<p>（无变化重复）</p><p>周四发布的 CPI 数据，PPI 则在前一天发布</p><p>市场普遍预计美联储将在 9 月 16-17 日会议上降息</p><p>周五疲弱的就业报告提高了宽松的预期</p><p>法院裁决后关税不确定性重新浮现</p><p>作者：路易斯·克劳斯科普夫</p><p>纽约，9 月 5 日（路透社）——在即将到来的这一周，随着市场面临关于关税和政府债券收益率的新不确定性，美国股票投资者将迎来一系列通胀数据，而股市则在高估值附近徘徊。尽管 9 月开局不平稳，但基准标准普尔 500 指数（.SPX）周四仍创下历史新高，过去 35 年中，9 月通常是股票表现最差的月份。周五，随着美国 8 月就业报告显示就业增长疲软，股市出现回调。</p><p>“9 月通常被认为会削弱市场情绪，” Manulife John Hancock Investments 的联合首席投资策略师马修·米斯金表示。</p><p>与此同时，他表示，“目前股票并没有定价很多风险。它们看起来已经完全被高估。”</p><p>周四发布的美国消费者价格指数突显了下周的经济数据，投资者关注通胀数据对利率削减前景和关税对价格影响的信号。在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上个月末的讲话中提到就业风险上升后，市场普遍预计美联储将在 9 月 16-17 日的会议上首次降息，时隔九个月。</p><p>在疲弱的就业报告后，投资者押注于更大幅度的宽松。</p><p>根据 LSEG 截至周五下午的数据，联邦基金期货显示会议上降息 25 个基点的概率为 90%，降息 50 个基点的概率约为 10%。</p><p>只有 CPI 数据 “远高于” 预期，才能削弱对货币政策即将宽松的假设，B Riley Wealth 的首席市场策略师阿特·霍根表示。</p><p>根据期货数据，到 12 月预计将有约 70 个基点的宽松，或近三次标准降息。</p><p>最近，“美联储降息的前景一直是推动股市情绪更积极的主要因素，” 米斯金表示。“如果这一趋势逆转，那么对股市可能会造成问题。” 除了 CPI，周三的生产者价格报告也可能揭示进口关税的影响。上个月的 PPI 数据显示，美国生产者价格在 7 月上涨幅度为三年来最大，因商品和服务成本激增。今年早些时候，关税及其经济影响是市场面临的主要风险，但其他因素，如对美联储独立性的质疑和对人工智能交易的谨慎，最近变得更加突出。随着美国上诉法院裁定特朗普总统的大部分关税是非法的，这一问题本周重新浮出水面。尽管特朗普政府已请求美国最高法院审理保留这些广泛关税的申请，但这一裁决为市场注入了新的不确定性。</p><p>“感觉贸易战的迷雾正在消散，而现在我们又回到了其中，” 霍根表示。“这对美国企业、消费者和投资者的决策没有帮助。” 投资者表示，关税收入的潜在损失加剧了美国财政赤字，这可能是导致美国长期政府债务收益率在本周初大幅上升的一个因素，这一走势也跟随了英国和其他地区收益率的大幅跳升。尽管全球长期收益率随后有所平稳，但其飙升被认为是本周初股市疲软的一个原因。本周 30 年期美国国债收益率首次突破 5%。这一收益率水平在过去几年对风险偏好造成了 “问题”，LPL Financial 的首席技术策略师亚当·特恩奎斯特表示。长期债券收益率最后约为 4.78%，在就业数据发布后收益率普遍下跌。标准普尔 500 指数今年迄今上涨约 10%，最近受到第二季度强劲财报季的推动。根据 LSEG Datastream，标准普尔 500 指数的市盈率攀升至 22.4 倍，基于未来 12 个月的盈利预期，这一估值远高于其长期平均水平 15.9 倍。</p><p>“投资者面临来自贸易和关税不确定性的持续威胁，以及可能的经济数据发布……这些都可能最终挑战高企的股票估值，” Ameriprise Financial 的首席市场策略师安东尼·萨格林贝内在一篇评论中写道。</p><p>“也就是说，投资者已经在几个月内应对这些动态，股票仍然持续上涨。”</p>

标普 500 指数

<p>美国股市投资者下周将面临通胀数据，周四将公布消费者物价指数（CPI）报告，前一天将公布生产者物价指数（PPI）。市场预计在 9 月 16 日至 17 日的会议上，美联储将降息，此前的就业报告表现疲弱。由于法院裁定特朗普大部分关税为非法，关税不确定性再次浮现。标普 500 指数仍接近历史高位，但分析师警告称，股票在持续的贸易风险和潜在经济挑战下似乎已完全被高估</p>

<p>(Repeats with no changes)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（无变化重复）</p>
</div><p>CPI data set for Thursday, PPI a day earlier</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四发布的 CPI 数据，PPI 则在前一天发布</p>
</div><p>Markets widely expect Fed rate cut at September 16-17 meeting</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场普遍预计美联储将在 9 月 16-17 日会议上降息</p>
</div><p>Weak jobs report on Friday raises expectations for easing</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五疲弱的就业报告提高了宽松的预期</p>
</div><p>Tariff uncertainty re-emerges following court ruling</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法院裁决后关税不确定性重新浮现</p>
</div><p>By Lewis Krauskopf</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：路易斯·克劳斯科普夫</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Sept 5 (Reuters) - A spate of inflation data confronts U.S. stock investors in the coming week as markets grapple with fresh uncertainty over tariffs and government bond yields, while equities hover at lofty valuations. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 index (.SPX) closed at a record high on Thursday despite an uneven start to September, which has been the worst month for stocks on average over the past 35 years. Stocks were pulling back on Friday after the monthly U.S. employment report showed job growth weakened in August.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，9 月 5 日（路透社）——在即将到来的这一周，随着市场面临关于关税和政府债券收益率的新不确定性，美国股票投资者将迎来一系列通胀数据，而股市则在高估值附近徘徊。尽管 9 月开局不平稳，但基准标准普尔 500 指数（.SPX）周四仍创下历史新高，过去 35 年中，9 月通常是股票表现最差的月份。周五，随着美国 8 月就业报告显示就业增长疲软，股市出现回调。</p>
