<p>首先要明确一点：<strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 3.62%) 是一家优秀的公司。它拥有世界上最有价值的品牌之一，拥有一大批忠实客户，并且在时间的考验中始终展现出其创新能力。然而，这家科技巨头最近面临了一些挑战，其中之一就是关税威胁。此外，苹果在快速扩张的人工智能（AI）市场上落后于一些同样规模的科技同行。</p>
<p>人工智能为其中两家公司 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 0.17%) 和 <strong>谷歌</strong>(GOOG 8.93%)(GOOGL 9.00%) 提供的顺风，可能使它们在未来三年内的市值超过苹果。以下是亚马逊和谷歌目前看起来更具投资价值的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyMDIvcGVyc29uLXNpdHRpbmctYW5kLXdvcmtpbmctYXQtYS1kZXNrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyMDIvcGVyc29uLXNpdHRpbmctYW5kLXdvcmtpbmctYXQtYS1kZXNrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>1. 亚马逊</h2>
<p>亚马逊目前的市值为 2400 亿美元，而苹果为 34000 亿美元。这听起来差异巨大，但值得注意的是，尽管销售额较高，亚马逊在过去三年中始终以更快的速度增长收入。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e5465041afbfa077c6322be58bb820e9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="541" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e5465041afbfa077c6322be58bb820e9.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 收入（季度）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>这家电子商务专家应该能够保持这种势头，原因有几个。首先，它在云计算市场中仍然是领导者。尽管在一些最接近的竞争对手面前失去了一些市场份额，亚马逊的云业务——亚马逊网络服务（AWS）仍然表现强劲。该公司第二季度的 AWS 销售额同比增长了 17.5%，达到了 309 亿美元，超过了其他业务。AWS 也是亚马逊大部分利润的来源。</p>
<p>其次，亚马逊正在利用人工智能的崛起，得益于其通过云提供的一系列与 AI 相关的服务。该公司还在内部实施这项技术。例如，亚马逊的工业机器人利用 AI 驱动的算法来优化公司仓库中的旅行距离，使其能够更高效、经济地处理和交付包裹。</p>
<p>第三，亚马逊的广告业务应该是另一个重要的增长驱动力。截至 2024 年底，该公司的广告收入年化率为 690 亿美元，自 2020 年以来增长了两倍多。亚马逊是全球访问量最大的网页之一，使其成为广告商的一个吸引人的平台。这三个增长驱动因素——云计算、人工智能和广告——在未来三年及更长时间内都应该保持强劲的势头。</p>
<p>首席执行官安迪·贾西认为，我们仍处于云计算和人工智能革命的早期阶段。亚马逊最重要的业务——云计算，受到的关税相关担忧比苹果要小。确实，如果特朗普总统的政策导致经济衰退，消费者和企业的支出将减少，从而导致该公司的电子商务和云业务收入下降。即便如此，这一潜在挑战也会影响苹果。此外，苹果可能还需要应对来自国外进口商品的高额关税，这将扰乱其主要的收入和利润来源。</p>
<p>最后，亚马逊的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 34.6，可能高于苹果的 29.2，但前者的溢价是当之无愧的。亚马逊在未来几年内有望超越苹果，成为市值更高的公司。它应该能够在更长时间内交出优秀的业绩。</p>
<h2>2. 谷歌</h2>
<p>谷歌的市值为 2.5 万亿美元。在过去三年中，它的收入增长速度也比苹果快得多，且在季度销售额上并未超过这家 iPhone 制造商。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eaf04632e674db013a47ff7845a4e4e6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="541" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eaf04632e674db013a47ff7845a4e4e6.png"/></p>
<p>GOOG 收入（季度）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>谷歌的广告业务仍然是其最大的销售来源，得益于该公司在搜索领域的主导地位。即使是 AI 聊天机器人也未对谷歌的搜索帝国产生重大影响，尤其是该公司已经适应了这一新环境。谷歌已将现在非常成功的 AI 概述添加到其搜索引擎中。在其他方面，该公司的云和 AI 业务正在帮助推动收入的快速增长。在第二季度，谷歌的云部门同比增长了近 32%，远快于 AWS。</p>
<p>谷歌的母公司最近与 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 签署了一项价值 100 亿美元、为期六年的云协议。换句话说，谷歌云的业务正在蓬勃发展。谷歌的其他业务，包括在流媒体行业处于领先地位的 YouTube，也表现良好。</p>
<p>然而，该股票的前瞻市盈率为 22，远低于亚马逊和苹果。市场仍然担心谷歌可能被迫出售其 Chrome 浏览器，作为反垄断诉讼的一部分，这可能会显著扰乱其广告业务。如果发生这种情况，谷歌的股价将会暴跌。值得记住这一风险，同时也要记住，迫使公司在高调的反垄断案件中剥离部分业务是美国政府非常罕见的结果。不过，如果谷歌能够克服这一障碍，该股票将会飙升，并且在未来三年内，表现可能足够好以超越受挫的苹果。</p>

