<p>在过去三年中，没有任何颠覆性创新能像人工智能（AI）的发展那样引起华尔街的关注。为软件和系统赋予 AI 能力，承诺在全球大多数行业中实现更高的增长率或改善运营效率。</p>
<p>普华永道的分析师预计到 2030 年这一技术的可寻址市场将达到 15.7 万亿美元，因此亿万富翁投资经理和普通投资者纷纷涌向 AI 股票也就不足为奇了。</p>
<p>然而，历史一再表明，并非每家公司在热门趋势出现时都能成为赢家。随着我们进入九月，华尔街一只炙手可热的万亿级 AI 股票显得格外引人注目，似乎是一个必胜的选择，而另一只高飞的股票则发出了错误的信号。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE1OTkvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1tYXJrZXQtbGV2ZWwtMi1kYXRhLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE1OTkvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1tYXJrZXQtbGV2ZWwtMi1kYXRhLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>这只万亿级人工智能股票真是 “非凡”</h2>
<p>只有 11 家上市公司（其中 10 家在美国交易）曾经达到心理上的万亿市值高峰。这七家公司都是 “非凡七巨头” 的成员，预计都将利用 AI 硬件或应用来加速各自的增长率。</p>
<p>但在这七家市场领先的公司中，社交媒体巨头 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（META 1.52%）显得尤为非凡。</p>
<p>自 2022 年 11 月初触及 2022 年熊市低点以来，Meta 的股价已飙升超过 700%。虽然如此巨大的涨幅可能让一些人选择观望，但 Meta 正处于一个完美的位置，可以从全球经济的增长和 AI 的发展中受益。</p>
<p>首先，Meta 是一家社交媒体公司。尽管首席执行官马克·扎克伯格在 AI 数据中心基础设施上进行了大量投资，但公司近 98% 的净销售额来自其应用程序家族的广告。这些受欢迎的平台，包括 Facebook、WhatsApp、Instagram、Threads 和 Facebook Messenger，在 6 月吸引了平均 34.8 亿的日活跃用户。没有其他社交平台的日访问量能与之相提并论，Meta 在其应用上的广告投放享有强劲的需求和定价权。</p>
<p>这也将 Meta 与美国和全球经济的健康状况紧密相连。尽管衰退是经济周期中正常、健康和不可避免的方面，但它们通常会迅速解决。在二战结束后的八十年中，美国平均衰退持续仅 10 个月。相比之下，典型的经济扩张则持续约五年。这些较长的经济增长期有利于以广告驱动的运营模式。</p>
<p>同时，Meta Platforms 作为一只令人兴奋的 AI 股票，正在收获将 AI 解决方案应用于其广告平台的回报。该公司为广告客户提供生成式 AI 解决方案，使他们能够根据特定用户定制静态和视频信息。假设这能提高广告客户的点击率，那么这只会提升 Meta 的广告定价能力。</p>
<p>此外，Meta 在其资产负债表上拥有相当可观的现金储备。截止到 6 月底的季度末，公司拥有超过 470 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和可交易证券，并预计到 2025 年将产生超过 990 亿美元的净现金流。扎克伯格的公司有能力投资于更高增长的项目，并等待合适的时机进行变现。这包括扎克伯格在元宇宙解决方案上的雄心勃勃的支出。</p>
<p>最后，考虑到公司面前的机会，Meta 的估值仍然合理。现在，机会主义投资者可以以不到 25 倍的未来年收益率购买其股票，这在考虑到 Meta 历史上保守的利润指引和持续的中高个位数销售增长率时，显得相当划算。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE1OTkvbWlsaXRhcnktYXJteS1zb2xkaWVycy1zYWFzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWNvbXB1dGVyLW1pc3Npb24tcGxhbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE1OTkvbWlsaXRhcnktYXJteS1zb2xkaWVycy1zYWFzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWNvbXB1dGVyLW1pc3Npb24tcGxhbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>这只开创性的 AI 股票在错误的方向上推动着边界</h2>
<p>在另一端，有一只人工智能股票自 2023 年开始以来的回报实际上超过了 Meta。我说的是 AI 数据挖掘专家 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 0.79%）。</p>
<p>在进一步讨论之前，让我们明确一点：Palantir 是一家稳健且盈利的公司。它的吸引力在于其两个核心平台，Gotham 和 Foundry，无法大规模复制。Gotham 是联邦政府规划和监督军事任务的可信平台。至于 Foundry，它是一个快速增长的基于订阅的平台，帮助企业理解其数据并优化运营。</p>
<p>Palantir 在很大程度上轻松超越了华尔街的最高增长预期。最新季度的净销售额增长了 48%，全球商业客户数量也增长了 48%。换句话说，Palantir 在可预见的未来将没有问题维持两位数的增长率。</p>
<p>但这只开创性的 AI 股票也有需要考虑的问题。</p>
<p>首先，自 1990 年代中期互联网出现以来，每一项颠覆性创新都经历了一个最终破裂的早期泡沫。如果形成并破裂了 AI 泡沫，Palantir 的多年政府合同和 Foundry 的订阅模式最初将保护其免受销售下滑的影响。然而，公司的股票将成为目标，因为它是 AI 革命的代表之一。</p>
<p>对 Palantir 股票的更大担忧在于其估值。</p>
<p>在之前的泡沫中处于领先地位的公司，包括互联网泡沫，其股票的市销率（P/S）最高曾达到 30 到 40 倍，顶部有一点点的浮动空间。而 Palantir 的股票在八月底的市销率达到了 115 倍！没有任何一家大型公司能够在任何较长时间内维持 30 到 40 倍的市销率，更不用说三位数的市销率了。</p>
<p>虽然 Palantir 是一家稳健的公司，但其估值实在无法令人信服。考虑到风险因素远远超过潜在收益，投资者在九月份最好远离这只高飞的股票。</p>

PLTR

META

<p>这篇文章讨论了对人工智能（AI）股票日益增长的兴趣，强调 Meta Platforms 因其强大的广告收入和 AI 整合而成为最佳买入选择，自 2022 年底以来股价上涨超过 700%。相反，文章提到 Palantir Technologies，尽管其盈利和增长表现良好，但仍面临挑战。文章强调了 AI 在各个行业的潜力以及在这个被炒作的市场中谨慎投资选择的重要性</p>

<p>For the better part of the last three years, no game-changing innovation has garnered Wall Street's attention quite like the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI). Empowering software and systems with AI capabilities offers the promise of a higher growth rate or improved operating efficiency in most industries around the globe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去三年中，没有任何颠覆性创新能像人工智能（AI）的发展那样引起华尔街的关注。为软件和系统赋予 AI 能力，承诺在全球大多数行业中实现更高的增长率或改善运营效率。</p>
