<p>由于美国法院系统的判决，<strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.16%) 的未来变得不再模糊。在针对谷歌搜索的垄断案中，法官去年裁定该业务确实违反了美国的反竞争法律。从那时起，关于如何保持公平商业实践的补救措施进行了讨论。</p>
<p>尽管该案件并不是针对苹果的，但诉讼对其与谷歌搜索的现金牛许可协议构成了重大威胁，该案件提到的垄断行为可能被视为非法。在一些人看来是意外的裁决中，法官在 9 月 2 日决定，只要这些支付不是独占协议，苹果可以接受来自谷歌搜索的这些款项。</p>
<p>每年超过 200 亿美元的许可费用，这对苹果来说是一个巨大的利润驱动因素，这也是为什么在公告发布后，股票上涨了 4%。以下是该裁决对苹果及其股票在人工智能（AI）时代的影响。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIwNDUvd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIwNDUvd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>软件许可协议</h2>
<p>苹果的客户群体是一个极具盈利潜力的人群。它拥有超过 20 亿台活跃的计算设备——从 iPhone 到 Air Pods——这些设备的使用倾向于西方国家的高收入人群。这为移动应用和软件开发者提供了巨大的收入机会。</p>
<p>为了保持在搜索引擎市场的主导地位，谷歌及其母公司 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 1.04%) 开始向苹果支付许可费用，以使谷歌搜索成为苹果 Safari 浏览器的默认搜索提供商。包括在 Safari 上发生的搜索收入分成，苹果从谷歌获得的支付随着业务增长而增加，目前报告的金额已达到每年 200 亿美元或更高。</p>
<p>苹果的合并运营收益为 1300 亿美元。尽管该公司仍然主要通过销售 iPhone 获得利润，但来自谷歌的这笔单一费用占其年度运营收益的 15% 以上。加上潜在的其他许可协议，苹果现在已被确认可以合法地接受这些款项。</p>
<h2>苹果在 AI 领域是否落后？</h2>
<p>保留谷歌的支付可能让苹果的股东松了一口气。如果裁决结果相反，将会使苹果的市值蒸发数千亿美元，并导致股价下跌。</p>
<p>股东们今天应该关注的是苹果在 AI 领域是否落后。其品牌的 “苹果智能” 产品在消费者中反响平平，而其搭载 AI 的新硬件工具，如 Vision Pro，表现不佳。更糟糕的是，苹果据报道失去了大量 AI 开发人才，流向了 OpenAI、XAI 和 Alphabet 等公司，这可能进一步使其在竞争中处于劣势。</p>
<p>这使得苹果重新回到了其旧有的技术许可战略。它与制造谷歌搜索的同一家公司：Alphabet。Alphabet 的 Gemini 聊天机器人目前不如 ChatGPT 受欢迎，但由于其在云计算和半导体投资方面的领先基础设施，能够在数十亿用户中扩展使用。随着法院裁决的结果，新闻媒体报道，新的 AI 搜索工具可能会由 Siri 驱动 Gemini，尽管协议尚未最终确定。</p>
<p>问题是：苹果会因这项合作从 Alphabet 获得支付吗？鉴于 AI 与传统搜索引擎市场之间的差异，目前尚不清楚协议将如何运作。构建和部署 AI 是昂贵的。如果苹果要用 Gemini 为 Siri 提供动力，可能需要承担部分费用。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1c669243d09e4b2144863ce2bfbd4cdd.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1c669243d09e4b2144863ce2bfbd4cdd.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>这对苹果股票意味着什么</h2>
<p>苹果每年仍能从 Alphabet 获得 200 亿美元或更多的收入显然是个积极信号。从长远来看，股票的价格将随着其基本盈利能力的提升而上涨，如果苹果在未来五年内能从 Alphabet 获得 1000 亿美元的总许可收入，对业务来说无疑是更好的。</p>
<p>但投资者应该关注的是搜索引擎和 AI 聊天机器人市场的动态变化。五年后，搜索可能会被 ChatGPT 或 Alphabet 自家开发的 Gemini 聊天机器人彻底颠覆，这将消除刚刚获得美国法院批准的谷歌搜索许可协议。以 3.5 万亿美元的市值来看，五年内获得 1000 亿美元的收益对于今天考虑购买苹果股票的人来说并不特别相关。</p>
<p>苹果需要弄清楚的是——投资者需要思考的是——如何成为 AI 时代的首选个人计算硬件。无论是通过新的计算形式还是与 AI 软件制造商的许可协议，如果苹果能够成为人们访问互联网和 AI 的首要方式，其收益在长期内应该会增长。</p>
<p>关于苹果是否能实现这一目标存在许多不确定性。以 36 的市盈率来看，股票并未反映这种不确定性。投资者可能最好暂时避免购买苹果股票。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>美国法院的裁决允许苹果继续从谷歌获得每年超过 200 亿美元的搜索许可费，这对公司的利润驱动作用显著。该决定缓解了人们对可能影响苹果收入的反垄断问题的担忧。然而，苹果仍面临挑战，因为在人工智能领域的竞争加剧，有报道称其人才流失到竞争对手。苹果股票的未来可能取决于其适应不断变化的搜索和人工智能市场的能力，因为传统的许可协议可能会因人工智能技术的进步而受到冲击</p>

<p>The future for <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.16%) just got a lot less murky thanks to the United States court system. In the monopoly case against Google Search, a judge ruled last year that the business was indeed violating anticompetitive laws in the United States. Since then, there has been deliberation on what the remedies would be to keep fair business practices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于美国法院系统的判决，<strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.16%) 的未来变得不再模糊。在针对谷歌搜索的垄断案中，法官去年裁定该业务确实违反了美国的反竞争法律。从那时起，关于如何保持公平商业实践的补救措施进行了讨论。</p>
</div><p>Even though the case was not against Apple, the lawsuit posed a major threat to its cash cow licensing deal for Google Search, which the case mentioned as monopolistic behavior that could be deemed illegal. In what some saw as a surprise ruling, the judge decided on Sept. 2 that it was permissible for Apple to receive these payments from Google Search as long as they are not exclusive deals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管该案件并不是针对苹果的，但诉讼对其与谷歌搜索的现金牛许可协议构成了重大威胁，该案件提到的垄断行为可能被视为非法。在一些人看来是意外的裁决中，法官在 9 月 2 日决定，只要这些支付不是独占协议，苹果可以接受来自谷歌搜索的这些款项。</p>
