<p>尽管美国电动车（EV）市场的增长速度比预期慢，但未来几乎肯定会朝这个方向发展。找到合适的电动车制造商并长期持有可能会为投资者带来丰厚的回报，但选择合适的电动车制造商并非易事。我们将快速回顾一下，为什么聪明的投资者可能会面临即将到来的买入机会。</p>
<h2>买入机会</h2>
<p>对于消费者来说，预计在 9 月底之前，电动车将会有大幅折扣和激励措施，因为 7500 美元的联邦税收抵免将在此时正式结束。</p>
<p>这意味着消费者在税收抵免消失之前会急于购买，从而产生了需求的 “拉动效应”。虽然这对电动车制造商在第三季度来说是件好事，但在第四季度将会出现同样强烈的需求低迷，可能需要几个月才能恢复正常。</p>
<p>考虑到电动车行业在第四季度可能面临的困难，这可能提供了一个买入机会——但哪些电动车制造商值得你的投资呢？</p>
<h2>买入这个：Rivian</h2>
<p>如果你必须选择一个在第四季度放缓中受影响较小的电动车制造商，那很可能是 <strong>Rivian</strong>（RIVN 3.69%）。这主要是因为该汽车制造商在 2025 年没有新车发布，并且其 R1 车型的需求已经开始减弱。相反，<strong>Lucid</strong> 最近推出了其 Gravity SUV 电动车，并且正好在放缓之际开始加速生产——这真是时机不佳。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIwNjgvMjAyMi1yaXZpYW4tcjFzLTA3LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIwNjgvMjAyMi1yaXZpYW4tcjFzLTA3LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>Rivian 的 R1S。图片来源：Rivian。</p>
<p>话虽如此，Rivian 已经为其备受期待的 R2 SUV 在 2026 年上半年推出做好了准备，随后将推出 R3 和 R3X。这对该汽车制造商的短期发展至关重要，原因有几个。</p>
<p>首先，Rivian 专注于显著降低 R2 的生产成本，相较于其旗舰 R1 系列车型。Rivian 减少了一半的材料清单（BOM），并开发了一种新的精简制造流程，采用了新的压铸方法等。</p>
<p>其次，部分由于所有这些成本降低和流程改进，R2 的起售价将约为 45,000 美元，比其 R1 前身便宜数万美元。这将显著打开更主流的美国消费者市场。2026 年将成为 Rivian 更具盈利潜力的一年，而美国电动车市场也应该在此时恢复，为电动车制造商加速生产至关重要的 R2 做好准备。</p>
<h2>不买这个：VinFast Auto</h2>
<p><strong>VinFast Auto</strong>（VFS 0.30%）曾是一个引人注目的电动车投资，如果能够从其主导的越南市场扩展到美国和欧洲，将有巨大的上行空间。不幸的是，该电动车制造商以昂贵的扩张计划试图大展拳脚，但最终失败了。</p>
<p>现在，该公司正在收缩其全球雄心，专注于亚洲市场，并似乎在创始人兼首席执行官 Pham Nhat Vuong 承诺再向该汽车制造商提供 15 亿美元以换取研发资产后，急需新资本。</p>
<p>部分由于其全球扩张尝试，这家越南电动车制造商在第二季度报告了 8.12 亿美元的净亏损，比去年增加了 15%。</p>
<p>这些数字也没有好转，第二季度车辆交付量大幅增长 172%，但收入仅增长 91%，显示出定价疲软。此外，尽管第二季度交付量大幅增长 172%，该公司的上半年总交付量仅为 72,167 辆，远低于其 20 万辆的年度目标。</p>
<p>VinFast 迄今未能打破美国或欧洲市场的代码，正在大量亏损，可能仅限于其越南市场，这对投资者来说并不足以承担持有该股票的风险。相反，尽管 Rivian 的股票今年表现不佳，但明年对该汽车制造商来说将是一个重要年份，而第四季度可能会为你提供一个买入机会，以开始建立一个小的持仓。</p>

RIVN

<p>美国电动车（EV）市场正面临放缓，为投资者创造了潜在的买入机会。由于 Rivian 将在 2026 年推出 R2 SUV 并进行成本削减，因此被推荐为强劲投资；而 VinFast Auto 则因其全球扩张失败和重大亏损而不被推荐。Rivian 的股票可能在第四季度提供买入机会，而 VinFast 则在努力实现目标的同时，可能仅限于越南市场</p>

<p>While the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market has accelerated more slowly off the line than predicted, the future is still almost certainly headed in that direction. Finding the right EV makers and holding them long term could prove lucrative for investors, but picking the right EV maker is easier said than done. We'll take a quick look at why there might be an upcoming buying opportunity for savvy investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美国电动车（EV）市场的增长速度比预期慢，但未来几乎肯定会朝这个方向发展。找到合适的电动车制造商并长期持有可能会为投资者带来丰厚的回报，但选择合适的电动车制造商并非易事。我们将快速回顾一下，为什么聪明的投资者可能会面临即将到来的买入机会。</p>
</div><h2>A buying opportunity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>买入机会</h2>
</div><p>For consumers, you can expect serious discounts and incentives on EVs through the end of September, when the $7,500 federal tax credit on EV purchases officially ends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于消费者来说，预计在 9 月底之前，电动车将会有大幅折扣和激励措施，因为 7500 美元的联邦税收抵免将在此时正式结束。</p>
