<p>三十年前，互联网的出现和普及永远改变了美国企业的增长轨迹。这项颠覆性的技术使企业能够超越传统的实体店面，同时也为普通投资者打破了壁垒，让他们可以通过点击按钮访问财务报表、资产负债表、公司演示和领先的商业故事。</p>
<p>几十年来，投资者一直在等待下一个推动美国企业前进的重大技术。人工智能（AI）的演变似乎回应了这一呼唤。</p>
<p>在《Sizing the Prize》中，普华永道的分析师预测，到 2030 年，全球国内生产总值将因人工智能而增加 15.7 万亿美元。如此庞大的可寻址市场，难怪人工智能股票飙升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE5NTQvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE5NTQvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
<p>但在数百家以某种方式受益于人工智能革命的上市公司中，没有一家比 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -2.78%）获得的提升更大。这家全球最大的上市公司自 2023 年开始以来，市值增加了约 3.8 万亿美元，其股价上涨了惊人的 1,070%，考虑到 2024 年 6 月的历史性 10 比 1 股票拆分。</p>
<p>尽管 Nvidia 看似势不可挡，但了解它的人发出了一个无可否认的警告……_如果_投资者在关注的话。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 几乎与 “人工智能” 同义</h2>
<p>Nvidia 因其图形处理单元（GPU）而成为人工智能革命的代名词，这些 GPU 是企业数据中心的 “大脑”。其 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell 芯片占据了所有在人工智能加速数据中心中部署的 GPU 的主要份额。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的核心优势之一是没有外部竞争对手能够接近其人工智能硬件的计算能力。Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋希望保持这种状态，黄仁勋监督着下一代芯片的预期年度发布。</p>
<p>Blackwell 继任者 Blackwell Ultra 的生产已经开始，Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra 的交付预计将在 2026 年下半年和 2027 年进行。Nvidia 不太可能在短期内放弃其计算优势。</p>
<p>在这一点上，人工智能 GPU 的稀缺性对 Nvidia 有利。即使 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong> 尽其所能地扩大其每月的芯片 - 硅片 - 基板产能，Nvidia 的 GPU 需求仍然远远超过供应。这是一个令人羡慕的地位，使 Nvidia 能够在其硬件上维持高价，从而提升了其毛利率。</p>
<p>还有 Nvidia 运营模式中的无名英雄：CUDA 软件平台。CUDA 是开发者用来最大化 Nvidia GPU 计算能力的工具包，包括构建和训练大型语言模型。CUDA 是一个有效的诱饵，使现有客户忠于 Nvidia 的硬件和服务生态系统。</p>
<p>随着对中国的人工智能 GPU 出货恢复以及下一代芯片的订单积压，Nvidia 似乎前景无限——但从其内部人士的记录来看，你可能不会这样认为。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 的内部人士向华尔街和投资者发出明确警告</h2>
<p>“内部人士” 是指在上市公司中拥有非公开信息的人，例如执行团队成员、董事会成员或持有超过 10% 股份的受益股东。没有人比这些人更了解他们公司的催化剂和陷阱。</p>
<p>由于华尔街的法规，内部人士必须在交易后的两个工作日内通过向证券交易委员会提交的 Form 4 报告其交易活动。换句话说，如果公司的内部人士在买卖股票或行使期权合约，投资者将会知道。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的内部交易活动发出了一个警告，华尔街和投资者最好不要忽视。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE5NTQvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="525" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE5NTQvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>在过去五年（截至 9 月 3 日）的时间里，内部人士净售出了价值 47 亿美元的 Nvidia 股票。</p>
<p>然而，内部人士卖出活动伴随着一个注释——即高管们的薪酬大部分以普通股和/或期权的形式获得。通常，股票需要被出售以覆盖他们的联邦和/或州税负。同样，期权需要在到期前行使，这可能导致基于税务的卖出。关键点是，内部人士的卖出活动并不自动意味着坏事。</p>
<p>但这枚硬币还有另一面——这才是真正的担忧所在。</p>
<p>尽管过去五年卖出活动持续不断，但买入几乎不存在。最后一次来自高管或董事会成员的购买发生在 2020 年 12 月 3 日，首席财务官 Colette Kress 报告为她的两个儿子各购买了 100 股。在 Kress 之前，董事 Stephen Neal 在 2020 年 9 月 21 日至 2020 年 9 月 25 日期间累计购买了 948 股。总的来说，了解 Nvidia 最好的人在过去五年中仅花费了 581,000 美元购买其股票。</p>
<p>虽然存在许多卖出股票的理由，但只有一个买入的理由：你相信股价会上涨。如果 Nvidia 的高管和董事都不愿意在不到三年内股价上涨 1,070% 的情况下进行投资，为什么投资者应该被期望跳入呢？</p>
<p>尽管英伟达拥有乐观的长期预测，但其超过 25 的市销率已接近泡沫区域。此外，过去 30 多年没有任何一项下一个重大技术进步能够避免最终的早期泡沫破裂事件。内部人士缺乏买入行为所描绘的图景不言而喻。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英伟达的市场价值显著上升，自 2023 年初以来增加了约 3.8 万亿美元，这主要归功于其在人工智能领域的主导地位。然而，内部人士对此表示担忧，因为在过去五年中，他们净出售了 47 亿美元的股票，买入活动极少。这一趋势表明，尽管英伟达在人工智能市场中处于强势地位且对其 GPU 的需求持续，但投资者仍需保持谨慎</p>

<p>Three decades ago, the advent and proliferation of the internet changed the growth arc of corporate America forever. This game-changing technology allowed businesses to move beyond their brick-and-mortar settings, as well as broke down barriers for everyday investors by giving them access to financial statements, balance sheets, corporate presentations, and leading business stories at the click of a button.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三十年前，互联网的出现和普及永远改变了美国企业的增长轨迹。这项颠覆性的技术使企业能够超越传统的实体店面，同时也为普通投资者打破了壁垒，让他们可以通过点击按钮访问财务报表、资产负债表、公司演示和领先的商业故事。</p>
