<p>投资于零排放飞行器听起来是一个令人兴奋的增长机会。目前最热门的趋势之一是投资于电动垂直起降（eVTOL）飞机市场的公司。这些飞机可以作为空中出租车，高效地运输人们，同时比直升机更环保、噪音更小。</p>
<p>在这个领域的领先公司是 <strong>Joby Aviation</strong>（JOBY 0.42%）。该公司正在取得进展，并希望在明年开始商业运营。鉴于这些预期，股票的估值在过去 12 个月中上涨了超过 160%。</p>
<p>但由于公司产生的收入有限且亏损严重，商业模式仍需证明其盈利能力，因此股票存在相当大的风险。在过去一个月中，Joby 的股价下跌了超过 20%。这是否意味着股票可能已经见顶，还是这只是未来可能仍然是一个有前景的长期增长投资的一个小波折？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA2OTMvYW4tdmVydGljYWwtdGFrZS1vZmYtYW5kLWxhbmRpbmctYWlyY3JhZnQtdGhhdC1oYXMtbGFuZGVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA2OTMvYW4tdmVydGljYWwtdGFrZS1vZmYtYW5kLWxhbmRpbmctYWlyY3JhZnQtdGhhdC1oYXMtbGFuZGVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>投机而非基本面推动 Joby 的股票</h2>
<p>Joby 的股票最近表现不佳，但总体而言，今年仍上涨超过 60%（截至上周末）。对于一家尚未开始商业运营的公司，投资者显然对 Joby 寄予厚望。</p>
<p>但对于这一切的结果并没有确定性。考虑到基础设施以及飞机的实用性等众多疑问，我对 eVTOL 股票持怀疑态度。Joby 的飞机可以运输多达四名乘客，但除非空中有数百架这样的飞机，否则在繁忙的城市中可能并不能缓解交通拥堵，这对空中交通来说也许并不理想。</p>
<p>这也是一个资本密集型的业务，直到 Joby 开始扩展并产生收入，投资者才会对该业务盈利的可能性有一个清晰的认识。虽然这些飞机看起来时尚且未来感十足，但这并不意味着它们在长期内会非常实用或为 Joby 带来盈利。</p>
<h2>投资者是否开始重新考虑？</h2>
<p>在八月份，Joby 完成了其首次在公共机场之间的有人驾驶空中出租车飞行，标志着其运营的一个里程碑。该飞行在加利福尼亚州的马里纳和蒙特雷之间进行，公司将其视为朝商业化迈出的 “重大一步”。</p>
<p>然而，股票在这一消息发布后并没有上涨，反而自那时以来下跌。也许投资者对 Joby 的期望更高，或者他们只是想从今年股票强劲反弹中兑现利润。但根据分析师的说法，eVTOL 股票可能还有更大的下跌空间。共识分析师的目标价格仅为 10.50 美元，这意味着从当前交易价格来看，存在超过 20% 的下行风险。</p>
<p>价格目标并不能保证股票最终的价格，但可以为投资者提供一个良好的衡量标准，以判断股票是被低估还是高估。由于 Joby 的股价仍远高于共识平均水平，这突显了今年购买该股票的投机性。如果投资者确实在更仔细地考虑估值，Joby 的股票可能在不久的将来会有更多的修正。</p>
<h2>Joby 的股票可能已经定价过高</h2>
<p>如果你今天购买 Joby 的股票，你将为一家处于早期增长阶段的企业支付高额溢价。以约 110 亿美元的市值来看，你需要对 eVTOL 市场未来将会庞大以及 Joby 将成为其中关键参与者有相当强的信心，才能认为今天的股票是一个好的买入时机。</p>
<p>我对这两点都没有信心，这就是为什么我认为对 Joby 采取观望态度是最安全的选择。我相信该股票可能已经在短期内达到了峰值。然而，长期表现如何仍然难以判断。除非你有极高的风险承受能力，否则即使在股票最近贬值的情况下，你可能也更适合在场外观望，而不是投资 Joby。</p>

JOBY

<p>Joby Aviation 的股票在过去一年中上涨了超过 160%，但最近下跌超过 20%。尽管完成了首次有人驾驶的空中出租车飞行，但由于收入有限和高额亏损，投资者仍持怀疑态度。分析师建议的共识目标价为 10.50 美元，暗示可能进一步下跌。该股票当前的估值可能反映了过高的增长预期，导致谨慎的前景。建议投资者采取观望态度，因为 Joby 在电动垂直起降（eVTOL）市场的长期可行性仍然不确定</p>

<p>Investing in zero-emission flying vehicles sounds like a fantastic growth opportunity for investors. And one of the hottest trends right now involves investing in companies that are in the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft market. The aircraft can act as air taxis, transporting people efficiently while also being greener and less noisy options than helicopters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资于零排放飞行器听起来是一个令人兴奋的增长机会。目前最热门的趋势之一是投资于电动垂直起降（eVTOL）飞机市场的公司。这些飞机可以作为空中出租车，高效地运输人们，同时比直升机更环保、噪音更小。</p>
</div><p>A leading company in that space is <strong>Joby Aviation</strong>(JOBY 0.42%). The company has been making progress and hopes to commence commercial operations by next year. In light of those expectations, the stock's valuation has climbed by more than 160% in just the past 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这个领域的领先公司是 <strong>Joby Aviation</strong>（JOBY 0.42%）。该公司正在取得进展，并希望在明年开始商业运营。鉴于这些预期，股票的估值在过去 12 个月中上涨了超过 160%。</p>