</div><p>That means there's a &#34;pull-through&#34; of demand from consumers rushing in to buy before the credit is gone. As wonderful as that will be for EV makers during the third quarter, it sets up a whiplash when an equally strong lull in demand will follow during the fourth quarter, and it may take months to normalize.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着消费者在税收抵免消失之前会急于购买，从而产生了需求的 “拉动效应”。虽然这对电动车制造商在第三季度来说是件好事，但在第四季度将会出现同样强烈的需求低迷，可能需要几个月才能恢复正常。</p>
</div><p>With a rough fourth quarter in store for the EV industry, it could provide a buying opportunity -- but which EV makers deserve your investment?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到电动车行业在第四季度可能面临的困难，这可能提供了一个买入机会——但哪些电动车制造商值得你的投资呢？</p>
</div><h2>Buy this: Rivian</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>买入这个：Rivian</h2>
</div><p>If you had to pick one EV maker that will be impacted less by the fourth-quarter slowdown, it would likely be <strong>Rivian</strong>(RIVN 3.69%). That's simply because the automaker has no vehicle launches in 2025 and has already seen softening demand for its R1 vehicles. On the flip side of that scenario is <strong>Lucid</strong>, which recently launched its Gravity SUV EV and is just beginning to accelerate production right as the slowdown hits -- simply unfortunate timing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你必须选择一个在第四季度放缓中受影响较小的电动车制造商，那很可能是 <strong>Rivian</strong>（RIVN 3.69%）。这主要是因为该汽车制造商在 2025 年没有新车发布，并且其 R1 车型的需求已经开始减弱。相反，<strong>Lucid</strong> 最近推出了其 Gravity SUV 电动车，并且正好在放缓之际开始加速生产——这真是时机不佳。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIwNjgvMjAyMi1yaXZpYW4tcjFzLTA3LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832068%2F2022-rivian-r1s-07.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Rivian's R1S. Image source: Rivian.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 的 R1S。图片来源：Rivian。</p>
</div><p>That said, Rivian has positioned itself to take a big step forward when it launches its highly anticipated R2 SUV in the first half of 2026, followed later by the R3 and R3X. It's going to be absolutely crucial to the automaker's near term for a couple of reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，Rivian 已经为其备受期待的 R2 SUV 在 2026 年上半年推出做好了准备，随后将推出 R3 和 R3X。这对该汽车制造商的短期发展至关重要，原因有几个。</p>
</div><p>First, Rivian focused on significantly reducing the cost to produce the R2 compared to its flagship R1 line of vehicles. Rivian removed half of the bill of materials (BOM) and developed a new streamlined manufacturing process with new die-casting methods, among other things.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，Rivian 专注于显著降低 R2 的生产成本，相较于其旗舰 R1 系列车型。Rivian 减少了一半的材料清单（BOM），并开发了一种新的精简制造流程，采用了新的压铸方法等。</p>
