<p>在我们现代经济中，最有价值的商品不是石油、锂或人工智能芯片，而是时间。每一项重塑市场的技术（想想汽车、飞机或智能手机）都是通过为人们提供他们认为已经失去的几分钟或几小时而实现的。那些早期发现这些变化的投资者后来都变得富有。</p>
<p>我认为，这就是为什么 <strong>Joby Aviation</strong>（JOBY 2.60%）现在是如此引人注目的投资。Joby 是新兴电动垂直起降（eVTOL）市场的领跑者。它的飞机非常适合城市短途飞行，因为长跑道并不现实。它们还配备电动马达，使其比直升机更安静、污染更少，并且可以在一次充电的情况下运送乘客大约一百英里。</p>
<p>eVTOL 在公共交通方面的潜力难以夸大。任何在机场交通拥堵中缓慢前行的旅客，随着航班时间的临近，肯定会希望能够无压力地飞往航站楼。再加上其他重要的 eVTOL 应用——如医疗紧急情况和包裹递送——很容易理解为什么 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 认为到 2050 年 eVTOL 市场将增长到 9 万亿美元。</p>
<p>颠覆的潜力巨大。但在这个领域有很多参与者，包括竞争对手 <strong>Archer Aviation</strong>，那么为什么现在选择 Joby Aviation 作为合适的 eVTOL 股票呢？以下是我认为这只工业股票将在 2026 年超越市场的原因。</p>
<h2>2026 年：Joby Aviation 将乘客送上天空的年份？</h2>
<p>对于那些密切关注 Joby 故事的人来说，最大的障碍仍然是监管。该公司已经制造并飞行了飞机，但在通过联邦航空管理局（FAA）的认证流程之前，无法运载付费乘客。迄今为止，没有任何 eVTOL 公司获得商业飞行乘客的许可。</p>
<p>但 Joby 正在取得实质性进展。到第二季度末，管理层表示已完成认证流程第四阶段的约 70%，而 FAA 的进展也超过了 50%。这并不意味着它离将付费乘客送上空中更近 70%——它仍需通过第五阶段，并获得生产许可证。</p>
<p>但这确实意味着该公司已经完成了大量的技术工作，这些工作是测试原型和销售航班票之间的障碍。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE3NDQvam9ieS0yLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE3NDQvam9ieS0yLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>Joby eVTOL。图片来源：Joby Aviation。</p>
<p>与此同时，它在海外也在取得进展。在阿联酋的迪拜，Joby 在夏季完成了 21 次有人驾驶的测试飞行，气温接近 110 华氏度。该公司认为自己有望在 2026 年初完成迪拜国际机场的 “垂直港” 建设，并最近重申了在同一年内飞行商业乘客的承诺。</p>
<p>在美国，Joby 也在进行战略布局。8 月初，它与航空航天和国防专家 <strong>L3Harris Technologies</strong> 合作，开始开发用于国防目的的燃气涡轮混合动力飞机。预计将在今年秋季进行测试飞行，演示目标定在 2026 年。</p>
<p>所有这些都为 Joby 在 2026 年可能的突破奠定了基础。从一家尚未盈利的公司转变为能够在海外商业飞行的公司，可能会给股票带来适度的估值提升，尤其是如果 FAA 对美国航班的认证几乎到手的话。这可能是 Joby 最终证明其数十年论点的一年：它能够在现实条件下安全、大规模地运送客户。</p>
<h2>现金消耗可能会削弱 Joby 的能力</h2>
<p>尽管该公司正在取得 FAA 认证的进展，但仍未到达目标。尽管它与 <strong>丰田</strong> 和 <strong>达美航空</strong> 等蓝筹制造和航空巨头建立了战略合作关系，但如果不尽快开始盈利，其现金状况可能会成为问题。</p>
<p>该公司目前拥有约 9.91 亿美元的现金。以其当前的消耗速度（过去 12 个月约 5 亿美元）计算，如果没有更早的资金注入，它将在不到两年的时间内需要新的资金注入。</p>
<p>该公司的估值也很高。以约 110 亿美元的市值和大约 232,000 美元的全年收入预估，Joby 的市销率（P/S）倍数荒谬地高达数万倍。许多预期已经被计入价格；预计在任何好（或坏）消息的影响下，这只股票将会波动。</p>
<p>尽管如此，自 <strong>优步科技</strong> 以来，市场还没有看到真正颠覆性的工业股票，而 Joby 拥有改变我们在城市中出行方式的专业知识和支持。激进的成长型股票投资者对 Joby 有很多看好的地方。然而，更谨慎的投资者可能希望将资金投入其他股票或工业交易所交易基金（ETF）。</p>

JOBY

<p>Joby Aviation 被定位为电动垂直起降（eVTOL）市场的领先者，在城市交通领域具有显著的增长潜力。该公司正在推进 FAA 认证流程，目标是在 2026 年实现商业乘客飞行。然而，Joby 面临着一些挑战，包括高现金消耗率和较高的估值，这可能会影响其财务稳定性。尽管存在这些风险，激进的投资者可能会发现 Joby 是一个有吸引力的机会，而谨慎的投资者则可能考虑其他选择</p>

<p>In our modern economy, the most valuable commodity isn't oil, lithium, or AI chips. It's actually time. Every technology that has reshaped markets (think cars, planes, or smartphones) did so by giving people minutes or hours they thought were gone. Investors who spotted those shifts early got rich later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我们现代经济中，最有价值的商品不是石油、锂或人工智能芯片，而是时间。每一项重塑市场的技术（想想汽车、飞机或智能手机）都是通过为人们提供他们认为已经失去的几分钟或几小时而实现的。那些早期发现这些变化的投资者后来都变得富有。</p>
</div><p>That, I think, is why <strong>Joby Aviation</strong>(JOBY 2.60%) is such a compelling investment right now. Joby is a front-runner in the nascent electric verticle take-off and landing (eVTOL) market. Its aircraft are convenient for urban hops where long runways are unfeasible. They also have electric motors, which make them quieter and less polluting than helicopters, and they can taxi passengers for a hundred miles or so on a single charge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为，这就是为什么 <strong>Joby Aviation</strong>（JOBY 2.60%）现在是如此引人注目的投资。Joby 是新兴电动垂直起降（eVTOL）市场的领跑者。它的飞机非常适合城市短途飞行，因为长跑道并不现实。它们还配备电动马达，使其比直升机更安静、污染更少，并且可以在一次充电的情况下运送乘客大约一百英里。</p>