</div><p>But with the company generating limited revenue and incurring massive losses, and a business model that still needs to prove it can be profitable, there's ample risk with the stock. In just the past month, shares of Joby are down by more than 20%. Is this a sign that the stock may have peaked, or is this just a slight bump in the road for what may still prove to be a promising long-term growth investment?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但由于公司产生的收入有限且亏损严重，商业模式仍需证明其盈利能力，因此股票存在相当大的风险。在过去一个月中，Joby 的股价下跌了超过 20%。这是否意味着股票可能已经见顶，还是这只是未来可能仍然是一个有前景的长期增长投资的一个小波折？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzA2OTMvYW4tdmVydGljYWwtdGFrZS1vZmYtYW5kLWxhbmRpbmctYWlyY3JhZnQtdGhhdC1oYXMtbGFuZGVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830693%2Fan-vertical-take-off-and-landing-aircraft-that-has-landed.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Speculation, not fundamentals, is fueling Joby's stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投机而非基本面推动 Joby 的股票</h2>
</div><p>Joby's stock has struggled recently, but overall, it's still up more than 60% this year (as of the end of last week). For a company that still hasn't begun its commercial operations, investors are clearly jumping the gun on this one and expecting big things from Joby in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Joby 的股票最近表现不佳，但总体而言，今年仍上涨超过 60%（截至上周末）。对于一家尚未开始商业运营的公司，投资者显然对 Joby 寄予厚望。</p>
</div><p>But there is no certainty as to how all that plays out. I'm skeptical about eVTOL stocks as a whole, given the numerous question marks about not only infrastructure but also how practical the aircraft are. Joby's aircraft can transport up to four passengers, which may not really alleviate much traffic in busy urban cities unless you have hundreds of these aircraft in the skies, which may not be ideal for air traffic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但对于这一切的结果并没有确定性。考虑到基础设施以及飞机的实用性等众多疑问，我对 eVTOL 股票持怀疑态度。Joby 的飞机可以运输多达四名乘客，但除非空中有数百架这样的飞机，否则在繁忙的城市中可能并不能缓解交通拥堵，这对空中交通来说也许并不理想。</p>
</div><p>This is also a capital-intensive business, and until Joby starts to scale and generate revenue, investors won't have a clear idea as to how likely it will be for the business to turn a profit. The aircraft may look sleek and futuristic, but that doesn't mean it may be all that practical or result in profitability for Joby in the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也是一个资本密集型的业务，直到 Joby 开始扩展并产生收入，投资者才会对该业务盈利的可能性有一个清晰的认识。虽然这些飞机看起来时尚且未来感十足，但这并不意味着它们在长期内会非常实用或为 Joby 带来盈利。</p>
</div><h2>Are investors having second thoughts?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者是否开始重新考虑？</h2>
