<p><strong>比特币</strong>（BTC 0.61%），全球最大的加密货币，市值超过 2.3 万亿美元，在过去一年中大幅上涨，涨幅超过 90%。但最近，这一涨势停滞，比特币自 8 月峰值以来下跌近 12%（截至 9 月 2 日）。</p>
<p>考虑到比特币历史上对利率下降的反应通常是积极的，这种情况有些奇怪。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近表示，美联储正在考虑放松货币政策，这导致市场预计美联储在 9 月会议上降息的可能性很大。比特币会反弹还是继续下跌？</p>
<h2>加密货币是不可预测的</h2>
<p>自唐纳德·特朗普在 11 月赢得总统选举以来，比特币表现极为出色，即使其他加密货币在其他挑战中挣扎或停滞不前。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE0NDAvYm9hcmRyb29tLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE0NDAvYm9hcmRyb29tLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>特朗普政府推动加密领域的放松监管，任命了支持加密的顾问和内阁首脑，甚至宣布计划启动美国战略比特币储备。监管方面的绿灯使许多机构投资者和主流金融机构将更多资本投入该领域，几乎没有对监管反击的担忧。</p>
<p>人们可能会认为，鲍威尔向市场暗示美联储在 9 月可能降息会进一步推动该领域的发展。但最近，比特币经历了一次闪电崩盘，一位持有大量比特币的投资者突然出售了价值 27 亿美元的 24,000 个比特币。</p>
<p>自那时以来，比特币的价格从每个代币超过 124,000 美元下滑至约 111,000 美元。闪电崩盘后恢复并不罕见，但这次下跌持续的时间比投资者预期的要长。很可能其他大户感到紧张，现在正在出售以锁定利润，因为这段时间的表现极为强劲。</p>
<p>也有可能加密投资者担心美联储在 9 月会议上不会实际降息，或者未来的其他降息不会实现。虽然看起来可能性很大，但在美联储 9 月会议之前仍会有经济数据发布，这可能会影响其行动。强劲的就业报告和高于预期的通胀数据可能会促使市场甚至美联储重新考虑 9 月的降息。</p>
<p>投资者还应记住，比特币只有大约 15 年的历史，市场对这一数字资产可能还有很多未知。加密货币往往不可预测，因此交易方式也不可预测。</p>
<h2>比特币会继续下跌吗？</h2>
<p>短期内会发生什么，谁也无法预测。大户可能会继续出售。如果经济数据阻止美联储在 9 月降息，或改变市场对未来降息的预期，那么比特币和其他加密市场可能会受到重创。利率上升往往会增强美元的强度，而美元与加密货币的交易历史上通常是反向的。</p>
<p>但从长远来看，我预计比特币会反弹并最终上涨。无论这是否会成真，市场上相当一部分人认为比特币的供应量有限，只有 2100 万个，类似于数字黄金，因此是对抗通胀的对冲工具。特朗普签署了一项行政命令，使投资者更容易将比特币纳入他们的退休投资组合，而全球最大的资产管理公司 <strong>黑石</strong> 甚至表示，投资者应该放心在多资产投资组合中分配一小部分资本给比特币。</p>
<p>比特币在过去经历过几次巨大的下跌，随后反弹并达到新高。我认为这次也不会例外。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特币自 8 月峰值以来已下跌近 12%，目前交易价格约为 111,000 美元。尽管今年表现强劲，涨幅超过 90%，但近期市场动态，包括一位主要投资者的大规模抛售，导致了不确定性。美联储可能的降息措施可能会影响比特币的复苏，但经济数据可能会影响美联储的决策。虽然短期预测不确定，但长期预期依然乐观，比特币被视为对抗通胀的工具，以及类似于黄金的数字资产</p>

