<p><strong>阿里巴巴集团</strong>(BABA 3.48%) 最为人知的是中国的电子商务先锋，其平台如淘宝和天猫塑造了数亿消费者的购物习惯。但在最近几个季度，该公司正在大力拓展一个新领域：快速商业，即在 30 分钟到 1 小时内快速配送食品和日常必需品。</p>
<p>这是一个雄心勃勃的战略，反映了中国城市市场消费者期望的变化。但这也给投资者提出了一个重要问题：阿里巴巴的快速商业推进是一个聪明的战略举措，还是一个对盈利能力造成负担的昂贵干扰？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxMzUvbG9naXN0aWMtMi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxMzUvbG9naXN0aWMtMi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>为什么快速商业对阿里巴巴很重要</h2>
<p>最近，投资者对阿里巴巴最大的担忧之一是其决定全力投入与 <strong>美团</strong> 和 <strong>京东</strong> 的即时商业竞争。他们担心这一战略只是一个匆忙扩展电子商务业务的尝试。</p>
<p>推出淘宝即时商业的理由很简单。消费者行为正在改变，尤其是在中国的大城市。年轻消费者尤其希望新鲜的食品、零食和日常必需品能够立即送达，而不是等待一两天。这种需求推动了美团的崛起，美团在食品配送和本地服务领域占据主导地位，而 <strong>拼多多</strong> 的多多买菜业务也在迅速扩张。</p>
<p>如果不做出回应，阿里巴巴就有失去在推动日常参与度的类别中的相关性的风险。这就是为什么它一直在投资像盒马这样的线上线下混合超市，以及它的社区团购服务淘菜菜。这两者都融入了快速商业模式，为消费者提供速度和便利，同时将他们留在阿里巴巴的生态系统中。</p>
<p>对阿里巴巴而言，这不仅仅是关于食品。这关乎保护公司的用户基础。如果消费者每周多次登录淘宝购买必需品，他们更有可能继续购买电子产品、服装和更高利润的商品。换句话说，快速商业既是防御也是增长。</p>
<h2>盈利能力问题</h2>
<p>缺点是快速商业成本高昂。与依赖集中仓库和批量配送的传统电子商务不同，快速商业需要本地化的配送中心、密集的物流网络和频繁的小额订单。</p>
<p>在 2025 年 6 月的季度（2026 财年第一季度），阿里巴巴的管理层承认，尽管快速商业推动了参与度，但仍然对盈利能力造成了拖累。换句话说，中国的商业收入增长了 10%，但调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）下降了 21%。</p>
<p>与美团相比，盈利能力的下降可能看起来 “微小”——美团在最新季度的运营利润下降了 98%——但这是因为阿里巴巴拥有一个极具盈利能力的电子商务业务，补贴了其快速商业追求中的损失。</p>
<p>盈利能力挑战并非阿里巴巴独有。全球范围内，从美国的 GoPuff 到欧洲的 Getir，快速商业参与者都在努力使经济模式可行。低订单价值、高配送成本和客户价格敏感性使得盈利能力的规模化成为一项艰巨的任务。</p>
<p>阿里巴巴面临的风险是，它最终可能被锁定在与美团和京东的昂贵军备竞赛中——三者都在争夺一个没有人能够持续盈利的市场份额。</p>
<h2>为什么投资者不应完全忽视它</h2>
<p>尽管如此，阿里巴巴拥有一些纯粹快速商业参与者所缺乏的独特竞争优势：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>菜鸟物流：</strong> 阿里巴巴已经运营着中国最先进的物流网络之一，使其能够比小型竞争对手更高效地支持快速配送。</li>
<li><strong>饿了么：</strong> 阿里巴巴拥有饿了么，这是中国第二大食品配送平台，仅次于美团，因此食品配送与即时商业之间存在巨大的协同效应。</li>
<li><strong>生态系统协同：</strong> 与独立参与者不同，阿里巴巴可以通过电子商务、广告和支付宝等多个业务线来实现参与度的货币化。这使得每个快速商业客户在长期内更具价值，从而证明了收购成本的合理性。</li>
</ul>
<h2>这对投资者意味着什么？</h2>
<p>阿里巴巴的快速商业战略是一把双刃剑。一方面，它在短期内对盈利能力造成压力。另一方面，它在竞争对手逐渐崛起时巩固了阿里巴巴的竞争地位。</p>
<p>对于长期投资者而言，正确看待快速商业的方式可能是将其视为一种战略防御举措，而不是今天的利润驱动因素。如果阿里巴巴能够将其与物流、人工智能和生态系统优势紧密整合，这一赌注最终可能会得到回报。</p>
<p>展望未来，投资者应关注两个指标。首先是用户增长和参与度。其次是亏损缩小。在至少一个（如果不是两个）指标上出现积极发展将标志着这一战略的成功。</p>