谷歌-C

亚马逊

谷歌-A

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

<p>这篇文章预测，由于在人工智能和云服务方面的强劲增长，亚马逊和谷歌（Alphabet）可能在三年内超越苹果（Apple）的市值。亚马逊的云计算部门 AWS 和其广告业务是主要的增长动力，而谷歌的云部门和搜索主导地位也为其收入增长做出了贡献。尽管存在潜在风险，这两家公司在未来成功的定位良好，亚马逊的前瞻市盈率为 34.6，谷歌为 22，而苹果为 29.2</p>

<p>Let's get one thing out of the way: <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 3.62%) is an excellent company. It boasts one of the most valuable brand names in the world, an army of loyal customers, and has consistently proven its innovative qualities over time. However, the tech leader has faced challenges lately, one of which is the threat of tariffs. Furthermore, Apple has fallen behind some of its similarly sized tech peers in the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence (AI) market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先要明确一点：<strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 3.62%) 是一家优秀的公司。它拥有世界上最有价值的品牌之一，拥有一大批忠实客户，并且在时间的考验中始终展现出其创新能力。然而，这家科技巨头最近面临了一些挑战，其中之一就是关税威胁。此外，苹果在快速扩张的人工智能（AI）市场上落后于一些同样规模的科技同行。</p>
</div><p>The tailwind AI is providing to two of them, <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 0.17%) and <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 8.93%)(GOOGL 9.00%), could enable both to surpass Apple in terms of market capitalization within the next three years. Here's why Amazon and Alphabet look like better buys right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能为其中两家公司 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN 0.17%) 和 <strong>谷歌</strong>(GOOG 8.93%)(GOOGL 9.00%) 提供的顺风，可能使它们在未来三年内的市值超过苹果。以下是亚马逊和谷歌目前看起来更具投资价值的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MjkyMDIvcGVyc29uLXNpdHRpbmctYW5kLXdvcmtpbmctYXQtYS1kZXNrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F829202%2Fperson-sitting-and-working-at-a-desk.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>1. Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 亚马逊</h2>
</div><p>Amazon's current market cap is $2.4 billion, compared to Apple's $3.4 trillion. That sounds like a massive difference, but it's worth noting that Amazon has consistently grown its revenue faster than its peers over the past three years, despite having higher sales numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊目前的市值为 2400 亿美元，而苹果为 34000 亿美元。这听起来差异巨大，但值得注意的是，尽管销售额较高，亚马逊在过去三年中始终以更快的速度增长收入。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e5465041afbfa077c6322be58bb820e9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e5465041afbfa077c6322be58bb820e9.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 收入（季度）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>The e-commerce specialist should maintain that momentum for several reasons. First, it remains a leader in the cloud computing market. Even as it loses ground to some of its closest competitors, Amazon's cloud unit, Amazon Web Services (AWS), remains a strong performer. The company's AWS sales in the second quarter increased by 17.5% year over year to $30.9 billion, outpacing the rest of the business. AWS is also responsible for most of Amazon's profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家电子商务专家应该能够保持这种势头，原因有几个。首先，它在云计算市场中仍然是领导者。尽管在一些最接近的竞争对手面前失去了一些市场份额，亚马逊的云业务——亚马逊网络服务（AWS）仍然表现强劲。该公司第二季度的 AWS 销售额同比增长了 17.5%，达到了 309 亿美元，超过了其他业务。AWS 也是亚马逊大部分利润的来源。</p>
</div><p>Second, Amazon is capitalizing on the rise of AI, thanks to a suite of AI-related services it offers through its cloud. The company is also implementing the technology in-house. For instance, Amazon's industrial robots utilize AI-powered algorithms to optimize travel distances in the company's warehouses, enabling them to handle and deliver packages more efficiently and cost-effectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，亚马逊正在利用人工智能的崛起，得益于其通过云提供的一系列与 AI 相关的服务。该公司还在内部实施这项技术。例如，亚马逊的工业机器人利用 AI 驱动的算法来优化公司仓库中的旅行距离，使其能够更高效、经济地处理和交付包裹。</p>
</div><p>Third, Amazon's advertising business should represent yet another important growth driver. As of the end of 2024, the company's advertising revenue run rate was $69 billion, more than doubling since 2020. Amazon is one of the most visited websites in the world, making it an attractive hub for advertisers. These three growth drivers -- the cloud, AI, and advertising-- should maintain solid momentum in the next three years, and well beyond that, for that matter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，亚马逊的广告业务应该是另一个重要的增长驱动力。截至 2024 年底，该公司的广告收入年化率为 690 亿美元，自 2020 年以来增长了两倍多。亚马逊是全球访问量最大的网页之一，使其成为广告商的一个吸引人的平台。这三个增长驱动因素——云计算、人工智能和广告——在未来三年及更长时间内都应该保持强劲的势头。</p>