</div><p>“September has been known to see a wearing down of the sentiment picture,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“9 月通常被认为会削弱市场情绪，” Manulife John Hancock Investments 的联合首席投资策略师马修·米斯金表示。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, he said, “stocks aren’t pricing in a lot of risks right now. They look fully valued.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，他表示，“目前股票并没有定价很多风险。它们看起来已经完全被高估。”</p>
</div><p>The monthly U.S. consumer price index on Thursday highlights next week’s economic releases, with investors focused on signals from the inflation data about the prospects for interest rate cuts and the fallout from tariffs on prices. Following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks late last month that flagged rising risks to employment, markets have been widely expecting the central bank to lower rates for the first time in nine months at its September 16-17 meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四发布的美国消费者价格指数突显了下周的经济数据，投资者关注通胀数据对利率削减前景和关税对价格影响的信号。在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上个月末的讲话中提到就业风险上升后，市场普遍预计美联储将在 9 月 16-17 日的会议上首次降息，时隔九个月。</p>
</div><p>Investors bet on even more accelerated easing after the weak jobs report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在疲弱的就业报告后，投资者押注于更大幅度的宽松。</p>
</div><p>Fed Funds futures were baking in a 90% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the meeting, and a roughly 10% chance of a heftier half-percentage point cut, LSEG data as of Friday afternoon showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 LSEG 截至周五下午的数据，联邦基金期货显示会议上降息 25 个基点的概率为 90%，降息 50 个基点的概率约为 10%。</p>
</div><p>Only a CPI number that comes in “egregiously higher” than estimates could dent assumptions of imminent monetary policy easing, said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只有 CPI 数据 “远高于” 预期，才能削弱对货币政策即将宽松的假设，B Riley Wealth 的首席市场策略师阿特·霍根表示。</p>
</div><p>About 70 basis points of easing, or nearly three standard cuts, are projected by December, according to the futures data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据期货数据，到 12 月预计将有约 70 个基点的宽松，或近三次标准降息。</p>
</div><p>Recently, “the prospect of the Fed cutting has been the overwhelming factor driving equity sentiment to be more positive,” Miskin said. “And so if that reverses, then it could be problematic for equities.” Along with CPI, a Wednesday report on producer prices could also reveal impacts from import tariffs. Last month’s PPI data showed U.S. producer prices increased by the most in three years in July as the costs of goods and services surged. Tariffs and their economic implications were the main risk facing markets earlier this year, but other factors such as questions over Fed independence and caution about the artificial intelligence trade have been more prominent recently. The issue returned to the fore this week after a U.S. appeals court ruled that most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs are illegal. While the Trump administration has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to hear a bid to preserve the sweeping tariffs, the ruling injected fresh uncertainty for markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，“美联储降息的前景一直是推动股市情绪更积极的主要因素，” 米斯金表示。