</div><p>With the analysts at PwC placing a $15.7 trillion addressable market on this technology by 2030, it's no surprise to see billionaire money managers and everyday investors flocking to AI stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>普华永道的分析师预计到 2030 年这一技术的可寻址市场将达到 15.7 万亿美元，因此亿万富翁投资经理和普通投资者纷纷涌向 AI 股票也就不足为奇了。</p>
</div><p>However, history has repeatedly shown that not every company can be a winner when a hyped trend emerges. As we steam ahead into September, one of Wall Street's scorching-hot trillion-dollar AI stocks stands out as a seemingly surefire buy, while another highflier is sending all the wrong signals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，历史一再表明，并非每家公司在热门趋势出现时都能成为赢家。随着我们进入九月，华尔街一只炙手可热的万亿级 AI 股票显得格外引人注目，似乎是一个必胜的选择，而另一只高飞的股票则发出了错误的信号。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE1OTkvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1tYXJrZXQtbGV2ZWwtMi1kYXRhLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831599%2Fmoney-manager-stock-chart-market-level-2-data-invest-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>This trillion-dollar artificial intelligence stock is truly &#34;magnificent&#34;</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这只万亿级人工智能股票真是 “非凡”</h2>
</div><p>Only 11 public companies (10 of which trade in the U.S.) have ever hit the psychological trillion-dollar market cap plateau. Seven of these businesses are members of the &#34;Magnificent Seven,&#34; all of which are expected to lean into AI hardware or applications to accelerate their respective growth rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只有 11 家上市公司（其中 10 家在美国交易）曾经达到心理上的万亿市值高峰。这七家公司都是 “非凡七巨头” 的成员，预计都将利用 AI 硬件或应用来加速各自的增长率。</p>
</div><p>But among these seven market-leading businesses, social media giant <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META 1.52%) stands out as truly magnificent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在这七家市场领先的公司中，社交媒体巨头 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（META 1.52%）显得尤为非凡。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Meta have soared more than 700% since hitting their 2022 bear market low in early November 2022. While such a monstrous gain might keep some folks planted firmly on the sideline, Meta finds itself perfectly positioned to benefit from a growing global economy and the evolution of AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2022 年 11 月初触及 2022 年熊市低点以来，Meta 的股价已飙升超过 700%。虽然如此巨大的涨幅可能让一些人选择观望，但 Meta 正处于一个完美的位置，可以从全球经济的增长和 AI 的发展中受益。</p>
</div><p>First and foremost, Meta is a social media company. Despite CEO Mark Zuckerberg's hefty investments in AI-data center infrastructure, almost 98% of the company's net sales derive from advertising on its family of apps. These popular destinations, which include Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, Threads, and Facebook Messenger, lured an average of 3.48 billion daily users in June. With no other social platform remotely close to this number of daily visitors, Meta enjoys strong demand and pricing power for ad placement on its apps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，Meta 是一家社交媒体公司。尽管首席执行官马克·扎克伯格在 AI 数据中心基础设施上进行了大量投资，但公司近 98% 的净销售额来自其应用程序家族的广告。这些受欢迎的平台，包括 Facebook、WhatsApp、Instagram、Threads 和 Facebook Messenger，在 6 月吸引了平均 34.8 亿的日活跃用户。没有其他社交平台的日访问量能与之相提并论，Meta 在其应用上的广告投放享有强劲的需求和定价权。</p>
