<p>每当有限资产遇到似乎无止境的需求时，价格往往会不断上涨。</p>
<p>这正是 <strong>比特币</strong>（BTC -1.30%）今天所处的状态。一方面，协议的最新减半意味着每天新挖掘的币量几乎只是开胃菜的份量。另一方面，一类新的稳定买家带着大量资本出现，他们希望获得一顿七道菜的资产。</p>
<p>供需之间的不匹配可能不会消失。那么，让我们更详细地探讨这一动态，并解读它对比特币长期的意义。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4MTgvYml0Y29pbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4MTgvYml0Y29pbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>新买家是结构性的，而新供应是固定且缓慢的</h2>
<p>在比特币 2024 年 4 月的减半后，平均每天挖掘约 450 个新币。请记住，这个新供应量是未来将生产的最多的，因为未来的减半将不断将挖矿奖励减半。</p>
<p>美国现货交易所交易基金（ETFs）越来越多地吸收超过每日新发行的比特币。8 月 25 日，净流入总额约为 1.735 亿美元，这一数字相当于当天挖矿产出的三倍。但这个数字实际上显著低估了需求的强劲，因为它仅仅是一天的数据，且只来自一种买家。</p>
<p>在 2025 年，基金和 ETF 平均每天购买 1,430 个比特币，极大地加剧了需求的不平衡。尽管如此，实际上今年最大的净买家是企业，2025 年公司平均每天吸纳约 1,755 个比特币。越来越多的公司宣布计划在其企业财库中持有该资产；与此同时，越来越多的新加密财库企业也在成立。</p>
<p>换句话说，这里呈现的是一组多样化的买家相互竞争，竞相出价以获取一些现有的比特币供应，因为新挖掘的供应远远不足以满足他们的需求。完全有可能的是，这种情况永远不会改变。</p>
<h2>为什么这可能推动多年的上涨趋势</h2>
<p>当具有长期投资时间框架的结构性买家超越新供应时，价格发现的过程就转向说服现有持有者出售他们的币。</p>
<p>这往往需要随着时间的推移而提高价格。即使某一购买群体明天停止购买，其他群体仍然会在平均一天内吸纳远超矿工的产出，保持市场的基本支撑。</p>
<p>此外，比特币的存量已经大部分发行：协议的 2100 万个可挖掘币中，已有 1990 万个，或 95% 存在，且如前所述，发行量在每次减半后将继续减缓。这个想法是，随着时间的推移，新供应将逐渐减缓，而需求来源将多样化、机构化，并在很大程度上拒绝出售。</p>
<p>在买家面临看跌的宏观经济条件或难以资助其购买之前——这在短期内非常不可能，因为主要资产管理公司和金融机构通常不会缺乏资本——因此，比特币的价格偏向上涨。满足买家的需求可能需要数年时间，甚至可能永远不会发生。</p>
<p>当然，比特币仍然可能会大幅下跌，至少是暂时的。</p>
<p>同样，提供大额流入的 ETF 管道如果情绪转变也可能导致流出。企业购买也往往是集中进行的，如果董事会变得谨慎或融资成本上升，购买可能会暂停。而且显然，全球流动性的急剧收紧可能会削弱需求。</p>
<p>因此，将持续的供应紧缩视为一种持久的顺风，而不是一种全时的保证。假设 ETF 大多数月份保持净流入，企业继续积累币，供应曲线将有利于持有者。价格将发挥配给有限资产的作用。</p>
<p>对于长期投资者来说，这里的策略是耐心地随着时间的推移积累币，最好采用自动化的方式，比如定投（DCA）。比特币核心的供需不平衡将会处理剩下的事情。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特币因其最新的减半事件正经历显著的需求激增，这一事件将每日新供应量限制在约 450 个币。包括企业和 ETF 在内的结构性买家正在购买超过每日挖矿产出的比特币，造成持续的供需失衡。这一动态表明，比特币的价格在长期内可能会继续上涨，因为现有持有者有动力在更高的价格出售。然而，潜在的市场波动和宏观经济条件可能会影响需求。建议长期投资者逐步积累比特币，利用当前的供应紧缩</p>

<p>Whenever a finite asset runs into a seemingly insatiable amount of demand, prices tend to go up and up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每当有限资产遇到似乎无止境的需求时，价格往往会不断上涨。</p>
</div><p>And that's about where <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC -1.30%) sits today. On one side, the protocol's latest halving means that barely an appetizer's worth of new coins are mined each day. On the other side, a new category of steady buyers with a huge amount of capital on hand has arrived, and they're looking for a seven-course meal's worth of the asset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这正是 <strong>比特币</strong>（BTC -1.30%）今天所处的状态。一方面，协议的最新减半意味着每天新挖掘的币量几乎只是开胃菜的份量。另一方面，一类新的稳定买家带着大量资本出现，他们希望获得一顿七道菜的资产。</p>
</div><p>The mismatch between supply and demand probably isn't going anywhere, either. So let's explore this dynamic in a bit more detail and unpack what it means for Bitcoin over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供需之间的不匹配可能不会消失。那么，让我们更详细地探讨这一动态，并解读它对比特币长期的意义。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4MTgvYml0Y29pbi1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831818%2Fbitcoin-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The new buyers are structural, while new supply is fixed and slow</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新买家是结构性的，而新供应是固定且缓慢的</h2>
</div><p>After Bitcoin's April 2024 halving, roughly 450 new coins are mined each day. Recall that this amount of new supply is the most that will ever be produced because future halvings will slash the mining reward in half again and again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在比特币 2024 年 4 月的减半后，平均每天挖掘约 450 个新币。请记住，这个新供应量是未来将生产的最多的，因为未来的减半将不断将挖矿奖励减半。</p>
</div><p>U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) increasingly absorb more than the daily new issuance. On Aug. 25, net inflows totaled about $173.5 million, a figure that equates to about triple that day's mining output. But that figure actually significantly undersells the strength of demand because it's data from just one day and from just one type of buyer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国现货交易所交易基金（ETFs）越来越多地吸收超过每日新发行的比特币。8 月 25 日，净流入总额约为 1.735 亿美元，这一数字相当于当天挖矿产出的三倍。但这个数字实际上显著低估了需求的强劲，因为它仅仅是一天的数据，且只来自一种买家。</p>
