<p>作者：William Watts</p><p>核心 CPI 数据将是投资者寻找服务业通胀上行压力迹象时最为关注的：策略师们表示</p><p>通胀担忧尚未消散。</p><p>投资者可能不会对本周的通胀数据感到紧张，因为他们完全预期美联储将在劳动力市场明显放缓的情况下降息。但他们不应过于乐观。</p><p>周五，联邦基金期货交易员在非农就业数据显示 8 月份仅增加 22,000 个职位，并且对前几个月的下调修正将 6 月份的数据推入负值后，预计 9 月 17 日降息的概率为 100%。甚至还有 50 个基点的大幅降息可能性被提上日程，交易员们根据 CME FedWatch 工具预计这种大幅变动的概率为 11%。</p><p>纽约人寿投资公司的经济学家兼首席市场策略师 Lauren Goodwin 在接受 MarketWatch 电话采访时表示：&#34;我认为很难有一个 CPI 数字能够抵消就业报告……不过，我认为值得讨论通胀作为市场的宏观风险。&#34;</p><p>而芝加哥联邦储备银行行长 Austan Goolsbee，作为今年货币政策制定的联邦公开市场委员会的投票成员，周五表示他仍在考虑是否支持 9 月降息。他告诉彭博电视：&#34;我们也必须关注通胀方面。&#34;</p><p>Goolsbee 和其他人将在周三开始关注这一点，届时将于东部时间上午 8:30 发布 8 月份生产者价格指数。主要事件将在周四，届时将发布 8 月份消费者价格指数。</p><p>经济学家预计 CPI 将显示月度上涨 0.3%，同比增长 2.9%，高于 7 月份的 2.7%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分的核心 CPI 预计将上涨 0.3%，同比保持在 3.1%。</p><p>核心 CPI 数据的细节将是最重要的，BMO 资本市场的利率策略师 Ian Lyngen 和 Vail Hartman 在周五的报告中表示。</p><p>&#34;我们担心的风险是重复 7 月份的构成——软商品通胀与粘性的服务压力——这并不容易被忽视，&#34;他们写道。&#34;像 7 月份那样的单次、受航空票价影响的价格调整是容易被忽视的。然而，如果服务行业的再通胀出现广泛化，就不能不假设这将对委员会愿意发出未来降息信号的程度产生有限影响。&#34;</p><p>投资者本周还将再次关注就业市场，周二将发布一组称为《季度就业和工资普查》的修正数据。华尔街经济学家预计这将显示美国在 2024 年 4 月至 2025 年 3 月之间新增的就业岗位比之前报告的少 50 万个，但这一数字可能高达 100 万个。</p><p>投资者相信，如果 Goolsbee 反对 9 月降息，他将处于少数派。但通胀数据可能会影响对进一步降息的预期，因为预计与关税相关的价格压力尚未完全传导到零售层面。</p><p>在周五的就业数据发布后，股市开盘上涨，投资者预计到年底将总共降息 75 个基点，但随后回落，最终略微下跌。不过，对于标准普尔 500 指数 SPX 来说，这是一个成功的一周，周四上涨 0.3%，创下历史新高，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数 COMP 上涨 1.1%。道琼斯工业平均指数 DJIA 则落后，周跌幅为 0.3%。在周五的数据发布后，国债收益率下降，美国美元贬值。</p><p>阅读：标准普尔 500 指数必须保持在 6400 以上，才能继续上涨——在 8 月份的就业报告震动市场后，策略师表示。</p><p>股市多头寄希望于&#34;坏消息就是好消息&#34;的动态，即疲软的劳动数据和经济放缓的迹象为降息铺平道路，同时避免经济衰退。</p><p>与此同时，关于关税措施如何转化为价格压力的不确定性使得美联储在 2025 年保持观望，这让特朗普总统感到愤怒。</p><p>但上个月，在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔的演讲中，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔强调了对就业市场疲软的担忧，表明政策制定者正朝着在 9 月会议上降息的方向前进。</p><p>关于关税相关的进口商品价格上涨有多少传导到零售层面的估计将是未来几个月需要关注的关键，GlobalData TS Lombard 的首席经济学家 Freya Beamish 在周五的报告中表示。</p><p>&#34;如果传导率从目前的 10-20% 上升到 50%，将意味着个人消费支出 (PCE) 通胀超过 3%，&#34;Beamish 写道，指的是美联储偏好的通胀指标个人消费支出指数。美联储的通胀目标为 2%。</p><p>Beamish 预计就业市场将在秋季反弹，最近的&#34;模糊信号&#34;可能是对关税引发的经济放缓的反应，但不太可能将经济推入衰退。</p><p>而且，劳动力市场的复苏不需要太多，Beamish 表示，美联储仍然独立，可能会再次发出鹰派信号。&#34;目前，美联储倾向于关注由关税引起的价格水平变化。但更大的图景是通胀率的上升，&#34;她说。</p><p>纽约人寿的 Goodwin 不认为关税会导致个人消费支出 (PCE) 的急剧飙升，但指出持续的每月约 0.3% 的增长可能会对消费者和企业构成挑战，而更大幅度的激增风险是投资者应当关注的。</p><p>也就是说，Goodwin 认为 CPI 再次推高至 2022 年超过 9% 的同比高点的可能性很小。再次推高需要市场相信美联储已经改变了对通胀的&#34;心态&#34;。</p><p>虽然特朗普被广泛认为试图重塑美联储，以便允许比其他情况下更低的利率，但迄今为止市场的反应，预计 2025 年将有三次降息，2026 年还会有几次，表明投资者并不认为中央银行会实质性改变其政策。</p><p>不要错过：特朗普的 “学徒” 风格的美联储主席竞争现在开始。以下是您需要了解的内容。</p><p>“我认为市场对美联储的期望过高，但根据我们在经济周期中的位置，这并不是一个严重的定价错误，” 她说。</p><p>因此，即使市场预计的约 200 个基点的降息可能过于雄心勃勃，但 Goodwin 表示，偶尔的降息信号可能足以在未来六到九个月内限制美国股票的下行风险，因为投资者关注关税和其他政策变化如何影响经济。</p><p>-威廉·瓦茨</p><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>

纳斯达克 OMX 交易所

<p>华尔街预计美联储将在 9 月 17 日降息，原因是疲弱的劳动力市场和通胀数据。联邦基金期货显示降息的概率为 100%，同时也考虑到可能的 50 个基点的降息。关键的通胀指标，特别是核心消费者物价指数（CPI），将在本周发布，这将影响未来的降息预期。尽管在初期上涨后股票略有回落，但标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数在本周结束时表现积极。投资者希望疲软的劳动力数据能够促使降息，而不会引发经济衰退</p>

<p>By William Watts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：William Watts</p>
</div><p>Core CPI reading will matter most as investors look for signs of upward pressure on services inflation: strategists</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>核心 CPI 数据将是投资者寻找服务业通胀上行压力迹象时最为关注的：策略师们表示</p>
</div><p>Inflation fears haven't been put to bed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通胀担忧尚未消散。</p>
</div><p>Investors probably won't sweat this week's inflation data as they fully pencil in a Federal Reserve rate cut following clear signs the labor market is slowing down. They shouldn't take it too far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者可能不会对本周的通胀数据感到紧张，因为他们完全预期美联储将在劳动力市场明显放缓的情况下降息。但他们不应过于乐观。</p>