“如果这一趋势逆转，那么对股市可能会造成问题。” 除了 CPI，周三的生产者价格报告也可能揭示进口关税的影响。上个月的 PPI 数据显示，美国生产者价格在 7 月上涨幅度为三年来最大，因商品和服务成本激增。今年早些时候，关税及其经济影响是市场面临的主要风险，但其他因素，如对美联储独立性的质疑和对人工智能交易的谨慎，最近变得更加突出。随着美国上诉法院裁定特朗普总统的大部分关税是非法的，这一问题本周重新浮出水面。尽管特朗普政府已请求美国最高法院审理保留这些广泛关税的申请，但这一裁决为市场注入了新的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>“It felt as though the fog of trade war was clearing, and now we’re just back into the thick of it,” Hogan said. “And that doesn’t help corporate America make decisions, consumers make decisions, and investors make decisions.” The potential of lost tariff revenue exacerbating the U.S. fiscal deficit was one factor investors said may have driven long-dated U.S. government debt yields sharply higher at the start of the week, moves that also followed big jumps in yields in the UK and other regions. While long-dated yields globally have since calmed, their spikes were cited as contributing to stock weakness initially during the week. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield this week hit 5% for the first time in over a month. That yield level has been “problematic” for risk appetite over the past few years, said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for LPL Financial. The long-bond yield was last around 4.78%, with yields falling broadly on Friday after the jobs data. The S&amp;P 500 was up about 10% so far in 2025, helped recently by a solid second-quarter earnings season. The S&amp;P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio climbed to 22.4 times, based on earnings estimates for the next 12 months, a valuation well above its long-term average of 15.9, according to LSEG Datastream.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“感觉贸易战的迷雾正在消散，而现在我们又回到了其中，” 霍根表示。“这对美国企业、消费者和投资者的决策没有帮助。” 投资者表示，关税收入的潜在损失加剧了美国财政赤字，这可能是导致美国长期政府债务收益率在本周初大幅上升的一个因素，这一走势也跟随了英国和其他地区收益率的大幅跳升。尽管全球长期收益率随后有所平稳，但其飙升被认为是本周初股市疲软的一个原因。本周 30 年期美国国债收益率首次突破 5%。这一收益率水平在过去几年对风险偏好造成了 “问题”，LPL Financial 的首席技术策略师亚当·特恩奎斯特表示。长期债券收益率最后约为 4.78%，在就业数据发布后收益率普遍下跌。标准普尔 500 指数今年迄今上涨约 10%，最近受到第二季度强劲财报季的推动。根据 LSEG Datastream，标准普尔 500 指数的市盈率攀升至 22.4 倍，基于未来 12 个月的盈利预期，这一估值远高于其长期平均水平 15.9 倍。</p>
</div><p>“Investors face ongoing threats from trade and tariff unknowns as well as potential economic releases … that could ultimately challenge elevated stock valuations,” Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, wrote in a commentary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“投资者面临来自贸易和关税不确定性的持续威胁，以及可能的经济数据发布……这些都可能最终挑战高企的股票估值，” Ameriprise Financial 的首席市场策略师安东尼·萨格林贝内在一篇评论中写道。</p>
</div><p>“That said, investors have been navigating those dynamics for months, and stocks have continued to grind higher.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“也就是说，投资者已经在几个月内应对这些动态，股票仍然持续上涨。”</p>
</div>

华尔街下周展望——随着股票接近历史高位，通胀数据对市场形成压力