<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.16%) 通常被视为可靠的蓝筹股。它拥有全球最知名的品牌之一，能够将用户锁定在其硬件设备和粘性服务中，并通过回购和分红向投资者返还大量现金。</p>
<p>但在过去三年中，苹果的股价仅上涨了 51%，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 上涨了 63%。由于投资者对其疲软的 iPhone 销售、特朗普政府对中国不可预测的关税以及其平淡的人工智能（AI）战略感到担忧，苹果的表现不及大盘。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4MjQvYXBwbGUtc3RvcmUtZmlmdGgtYXZlbnVlLW5ldy15b3JrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4MjQvYXBwbGUtc3RvcmUtZmlmdGgtYXZlbnVlLW5ldy15b3JrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：苹果。</p>
<p><strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -1.26%)(BRK.B -1.40%)，仍将苹果视为其最大持股，过去两年却出售了约 57% 的股份。这些警示信号表明苹果的股票正在失去动力，但在接下来的三年里，它会反弹并上涨吗？</p>
<h2>苹果在过去几年发生了什么？</h2>
<p>在 2025 财年的前九个月（截至今年九月），苹果仍然有 51% 的净销售额来自 iPhone。另有 26% 来自其服务部门，包括 App Store、iCloud 和各种基于订阅的服务。剩余的 23% 来自其 Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备、配件和其他产品。</p>
<p>苹果在很大程度上依赖其服务部门的增长，该部门目前拥有超过 10 亿个付费订阅，以弥补 iPhone 和其他硬件设备销售的放缓。以下是这两个核心业务在过去几年的表现。</p>
<p>| 指标 | 2022 财年 | 2023 财年 | 2024 财年 | 2025 年 9 个月 |
| iPhone 销售增长（同比）| 7% | (2%) | 0% | 4% |
| 服务销售增长（同比）| 14% | 9% | 13% | 13% |
| 总销售增长（同比）| 8% | (3%) | 2% | 6% |</p>
<p>数据来源：苹果。同比 = 年同比。</p>
<p>在 2022 财年，随着疫情封锁的结束、供应链的正常化以及满足了对新手机的压抑需求，苹果的 iPhone 销售加速增长。但在 2023 财年和 2024 财年，其 iPhone 销售再次停滞，因为它经历了那一轮暂时的增长，面临来自中国的更强竞争对手，以及 5G 升级周期的降温。缺乏有意义的升级也阻止了许多 iPhone 用户更换他们的老旧设备。</p>
<p>在 2025 财年，苹果的 iPhone 销售再次回暖。iPhone 16 的强劲发布得益于对其高端 Pro 型号的强劲需求，而对中国更高关税的威胁促使许多消费者在关税生效前升级他们的设备。它还在中国降低了价格，以利用对 6000 元（约 840 美元）以下的智能手机、平板电脑和智能手表的 15% 补贴，并通过低端 iPhone 16e 吸引了更多注重成本的消费者。其 iPhone 销售在包括印度、中东、南亚和巴西等主要新兴市场实现了两位数的增长，弥补了其成熟市场的销售放缓。</p>
<p>随着苹果的 iPhone 销售再次上升，它将更多用户锁定在其服务中。这一策略应继续推动其长期增长，并扩大其在其他科技公司中的护城河——即使其苹果智能化的努力并没有像 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 或 <strong>谷歌</strong>(GOOG 1.04%)(GOOGL 1.13%) 的 Gemini 那样引起广泛关注。它还应该为开发新硬件产品或改进现有产品（如令人失望的 Vision Pro 耳机）赢得更多时间，以逐步减少对 iPhone 的依赖。苹果在最新的季度结束时拥有 1330 亿美元的现金和可流通证券，这为其进行更多回购、提高分红或扩展生态系统的收购提供了充足的空间。过去三年中，它回购了 7% 的股份，并连续 12 年提高分红。</p>
<h2>苹果在接下来的三年会发生什么？</h2>
<p>从 2024 财年到 2027 财年，分析师预计苹果的收入和每股收益（EPS）将分别以 6% 和 13% 的年复合增长率（CAGR）增长。很多增长应该由即将推出的 iPhone 推动。最新的传闻表明，今年 iPhone 17 将全面改版，并在 2026 年和 2027 年推出可折叠或曲面 iPhone。这些戏剧性的变化可能会促使更多用户升级他们的旧 iPhone。</p>
<p>其其他潜在催化剂包括更实惠的 Vision Pro、新的智能家居和可穿戴产品，以及对其 AI 生态系统的升级。它还应该继续开发更多自有芯片，以减少对 <strong>高通</strong>(QCOM 0.01%) 等第三方芯片制造商的依赖。</p>
<p>假设苹果达到这些预期，在 2028 财年每股收益再增长 10%，并且仍以 32 倍的市盈率交易，那么其股价在接下来的三年中可能上涨约 30%，达到 308 美元。这将是一个健康的收益，至少可以与标准普尔 500 指数相匹配——自成立以来，标准普尔 500 指数的年均回报约为 10%——但这可能不会让那些期待更大改变的投资者感到满意。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果的股票表现不及市场，过去三年仅上涨了 51%，而标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 63%。对 iPhone 销售疲软和竞争的担忧影响了其表现。然而，苹果正在经历 iPhone 销售的复苏，这得益于 iPhone 16 的强劲发布和在中国的战略定价。分析师预测，从 2024 财年到 2027 财年，收入将增长 6%，每股收益将增长 13%，这得益于新 iPhone 设计和潜在的产品扩展。苹果保持强劲的现金储备用于股票回购和分红，显示出投资者的持续信心</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.16%) is usually considered a reliable blue chip stock. It owns one of the world's most well-known brands, it locks its users into its hardware devices and sticky services, and it returns plenty of cash to its investors through its buybacks and dividends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.16%) 通常被视为可靠的蓝筹股。它拥有全球最知名的品牌之一，能够将用户锁定在其硬件设备和粘性服务中，并通过回购和分红向投资者返还大量现金。</p>
</div><p>But over the past three years, Apple's stock only rose 51% as the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> advanced 63%. It underperformed the market as investors fretted over its sluggish iPhone sales, the Trump administration's unpredictable tariffs against China, and its lackluster artificial intelligence (AI) strategies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在过去三年中，苹果的股价仅上涨了 51%，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 上涨了 63%。由于投资者对其疲软的 iPhone 销售、特朗普政府对中国不可预测的关税以及其平淡的人工智能（AI）战略感到担忧，苹果的表现不及大盘。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4MjQvYXBwbGUtc3RvcmUtZmlmdGgtYXZlbnVlLW5ldy15b3JrLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831824%2Fapple-store-fifth-avenue-new-york.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：苹果。</p>