</div><p>Fed-funds futures traders on Friday priced in a 100% probability of a rate cut on Sept. 17 after nonfarm payrolls showed a rise of just 22,000 in August, accompanied by downside revisions to previous months that pushed the June reading into negative territory. Even the possibility of an outsize 50 basis point cut was put on the table, with traders pricing in a 11% probability of an outsize move, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五，联邦基金期货交易员在非农就业数据显示 8 月份仅增加 22,000 个职位，并且对前几个月的下调修正将 6 月份的数据推入负值后，预计 9 月 17 日降息的概率为 100%。甚至还有 50 个基点的大幅降息可能性被提上日程，交易员们根据 CME FedWatch 工具预计这种大幅变动的概率为 11%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I think it would be very difficult to have a CPI number that offsets the jobs report...That said, I think it's worth talking about inflation as a macro risk for markets,&#34; Lauren Goodwin, economist and chief market strategist at New York Life Investments, told MarketWatch in a phone interview.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约人寿投资公司的经济学家兼首席市场策略师 Lauren Goodwin 在接受 MarketWatch 电话采访时表示：&#34;我认为很难有一个 CPI 数字能够抵消就业报告……不过，我认为值得讨论通胀作为市场的宏观风险。&#34;</p>
</div><p>And for his part, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee, a voting member this year of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said Friday he was still on the fence about whether to back a September cut. &#34;We've got to look at the inflation side, too,&#34; he told Bloomberg Television.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而芝加哥联邦储备银行行长 Austan Goolsbee，作为今年货币政策制定的联邦公开市场委员会的投票成员，周五表示他仍在考虑是否支持 9 月降息。他告诉彭博电视：&#34;我们也必须关注通胀方面。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Goolsbee and everyone else will get that look beginning on Wednesday, with the release at 8:30 a.m. ET of the August producer-price index. The main event will be Thursday, with the release of the August consumer-price index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Goolsbee 和其他人将在周三开始关注这一点，届时将于东部时间上午 8:30 发布 8 月份生产者价格指数。主要事件将在周四，届时将发布 8 月份消费者价格指数。</p>
</div><p>Economists expect CPI to show a 0.3% monthly rise and to increase 2.9% year over year, up from 2.7% in July. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy components, is expected to show a rise of 0.3% with the year-over-year rate steady at 3.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家预计 CPI 将显示月度上涨 0.3%，同比增长 2.9%，高于 7 月份的 2.7%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分的核心 CPI 预计将上涨 0.3%，同比保持在 3.1%。</p>
</div><p>The details of the core CPI reading will matter most, said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman, rates strategists at BMO Capital Markets, in a Friday note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>核心 CPI 数据的细节将是最重要的，BMO 资本市场的利率策略师 Ian Lyngen 和 Vail Hartman 在周五的报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The risk we're worrying about is a repeat of July's composition - soft goods inflation with sticky services pressure - that isn't as easy to ignore,&#34; they wrote. &#34;A one-off, airfare-inspired price adjustment as was seen in July is easy to dismiss. However, if there is a broadening out of service sector reflation, one would be remiss not to assume it would have a limited impact on the extent to which the Committee will be willing to signal future rate cuts.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我们担心的风险是重复 7 月份的构成——软商品通胀与粘性的服务压力——这并不容易被忽视，&#34;他们写道。&#34;像 7 月份那样的单次、受航空票价影响的价格调整是容易被忽视的。然而，如果服务行业的再通胀出现广泛化，就不能不假设这将对委员会愿意发出未来降息信号的程度产生有限影响。