</div><p>This also ties Meta to the health of the U.S. and global economy. Even though recessions are normal, healthy, and inevitable aspects of the economic cycle, they resolve rather quickly. In the eight decades since World War II ended, the average U.S. recession has resolved in just 10 months. In comparison, the typical economic expansion has stuck around for five years. These extended periods of economic growth favor ad-driven operating models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也将 Meta 与美国和全球经济的健康状况紧密相连。尽管衰退是经济周期中正常、健康和不可避免的方面，但它们通常会迅速解决。在二战结束后的八十年中，美国平均衰退持续仅 10 个月。相比之下，典型的经济扩张则持续约五年。这些较长的经济增长期有利于以广告驱动的运营模式。</p>
</div><p>What concurrently makes Meta Platforms such an exciting AI stock is that it's already reaping the rewards of applying AI solutions to its advertising platform. The company is giving its ad clients access to generative AI solutions so they can tailor static and video messages to specific users. With the assumption that this improves click-through rates for advertisers, it's only going to lift Meta's ad-pricing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同时，Meta Platforms 作为一只令人兴奋的 AI 股票，正在收获将 AI 解决方案应用于其广告平台的回报。该公司为广告客户提供生成式 AI 解决方案，使他们能够根据特定用户定制静态和视频信息。假设这能提高广告客户的点击率，那么这只会提升 Meta 的广告定价能力。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Meta has quite the cash cushion on its balance sheet. It closed out the June-ending quarter with a little over $47 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, and is pacing more than $99 billion in net cash generated from its operating activities in 2025. Zuckerberg's company has the luxury of investing in higher-growth initiatives and waiting until the time is right to monetize them. This includes Zuckerberg's ambitious spending on metaverse solutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，Meta 在其资产负债表上拥有相当可观的现金储备。截止到 6 月底的季度末，公司拥有超过 470 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和可交易证券，并预计到 2025 年将产生超过 990 亿美元的净现金流。扎克伯格的公司有能力投资于更高增长的项目，并等待合适的时机进行变现。这包括扎克伯格在元宇宙解决方案上的雄心勃勃的支出。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, Meta's valuation remains reasonable given the opportunity in front of the company. Shares can be picked up by opportunistic investors right now for less than 25 times forward-year earnings, which is a bargain considering Meta's historically conservative profit guidance and its sustained mid- to high-teens sales growth rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，考虑到公司面前的机会，Meta 的估值仍然合理。现在，机会主义投资者可以以不到 25 倍的未来年收益率购买其股票，这在考虑到 Meta 历史上保守的利润指引和持续的中高个位数销售增长率时，显得相当划算。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE1OTkvbWlsaXRhcnktYXJteS1zb2xkaWVycy1zYWFzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWNvbXB1dGVyLW1pc3Npb24tcGxhbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831599%2Fmilitary-army-soldiers-saas-artificial-intelligence-computer-mission-plan-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>This groundbreaking AI stock is pushing boundaries in all the wrong ways</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这只开创性的 AI 股票在错误的方向上推动着边界</h2>
</div><p>At the other end of the spectrum is an artificial intelligence stock that's actually outperformed Meta in the return column since 2023 began. I'm talking about AI-data mining specialist <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 0.79%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在另一端，有一只人工智能股票自 2023 年开始以来的回报实际上超过了 Meta。我说的是 AI 数据挖掘专家 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 0.79%）。</p>