</div><p>Funds and ETFs bought 1,430 bitcoins per day on average in 2025, intensifying the demand imbalance dramatically. Despite that, it's actually businesses that have been the largest net buyers of the coin this year, with companies pulling in a shocking sum of about 1,755 coins per day on average in 2025. And more and more companies are announcing that they plan to hold the asset in their corporate treasuries; at the same time, more and more new crypto treasury businesses are launching.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，基金和 ETF 平均每天购买 1,430 个比特币，极大地加剧了需求的不平衡。尽管如此，实际上今年最大的净买家是企业，2025 年公司平均每天吸纳约 1,755 个比特币。越来越多的公司宣布计划在其企业财库中持有该资产；与此同时，越来越多的新加密财库企业也在成立。</p>
</div><p>In other words, the picture here is one of a diverse set of buyers competing with each other to bid higher and higher to secure some of the existing Bitcoin supply, as the newly mined supply is nowhere near enough to sate their appetite. It's fully possible that it never will be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，这里呈现的是一组多样化的买家相互竞争，竞相出价以获取一些现有的比特币供应，因为新挖掘的供应远远不足以满足他们的需求。完全有可能的是，这种情况永远不会改变。</p>
</div><h2>Why this could power a multiyear uptrend</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么这可能推动多年的上涨趋势</h2>
</div><p>When structural buyers with long investment time frames outpace fresh supply, price discovery shifts to persuading existing holders to part with coins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当具有长期投资时间框架的结构性买家超越新供应时，价格发现的过程就转向说服现有持有者出售他们的币。</p>
</div><p>That tends to require higher prices over time. Even if one buying cohort stopped tomorrow, the others would still be taking in much more than miners produce on an average day, keeping a tailwind under the market's baseline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这往往需要随着时间的推移而提高价格。即使某一购买群体明天停止购买，其他群体仍然会在平均一天内吸纳远超矿工的产出，保持市场的基本支撑。</p>
</div><p>Plus Bitcoin's stock is already mostly issued: 19.9 million, or 95%, of the protocol's 21 million mineable coins now exist, and issuance will keep slowing after each halving as mentioned previously. The idea is that over time there will be a steadily slowing trickle of new supply while demand sources diversify, institutionalize, and largely refuse to sell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，比特币的存量已经大部分发行：协议的 2100 万个可挖掘币中，已有 1990 万个，或 95% 存在，且如前所述，发行量在每次减半后将继续减缓。这个想法是，随着时间的推移，新供应将逐渐减缓，而需求来源将多样化、机构化，并在很大程度上拒绝出售。</p>
</div><p>Until buyers face bearish macroeconomic conditions or struggle to fund their purchases -- which is very unlikely in the near term, as major asset managers and financial institutions are typically not short on capital -- Bitcoin's price is thus biased to the upside. Satisfying buyers' hunger could take years, if it ever happens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在买家面临看跌的宏观经济条件或难以资助其购买之前——这在短期内非常不可能，因为主要资产管理公司和金融机构通常不会缺乏资本——因此，比特币的价格偏向上涨。满足买家的需求可能需要数年时间，甚至可能永远不会发生。</p>
</div><p>Of course, Bitcoin could still go down by a lot, at least temporarily.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，比特币仍然可能会大幅下跌，至少是暂时的。</p>
</div><p>The same ETF pipes that deliver big inflows can deliver outflows if sentiment shifts. Corporate buying also comes in lumps, and can pause if boardrooms get cautious or if financing costs rise. And it's obvious that a sharp tightening of global liquidity could dent demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，提供大额流入的 ETF 管道如果情绪转变也可能导致流出。企业购买也往往是集中进行的，如果董事会变得谨慎或融资成本上升，购买可能会暂停。而且显然，全球流动性的急剧收紧可能会削弱需求。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, treat the persistent supply squeeze as a durable tailwind, not an all-weather guarantee. Assuming that the ETFs maintain net inflows most months, and corporations continue to accumulate coins, the supply curve will favor holders. Price will do the work of rationing a finite asset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，将持续的供应紧缩视为一种持久的顺风，而不是一种全时的保证。假设 ETF 大多数月份保持净流入，企业继续积累币，供应曲线将有利于持有者。价格将发挥配给有限资产的作用。</p>
</div><p>For long-term investors, the strategy here is to accumulate coins patiently over time, preferably in an automated fashion like with dollar-cost averaging (DCAing). The core supply-demand imbalance at the heart of Bitcoin will take care of the rest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于长期投资者来说，这里的策略是耐心地随着时间的推移积累币，最好采用自动化的方式，比如定投（DCA）。比特币核心的供需不平衡将会处理剩下的事情。</p>
</div>

这一新的动态可能会在未来几年持续推动比特币价格上涨