<p><strong>Sweetgreen</strong>（SG 2.23%）的股票在 2025 年经历了巨大的波动。在去年开局火热之后，这家快餐沙拉连锁店的股价因增长放缓和盈利能力回落而大幅下跌。当前股价仅为历史最高点 53 美元的一小部分，一些过于乐观的投资者可能希望股票能在不久的将来迅速反弹至这些水平，从而获得类似于 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 的回报。不幸的是，这几乎不可能发生。</p>
<p>餐厅的扩展与芯片和软件的扩展方式不同。餐厅是资本密集型的。扩展是逐个地点进行的，单位经济效益随着客流、定价和劳动力的变化而波动。Sweetgreen 可能仍然是一个伟大的长期品牌，但期待其达到 Nvidia 级别的增长误解了餐饮模型的复合特性。更重要的是，这种积极的展望淡化了 Sweetgreen 在关键业务指标上最近下滑的严重性。</p>
<p>股票遭受重创是有原因的，近期大幅反弹的可能性不大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAxNTkvYnV5LXRoZS1kaXAuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAxNTkvYnV5LXRoZS1kaXAuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>投资者担忧的原因</h2>
<p>Sweetgreen 的第二季度显示了股票重置的原因。收入同比仅增长 0.5%，达到 1.856 亿美元，7.6% 的同店销售下降（由于客流和组合下降 10.1%，部分被 2.5% 的菜单定价抵消）抵消了新餐厅开业的贡献。平均单位销售额（AUV），即过去四个财政季度所有运营满 12 个月餐厅的平均收入，从 290 万美元降至 280 万美元。</p>
<p>餐厅层面的利润率从去年同期的 22.5% 降至 18.9%，公司报告净亏损 2320 万美元，调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）为 640 万美元，约为去年同期的一半。该连锁店在此期间新增了 9 家净餐厅，但整体情况与 2024 年的势头相比大幅回落。</p>
<p>指导方针进一步强化了令人失望的叙述。管理层现在预计 2025 财政年度的收入将在 7 亿到 7.15 亿美元之间，高于去年同期的约 6.77 亿美元。这是增长，但幅度有限——几乎不是推动股票超级周期的那种运营加速。此外，在盈利能力方面，趋势实际上是向下的。管理层预计全年的调整后 EBITDA 将在 1000 万到 1500 万美元之间，低于 2024 年的 1870 万美元。</p>
<h2>为什么扩展不会像 Nvidia 那样</h2>
<p>将 Sweetgreen 与 Nvidia 进行比较设定了一个不切实际的标准。这家人工智能（AI）芯片制造商受益于数据中心需求的爆炸性增长、超高的毛利率和强大的网络效应——这些特征是餐饮连锁店无法复制的。Sweetgreen 的价值创造路径确实涉及运营杠杆，但主要仅限于餐厅层面。此外，这种运营杠杆可能仅在同店销售增长时显现，而目前并没有。</p>
<p>即使是公司&#34;无限厨房&#34;自动化等有前景的杠杆，也是在不断降低成本和提高产出，而不是通过解锁软件般的经济效益和通过大规模生产实现规模经济。此外，考虑到快餐餐厅领域的激烈竞争，Sweetgreen 的定价能力非常有限。另一方面，Nvidia 仍然在享受强大的定价能力，因为竞争尚未提供其 AI 芯片的良好替代品。</p>
<p>是的，确实有一些可信的催化剂。数字化仍然是一个优势。最近更新的忠诚度计划可能有助于提高会员的访问频率。自动化应支持劳动力优化和一致性。但短期现实是，同店销售为负，餐厅层面的利润率下降，管理层在当前市值超过 10 亿美元的背景下指导全年的调整后 EBITDA 为适度水平。在这种情况下，持续的&#34;Nvidia 级别的增长&#34;是不太可能的。更合理的上行空间是随着客流稳定和利润率恢复而实现的多年的执行驱动增长。</p>
<p>Sweetgreen 是一个差异化的品牌，拥有改善的工具——数字化、忠诚度和自动化——以推动更好的经济效益。操作手册是明确的，但它是资本密集型的，并且在宏观环境中存在不确定性。投资者应关注 Sweetgreen 的同店销售、餐厅层面利润率、调整后 EBITDA 以及无限厨房部署的投资回报。如果这些指标持续上升，股票应该会随之上涨。但期待类似于 Nvidia 的抛物线式激增是错误的框架。</p>

