<p>美国股市可能正在创下新高，但杠杆 ETF 的资金流动表明市场正变得更加战术性而非狂热。<strong>Edward Egilinsky</strong>，<strong>Direxion ETFs</strong> 的董事总经理兼另类投资负责人，周四表示，在八月份，投资者从普通的看涨押注转向对冲和获利了结。</p>
<p>“你知道，所有在观看的人，这并不令人惊讶。美国市场处于历史高位，至少大型股和巨型股是如此，” Egilinsky 在 Benzinga 的 Premarket Playbook 中说道。“所以我们基本上看到的是，八月份的资金流入有所减轻。我们看到大多数人希望在这些走势的熊市一侧进行交易，寻找某种程度的回撤。而且我们看到了一些在看涨产品中的获利了结。”</p>
<p>“你提到像黄金矿业股这样的股票，今年一直在上涨。所以我们并不惊讶看到大多数看涨基金出现一些资金流出，而看跌基金则出现资金流入，尤其是在市场处于这种水平时，人们正在获利了结，” 他补充道。</p>
<h2>小型股反弹面临美联储考验</h2>
<p>即使在杠杆交易之外，投资者也在思考最近的轮动是否能够持续，特别是在小型股方面。Egilinsky 表示，目前尚不确定小型股是否正在发生轮动。</p>
<p>“我认为九月份的美联储会议已经在市场预期中，基于美联储期货，基本上有 90% 以上的概率会在九月份降息。所以他们会关注美联储的表态。如果美联储说我们可能只会进行一次降息，那么这可能就是小型股反弹的终结。你可能会看到轮动再次回落。”</p>
<p><strong>另请阅读：小型股 ETF 刚刚成为热门新交易——感谢鲍威尔</strong></p>
<h2>对冲而不触发税收</h2>
<p>Direxion 的基于指数和单只股票的杠杆 ETF 也被战术性地用作对冲工具。</p>
<p>当被问及这些基金是否被投资者用来规避卖出和实现资本收益时，Egilinsky 表示：“我们的 ETF 是为短期活跃交易者设计的。你必须每天监控这些。它们并不是为了税务效率而设计的。”</p>
<p>“话虽如此，如果你想对冲某只个股的收益，例如，你可以使用我们的非杠杆反向 ETF，这只是反向某只个股或广泛指数（如标准普尔 500）的当日上涨。因此，这些工具，反向基金可以用来对冲潜在的长期收益，特别是在应税账户中。”</p>
<p>“然而，无论你想维持什么样的对冲，你至少必须经常进行再平衡，以确保你维持所需对冲的百分比，” 他说。</p>
<h2>Palantir：战术交易的案例研究</h2>
<p>使用反向 ETF 进行对冲的策略在 <strong>Palantir Technologies Inc</strong> PLTR 等股票中得到了实际应用，该股今年从个位数飙升至三位数的高位。</p>
<p>“它们能否被用来保护收益？是的。你需要每天监控它们吗？当然需要。杠杆点越高，你就越需要战术性，” 他解释道，并补充说 <strong>Direxion Daily PLTR Bear 1X Shares</strong> PLTD 是投资者在波动期间使用的产品之一。</p>
<p>“在八月份，你看到，从峰值到谷底，月内大约有 20% 的回撤。Palantir 在这个月几乎没有什么波动，但月内波动非常剧烈。所以正如你所说，对于能够利用这一点的短期战术交易者来说，PLTD 可能是人们在八月份显著下跌期间用来进行直接做空或对冲一些收益的工具。”</p>
<h2>巨型科技和人工智能交易仍然活跃</h2>
<p>在巨型科技和人工智能交易中，同样的战略思维也存在。谷歌的反垄断裁决对 <strong>Alphabet Inc.</strong> GOOGGOOGL 和 <strong>Apple Inc</strong>. AAPL 产生了积极影响，投资者借助 Direxion 的杠杆单只股票 ETF 捕捉到了这些走势。</p>
<p>“苹果在一个阻力位上，我知道你关注技术面，正好在 238 区域。如果它能突破 240，你可能会看到更高的价格，” Egilinsky 说道。</p>
<p>“当然，你可以通过头条新闻来进行交易。我们有整个杠杆和反向单只股票的系列，2 倍看涨，反向看跌。在苹果的 2 倍看涨中，是 <strong>Direxion Daily AAPL Bull 2X Shares</strong> AAPU。在反向 1 倍看跌中，是 <strong>Direxion Daily AAPL Bear 1X Shares</strong> AAPD。”</p>
<p>“当然，我们在 Mag 7 上有所有的杠杆反向单只股票。如果你想单独交易，或者想集体交易，我们有一个等权重的 Mag 7。你可以在 Mag 7 上进行 2 倍看涨和非杠杆反向看跌的交易，” 他补充道。</p>
<h2>八月 ETF 资金流动确认了转变</h2>
<p>Egilinsky 表示，资金流动反映出即使在市场创下历史新高的情况下，交易者也并非盲目看涨。</p>
<p>八月份，<strong>Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares</strong> SOXS、<strong>Direxion Daily S&amp;P 500 Bear</strong> SPXS、<strong>Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares</strong> DUST 和 <strong>Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares</strong> JDUST 等基金出现资金流入，同时在 Palantir 和 <strong>Eli Lilly And Co</strong> LLY 等个股回调期间也出现了选择性的看涨需求。</p>
<p>资金流出 “主要集中在看涨基金上”，反映出在多个行业达到 52 周高点甚至历史高点后，投资者的获利了结。</p>
<h2>自律仍然是核心规则</h2>
<p>对于杠杆 ETF 交易者来说，Egilinsky 的建议是一样的：时机、纪律和每天监控并不是可选的。</p>
<p>“这些是路径依赖的工具。这在英语中意味着什么？趋势是你的朋友，” 他说。“如果某件事情需要更长时间才能朝着你的方向发展，那么你可能会亏损的可能性就越大。因此，时机对这些工具来说很重要。”</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>标准普尔 500 指数正被黄金压制——上一次发生这种情况时，结果并不好</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>图像由人工智能通过 Midjourney 生成。</em></p>

PLTR

<p>随着美国股票达到新高，ETF 交易者正在调整策略，从看涨头寸转向对冲和获利了结。Direxion 的 Edward Egilinsky 指出，资金流入减少，空头基金活动增加。即将召开的美联储会议可能会影响小盘股的轮动。投资者正在战术性地使用杠杆 ETF 进行对冲，以避免触发税收，特别是在像 Palantir 这样的波动性股票中。大型科技股仍然活跃，交易者利用单只股票 ETF 来利用市场波动</p>

<p>American equities might be printing new highs, but leveraged ETF flows are suggesting a market that is becoming more tactical rather than euphoric. <strong>Edward Egilinsky</strong>, managing director and head of Alternative Investments at <strong>Direxion ETFs</strong>, on Thursday said that in August, there was a move away from vanilla bullish wagers to hedging and taking profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国股市可能正在创下新高，但杠杆 ETF 的资金流动表明市场正变得更加战术性而非狂热。<strong>Edward Egilinsky</strong>，<strong>Direxion ETFs</strong> 的董事总经理兼另类投资负责人，周四表示，在八月份，投资者从普通的看涨押注转向对冲和获利了结。</p>