</div><p>CEO Andy Jassy believes we are still in the early innings of the cloud and AI revolutions. Amazon's most important business, cloud computing, is less exposed than Apple to tariff-related concerns. True, if President Donald Trump's policies lead to an economic downturn, spending will decrease for consumers and businesses, resulting in lower revenue for the company's e-commerce and cloud units. Even so, this potential challenge would also impact Apple. Additionally, the latter may have to contend with heavy tariffs on imported goods from abroad, which would disrupt its primary source of revenue and profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席执行官安迪·贾西认为，我们仍处于云计算和人工智能革命的早期阶段。亚马逊最重要的业务——云计算，受到的关税相关担忧比苹果要小。确实，如果特朗普总统的政策导致经济衰退，消费者和企业的支出将减少，从而导致该公司的电子商务和云业务收入下降。即便如此，这一潜在挑战也会影响苹果。此外，苹果可能还需要应对来自国外进口商品的高额关税，这将扰乱其主要的收入和利润来源。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, Amazon's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) of 34.6 may be higher than Apple's 29.2, but the former's premium is well-deserved. Amazon is well-positioned to outpace Apple in the next few years and become a more valuable company by market cap. It should deliver excellent results well beyond that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，亚马逊的前瞻市盈率（P/E）为 34.6，可能高于苹果的 29.2，但前者的溢价是当之无愧的。亚马逊在未来几年内有望超越苹果，成为市值更高的公司。它应该能够在更长时间内交出优秀的业绩。</p>
</div><h2>2. Alphabet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 谷歌</h2>
</div><p>Alphabet's market cap is $2.5 trillion. It has also grown its revenue faster than Apple much more often than not in the past three years, and has not surpassed the iPhone maker in quarterly sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌的市值为 2.5 万亿美元。在过去三年中，它的收入增长速度也比苹果快得多，且在季度销售额上并未超过这家 iPhone 制造商。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eaf04632e674db013a47ff7845a4e4e6.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eaf04632e674db013a47ff7845a4e4e6.png"/></p>
<p>GOOG Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOG 收入（季度）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Alphabet's advertising business remains its biggest source of sales, thanks to the company's dominance in search. Even AI chatbots haven't made a significant impact on Alphabet's search empire, especially as the company has adapted to this new landscape. Alphabet has added the now highly successful AI overviews to its search engine. Elsewhere, the company's cloud and AI businesses are helping supercharge top-line growth. In the second quarter, Alphabet's cloud division grew by almost 32% year over year, much faster than even AWS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌的广告业务仍然是其最大的销售来源，得益于该公司在搜索领域的主导地位。即使是 AI 聊天机器人也未对谷歌的搜索帝国产生重大影响，尤其是该公司已经适应了这一新环境。谷歌已将现在非常成功的 AI 概述添加到其搜索引擎中。在其他方面，该公司的云和 AI 业务正在帮助推动收入的快速增长。在第二季度，谷歌的云部门同比增长了近 32%，远快于 AWS。</p>
</div><p>The parent company of Google recently signed a $10 billion, six-year cloud deal with <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>. In other words, business is booming for Google Cloud. The rest of Alphabet's business, including YouTube, a leader in the streaming industry, is also performing well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌的母公司最近与 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 签署了一项价值 100 亿美元、为期六年的云协议。换句话说，谷歌云的业务正在蓬勃发展。谷歌的其他业务，包括在流媒体行业处于领先地位的 YouTube，也表现良好。</p>
</div><p>Yet, the stock's forward P/E is 22, much lower than Amazon's and Apple's. The market remains concerned that Alphabet may be forced to sell its Chrome browser as part of an antitrust lawsuit, which could significantly disrupt its advertising business. If that happens, Alphabet's shares will plunge. It's worth keeping that risk in mind, while also remembering that forcing companies to divest part of their operations in high-profile antitrust cases is a very rare outcome for the U.S. government. If Alphabet can overcome this obstacle, though, the stock will soar and, over the next three years, could perform well enough to overtake the battered Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，该股票的前瞻市盈率为 22，远低于亚马逊和苹果。市场仍然担心谷歌可能被迫出售其 Chrome 浏览器，作为反垄断诉讼的一部分，这可能会显著扰乱其广告业务。如果发生这种情况，谷歌的股价将会暴跌。值得记住这一风险，同时也要记住，迫使公司在高调的反垄断案件中剥离部分业务是美国政府非常罕见的结果。不过，如果谷歌能够克服这一障碍，该股票将会飙升，并且在未来三年内，表现可能足够好以超越受挫的苹果。</p>
</div>

Prediction: 2 Stocks That'll Be Worth More Than Apple 3 Years From Now

- 苹果公司面临关税威胁及人工智能市场竞争压力。  
- 亚马逊和谷歌在云计算和广告业务上增长迅速。  
- 预计未来三年内，亚马逊和谷歌可能超越苹果市值。

预测：三年后两只股票的价值将超过苹果