</div><p>In August, Joby completed its first piloted air taxi flight between public airports, marking a milestone for its operations. The flight was in California, between Marina and Monterey, and the company regarded it as a &#34;major step&#34; in its progress toward commercialization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在八月份，Joby 完成了其首次在公共机场之间的有人驾驶空中出租车飞行，标志着其运营的一个里程碑。该飞行在加利福尼亚州的马里纳和蒙特雷之间进行，公司将其视为朝商业化迈出的 “重大一步”。</p>
</div><p>However, the stock didn't rise on that news, and instead, it has fallen since then. Perhaps investors were expecting more from Joby, or they simply wanted to cash out profits from the stock's strong rally this year. But according to analysts, there may be much more room for the eVTOL stock to fall. The consensus analyst price target is just $10.50, which implies a downside risk of more than 20% from where the stock trades today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，股票在这一消息发布后并没有上涨，反而自那时以来下跌。也许投资者对 Joby 的期望更高，或者他们只是想从今年股票强劲反弹中兑现利润。但根据分析师的说法，eVTOL 股票可能还有更大的下跌空间。共识分析师的目标价格仅为 10.50 美元，这意味着从当前交易价格来看，存在超过 20% 的下行风险。</p>
</div><p>Price targets are not a guarantee of where a stock might end up, but they can give investors a good gauge of how underpriced or overpriced a stock may be. And with Joby still being well above the consensus average, it highlights just how speculative a buy it has been this year. If investors are indeed thinking about the valuation more closely, there could be more of a correction to come for Joby's stock in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>价格目标并不能保证股票最终的价格，但可以为投资者提供一个良好的衡量标准，以判断股票是被低估还是高估。由于 Joby 的股价仍远高于共识平均水平，这突显了今年购买该股票的投机性。如果投资者确实在更仔细地考虑估值，Joby 的股票可能在不久的将来会有更多的修正。</p>
</div><h2>Joby's stock may already have too much growth priced in</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Joby 的股票可能已经定价过高</h2>
</div><p>If you're buying Joby's stock today, you're paying a hefty premium for a business that's so early on in its growth. At around $11 billion in market cap, you would need to have fairly strong confidence that not only is the eVTOL market going to be big in the future, but that Joby will also be a key player in it for the stock to appear to be a good buy today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你今天购买 Joby 的股票，你将为一家处于早期增长阶段的企业支付高额溢价。以约 110 亿美元的市值来看，你需要对 eVTOL 市场未来将会庞大以及 Joby 将成为其中关键参与者有相当强的信心，才能认为今天的股票是一个好的买入时机。</p>
</div><p>I'm not confident in either one of those things being true, which is why I think a wait-and-see approach is the safest one to take with Joby. I believe the stock may have reached a peak, at least in the short run. How it does in the long term, however, is still too hard to tell. And unless you have an extremely high risk tolerance, you may be better off waiting on the sidelines than investing in Joby, even with the stock's recent decline in value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我对这两点都没有信心，这就是为什么我认为对 Joby 采取观望态度是最安全的选择。我相信该股票可能已经在短期内达到了峰值。然而，长期表现如何仍然难以判断。除非你有极高的风险承受能力，否则即使在股票最近贬值的情况下，你可能也更适合在场外观望，而不是投资 Joby。</p>
</div>

Joby Aviation 的股票是否已经达到顶峰？