</div><p><strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -1.26%)(BRK.B -1.40%), which still holds Apple as its top stock, even sold about 57% of its shares over the past two years. Those red flags suggest that Apple's stock is running out of steam, but will it bounce back and head higher over the next three years?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -1.26%)(BRK.B -1.40%)，仍将苹果视为其最大持股，过去两年却出售了约 57% 的股份。这些警示信号表明苹果的股票正在失去动力，但在接下来的三年里，它会反弹并上涨吗？</p>
</div><h2>What happened to Apple over the past few years?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果在过去几年发生了什么？</h2>
</div><p>In the first nine months of fiscal 2025 (which ends this September), Apple still generated 51% of its net sales from the iPhone. Another 26% came from its services segment, which houses its App Store, iCloud, and various subscription-based services. The remaining 23% came from its Macs, iPads, wearables, accessories, and other products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 财年的前九个月（截至今年九月），苹果仍然有 51% 的净销售额来自 iPhone。另有 26% 来自其服务部门，包括 App Store、iCloud 和各种基于订阅的服务。剩余的 23% 来自其 Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备、配件和其他产品。</p>
</div><p>Apple relies heavily on the growth of its services segment, which now hosts over 1 billion paid subscriptions, to offset its slower sales of iPhones and other hardware devices. Here's how those two core businesses fared over the past few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在很大程度上依赖其服务部门的增长，该部门目前拥有超过 10 亿个付费订阅，以弥补 iPhone 和其他硬件设备销售的放缓。以下是这两个核心业务在过去几年的表现。</p>
</div><p>| Metric | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | 9M 2025 |
| iPhone sales growth (YOY) | 7% | (2%) | 0% | 4% |
| Services sales growth (YOY) | 14% | 9% | 13% | 13% |
| Total sales growth (YOY) | 8% | (3%) | 2% | 6% |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>| 指标 | 2022 财年 | 2023 财年 | 2024 财年 | 2025 年 9 个月 |
| iPhone 销售增长（同比）| 7% | (2%) | 0% | 4% |
| 服务销售增长（同比）| 14% | 9% | 13% | 13% |
| 总销售增长（同比）| 8% | (3%) | 2% | 6% |</p>
</div><p>Data source: Apple. YOY = Year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：苹果。同比 = 年同比。</p>
</div><p>In fiscal 2022, Apple's iPhone sales accelerated as the pandemic lockdowns passed, its supply chains normalized, and it satisfied that pent-up demand for new phones. But in fiscal 2023 and fiscal 2024, its iPhone sales stalled out again as it lapped that temporary growth spurt, it faced tougher competitors in China, and the 5G upgrade cycle cooled off. A lack of meaningful upgrades also prevented many iPhone users from replacing their aging devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2022 财年，随着疫情封锁的结束、供应链的正常化以及满足了对新手机的压抑需求，苹果的 iPhone 销售加速增长。但在 2023 财年和 2024 财年，其 iPhone 销售再次停滞，因为它经历了那一轮暂时的增长，面临来自中国的更强竞争对手，以及 5G 升级周期的降温。缺乏有意义的升级也阻止了许多 iPhone 用户更换他们的老旧设备。</p>
</div><p>In fiscal 2025, Apple's iPhone sales warmed up again. The iPhone 16 experienced a strong launch driven by the robust demand for its top-tier Pro models, while the threat of higher tariffs against China drove many consumers to upgrade their devices before those rates kicked in. It also cut its prices in China to benefit from a 15% subsidy on purchases of smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches under 6,000 yuan ($840), and it reached more cost-conscious consumers with the lower-end iPhone 16e. Its iPhone sales grew by the double digits across its top emerging markets -- including India, the Middle East, South Asia, and Brazil -- and offset its slower sales in its mature markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 财年，苹果的 iPhone 销售再次回暖。iPhone 16 的强劲发布得益于对其高端 Pro 型号的强劲需求，而对中国更高关税的威胁促使许多消费者在关税生效前升级他们的设备。它还在中国降低了价格，以利用对 6000 元（约 840 美元）以下的智能手机、平板电脑和智能手表的 15% 补贴，并通过低端 iPhone 16e 吸引了更多注重成本的消费者。其 iPhone 销售在包括印度、中东、南亚和巴西等主要新兴市场实现了两位数的增长，弥补了其成熟市场的销售放缓。</p>