</div><p>For decades, investors have been waiting for the next big technology to push corporate America forward. The evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) looks to have answered the call.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几十年来，投资者一直在等待下一个推动美国企业前进的重大技术。人工智能（AI）的演变似乎回应了这一呼唤。</p>
</div><p>In <em>Sizing the Prize</em>, the analysts at PwC forecast a $15.7 trillion jump in global gross domestic product by 2030, courtesy of AI. With an addressable market this large, it's no wonder AI stocks have soared.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在《Sizing the Prize》中，普华永道的分析师预测，到 2030 年，全球国内生产总值将因人工智能而增加 15.7 万亿美元。如此庞大的可寻址市场，难怪人工智能股票飙升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE5NTQvbnZpZGlhLXZveWFnZXItaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLWFydGlmaWNpYWwtaW50ZWxsaWdlbmNlLWdwdS1haS1zZW1pY29uZHVjdG9yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831954%2Fnvidia-voyager-headquarters-artificial-intelligence-gpu-ai-semiconductor.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
</div><p>But among the hundreds of public companies that have benefited in some way, form, or shape from the AI revolution, none has enjoyed a bigger boost than <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -2.78%). The world's largest publicly traded company has added around $3.8 trillion in market value since 2023 began, with its shares up a cool 1,070%, factoring in a historic 10-for-1 stock split in June 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在数百家以某种方式受益于人工智能革命的上市公司中，没有一家比 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -2.78%）获得的提升更大。这家全球最大的上市公司自 2023 年开始以来，市值增加了约 3.8 万亿美元，其股价上涨了惊人的 1,070%，考虑到 2024 年 6 月的历史性 10 比 1 股票拆分。</p>
</div><p>Although Nvidia would appear to be unstoppable, the people who know it best are sounding a warning that's arguably unmistakable... <em>if</em> investors are paying attention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Nvidia 看似势不可挡，但了解它的人发出了一个无可否认的警告……_如果_投资者在关注的话。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia has become practically synonymous with &#34;artificial intelligence&#34;</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 几乎与 “人工智能” 同义</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia became the face of the AI revolution thanks to its graphics processing units (GPUs), which act as the brains of enterprise data centers. Its Hopper (H100) and Blackwell chips account for the bulk of all GPUs deployed in AI-accelerated data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 因其图形处理单元（GPU）而成为人工智能革命的代名词，这些 GPU 是企业数据中心的 “大脑”。其 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell 芯片占据了所有在人工智能加速数据中心中部署的 GPU 的主要份额。</p>
</div><p>One of Nvidia's core advantages is that no external competitors have come particularly close to surpassing the compute capabilities of its AI hardware. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang would prefer to keep it this way, with Huang overseeing the expected launch of a next-gen chip annually.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的核心优势之一是没有外部竞争对手能够接近其人工智能硬件的计算能力。Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋希望保持这种状态，黄仁勋监督着下一代芯片的预期年度发布。</p>