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Investors will also get another look at the jobs market this week, with the release Tuesday of a set of revisions known as the Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages. Wall Street economists expect it to show the U.S. added 500,000 fewer jobs between April 2024 and March 2025 than previously reported - but the tally could be as high as 1 million fewer jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者本周还将再次关注就业市场，周二将发布一组称为《季度就业和工资普查》的修正数据。华尔街经济学家预计这将显示美国在 2024 年 4 月至 2025 年 3 月之间新增的就业岗位比之前报告的少 50 万个，但这一数字可能高达 100 万个。</p>
</div><p>Investors are confident that Goolsbee will be in the minority if he holds out against a September rate cut. But the inflation data may shape expectations for further cuts given expectations tariff-related price pressures have yet to fully feed through at the retail level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者相信，如果 Goolsbee 反对 9 月降息，他将处于少数派。但通胀数据可能会影响对进一步降息的预期，因为预计与关税相关的价格压力尚未完全传导到零售层面。</p>
</div><p>Stocks opened higher following the Friday jobs data as investors priced in a total of 75 basis points of cuts by year-end, but later pulled back to end the session slightly lower. Still, it was a winning week for the S&amp;P 500 SPX, which rose 0.3% and closed at a record on Thursday, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP, up 1.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA lagged behind, losing 0.3% for the week. Treasury yields dropped and the U.S. dollar sank following Friday's data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周五的就业数据发布后，股市开盘上涨，投资者预计到年底将总共降息 75 个基点，但随后回落，最终略微下跌。不过，对于标准普尔 500 指数 SPX 来说，这是一个成功的一周，周四上涨 0.3%，创下历史新高，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数 COMP 上涨 1.1%。道琼斯工业平均指数 DJIA 则落后，周跌幅为 0.3%。在周五的数据发布后，国债收益率下降，美国美元贬值。</p>
</div><p>Read: The S&amp;P 500 must stay above 6,400 for the rally to continue - after August jobs report rattles market, strategist says</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：标准普尔 500 指数必须保持在 6400 以上，才能继续上涨——在 8 月份的就业报告震动市场后，策略师表示。</p>
</div><p>Stock-market bulls are counting on a &#34;bad news is good news&#34; dynamic, in which soft labor data and signs of a weakening economy pave the way for rate cuts while averting a recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市多头寄希望于&#34;坏消息就是好消息&#34;的动态，即疲软的劳动数据和经济放缓的迹象为降息铺平道路，同时避免经济衰退。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, uncertainty about exactly how tariff measures will translate into price pressures is what has kept the Fed on the sidelines in 2025, much to the anger of President Trump.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，关于关税措施如何转化为价格压力的不确定性使得美联储在 2025 年保持观望，这让特朗普总统感到愤怒。</p>
</div><p>But last month, in his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chair Jerome Powell put the emphasis on concerns about a weakening jobs market, indicating policymakers were on the path to delivering a cut at the September meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但上个月，在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔的演讲中，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔强调了对就业市场疲软的担忧，表明政策制定者正朝着在 9 月会议上降息的方向前进。</p>
</div><p>Estimates of how much of the tariff-related increases in prices of imported goods are being passed through to the retail level will be a key thing to watch in the months ahead, said Freya Beamish, chief economist at GlobalData TS Lombard, in a Friday note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于关税相关的进口商品价格上涨有多少传导到零售层面的估计将是未来几个月需要关注的关键，GlobalData TS Lombard 的首席经济学家 Freya Beamish 在周五的报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;A 50% passthrough rate, up from 10-20% currently would imply PCE inflation above 3%,&#34; Beamish wrote, referring to the personal-consumption expenditures index, the Fed's favored inflation gauge. The Fed's inflation target is 2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;如果传导率从目前的 10-20% 上升到 50%，将意味着个人消费支出 (PCE) 通胀超过 3%，&#34;Beamish 写道，指的是美联储偏好的通胀指标个人消费支出指数。美联储的通胀目标为 2%。</p>