</div><p>As Apple's iPhone sales rose again, it locked more users into its services. That strategy should continue to drive its long-term growth and widen its moat against other tech companies -- even if its Apple Intelligence efforts aren't turning as many heads as OpenAI's ChatGPT or <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s (GOOG 1.04%)(GOOGL 1.13%) Google Gemini. It should also buy it more time to develop new hardware products or refine its existing ones (like the disappointing Vision Pro headset) to gradually reduce its dependence on the iPhone. Apple ended its latest quarter with $133 billion in cash and marketable securities, which gives it plenty of room for more buybacks, dividend hikes, or ecosystem-expanding acquisitions. It bought back 7% of its shares over the past three years, and it's raised its dividend annually for 12 consecutive years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着苹果的 iPhone 销售再次上升，它将更多用户锁定在其服务中。这一策略应继续推动其长期增长，并扩大其在其他科技公司中的护城河——即使其苹果智能化的努力并没有像 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 或 <strong>谷歌</strong>(GOOG 1.04%)(GOOGL 1.13%) 的 Gemini 那样引起广泛关注。它还应该为开发新硬件产品或改进现有产品（如令人失望的 Vision Pro 耳机）赢得更多时间，以逐步减少对 iPhone 的依赖。苹果在最新的季度结束时拥有 1330 亿美元的现金和可流通证券，这为其进行更多回购、提高分红或扩展生态系统的收购提供了充足的空间。过去三年中，它回购了 7% 的股份，并连续 12 年提高分红。</p>
</div><h2>What will happen to Apple over the next three years?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果在接下来的三年会发生什么？</h2>
</div><p>From fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2027, analysts expect Apple's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% and 13%, respectively. A lot of that growth should be driven by its upcoming iPhones. The latest rumors suggest it will overhaul its entire design with the iPhone 17 this year -- and follow it up with foldable or curved iPhones in 2026 and 2027. Those dramatic changes might drive more of its users to upgrade their older iPhones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2024 财年到 2027 财年，分析师预计苹果的收入和每股收益（EPS）将分别以 6% 和 13% 的年复合增长率（CAGR）增长。很多增长应该由即将推出的 iPhone 推动。最新的传闻表明，今年 iPhone 17 将全面改版，并在 2026 年和 2027 年推出可折叠或曲面 iPhone。这些戏剧性的变化可能会促使更多用户升级他们的旧 iPhone。</p>
</div><p>Its other potential catalysts include a more affordable Vision Pro, new smart home and wearable products, and upgrades to its AI ecosystem. It should also continue to develop more first-party chips to reduce its dependence on third-party chipmakers like <strong>Qualcomm</strong>(QCOM 0.01%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其其他潜在催化剂包括更实惠的 Vision Pro、新的智能家居和可穿戴产品，以及对其 AI 生态系统的升级。它还应该继续开发更多自有芯片，以减少对 <strong>高通</strong>(QCOM 0.01%) 等第三方芯片制造商的依赖。</p>
</div><p>Assuming Apple meets those estimates, grows its EPS another 10% in fiscal 2028, and still trades at 32 times earnings, then its stock could rise about 30% to $308 over the next three years. That would be a healthy gain that could at least match the S&amp;P 500 -- which has delivered an average annual return of about 10% since its inception -- but it might not impress investors who expected bigger life-changing gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假设苹果达到这些预期，在 2028 财年每股收益再增长 10%，并且仍以 32 倍的市盈率交易，那么其股价在接下来的三年中可能上涨约 30%，达到 308 美元。这将是一个健康的收益，至少可以与标准普尔 500 指数相匹配——自成立以来，标准普尔 500 指数的年均回报约为 10%——但这可能不会让那些期待更大改变的投资者感到满意。</p>
</div>

Where Will Apple Stock Be in 3 Years?

- 苹果公司在过去三年股价上涨 51%，低于标普 500 指数的 63% 增长。  
- 2025 财年，iPhone 占净销售额的 51%，服务业务增长稳定。  
- 分析师预计 2024 至 2027 财年，苹果收入年均增长 6%，每股收益增长 13%。

三年后苹果的股票会达到什么水平？