</div><p>Second, in part because of all those cost reductions and process improvements, the R2 starting price will be around $45,000, tens of thousands of dollars cheaper than its R1 predecessors. This will significantly open the door to a more mainstream U.S. consumer. 2026 is setting up to be a much more lucrative year for Rivian, and the U.S. EV market should be recovered just in time for the EV maker to ramp up production of the critically important R2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，部分由于所有这些成本降低和流程改进，R2 的起售价将约为 45,000 美元，比其 R1 前身便宜数万美元。这将显著打开更主流的美国消费者市场。2026 年将成为 Rivian 更具盈利潜力的一年，而美国电动车市场也应该在此时恢复，为电动车制造商加速生产至关重要的 R2 做好准备。</p>
</div><h2>Not that: VinFast Auto</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不买这个：VinFast Auto</h2>
</div><p><strong>VinFast Auto</strong>(VFS 0.30%) was an intriguing EV investment that had massive upside if it could expand from its home market of Vietnam, which it dominates, into the U.S. and Europe. Unfortunately, the EV swung for the fences with an expensive expansion plan, and struck out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>VinFast Auto</strong>（VFS 0.30%）曾是一个引人注目的电动车投资，如果能够从其主导的越南市场扩展到美国和欧洲，将有巨大的上行空间。不幸的是，该电动车制造商以昂贵的扩张计划试图大展拳脚，但最终失败了。</p>
</div><p>Now the company is dialing back its global ambitions, focusing on Asian markets, and seems in need of new capital after its founder and CEO Pham Nhat Vuong pledged another $1.5 billion to the automaker in exchange for R&amp;D assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，该公司正在收缩其全球雄心，专注于亚洲市场，并似乎在创始人兼首席执行官 Pham Nhat Vuong 承诺再向该汽车制造商提供 15 亿美元以换取研发资产后，急需新资本。</p>
</div><p>In part due to its global expansion attempt, the Vietnamese EV maker reported a net loss of $812 million for the second quarter, an increase of 15% from the prior year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>部分由于其全球扩张尝试，这家越南电动车制造商在第二季度报告了 8.12 亿美元的净亏损，比去年增加了 15%。</p>
</div><p>The numbers don't get better, either, as a large 172% surge in vehicle deliveries during the quarter drove a much more modest 91% gain in revenue, suggesting pricing weakness. Further, despite the large 172% surge in second-quarter deliveries, the company's first half total reached only 72,167 vehicles, a pace that will fall far short of its annual target of 200,000 units.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些数字也没有好转，第二季度车辆交付量大幅增长 172%，但收入仅增长 91%，显示出定价疲软。此外，尽管第二季度交付量大幅增长 172%，该公司的上半年总交付量仅为 72,167 辆，远低于其 20 万辆的年度目标。</p>
</div><p>VinFast has so far failed to break the code of U.S. or European markets, is bleeding cash, and might be limited to its Vietnam market, which wouldn't provide investors enough growth for the risk of owning the stock. On the flipside, while Rivian's stock has been stuck in the mud this year, next year is setting up to be a big one for the automaker, and the fourth quarter just might bring you a buying opportunity to start a small position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>VinFast 迄今未能打破美国或欧洲市场的代码，正在大量亏损，可能仅限于其越南市场，这对投资者来说并不足以承担持有该股票的风险。相反，尽管 Rivian 的股票今年表现不佳，但明年对该汽车制造商来说将是一个重要年份，而第四季度可能会为你提供一个买入机会，以开始建立一个小的持仓。</p>
</div>

买这个，不买那个：一个电动汽车制造商的风险信号正在闪烁