</div><p>“You know, everybody that’s watching, it’s no surprise. The U.S. markets are at record highs, at least the large cap and mega cap stocks,” Egilinsky told Benzinga’s Premarket Playbook. “So what we’ve seen basically is a little bit of lighter flows in August in terms of inflows. We have seen mostly people looking to trade the bear side of a lot of these moves, looking for some level of retracement. And we’ve seen some profit taking in the bull product.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“你知道，所有在观看的人，这并不令人惊讶。美国市场处于历史高位，至少大型股和巨型股是如此，” Egilinsky 在 Benzinga 的 Premarket Playbook 中说道。“所以我们基本上看到的是，八月份的资金流入有所减轻。我们看到大多数人希望在这些走势的熊市一侧进行交易，寻找某种程度的回撤。而且我们看到了一些在看涨产品中的获利了结。”</p>
</div><p>“You mentioned like gold miners that’s been ripping all year. So we’re not surprised we see a little bit of outflows in the bull funds for the most part and inflows in the bear funds, especially when you get markets at these type of levels, people are taking profits,” he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“你提到像黄金矿业股这样的股票，今年一直在上涨。所以我们并不惊讶看到大多数看涨基金出现一些资金流出，而看跌基金则出现资金流入，尤其是在市场处于这种水平时，人们正在获利了结，” 他补充道。</p>
</div><h2>Small-Cap Rally Faces Fed Test</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>小型股反弹面临美联储考验</h2>
</div><p>Even outside leveraged trades, investors are wondering if the recent rotation will hold up, especially in small-cap stocks. Egilinsky said that it remains to be determined whether the rotation is happening in small-cap stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在杠杆交易之外，投资者也在思考最近的轮动是否能够持续，特别是在小型股方面。Egilinsky 表示，目前尚不确定小型股是否正在发生轮动。</p>
</div><p>“I think the Fed meeting in September, is baked in the cake already, based on the Fed futures. The probability, basically talking 90%+ of a cut in September. So they’ll be looking at what the Fed says. And if the Fed says we might be one and done here, you know, that might be it for the small-cap rally. And you might see that rotation right back out.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我认为九月份的美联储会议已经在市场预期中，基于美联储期货，基本上有 90% 以上的概率会在九月份降息。所以他们会关注美联储的表态。如果美联储说我们可能只会进行一次降息，那么这可能就是小型股反弹的终结。你可能会看到轮动再次回落。”</p>
</div><p><strong>Also Read: Small-Cap ETFs Just Became The Hot New Trade—Thanks To Powell</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：小型股 ETF 刚刚成为热门新交易——感谢鲍威尔</strong></p>
</div><h2>Hedging Without Triggering Taxes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对冲而不触发税收</h2>
</div><p>Direxion’s index-based and single-stock leveraged ETFs are also tactically being used as hedges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Direxion 的基于指数和单只股票的杠杆 ETF 也被战术性地用作对冲工具。</p>
</div><p>Asked if the funds are used by investors to sidestep selling and realizing capital gains, Egilinsky said: “Our ETFs are designed for short term active traders. You got to monitor these on a day to day basis. They’re not designed to be tax efficient.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当被问及这些基金是否被投资者用来规避卖出和实现资本收益时，Egilinsky 表示：“我们的 ETF 是为短期活跃交易者设计的。你必须每天监控这些。它们并不是为了税务效率而设计的。”</p>
</div><p>“Now, with that said, if you want to hedge gains in an individual stock, for example, then you could possibly use our non leveraged inverse ETFs, which is just inverse whatever the upside is for that given day of a given single stock or broad or broad index like the S&amp;P 500. So those could be used, those tools, the inverse funds to hedge potential long gains, especially in taxable accounts.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“话虽如此，如果你想对冲某只个股的收益，例如，你可以使用我们的非杠杆反向 ETF，这只是反向某只个股或广泛指数（如标准普尔 500）的当日上涨。因此，这些工具，反向基金可以用来对冲潜在的长期收益，特别是在应税账户中。”</p>