</div><p>Before going any further, let's make one thing clear: Palantir is a rock-solid and profitable company. Its allure is that both of its core platforms, Gotham and Foundry, aren't replicable at scale. Gotham is the trusted platform of federal governments planning and overseeing military missions. As for Foundry, it's a rapidly growing subscription-based platform that helps businesses make sense of their data and streamline their operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在进一步讨论之前，让我们明确一点：Palantir 是一家稳健且盈利的公司。它的吸引力在于其两个核心平台，Gotham 和 Foundry，无法大规模复制。Gotham 是联邦政府规划和监督军事任务的可信平台。至于 Foundry，它是一个快速增长的基于订阅的平台，帮助企业理解其数据并优化运营。</p>
</div><p>Palantir has pretty consistently crushed the loftiest Wall Street growth forecasts with ease. Net sales jumped 48% during the latest quarter, with its global commercial customer count up a matching 48%. In other words, Palantir should have no trouble sustaining a double-digit growth rate for the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 在很大程度上轻松超越了华尔街的最高增长预期。最新季度的净销售额增长了 48%，全球商业客户数量也增长了 48%。换句话说，Palantir 在可预见的未来将没有问题维持两位数的增长率。</p>
</div><p>But there are issues to consider with this groundbreaking AI stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这只开创性的 AI 股票也有需要考虑的问题。</p>
</div><p>For starters, every game-changing innovation since the advent of the internet in the mid-1990s has navigated its way through an early stage bubble that eventually burst. If an AI bubble were to form and burst, Palantir's multiyear government contracts and subscription model for Foundry would initially protect it from a sales dropoff. Nevertheless, shares would have a clear target on their back since the company is one of the faces of the AI revolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，自 1990 年代中期互联网出现以来，每一项颠覆性创新都经历了一个最终破裂的早期泡沫。如果形成并破裂了 AI 泡沫，Palantir 的多年政府合同和 Foundry 的订阅模式最初将保护其免受销售下滑的影响。然而，公司的股票将成为目标，因为它是 AI 革命的代表之一。</p>
</div><p>The bigger concern with Palantir stock is its valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对 Palantir 股票的更大担忧在于其估值。</p>
</div><p>Companies that were on the leading edge of previous bubbles, including the dot-com bubble, saw their shares peak at price-to-sales (P/S) multiples ranging from 30 to 40, with a tiny bit of wiggle room at the top. Palantir shares closed out August at a P/S ratio of 115! No megacap company has ever been able to sustain a P/S multiple of 30 to 40 for any extended period of time, let alone a triple-digit P/S ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在之前的泡沫中处于领先地位的公司，包括互联网泡沫，其股票的市销率（P/S）最高曾达到 30 到 40 倍，顶部有一点点的浮动空间。而 Palantir 的股票在八月底的市销率达到了 115 倍！没有任何一家大型公司能够在任何较长时间内维持 30 到 40 倍的市销率，更不用说三位数的市销率了。</p>
</div><p>While Palantir is a solid company, there's simply no justifying its valuation. With risk factors far outweighing the reward, investors would be wise to steer clear of this highflier in September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然 Palantir 是一家稳健的公司，但其估值实在无法令人信服。考虑到风险因素远远超过潜在收益，投资者在九月份最好远离这只高飞的股票。</p>
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1 Scorching-Hot Trillion-Dollar Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock to Buy in September, and 1 Highflier That's Worth Avoiding

- 人工智能的演变吸引了华尔街的关注，预计 2030 年市场规模达 15.7 万亿美元。  
- Meta Platforms 在 AI 领域表现突出，股价自 2022 年低点上涨超过 700%。  
- Palantir 的估值过高，市销率达到 115，风险大于收益，投资者应谨慎。

九月份值得购买的一只炙手可热的万亿美元人工智能（AI）股票，以及一只值得避免的高估股票