</div><p>At more than $20 billion in licensing fees a year, this is a huge profit driver for Apple, which is why the stock shot up 4% on the announcement. Here's what the ruling means for Apple and the stock going forward into the age of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每年超过 200 亿美元的许可费用，这对苹果来说是一个巨大的利润驱动因素，这也是为什么在公告发布后，股票上涨了 4%。以下是该裁决对苹果及其股票在人工智能（AI）时代的影响。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIwNDUvd29tYW4tbG9va2luZy1hdC1waG9uZS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832045%2Fwoman-looking-at-phone.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Software licensing deals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>软件许可协议</h2>
</div><p>Apple's customer base is a highly lucrative demographic. It has more than 2 billion active computing devices -- ranging from the iPhone to Air Pods -- that skew usage toward the top earners in countries, especially in the West. This is a huge revenue opportunity for mobile application and software developers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的客户群体是一个极具盈利潜力的人群。它拥有超过 20 亿台活跃的计算设备——从 iPhone 到 Air Pods——这些设备的使用倾向于西方国家的高收入人群。这为移动应用和软件开发者提供了巨大的收入机会。</p>
</div><p>In order to retain its dominance in the search engine market, Google and its now parent company <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 1.04%) began paying Apple a licensing fee to make Google Search the default search provider on the Apple Safari browser. Including its cut of search revenue that happens on Safari, Apple's payment from Google has grown along with the business and is now reported at $20 billion a year or higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了保持在搜索引擎市场的主导地位，谷歌及其母公司 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 1.04%) 开始向苹果支付许可费用，以使谷歌搜索成为苹果 Safari 浏览器的默认搜索提供商。包括在 Safari 上发生的搜索收入分成，苹果从谷歌获得的支付随着业务增长而增加，目前报告的金额已达到每年 200 亿美元或更高。</p>
</div><p>Apple's consolidated operating earnings are $130 billion. Even though the company still makes the majority of its profit from selling iPhones, this single fee from Google makes up more than 15% of its annual operating earnings. Along with potentially other licensing deals, it has now been solidified as legal for Apple to receive these payments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的合并运营收益为 1300 亿美元。尽管该公司仍然主要通过销售 iPhone 获得利润，但来自谷歌的这笔单一费用占其年度运营收益的 15% 以上。加上潜在的其他许可协议，苹果现在已被确认可以合法地接受这些款项。</p>
</div><h2>Is Apple falling behind in AI?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果在 AI 领域是否落后？</h2>
</div><p>Keeping the Google payment likely led to a sigh of relief from Apple shareholders. A ruling in the other direction would have wiped out hundreds of billions in value from Apple's market capitalization and led to a fall in the stock price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>保留谷歌的支付可能让苹果的股东松了一口气。如果裁决结果相反，将会使苹果的市值蒸发数千亿美元，并导致股价下跌。</p>
</div><p>What shareholders should be concerned about today is Apple falling behind in AI. Its branded &#34;Apple Intelligence&#34; products have fallen flat with consumers, and its advanced new hardware tools powered with AI, such as the Vision Pro, have been flops. To make matters worse, Apple has reportedly lost a ton of AI developer talent to the likes of OpenAI, XAI, and Alphabet, which could further leave it behind the curve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股东们今天应该关注的是苹果在 AI 领域是否落后。其品牌的 “苹果智能” 产品在消费者中反响平平，而其搭载 AI 的新硬件工具，如 Vision Pro，表现不佳。更糟糕的是，苹果据报道失去了大量 AI 开发人才，流向了 OpenAI、XAI 和 Alphabet 等公司，这可能进一步使其在竞争中处于劣势。</p>