</div><p>The production ramp-up has already begun for Blackwell successor Blackwell Ultra, with deliveries of the Vera Rubin and Vera Rubin Ultra expected to take place in the latter half of 2026 and 2027, respectively. Nvidia is unlikely to cede its compute edge anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Blackwell 继任者 Blackwell Ultra 的生产已经开始，Vera Rubin 和 Vera Rubin Ultra 的交付预计将在 2026 年下半年和 2027 年进行。Nvidia 不太可能在短期内放弃其计算优势。</p>
</div><p>Building on this point, it has AI GPU scarcity working in its favor. Even with <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong> doing what it can to meaningfully expand its monthly chip-on-wafer-on-substrate capacity, demand for Nvidia's GPUs continues to handily outpace their supply. This is an enviable position that's allowed Nvidia to sustain a premium price on its hardware, which has provided a lift to its gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这一点上，人工智能 GPU 的稀缺性对 Nvidia 有利。即使 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong> 尽其所能地扩大其每月的芯片 - 硅片 - 基板产能，Nvidia 的 GPU 需求仍然远远超过供应。这是一个令人羡慕的地位，使 Nvidia 能够在其硬件上维持高价，从而提升了其毛利率。</p>
</div><p>There's also the unsung hero of Nvidia's operating model: the CUDA software platform. CUDA is the toolkit used by developers to maximize the compute abilities of their Nvidia GPUs, which includes building and training large language models. CUDA is an effective lure that keeps existing clients loyal to Nvidia's ecosystem of hardware and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有 Nvidia 运营模式中的无名英雄：CUDA 软件平台。CUDA 是开发者用来最大化 Nvidia GPU 计算能力的工具包，包括构建和训练大型语言模型。CUDA 是一个有效的诱饵，使现有客户忠于 Nvidia 的硬件和服务生态系统。</p>
</div><p>With shipments of AI GPUs to China back on the menu and orders for its next-gen chips backlogged, the sky would appear to be the limit for Nvidia -- but you wouldn't know it by looking at the track record of its insiders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着对中国的人工智能 GPU 出货恢复以及下一代芯片的订单积压，Nvidia 似乎前景无限——但从其内部人士的记录来看，你可能不会这样认为。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's insiders offer a clear warning to Wall Street and investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 的内部人士向华尔街和投资者发出明确警告</h2>
</div><p>An &#34;insider&#34; is someone at a publicly traded company with access to nonpublic information, such as a member of the executive team, someone on the board of directors, or a beneficial shareholder with a greater than 10% stake. No one understands the catalysts and pitfalls of their company better than these folks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“内部人士” 是指在上市公司中拥有非公开信息的人，例如执行团队成员、董事会成员或持有超过 10% 股份的受益股东。没有人比这些人更了解他们公司的催化剂和陷阱。</p>
</div><p>Thanks to Wall Street regulations, insiders are required to report their trading activity within two business days of a transaction via a Form 4 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In other words, if insiders of a company are buying or selling shares or exercising options contracts, investors will know about it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于华尔街的法规，内部人士必须在交易后的两个工作日内通过向证券交易委员会提交的 Form 4 报告其交易活动。换句话说，如果公司的内部人士在买卖股票或行使期权合约，投资者将会知道。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's insider trading activity is sounding a warning that Wall Street and investors would be wise not to ignore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的内部交易活动发出了一个警告，华尔街和投资者最好不要忽视。