</div><p>“However, whatever hedge you want to maintain, you’ve got to at least rebalance often to make sure you’re maintaining that percentage hedge of whatever you want to be hedged on,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“然而，无论你想维持什么样的对冲，你至少必须经常进行再平衡，以确保你维持所需对冲的百分比，” 他说。</p>
</div><h2>Palantir: A Case Study In Tactical Trading</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir：战术交易的案例研究</h2>
</div><p>The hedging-with-inverse-ETFs strategy has been put to real-world work in stocks such as <strong>Palantir Technologies Inc</strong> PLTR, which has sprinted from single digits to a high in the triple digits this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使用反向 ETF 进行对冲的策略在 <strong>Palantir Technologies Inc</strong> PLTR 等股票中得到了实际应用，该股今年从个位数飙升至三位数的高位。</p>
</div><p>“Could they be utilized to at least protect gains? Yes. Do you need to monitor them day to day? Of course you do. And the higher the leverage point, the more tactical you have to be,” he explained, adding that <strong>Direxion Daily PLTR Bear 1X Shares</strong> PLTD has been one product investors have employed during volatile swings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“它们能否被用来保护收益？是的。你需要每天监控它们吗？当然需要。杠杆点越高，你就越需要战术性，” 他解释道，并补充说 <strong>Direxion Daily PLTR Bear 1X Shares</strong> PLTD 是投资者在波动期间使用的产品之一。</p>
</div><p>“In August, you had, intramonth, about a 20% pullback from peak to valley. Palantir really didn’t have much of a move for the month, but intramonth, there was tremendous volatility. So like you said, for short term tactical traders that can take advantage of that, PLTD might be something people would utilize also for an outright short or like you said, to hedge some gains, especially for that swing period in August, there we had a significant decline.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在八月份，你看到，从峰值到谷底，月内大约有 20% 的回撤。Palantir 在这个月几乎没有什么波动，但月内波动非常剧烈。所以正如你所说，对于能够利用这一点的短期战术交易者来说，PLTD 可能是人们在八月份显著下跌期间用来进行直接做空或对冲一些收益的工具。”</p>
</div><h2>Mega-Cap Tech And AI Trades Remain Active</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巨型科技和人工智能交易仍然活跃</h2>
</div><p>The same strategic thinking was present in mega-cap tech and AI trades. A positive antitrust verdict for Google pushed <strong>Alphabet Inc.</strong> GOOGGOOGL and <strong>Apple Inc</strong>. AAPL to fresh highs, and investors have ridden Direxion’s lineup of leveraged single-stock ETFs to catch those moves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在巨型科技和人工智能交易中，同样的战略思维也存在。谷歌的反垄断裁决对 <strong>Alphabet Inc.</strong> GOOGGOOGL 和 <strong>Apple Inc</strong>. AAPL 产生了积极影响，投资者借助 Direxion 的杠杆单只股票 ETF 捕捉到了这些走势。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Apple on a resistance level, I know you look at technicals, is hitting right at that 238 area. If it could bust through towards 240, you might see higher prices,&#34; Egilinsky said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“苹果在一个阻力位上，我知道你关注技术面，正好在 238 区域。如果它能突破 240，你可能会看到更高的价格，” Egilinsky 说道。</p>
</div><p>&#34;There are ways you could play that, of course, off of headlines. We got the whole leverage and inverse single stock suite, 2x bull, inverse bear. On Apple, on the 2x bull, it’s <strong>Direxion Daily AAPL Bull 2X Shares</strong> AAPU. On the bear, on the inverse 1x bear, it’s <strong>Direxion Daily AAPL Bear 1X Shares</strong> AAPD.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“当然，你可以通过头条新闻来进行交易。我们有整个杠杆和反向单只股票的系列，2 倍看涨，反向看跌。在苹果的 2 倍看涨中，是 <strong>Direxion Daily AAPL Bull 2X Shares</strong> AAPU。在反向 1 倍看跌中，是 <strong>Direxion Daily AAPL Bear 1X Shares</strong> AAPD。”</p>
