the United Arab Emirates have been approved by that nation's General Civil Aviation Agency, with test flights in Abu Dhabi beginning just a few weeks ago. Archer Aviation has also been named the official air taxi service provider for the 2028 Summer Olympics scheduled to take place in Los Angeles. Given that all of these deals have been inked without the customers waiting for the Midnight to earn FAA certification, clearly there's some confidence in the aircraft.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，这不仅仅是纽约市中心。Archer 在阿联酋的混合直升机停机坪的初步设计已获得该国民航局的批准，几周前在阿布扎比开始了测试飞行。Archer Aviation 还被指定为 2028 年将在洛杉矶举行的夏季奥运会的官方空中出租车服务提供商。鉴于所有这些交易都是在客户等待 Midnight 获得 FAA 认证之前签署的，显然对这架飞机有一定的信心。</p>
</div><p>The industry's catching a relatively new tailwind too. In June, President Donald Trump signed an executive order requiring the secretary of transportation to create an &#34;eVTOL [electric vertical takeoff and landing] Integration Pilot Program (eIPP) as an extension of the BEYOND program to accelerate the deployment of safe and lawful eVTOL operations in the United States.&#34; This is just one of the reasons Precedence Research expects the United States to lead a worldwide flying taxi business that it forecasts will grow at an average annual rate of nearly 29% between now and 2034.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该行业也正在迎来相对新的顺风。在 6 月，唐纳德·特朗普总统签署了一项行政命令，要求交通部长创建一个 &#34;eVTOL [电动垂直起降] 集成试点计划（eIPP），作为 BEYOND 计划的延伸，以加速在美国安全和合法的 eVTOL 运营的部署。&#34; 这只是 Precedence Research 预计美国将在未来到 2034 年之间以近 29% 的年均增长率引领全球飞行出租车业务的原因之一。</p>
</div><p>In that context, Archer's goal of building a manufacturing facility capable of producing 650 eVTOLs a year by 2030 doesn't seem unreasonable at all.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，Archer 计划到 2030 年建立一个能够每年生产 650 辆 eVTOL 的制造设施，似乎并不不合理。</p>
</div><h2>The risk matches the potential reward</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>风险与潜在回报相匹配</h2>
</div><p>There are still plenty of risks for this company. Chief among them is that the Midnight's FAA approval isn't an absolute foregone conclusion, even if the market is acting as if it is. And even if the FAA ends up approving it (which, realistically speaking, seems more likely than not), there's no assurance that consumers will embrace battery-powered flying taxis even if they do offer reasonably affordable and rapid trips, just as there's no assurance the company will be able to secure all the landing zones it needs to establish full footprints in cities where it wants to operate. And, even if it does, there's no guarantee that Archer can do all of this profitably.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家公司仍然面临许多风险。其中最主要的是 Midnight 的 FAA 批准并不是绝对的定局，即使市场表现得好像它是。而即使 FAA 最终批准它（从现实的角度来看，这似乎更可能），也不能保证消费者会接受电池驱动的飞行出租车，即使它们确实提供相对实惠和快速的旅行，也不能保证公司能够确保所有所需的着陆区，以在其希望运营的城市建立完整的业务。而且，即使它能做到，也不能保证 Archer 能够以盈利的方式做到这一切。</p>
</div><p>There's a chance, though, that each of these matters will work out as well as hoped. And the odds of everything working out as hoped for Archer are millions of times better than your odds of winning the lottery are, though the potential payoff for investors isn't nearly as big.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，每个问题都有可能像希望的那样顺利解决。而且，Archer 一切顺利的几率比你赢得彩票的几率高出数百万倍，尽管对投资者的潜在回报远没有那么大。</p>
</div><p>Speaking of payoffs, for what it's worth, the analyst community says Archer Aviation stock is undervalued right now. The current one-year consensus target of $12.39 is more than 30% above the stock's present price, in fact. The majority of the analysts covering the company rate Archer a strong buy right now, as well. That's not a bad way to start out any new speculative trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谈到回报，分析师社区表示，Archer Aviation 的股票目前被低估。事实上，目前一年的共识目标价为 12.39 美元，比该股票的现价高出超过 30%。覆盖该公司的大多数分析师目前对 Archer 的评级为强烈买入。这对于任何新的投机交易来说，都是一个不错的开端。</p>
</div>

如果你对强力球彩票感到心动，为什么不考虑投资 Archer Aviation 的股票呢？