</div><p>Beamish expects the jobs market to see a rebound in the fall, with recent &#34;blurred signals&#34; likely a response to a tariff-induced slowdown that's dragging on the economy but unlikely to push it into recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Beamish 预计就业市场将在秋季反弹，最近的&#34;模糊信号&#34;可能是对关税引发的经济放缓的反应，但不太可能将经济推入衰退。</p>
</div><p>And it won't take much of a labor market recovery to prompt what Beamish says is a still independent Fed to start sounding hawkish again. &#34;For now, the Fed leans towards a level shift in prices, resulting from tariffs. But the bigger picture is an upshift in the rate of inflation,&#34; she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且，劳动力市场的复苏不需要太多，Beamish 表示，美联储仍然独立，可能会再次发出鹰派信号。&#34;目前，美联储倾向于关注由关税引起的价格水平变化。但更大的图景是通胀率的上升，&#34;她说。</p>
</div><p>New York Life's Goodwin doesn't expect tariffs to a drive a sharp spike in PCE, but noted that a persistent run of 0.3% or so monthly increases could present a challenge for consumers and businesses, while the risk of a bigger surge is one that should be acknowledged by investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约人寿的 Goodwin 不认为关税会导致个人消费支出 (PCE) 的急剧飙升，但指出持续的每月约 0.3% 的增长可能会对消费者和企业构成挑战，而更大幅度的激增风险是投资者应当关注的。</p>
</div><p>That said, Goodwin puts low odds on a &#34;double peak&#34; that would see CPI pushing back toward the year-over-year top above 9% it scored in 2022. A double peak would require the market coming to believe the Fed has changed its &#34;mindset&#34; toward inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，Goodwin 认为 CPI 再次推高至 2022 年超过 9% 的同比高点的可能性很小。再次推高需要市场相信美联储已经改变了对通胀的&#34;心态&#34;。</p>
</div><p>While Trump is widely viewed as attempting to reshape the Fed to allow for lower interest rates than would otherwise be the case, the market reaction thus far, pricing in three rate cuts in 2025 and a few more in 2026, indicates investors don't see the central bank materially changing its approach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然特朗普被广泛认为试图重塑美联储，以便允许比其他情况下更低的利率，但迄今为止市场的反应，预计 2025 年将有三次降息，2026 年还会有几次，表明投资者并不认为中央银行会实质性改变其政策。</p>
</div><p>Don't miss: Trump's 'Apprentice'-style competition for Fed chief starts now. Here's what to know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要错过：特朗普的 “学徒” 风格的美联储主席竞争现在开始。以下是您需要了解的内容。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I think the market is expecting too much from the Fed, but based on where we are in the economic cycle that's not an egregious mispricing,&#34; she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我认为市场对美联储的期望过高，但根据我们在经济周期中的位置，这并不是一个严重的定价错误，” 她说。</p>
</div><p>So even if the 200 basis points or so in rate cuts penciled in by the markets is likely too ambitious, the signaling of sporadic rate cuts will likely be enough to limit downside for U.S. stocks over the next six to nine months, Goodwin said, as investors monitor how tariffs and other policy changes work their way through the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，即使市场预计的约 200 个基点的降息可能过于雄心勃勃，但 Goodwin 表示，偶尔的降息信号可能足以在未来六到九个月内限制美国股票的下行风险，因为投资者关注关税和其他政策变化如何影响经济。</p>
</div><p>-William Watts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-威廉·瓦茨</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
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华尔街视 9 月降息为板上钉钉——CPI 通胀数据可能对未来的走势产生重大影响