</div><p>It's hard to overstate eVTOLs' potential for public transportation. Any travelers who have crawled through traffic to the airport while their flight time ticks closer would surely love to fly stress-free to the terminal instead. Add in other important eVTOL applications -- like medical emergencies and package delivery -- and it's easy to understand why <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> believes the eVTOL market will grow to $9 trillion by 2050.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>eVTOL 在公共交通方面的潜力难以夸大。任何在机场交通拥堵中缓慢前行的旅客，随着航班时间的临近，肯定会希望能够无压力地飞往航站楼。再加上其他重要的 eVTOL 应用——如医疗紧急情况和包裹递送——很容易理解为什么 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 认为到 2050 年 eVTOL 市场将增长到 9 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The potential for disruption is huge. But with plenty of players in this space, including rival <strong>Archer Aviation</strong>, what makes Joby Aviation the right eVTOL stock to buy now? Here's why I think this industrial stock will crush the market in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>颠覆的潜力巨大。但在这个领域有很多参与者，包括竞争对手 <strong>Archer Aviation</strong>，那么为什么现在选择 Joby Aviation 作为合适的 eVTOL 股票呢？以下是我认为这只工业股票将在 2026 年超越市场的原因。</p>
</div><h2>2026: The year Joby Aviation puts passengers into the air?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2026 年：Joby Aviation 将乘客送上天空的年份？</h2>
</div><p>For those who have been watching the Joby story closely, the biggest hurdle is still regulatory. The company has built and flown aircraft, but it can't carry paying passengers until it clears the certification process of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). To date, no eVTOL company has been cleared to fly passengers commercially.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于那些密切关注 Joby 故事的人来说，最大的障碍仍然是监管。该公司已经制造并飞行了飞机，但在通过联邦航空管理局（FAA）的认证流程之前，无法运载付费乘客。迄今为止，没有任何 eVTOL 公司获得商业飞行乘客的许可。</p>
</div><p>But Joby is making real progress. By the end of the second quarter, management said it had completed about 70% of stage four of the certification process, while the FAA was more than 50% through with its portion. That doesn't mean it's 70% closer to putting paying passengers into the air -- it still needs to clear stage five, as well as obtain a Production Certificate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Joby 正在取得实质性进展。到第二季度末，管理层表示已完成认证流程第四阶段的约 70%，而 FAA 的进展也超过了 50%。这并不意味着它离将付费乘客送上空中更近 70%——它仍需通过第五阶段，并获得生产许可证。</p>
</div><p>But it does mean the company has cleared a large chunk of the technical work that stands between testing prototypes and selling tickets for flights.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这确实意味着该公司已经完成了大量的技术工作，这些工作是测试原型和销售航班票之间的障碍。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE3NDQvam9ieS0yLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831744%2Fjoby-2.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Joby eVTOLs. Image source: Joby Aviation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Joby eVTOL。图片来源：Joby Aviation。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, it's making progress overseas. In Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, Joby completed 21 piloted test flights this summer in temperatures that neared 110 degrees. The company sees itself on schedule to finish its &#34;vertiport&#34; at the Dubai International Airport in early 2026 and recently reaffirmed a commitment to fly commercial passengers in that same year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，它在海外也在取得进展。在阿联酋的迪拜，Joby 在夏季完成了 21 次有人驾驶的测试飞行，气温接近 110 华氏度。该公司认为自己有望在 2026 年初完成迪拜国际机场的 “垂直港” 建设，并最近重申了在同一年内飞行商业乘客的承诺。</p>