<p>Sweetgreen 的股票在 2025 年表现不佳，股价较历史最高点 53 美元大幅下跌。最近的财务结果显示，收入仅增长 0.5%，净亏损为 2320 万美元。管理层对 2025 年的指引显示出温和的增长，预计调整后的 EBITDA 将下降。由于餐饮业与科技公司的不同扩展动态，将其与 Nvidia 进行比较被认为不切实际。投资者应关注同店销售和利润率等关键指标，以寻找潜在的复苏机会，而不是期待像 Nvidia 那样的快速上涨</p>

<p><strong>Sweetgreen</strong>'s (SG 2.23%) stock has been through the wringer in 2025. After a hot start last year, the fast-casual salad chain's shares have tumbled as growth cooled and profitability slipped back into the red. With shares trading at only a fraction of their all-time high of $53, some overly optimistic investors may hope the stock can quickly rebound to these levels in the near future, leading to <strong>Nvidia</strong>-like returns. Unfortunately, there's almost no chance that this will happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Sweetgreen</strong>（SG 2.23%）的股票在 2025 年经历了巨大的波动。在去年开局火热之后，这家快餐沙拉连锁店的股价因增长放缓和盈利能力回落而大幅下跌。当前股价仅为历史最高点 53 美元的一小部分，一些过于乐观的投资者可能希望股票能在不久的将来迅速反弹至这些水平，从而获得类似于 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 的回报。不幸的是，这几乎不可能发生。</p>
</div><p>Restaurants scale differently than chips and software. They're capital-intensive. Expansion is site by site, and unit economics ebb and flow with traffic, pricing, and labor. Sweetgreen may yet be a great long-term brand, but expecting an Nvidia-level run misunderstands how restaurant models compound. Even more, such a positive outlook downplays the severity of Sweetgreen's recent slump in key business metrics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>餐厅的扩展与芯片和软件的扩展方式不同。餐厅是资本密集型的。扩展是逐个地点进行的，单位经济效益随着客流、定价和劳动力的变化而波动。Sweetgreen 可能仍然是一个伟大的长期品牌，但期待其达到 Nvidia 级别的增长误解了餐饮模型的复合特性。更重要的是，这种积极的展望淡化了 Sweetgreen 在关键业务指标上最近下滑的严重性。</p>
</div><p>There's a reason the stock has been hammered, and a big recovery anytime soon is unlikely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票遭受重创是有原因的，近期大幅反弹的可能性不大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAxNTkvYnV5LXRoZS1kaXAuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830159%2Fbuy-the-dip.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What has investors concerned</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者担忧的原因</h2>
</div><p>Sweetgreen's second quarter showed why the stock reset. Revenue increased just 0.5% year over year to $185.6 million, as a 7.6% same-store sales decline (driven by a 10.1% drop in traffic and mix, partially offset by 2.5% menu pricing) offset contributions from new restaurant openings. Average unit volume (AUV), or the average trailing revenue for the last four fiscal quarters for all restaurants that have operated for at least 12 full months, slipped to $2.8 million from $2.9 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sweetgreen 的第二季度显示了股票重置的原因。收入同比仅增长 0.5%，达到 1.856 亿美元，7.6% 的同店销售下降（由于客流和组合下降 10.1%，部分被 2.5% 的菜单定价抵消）抵消了新餐厅开业的贡献。平均单位销售额（AUV），即过去四个财政季度所有运营满 12 个月餐厅的平均收入，从 290 万美元降至 280 万美元。</p>
</div><p>Restaurant-level profit margin fell to 18.9% from 22.5% in the year-ago period, and the company reported a net loss of $23.2 million, with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $6.4 million -- about half of what it was in the year-ago period. The chain did add nine net new restaurants in the period, but the overall picture was a big step back from 2024's momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>餐厅层面的利润率从去年同期的 22.5% 降至 18.9%，公司报告净亏损 2320 万美元，调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）为 640 万美元，约为去年同期的一半。该连锁店在此期间新增了 9 家净餐厅，但整体情况与 2024 年的势头相比大幅回落。</p>
</div><p>Guidance reinforces the disappointing narrative. Management now expects fiscal 2025 revenue of $700 million to $715 million, up from about $677 million in the year-ago quarter. That's growth, but it's measured -- hardly the kind of operating acceleration that fuels a stock super-cycle. Furthermore, when it comes to profitability, the trend is actually downward. Management is guiding for full-year adjusted EBITDA to be between $10 million and $15 million, down from $18.7 million in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>指导方针进一步强化了令人失望的叙述。管理层现在预计 2025 财政年度的收入将在 7 亿到 7.15 亿美元之间，高于去年同期的约 6.77 亿美元。这是增长，但幅度有限——几乎不是推动股票超级周期的那种运营加速。此外，在盈利能力方面，趋势实际上是向下的。管理层预计全年的调整后 EBITDA 将在 1000 万到 1500 万美元之间，低于 2024 年的 1870 万美元。</p>