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE5NTQvcmVkLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtZmluYW5jaWFsLWRhdGEtaW52ZXN0LWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831954%2Fred-dice-buy-sell-stock-chart-financial-data-invest-billionaire-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Over the trailing-five-year period (as of this writing on Sept. 3), insiders have sold a net of $4.7 billion worth of Nvidia stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去五年（截至 9 月 3 日）的时间里，内部人士净售出了价值 47 亿美元的 Nvidia 股票。</p>
</div><p>However, there's an asterisk that accompanies insider selling activity -- namely, executives receive the lion's share of their compensation in the form of common stock and/or options. Often, stock needs to be sold to cover their federal and/or state tax liability. Likewise, options need to be exercised before they expire, which can result in tax-based selling. The key point is that selling activity from insiders isn't automatically a bad thing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，内部人士卖出活动伴随着一个注释——即高管们的薪酬大部分以普通股和/或期权的形式获得。通常，股票需要被出售以覆盖他们的联邦和/或州税负。同样，期权需要在到期前行使，这可能导致基于税务的卖出。关键点是，内部人士的卖出活动并不自动意味着坏事。</p>
</div><p>But there's another side to this coin -- and that's where the real worry arises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这枚硬币还有另一面——这才是真正的担忧所在。</p>
</div><p>While selling activity has been persistent over the last five years, buying has been virtually nonexistent. The last purchase from an executive or board member occurred on Dec. 3, 2020, with CFO Colette Kress reporting respective purchases of 100 shares for each of her sons. Prior to Kress, director Stephen Neal acquired 948 shares, in aggregate, from Sept. 21, 2020, through Sept. 25, 2020. Cumulatively, the people who know Nvidia best have spent only $581,000 of their own money to buy its shares over the trailing half-decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管过去五年卖出活动持续不断，但买入几乎不存在。最后一次来自高管或董事会成员的购买发生在 2020 年 12 月 3 日，首席财务官 Colette Kress 报告为她的两个儿子各购买了 100 股。在 Kress 之前，董事 Stephen Neal 在 2020 年 9 月 21 日至 2020 年 9 月 25 日期间累计购买了 948 股。总的来说，了解 Nvidia 最好的人在过去五年中仅花费了 581,000 美元购买其股票。</p>
</div><p>Whereas numerous reasons exist to sell stock, there's only one reason to be a buyer: You believe the share price will head higher. If none of Nvidia's executives and directors are willing to take the plunge with shares up 1,070% in less than three years, why should investors be expected to jump in?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然存在许多卖出股票的理由，但只有一个买入的理由：你相信股价会上涨。如果 Nvidia 的高管和董事都不愿意在不到三年内股价上涨 1,070% 的情况下进行投资，为什么投资者应该被期望跳入呢？</p>
</div><p>Despite Nvidia having a rosy long-term forecast, its price-to-sales ratio of more than 25 is bordering on bubble territory. Further, no next-big-thing technological advancement in over 30 years has avoided an eventual early-stage bubble-bursting event. The lack of buying from insiders paints a picture worth a thousand words.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管英伟达拥有乐观的长期预测，但其超过 25 的市销率已接近泡沫区域。此外，过去 30 多年没有任何一项下一个重大技术进步能够避免最终的早期泡沫破裂事件。内部人士缺乏买入行为所描绘的图景不言而喻。</p>
</div>

The People Who Know Nvidia Best Are Sounding a Warning -- but Is Anyone Listening?

- Nvidia 在 2023 年以来市值增加约 3.8 万亿美元，股价上涨 1,070%。
- 内部人士在过去五年净售出 47 亿美元股票，几乎没有买入活动。
- 尽管前景乐观，Nvidia 的市销率超过 25，接近泡沫边缘。

最了解 NVIDIA 的人正在发出警告——但有人在倾听吗？