阿里巴巴

阿里巴巴-W

2 倍做多阿里巴巴 ETF - KraneShares

BABO

2 倍做多 BABA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>阿里巴巴集团正在进军快速商业，目标是在 30 分钟到 1 小时内实现超快速的杂货配送。这一策略响应了中国城市消费者需求的变化，但也引发了对盈利能力的担忧。尽管快速商业推动了用户参与，但由于需要本地化配送和密集的物流，这一模式成本高昂。尽管面临盈利挑战，阿里巴巴成熟的物流网络和生态系统协同效应可能提供竞争优势。投资者应将这一策略视为一种防御性举措，关注用户增长和缩小亏损作为成功的关键指标</p>

<p><strong>Alibaba Group</strong>(BABA 3.48%) is best known as China's e-commerce pioneer, with platforms like Taobao and Tmall shaping the shopping habits of hundreds of millions of consumers. But in recent quarters, the company has been pushing hard into a new frontier: quick commerce, or ultra-fast delivery of groceries and daily essentials within 30 minutes to an hour.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>阿里巴巴集团</strong>(BABA 3.48%) 最为人知的是中国的电子商务先锋，其平台如淘宝和天猫塑造了数亿消费者的购物习惯。但在最近几个季度，该公司正在大力拓展一个新领域：快速商业，即在 30 分钟到 1 小时内快速配送食品和日常必需品。</p>
</div><p>It's an ambitious strategy that reflects shifting consumer expectations in China's urban markets. But it also raises an important question for investors: Is Alibaba's quick commerce push a brilliant strategic move, or is it a costly distraction that weighs on profitability?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个雄心勃勃的战略，反映了中国城市市场消费者期望的变化。但这也给投资者提出了一个重要问题：阿里巴巴的快速商业推进是一个聪明的战略举措，还是一个对盈利能力造成负担的昂贵干扰？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxMzUvbG9naXN0aWMtMi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832135%2Flogistic-2.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why quick commerce matters for Alibaba</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么快速商业对阿里巴巴很重要</h2>
</div><p>One of the biggest issues investors have about Alibaba lately is its decision to go all in for the instant commerce war with <strong>Meituan</strong> and <strong>JD.com</strong>. Their concern is that the strategy is merely a hasty attempt to expand the e-commerce business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，投资者对阿里巴巴最大的担忧之一是其决定全力投入与 <strong>美团</strong> 和 <strong>京东</strong> 的即时商业竞争。他们担心这一战略只是一个匆忙扩展电子商务业务的尝试。</p>
</div><p>The rationale behind launching Taobao Instant Commerce is simple. Consumer behavior is changing, especially in China's largest cities. Younger shoppers, in particular, want fresh groceries, snacks, and daily necessities delivered instantly rather than waiting a day or two. That demand has fueled the rise of Meituan, which dominates the food delivery and local services space, and <strong>Pinduoduo</strong>, whose Duo Duo Grocery business has been rapidly scaling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推出淘宝即时商业的理由很简单。消费者行为正在改变，尤其是在中国的大城市。年轻消费者尤其希望新鲜的食品、零食和日常必需品能够立即送达，而不是等待一两天。这种需求推动了美团的崛起，美团在食品配送和本地服务领域占据主导地位，而 <strong>拼多多</strong> 的多多买菜业务也在迅速扩张。</p>
</div><p>Without a response, Alibaba risked losing relevance in categories that drive daily engagement. That's why it has been investing in platforms like Freshippo, its hybrid online-offline grocery chain, and Taocaicai, its community group-buying service. Both feed into the quick commerce model, offering consumers speed and convenience while keeping them in Alibaba's ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果不做出回应，阿里巴巴就有失去在推动日常参与度的类别中的相关性的风险。这就是为什么它一直在投资像盒马这样的线上线下混合超市，以及它的社区团购服务淘菜菜。这两者都融入了快速商业模式，为消费者提供速度和便利，同时将他们留在阿里巴巴的生态系统中。</p>
</div><p>For Alibaba, this isn't just about groceries. It's about protecting the company's user base. If consumers log into Taobao multiple times a week for essentials, they're more likely to stick around for electronics, apparel, and higher-margin purchases. In other words, quick commerce is as much about defense as it is about growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对阿里巴巴而言，这不仅仅是关于食品。这关乎保护公司的用户基础。如果消费者每周多次登录淘宝购买必需品，他们更有可能继续购买电子产品、服装和更高利润的商品。换句话说，快速商业既是防御也是增长。</p>
</div><h2>The profitability problem</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>盈利能力问题</h2>
</div><p>The downside is that quick commerce is expensive. Unlike traditional e-commerce, which relies on centralized warehouses and bulk deliveries, quick commerce requires localized distribution hubs, dense logistics networks, and frequent small-basket orders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>缺点是快速商业成本高昂。与依赖集中仓库和批量配送的传统电子商务不同，快速商业需要本地化的配送中心、密集的物流网络和频繁的小额订单。</p>
