<p>无论市场如何波动，关注沃伦·巴菲特的动向始终是个好主意。他在股票方面的理解和将其转化为投资成功的能力，随着时间的推移得到了证明。这位顶级投资者在 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 的掌舵近 60 年，在此期间推动了约 20% 的年复合回报率。这远远超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC -0.32%），后者的回报率为 10%。</p>
<p>在市场不确定性时期，向巴菲特寻求指导尤其有趣。现在可能正是这样的时刻——标准普尔 500 指数徘徊在历史高点附近，而我们正开始进入一个历来对投资者来说最糟糕的月份。巴菲特最近在做什么呢？实际上，这位投资巨头在过去近三年里，几乎每个季度都是股票的净卖出者。</p>
<p>事实上，他的操作导致 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 的现金储备达到了 3440 亿美元，这可能被视为对华尔街的警告，响亮而清晰。这是否意味着你应该在可能困难的九月份买入或避免股票？让我们来看看。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxNDQvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtNC10bWYtbWF5LTIwMTQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxNDQvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtNC10bWYtbWF5LTIwMTQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>九月份的股票</h2>
<p>首先，让我们谈谈九月份。历史上，这个月对投资者来说是最糟糕的，如果我们查看最近的数据，这一趋势得到了证实。在过去五年中，标准普尔 500 指数在九月份仅上涨过一次——去年上涨了 2%。其他九月份则导致了约 3% 到 9% 的损失。如果历史正确，我们可能正面临另一个艰难的月份，这可能会暂时降低你的投资组合价值。</p>
<p>现在，让我们继续讨论巴菲特的警告。这位亿万富翁从不参与大规模的市场运动。例如，如果大家都在购买人工智能（AI）股票，巴菲特就不会加入这个人群。他这样做并不是为了反其道而行，而是更倾向于关注价值股——那些今天可能被市场忽视，但具备长期增长潜力的优质公司。</p>
<p>因此，在最近几个季度，随着投资者涌向科技股和成长股，标准普尔 500 指数飙升，巴菲特则选择性地购买，并增加了他的现金储备，为未来的投资机会做好准备。巴菲特的警告本质上是：股票变得昂贵，因此市场可能随时回调。</p>
<p>我们可以通过标准普尔 500 指数的 Shiller CAPE 比率看到这一点，目前的水平仅在标准普尔 500 作为 500 家公司指数推出以来出现过两次。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5fa74bc65673e5a8c2a7fd0f1bbe5c81.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5fa74bc65673e5a8c2a7fd0f1bbe5c81.png"/></p>
<p>标准普尔 500 Shiller CAPE 比率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>巴菲特在这种投资环境中的做法</h2>
<p>Shiller CAPE 比率是一个特别可靠的指标，因为它衡量的是公司每股收益，经过通货膨胀调整，计算为 10 年期的平均值。目前的水平显示，整体股票价格昂贵，使得巴菲特在这种环境中采取谨慎态度。</p>
<p>考虑到这一切，在通常被认为是股市最糟糕的月份，你应该买入还是避免股票？像巴菲特一样，我们都应该密切关注估值，避免购买看起来被高估的股票——但这是一个在任何时候都应遵循的重要规则，无论整体市场是上涨还是下跌。（当然，可能会有一些例外。例如，激进的投资者可能会考虑那些交易价格高昂但长期前景光明的高成长科技公司的股票。）</p>
<h2>未来的机会？</h2>
<p>不过，这并不意味着我们应该完全避免股票，巴菲特也没有告诉我们停止投资。相反，他庞大的现金储备暗示目前机会可能有限，很多情况下是由于高估值。但好消息是，如果股票真的遵循历史趋势在九月份下跌，这可能会创造机会——因此九月份可能是长期投资者寻找股票的绝佳时机。</p>
<p>巴菲特对此观点的支持可以从他曾经说过的一句话中看出：“部署资本的最佳时机是当事情下跌时。”</p>
<p>毕竟，整体市场和优质股票随着时间的推移表明，它们不会永远处于低迷状态。因此，当你在低点买入并持有数年时，你可能会为自己创造一个巨大的胜利。</p>
<p>所有这些意味着，是的，你应该考虑在一年中最糟糕的月份买入股票——只要像巴菲特一样，确保价格合适。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