</div><p>In the U.S., Joby is also making strategic moves. Early in August, it partnered with aerospace and defense specialist <strong>L3Harris Technologies</strong> to start developing a gas turbine hybrid craft for defense purposes. Test flights are expected this fall, with demonstrations targeted for 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国，Joby 也在进行战略布局。8 月初，它与航空航天和国防专家 <strong>L3Harris Technologies</strong> 合作，开始开发用于国防目的的燃气涡轮混合动力飞机。预计将在今年秋季进行测试飞行，演示目标定在 2026 年。</p>
</div><p>All of this is setting Joby up for what looks to be a breakout 2026. Going from a pre-revenue company to one that's flying passengers commercially overseas could give the stock a modest valuation boost, especially if FAA certification for U.S. flights is nearly in its grip. It could be the year in which Joby finally proves a decades-long thesis: That it can fly customers safely, and at scale, under real-world conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些都为 Joby 在 2026 年可能的突破奠定了基础。从一家尚未盈利的公司转变为能够在海外商业飞行的公司，可能会给股票带来适度的估值提升，尤其是如果 FAA 对美国航班的认证几乎到手的话。这可能是 Joby 最终证明其数十年论点的一年：它能够在现实条件下安全、大规模地运送客户。</p>
</div><h2>Cash burn could clip Joby's wings</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现金消耗可能会削弱 Joby 的能力</h2>
</div><p>Although the company is making progress to get FAA certification, it's not there yet. And although it has strategic partnership with blue chip manufacturing and aviation giants -- like <strong>Toyota</strong> and <strong>Delta Airlines</strong> -- its cash situation could become a problem if it doesn't start making money soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管该公司正在取得 FAA 认证的进展，但仍未到达目标。尽管它与 <strong>丰田</strong> 和 <strong>达美航空</strong> 等蓝筹制造和航空巨头建立了战略合作关系，但如果不尽快开始盈利，其现金状况可能会成为问题。</p>
</div><p>The company currently sits on about $991 million in cash. At its current burn rate (about $500 million over the trailing 12 months), that gives it less than a couple of years before it will need an injection of new cash, if nothing comes sooner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司目前拥有约 9.91 亿美元的现金。以其当前的消耗速度（过去 12 个月约 5 亿美元）计算，如果没有更早的资金注入，它将在不到两年的时间内需要新的资金注入。</p>
</div><p>The company also has a rich valuation. With a market capitalization of about $11 billion, and a full-year revenue estimate of roughly $232,000, Joby's price-to-sales (P/S) multiple is absurdly in the tens of thousands. A lot of expectation is already priced in; expect this stock to be volatile on the heels of any good (or bad) news.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司的估值也很高。以约 110 亿美元的市值和大约 232,000 美元的全年收入预估，Joby 的市销率（P/S）倍数荒谬地高达数万倍。许多预期已经被计入价格；预计在任何好（或坏）消息的影响下，这只股票将会波动。</p>
</div><p>Still, the market hasn't seen a truly disruptive industrial stock since <strong>Uber Technologies,</strong> and Joby has the know-how and backing to change how we taxi around cities. Aggressive growth-stock investors have much to love about Joby. More-cautious investors, however, might want to put their money in a different stock or an industrial exchange-traded fund (ETF).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，自 <strong>优步科技</strong> 以来，市场还没有看到真正颠覆性的工业股票，而 Joby 拥有改变我们在城市中出行方式的专业知识和支持。激进的成长型股票投资者对 Joby 有很多看好的地方。然而，更谨慎的投资者可能希望将资金投入其他股票或工业交易所交易基金（ETF）。</p>
</div>

预测：Joby Aviation 将在 2026 年大幅领先市场。以下是原因