</div><p>“Of course, we have all the leverage inverse single stocks on the Mag 7. If you want to play it a la carte, if you want to play it collectively, we have an equal-weight Mag 7. You can play the bull and bear on that 2x bull and non-leverage inverse bear on the Mag 7 collectively,&#34; he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“当然，我们在 Mag 7 上有所有的杠杆反向单只股票。如果你想单独交易，或者想集体交易，我们有一个等权重的 Mag 7。你可以在 Mag 7 上进行 2 倍看涨和非杠杆反向看跌的交易，” 他补充道。</p>
</div><h2>August ETF Flows Confirm The Shift</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>八月 ETF 资金流动确认了转变</h2>
</div><p>Flows reflect that traders aren't blindly bullish even with markets at record highs, according to Egilinsky.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Egilinsky 表示，资金流动反映出即使在市场创下历史新高的情况下，交易者也并非盲目看涨。</p>
</div><p>August witnessed inflows into <strong>Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares</strong> SOXS, <strong>Direxion Daily S&amp;P 500 Bear</strong> SPXS, <strong>Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares</strong> DUST and <strong>Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares</strong> JDUST, together with selective bullish demand in names such as Palantir and <strong>Eli Lilly And Co</strong> LLY during pullbacks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>八月份，<strong>Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares</strong> SOXS、<strong>Direxion Daily S&amp;P 500 Bear</strong> SPXS、<strong>Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares</strong> DUST 和 <strong>Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares</strong> JDUST 等基金出现资金流入，同时在 Palantir 和 <strong>Eli Lilly And Co</strong> LLY 等个股回调期间也出现了选择性的看涨需求。</p>
</div><p>Outflows were “predominantly in bull funds for the month,” a reflection of profit-taking following several sectors reaching not only 52-week highs, but all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>资金流出 “主要集中在看涨基金上”，反映出在多个行业达到 52 周高点甚至历史高点后，投资者的获利了结。</p>
</div><h2>Discipline Remains The Core Rule</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>自律仍然是核心规则</h2>
</div><p>For leveraged ETF traders, Egilinsky’s counsel is the same: timing, discipline, and monitoring every day are not optional.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于杠杆 ETF 交易者来说，Egilinsky 的建议是一样的：时机、纪律和每天监控并不是可选的。</p>
</div><p>&#34;These are path dependent vehicles. What does that mean in English? The trend's your friend,&#34; he said. &#34;The longer it takes for something to trend in your direction, the likelihood is that you may lose money. So timing matters with these vehicles.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这些是路径依赖的工具。这在英语中意味着什么？趋势是你的朋友，” 他说。“如果某件事情需要更长时间才能朝着你的方向发展，那么你可能会亏损的可能性就越大。因此，时机对这些工具来说很重要。”</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>S&amp;P 500 Is Getting Crushed By Gold—The Last Time This Happened, It Didn’t End Well</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>标准普尔 500 指数正被黄金压制——上一次发生这种情况时，结果并不好</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图像由人工智能通过 Midjourney 生成。</em></p>
</div>

ETF Traders Are Quietly Positioning For Market Turbulence: Direxion

- 美国股市创下新高，但杠杆 ETF 流动显示市场变得更具战术性。  
- 投资者在获利了结和对冲中转向熊市产品，流入量减少。  
- 小型股的轮动能否持续，取决于美联储的政策声明。  

Direxion 表示，ETF 交易员正在悄然布局以应对市场动荡