<p>沃伦·巴菲特最近的举动向投资者发出了谨慎的信号，因为他一直是股票的净卖家，在伯克希尔哈撒韦积累了 3440 亿美元的现金储备。历史上，九月通常是股票表现最差的月份，标准普尔 500 指数在大多数年份都出现亏损。巴菲特的策略侧重于价值股，避免高估股票，尽管市场趋势相反。虽然他建议保持谨慎，但他也暗示，如果股价下跌，九月可能为长期投资者提供买入机会</p>

<p>No matter what the market is doing, it's a great idea to keep an eye on the moves of Warren Buffett. He's proved his understanding of stocks over time and his ability to translate that into investing success. The top investor has sat at the helm of <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> for nearly 60 years, and over that time period has helped drive a compounded annual return of about 20%. That far outshines the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.32%), which delivered a 10% such return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论市场如何波动，关注沃伦·巴菲特的动向始终是个好主意。他在股票方面的理解和将其转化为投资成功的能力，随着时间的推移得到了证明。这位顶级投资者在 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 的掌舵近 60 年，在此期间推动了约 20% 的年复合回报率。这远远超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC -0.32%），后者的回报率为 10%。</p>
</div><p>And during times of market uncertainty, it's particularly interesting to look to Buffett for guidance. Now may be one of those times -- with the S&amp;P 500 lingering near record highs and as we start off a month that's historically been the worst for investors. What has Buffett been doing in recent times? Well, the investing giant has been a net seller of stocks quarter after quarter for almost three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在市场不确定性时期，向巴菲特寻求指导尤其有趣。现在可能正是这样的时刻——标准普尔 500 指数徘徊在历史高点附近，而我们正开始进入一个历来对投资者来说最糟糕的月份。巴菲特最近在做什么呢？实际上，这位投资巨头在过去近三年里，几乎每个季度都是股票的净卖出者。</p>
</div><p>In fact, his moves have resulted in a $344 billion cash pile at Berkshire Hathaway, and this may be seen as a warning to Wall Street that's ringing out loud and clear. Does this mean you should buy or avoid stocks during the potentially difficult month of September? Let's find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，他的操作导致 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong> 的现金储备达到了 3440 亿美元，这可能被视为对华尔街的警告，响亮而清晰。这是否意味着你应该在可能困难的九月份买入或避免股票？让我们来看看。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxNDQvd2FycmVuLWJ1ZmZldHQtNC10bWYtbWF5LTIwMTQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832144%2Fwarren-buffett-4-tmf-may-2014.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>Stocks in September</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>九月份的股票</h2>
</div><p>So, first, let's talk about the month of September. It's been the worst for investors over time, and this trend is confirmed if we look at recent data. Over the past five years, the S&amp;P 500 only advanced once in September -- by 2% last year. The other Septembers resulted in losses of about 3% to 9%. If history is correct, we may be heading for another tough month that could lower the value of your portfolio, at least temporarily.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，让我们谈谈九月份。历史上，这个月对投资者来说是最糟糕的，如果我们查看最近的数据，这一趋势得到了证实。在过去五年中，标准普尔 500 指数在九月份仅上涨过一次——去年上涨了 2%。其他九月份则导致了约 3% 到 9% 的损失。如果历史正确，我们可能正面临另一个艰难的月份，这可能会暂时降低你的投资组合价值。</p>
</div><p>Now, let's move on to Buffett's warning. The billionaire never joins in big market movements. For example, if everyone is buying artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, Buffett won't be part of this crowd. He doesn't do this just to be contrary. Instead, Buffett prefers focusing on value stocks -- quality companies that may be overlooked by the general market today but have what it takes to deliver growth over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，让我们继续讨论巴菲特的警告。这位亿万富翁从不参与大规模的市场运动。例如，如果大家都在购买人工智能（AI）股票，巴菲特就不会加入这个人群。他这样做并不是为了反其道而行，而是更倾向于关注价值股——那些今天可能被市场忽视，但具备长期增长潜力的优质公司。</p>
</div><p>So, in recent quarters, as investors flocked to technology and growth stocks and the S&amp;P 500 soared, Buffett bought selectively and grew his pile of cash, readying himself for future investment opportunities. Buffett's warning is essentially this: Stocks have become expensive, and as a result, the market could pull back at any moment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，在最近几个季度，随着投资者涌向科技股和成长股，标准普尔 500 指数飙升，巴菲特则选择性地购买，并增加了他的现金储备，为未来的投资机会做好准备。巴菲特的警告本质上是：股票变得昂贵，因此市场可能随时回调。</p>