</div><p>That has led Apple to come back to its old strategy of technology licensing. It is with the same company that makes Google Search: Alphabet. Alphabet's Gemini chatbot is not as popular as ChatGPT today, but Alphabet has the leading infrastructure to scale usage across billions of users given its cloud and semiconductor investments. Along with the court case ruling, news outlets are reporting that a new AI search tool with Siri could be powered by Gemini, although a deal has not been finalized.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得苹果重新回到了其旧有的技术许可战略。它与制造谷歌搜索的同一家公司：Alphabet。Alphabet 的 Gemini 聊天机器人目前不如 ChatGPT 受欢迎，但由于其在云计算和半导体投资方面的领先基础设施，能够在数十亿用户中扩展使用。随着法院裁决的结果，新闻媒体报道，新的 AI 搜索工具可能会由 Siri 驱动 Gemini，尽管协议尚未最终确定。</p>
</div><p>The question is: Will Apple receive a payment from Alphabet for this partnership? It is unclear exactly how a deal would work out today given the differences between AI and the traditional search engine market. Building and deploying AI is expensive. If Apple is going to power Siri with Gemini, it may need to foot some of this bill.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题是：苹果会因这项合作从 Alphabet 获得支付吗？鉴于 AI 与传统搜索引擎市场之间的差异，目前尚不清楚协议将如何运作。构建和部署 AI 是昂贵的。如果苹果要用 Gemini 为 Siri 提供动力，可能需要承担部分费用。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1c669243d09e4b2144863ce2bfbd4cdd.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1c669243d09e4b2144863ce2bfbd4cdd.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>What it all means for Apple stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对苹果股票意味着什么</h2>
</div><p>It is clearly a positive that Apple can still receive $20 billion or more a year from Alphabet. In the long run, a stock will appreciate in price along with its underlying profitability, and if Apple can milk $100 billion in total licensing revenue from Alphabet over the next five years, all the better for the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果每年仍能从 Alphabet 获得 200 亿美元或更多的收入显然是个积极信号。从长远来看，股票的价格将随着其基本盈利能力的提升而上涨，如果苹果在未来五年内能从 Alphabet 获得 1000 亿美元的总许可收入，对业务来说无疑是更好的。</p>
</div><p>But what should give investors pause is the changing dynamics of the search engine and AI chatbot market. Five years from now, search may be totally upended by ChatGPT or even Alphabet's homegrown Gemini chatbot, which would eliminate the Google Search licensing deal that was just given the go-ahead by the United States court system. With a market cap of $3.5 trillion, $100 billion in earnings over five years is not particularly relevant for anyone considering buying Apple stock today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但投资者应该关注的是搜索引擎和 AI 聊天机器人市场的动态变化。五年后，搜索可能会被 ChatGPT 或 Alphabet 自家开发的 Gemini 聊天机器人彻底颠覆，这将消除刚刚获得美国法院批准的谷歌搜索许可协议。以 3.5 万亿美元的市值来看，五年内获得 1000 亿美元的收益对于今天考虑购买苹果股票的人来说并不特别相关。</p>
</div><p>What Apple needs to figure out -- and what investors need to think about -- is how to be the go-to personal computing hardware for the AI era. Whether through new computing form factors or licensing deals with the AI software makers, Apple's earnings should grow over the long term if it can be the No.1 way people access both the <em>internet and AI</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果需要弄清楚的是——投资者需要思考的是——如何成为 AI 时代的首选个人计算硬件。无论是通过新的计算形式还是与 AI 软件制造商的许可协议，如果苹果能够成为人们访问互联网和 AI 的首要方式，其收益在长期内应该会增长。</p>
</div><p>Uncertainty abounds over whether Apple can make this happen. With an expensive-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 36, the stock is not reflecting this uncertainty. It is probably best for investors to avoid buying Apple stock for the time being.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于苹果是否能实现这一目标存在许多不确定性。以 36 的市盈率来看，股票并未反映这种不确定性。投资者可能最好暂时避免购买苹果股票。</p>
</div>

Apple's $20 Billion Search Payment Survives: Here's What It Means for the Stock

- 美国法院裁定苹果可合法收取谷歌的 20 亿美元许可费。  
- 此判决缓解了苹果股东的担忧，股价上涨 4%。  
- 然而，苹果在人工智能领域的竞争力仍需关注。  

苹果 200 亿美元的搜索支付协议得以保留：这对其股票意味着什么