</div><h2>Why scale won't look like Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么扩展不会像 Nvidia 那样</h2>
</div><p>The Nvidia comparison sets an unrealistic bar. The artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker has ridden explosive data center demand, ultra-high gross margins, and powerful network effects -- features that a restaurant chain can't replicate. Sweetgreen's path to value creation does involve operating leverage, but primarily only at the restaurant level. Additionally, this operating leverage will likely only surface if same-store sales are growing, and they're not.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将 Sweetgreen 与 Nvidia 进行比较设定了一个不切实际的标准。这家人工智能（AI）芯片制造商受益于数据中心需求的爆炸性增长、超高的毛利率和强大的网络效应——这些特征是餐饮连锁店无法复制的。Sweetgreen 的价值创造路径确实涉及运营杠杆，但主要仅限于餐厅层面。此外，这种运营杠杆可能仅在同店销售增长时显现，而目前并没有。</p>
</div><p>Even promising levers, like the company's &#34;Infinite Kitchen&#34; automation, work by grinding costs and boosting throughput over time, not by unlocking software-like economics and by achieving economies of scale by manufacturing units in mass volumes. Additionally, Sweetgreen's pricing power is very limited, given the intense competition in the fast-casual restaurant space. Nvidia, on the other hand, is still riding a wave of incredible pricing power, since competition has yet to create a good alternative to its AI chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是公司&#34;无限厨房&#34;自动化等有前景的杠杆，也是在不断降低成本和提高产出，而不是通过解锁软件般的经济效益和通过大规模生产实现规模经济。此外，考虑到快餐餐厅领域的激烈竞争，Sweetgreen 的定价能力非常有限。另一方面，Nvidia 仍然在享受强大的定价能力，因为竞争尚未提供其 AI 芯片的良好替代品。</p>
</div><p>Yes, there are some credible catalysts. Digital remains a strength. The recently refreshed loyalty program could help boost the frequency of visits from its members. Automation should support labor optimization and consistency. But the near-term reality is that same-store sales are negative, restaurant-level margins stepped down, and management is guiding to modest adjusted EBITDA for the full year in the context of the stock's market capitalization of more than $1 billion as of this writing. In this context, a sustained &#34;Nvidia-level run&#34; is unlikely. The more reasonable upside is a multi-year, execution-driven climb as traffic stabilizes and margins recover.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是的，确实有一些可信的催化剂。数字化仍然是一个优势。最近更新的忠诚度计划可能有助于提高会员的访问频率。自动化应支持劳动力优化和一致性。但短期现实是，同店销售为负，餐厅层面的利润率下降，管理层在当前市值超过 10 亿美元的背景下指导全年的调整后 EBITDA 为适度水平。在这种情况下，持续的&#34;Nvidia 级别的增长&#34;是不太可能的。更合理的上行空间是随着客流稳定和利润率恢复而实现的多年的执行驱动增长。</p>
</div><p>Sweetgreen is a differentiated brand with improving tools -- digital, loyalty, and automation -- to drive better economics over time. The playbook is clear, but it is capital-intensive, and there's a backdrop of uncertainty in the macro environment. Investors should keep an eye on Sweetgreen's same-store sales, restaurant-level margin, adjusted EBITDA, and the return on investment from Infinite Kitchen deployments. If those metrics trend up consistently, the stock should follow. But expecting a parabolic, Nvidia-style surge is the wrong framework.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sweetgreen 是一个差异化的品牌，拥有改善的工具——数字化、忠诚度和自动化——以推动更好的经济效益。操作手册是明确的，但它是资本密集型的，并且在宏观环境中存在不确定性。投资者应关注 Sweetgreen 的同店销售、餐厅层面利润率、调整后 EBITDA 以及无限厨房部署的投资回报。如果这些指标持续上升，股票应该会随之上涨。但期待类似于 Nvidia 的抛物线式激增是错误的框架。</p>
</div>

Is Sweetgreen Stock Poised for an Nvidia-Level Run?

- Sweetgreen 的股票在 2025 年经历了大幅下跌，增长放缓和盈利能力下降。  
- 第二季度收入仅增长 0.5%，同店销售下降 7.6%，净亏损 2320 万美元。  
- 管理层预计 2025 财年收入将达 7 亿至 7.15 亿美元，盈利趋势向下。  

Sweetgreen 的股票是否有望达到 Nvidia 级别的涨势？