</div><p>We can see this through the S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio, today at levels it's only reached twice before since the S&amp;P 500 launched as a 500-company index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们可以通过标准普尔 500 指数的 Shiller CAPE 比率看到这一点，目前的水平仅在标准普尔 500 作为 500 家公司指数推出以来出现过两次。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5fa74bc65673e5a8c2a7fd0f1bbe5c81.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5fa74bc65673e5a8c2a7fd0f1bbe5c81.png"/></p>
<p>S&amp;P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 Shiller CAPE 比率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>What Buffett does in this investing environment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特在这种投资环境中的做法</h2>
</div><p>The Shiller CAPE ratio is a particularly sound metric because it measures a company's earnings per share, adjusted for inflation, over a 10-year period. And the current level shows that stocks, overall, are expensive, making this the sort of environment that Buffett approaches with caution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Shiller CAPE 比率是一个特别可靠的指标，因为它衡量的是公司每股收益，经过通货膨胀调整，计算为 10 年期的平均值。目前的水平显示，整体股票价格昂贵，使得巴菲特在这种环境中采取谨慎态度。</p>
</div><p>Considering all of this, should you buy or avoid stocks during what generally is the worst month for the stock market? Like Buffett, we all should pay close attention to valuation and avoid buying stocks that look overvalued -- but this is an important rule to invest by at any time, whether the overall market is rising or falling. (Of course, there may be some exceptions. Aggressive investors might, for example, consider shares of a high-growth tech company that's trading for a steep valuation if the full long-term picture looks bright.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这一切，在通常被认为是股市最糟糕的月份，你应该买入还是避免股票？像巴菲特一样，我们都应该密切关注估值，避免购买看起来被高估的股票——但这是一个在任何时候都应遵循的重要规则，无论整体市场是上涨还是下跌。（当然，可能会有一些例外。例如，激进的投资者可能会考虑那些交易价格高昂但长期前景光明的高成长科技公司的股票。）</p>
</div><h2>Opportunities on the horizon?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>未来的机会？</h2>
</div><p>Still, this doesn't mean we should avoid stocks altogether, and Buffett isn't telling us to stop investing either. Instead, his huge cash pile implies opportunities may be limited at the moment, in many cases due to high valuations. But here's the good news. If stocks actually follow the historical trend and decline in September, this may create opportunities -- so September may be a fantastic time for the bargain-hunting long-term investor to go shopping for stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，这并不意味着我们应该完全避免股票，巴菲特也没有告诉我们停止投资。相反，他庞大的现金储备暗示目前机会可能有限，很多情况下是由于高估值。但好消息是，如果股票真的遵循历史趋势在九月份下跌，这可能会创造机会——因此九月份可能是长期投资者寻找股票的绝佳时机。</p>
</div><p>Buffett backs up this idea as we can see in a comment he once made: &#34;The best chance to deploy capital is when things are going down.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特对此观点的支持可以从他曾经说过的一句话中看出：“部署资本的最佳时机是当事情下跌时。”</p>
</div><p>After all, the overall market and quality stocks have shown over time that they don't remain in the doldrums forever. So, when you buy at a low point and hold on for a period of years, you could set yourself up for a big win.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毕竟，整体市场和优质股票随着时间的推移表明，它们不会永远处于低迷状态。因此，当你在低点买入并持有数年时，你可能会为自己创造一个巨大的胜利。</p>
</div><p>All of this means that, yes, you should consider buying stocks during the worst month of the year -- as long as, like Buffett, you make sure the price is right.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些意味着，是的，你应该考虑在一年中最糟糕的月份买入股票——只要像巴菲特一样，确保价格合适。</p>
</div>

Warren Buffett's $344 Billion Warning to Wall Street is Ringing Out Loud and Clear. Should You Buy or Avoid Stocks During the Market's Historically Worst Month?

- 沃伦·巴菲特在市场不确定时的投资策略引人关注。  
- 他在过去三年中持续减持股票，现金储备达 3440 亿美元。  
- 九月历史上对投资者不利，但可能为长期投资者提供低价买入机会。

沃伦·巴菲特向华尔街发出的 3440 亿美元警告响彻云霄。在市场历史上表现最差的月份，你应该买入股票还是避开股票？