<p><strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC 0.61%), the world's largest cryptocurrency with a market cap of more than $2.3 trillion, has gone on a big run during the past year, up more than 90%. But lately, the rally has stalled and Bitcoin is down almost 12% from its August peak (as of Sept. 2).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特币</strong>（BTC 0.61%），全球最大的加密货币，市值超过 2.3 万亿美元，在过去一年中大幅上涨，涨幅超过 90%。但最近，这一涨势停滞，比特币自 8 月峰值以来下跌近 12%（截至 9 月 2 日）。</p>
</div><p>It's a bit odd when you consider that Bitcoin has historically responded positively to falling interest rates. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently indicated that the Fed is considering easing monetary policy, leading the market to price in a strong likelihood of an interest rate cut at the Fed's September meeting. Will Bitcoin rebound or continue to fall?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到比特币历史上对利率下降的反应通常是积极的，这种情况有些奇怪。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近表示，美联储正在考虑放松货币政策，这导致市场预计美联储在 9 月会议上降息的可能性很大。比特币会反弹还是继续下跌？</p>
</div><h2>Crypto is unpredictable</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>加密货币是不可预测的</h2>
</div><p>Since Donald Trump's presidential election win in November, Bitcoin has performed extremely well, even while other cryptocurrencies struggled or stalled amid other challenges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自唐纳德·特朗普在 11 月赢得总统选举以来，比特币表现极为出色，即使其他加密货币在其他挑战中挣扎或停滞不前。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE0NDAvYm9hcmRyb29tLTEuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831440%2Fboardroom-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>The Trump administration has pushed deregulation in the crypto sector, installed pro-crypto advisors and cabinet heads, and even announced plans to launch a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The green light on the regulatory front has led many institutional investors and mainstream financial institutions to put more capital into the sector, with few concerns about regulatory pushback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普政府推动加密领域的放松监管，任命了支持加密的顾问和内阁首脑，甚至宣布计划启动美国战略比特币储备。监管方面的绿灯使许多机构投资者和主流金融机构将更多资本投入该领域，几乎没有对监管反击的担忧。</p>
</div><p>One might have thought that Powell's indication to the market that the Fed is open to a rate cut in September would boost the sector more. But recently, Bitcoin experienced a flash crash after a Bitcoin whale, an investor holding a large amount of coins, suddenly sold 24,000 bitcoins that were worth $2.7 billion at the time of the sale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人们可能会认为，鲍威尔向市场暗示美联储在 9 月可能降息会进一步推动该领域的发展。但最近，比特币经历了一次闪电崩盘，一位持有大量比特币的投资者突然出售了价值 27 亿美元的 24,000 个比特币。</p>
</div><p>Since then, Bitcoin has floundered from more than $124,000 per token to about $111,000. It's not uncommon for recoveries to follow flash crashes, but this dip has lasted a little longer than investors might have thought. It's quite possible that other whales got nervous and are now selling to book profits after what has been an incredibly strong run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那时以来，比特币的价格从每个代币超过 124,000 美元下滑至约 111,000 美元。闪电崩盘后恢复并不罕见，但这次下跌持续的时间比投资者预期的要长。很可能其他大户感到紧张，现在正在出售以锁定利润，因为这段时间的表现极为强劲。</p>
</div><p>It's also possible that crypto investors are nervous the Fed won't actually cut interest rates at its September meeting, or that other future rate cuts won't come to fruition. While it seems likely, there is still economic data that will come out before the Fed's September meeting that could influence its actions. A solid jobs report and higher-than-expected inflation data could push the market and even the Fed to reconsider a September cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也有可能加密投资者担心美联储在 9 月会议上不会实际降息，或者未来的其他降息不会实现。虽然看起来可能性很大，但在美联储 9 月会议之前仍会有经济数据发布，这可能会影响其行动。强劲的就业报告和高于预期的通胀数据可能会促使市场甚至美联储重新考虑 9 月的降息。</p>
</div><p>Investors should also keep in mind that Bitcoin is only about 15 years old and there is likely a lot the market doesn't know about the digital asset. Crypto is often unpredictable and therefore trades in an unpredictable fashion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者还应记住，比特币只有大约 15 年的历史，市场对这一数字资产可能还有很多未知。加密货币往往不可预测，因此交易方式也不可预测。</p>
</div><h2>Will Bitcoin continue to fall?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特币会继续下跌吗？</h2>
</div><p>What happens in the near term is anyone's guess. Whales could continue selling. If economic data prevents the Fed from cutting rates in September or changes the market's expectations for rate cuts in the future, then Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market could get hit hard. Rising interest rates tend to boost the strength of the U.S. dollar, which has historically traded inversely to crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期内会发生什么，谁也无法预测。大户可能会继续出售。如果经济数据阻止美联储在 9 月降息，或改变市场对未来降息的预期，那么比特币和其他加密市场可能会受到重创。利率上升往往会增强美元的强度，而美元与加密货币的交易历史上通常是反向的。</p>
</div><p>But long term, I expect Bitcoin to rebound and eventually move higher. Whether it turns out to be true, a significant portion of the market believes Bitcoin, with its finite supply of 21 million coins, is akin to digital gold and therefore a hedge against inflation. Trump has signed an executive order making it easier for investors to add Bitcoin to their retirement portfolios, and <strong>BlackRock</strong>, the world's largest asset manager, has even said that investors should feel OK allocating a small portion of capital in a multi-asset portfolio to Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但从长远来看，我预计比特币会反弹并最终上涨。无论这是否会成真，市场上相当一部分人认为比特币的供应量有限，只有 2100 万个，类似于数字黄金，因此是对抗通胀的对冲工具。特朗普签署了一项行政命令，使投资者更容易将比特币纳入他们的退休投资组合，而全球最大的资产管理公司 <strong>黑石</strong> 甚至表示，投资者应该放心在多资产投资组合中分配一小部分资本给比特币。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin has experienced several huge declines in the past, only to rebound and reach new highs. I see no reason that won't happen again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币在过去经历过几次巨大的下跌，随后反弹并达到新高。我认为这次也不会例外。</p>
</div>

Bitcoin Is Down 12% From Its August Record. Will It Continue to Fall?

- 比特币在过去一年上涨超过 90%，但近期下跌近 12%。  
- 美联储主席表示可能降息，市场对此反应强烈。  
- 大量比特币鲸鱼抛售导致价格波动，未来走势仍不确定。  

比特币自八月创纪录以来已下跌 12%。它会继续下跌吗？