</div><p>In its June 2025 quarter (Q1 fiscal 2026), Alibaba's management acknowledged that while quick commerce is driving engagement, it remains a drag on profitability. To put it into perspective, China's commerce revenue grew by 10%, yet adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) fell 21%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年 6 月的季度（2026 财年第一季度），阿里巴巴的管理层承认，尽管快速商业推动了参与度，但仍然对盈利能力造成了拖累。换句话说，中国的商业收入增长了 10%，但调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）下降了 21%。</p>
</div><p>The decline in profitability may look &#34;small&#34; compared to Meituan -- operating profit fell 98% in the latest quarter -- but that's because Alibaba has a remarkably profitable e-commerce business, which subsidizes the losses in its quick commerce pursuit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与美团相比，盈利能力的下降可能看起来 “微小”——美团在最新季度的运营利润下降了 98%——但这是因为阿里巴巴拥有一个极具盈利能力的电子商务业务，补贴了其快速商业追求中的损失。</p>
</div><p>The profitability challenge is not unique to Alibaba. Globally, quick commerce players from GoPuff in the U.S. to Getir in Europe have struggled to make the economics work. Low order values, high delivery costs, and customer price sensitivity make scaling profitability a steep climb.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>盈利能力挑战并非阿里巴巴独有。全球范围内，从美国的 GoPuff 到欧洲的 Getir，快速商业参与者都在努力使经济模式可行。低订单价值、高配送成本和客户价格敏感性使得盈利能力的规模化成为一项艰巨的任务。</p>
</div><p>The risk for Alibaba is that it ends up locked in a costly arms race with Meituan and JD.com -- with all three fighting for market share in a sector where no one is sustainably profitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴面临的风险是，它最终可能被锁定在与美团和京东的昂贵军备竞赛中——三者都在争夺一个没有人能够持续盈利的市场份额。</p>
</div><h2>Why investors shouldn't dismiss it altogether</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么投资者不应完全忽视它</h2>
</div><p>Still, Alibaba has some distinct competitive advantages that pure-play quick commerce players lack:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，阿里巴巴拥有一些纯粹快速商业参与者所缺乏的独特竞争优势：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Cainiao logistics:</strong> Alibaba already runs one of China's most advanced logistics networks, giving it the scale and infrastructure to support fast delivery more efficiently than smaller rivals.</li>
<li><strong>Eleme:</strong> Alibaba owns Eleme, the second-largest food delivery platform in China, behind just Meituan, so there are enormous synergies between food delivery and instant commerce.</li>
<li><strong>Ecosystem synergies:</strong> Unlike standalone players, Alibaba can monetize engagement across multiple business lines, from e-commerce to advertising to payments via Alipay. That makes each quick commerce customer more valuable in the long run, justifying the acquisition cost.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>菜鸟物流：</strong> 阿里巴巴已经运营着中国最先进的物流网络之一，使其能够比小型竞争对手更高效地支持快速配送。</li>
<li><strong>饿了么：</strong> 阿里巴巴拥有饿了么，这是中国第二大食品配送平台，仅次于美团，因此食品配送与即时商业之间存在巨大的协同效应。</li>
<li><strong>生态系统协同：</strong> 与独立参与者不同，阿里巴巴可以通过电子商务、广告和支付宝等多个业务线来实现参与度的货币化。这使得每个快速商业客户在长期内更具价值，从而证明了收购成本的合理性。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>What does it mean for investors?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对投资者意味着什么？</h2>
</div><p>Alibaba's quick commerce strategy is a double-edged sword. On one side, it strains profitability in the short term. On the other hand, it shores up Alibaba's competitive position when rivals are gaining ground.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴的快速商业战略是一把双刃剑。一方面，它在短期内对盈利能力造成压力。另一方面，它在竞争对手逐渐崛起时巩固了阿里巴巴的竞争地位。</p>
</div><p>For long-term investors, the right way to view quick commerce may be as a strategic defensive play rather than a profit driver today. If Alibaba can integrate it tightly with its logistics, AI, and ecosystem advantages, the bet could eventually pay off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于长期投资者而言，正确看待快速商业的方式可能是将其视为一种战略防御举措，而不是今天的利润驱动因素。如果阿里巴巴能够将其与物流、人工智能和生态系统优势紧密整合，这一赌注最终可能会得到回报。</p>
</div><p>Going forward, investors should monitor two metrics. First, user growth and engagement. Second, loss narrowing. A positive development in at least one (if not both) metrics will signal the success of this strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，投资者应关注两个指标。首先是用户增长和参与度。其次是亏损缩小。在至少一个（如果不是两个）指标上出现积极发展将标志着这一战略的成功。</p>
</div>

Is Alibaba's Quick Commerce Push the Right Strategy for the Company?

- 阿里巴巴正在全力推进快速商业，满足消费者对即时配送的需求。  
- 尽管快速商业提升了用户参与度，但仍对盈利能力造成压力。  
- 投资者应关注用户增长和损失缩小，以评估该战略的成功。

阿里巴巴推进快速商业化是否是公司的正确战略？