<p>日元走弱，因石破辞职日经指数上涨 1%</p>
<p>石破辞职带来更多财政不确定性</p>
<p>股票上涨，交易员预计九月降息</p>
<p>本周美国通胀数据也备受关注</p>
<p>作者：Ankur Banerjee</p>
<p>新加坡，9 月 8 日（路透社）- 周一，股票上涨，美元波动，因糟糕的美国就业数据为本月降息奠定了基础，而日元下跌，投资者因首相石破茂辞职而对日本的未来感到不确定。</p>
<p>黄金价格接近历史高位，而美国国债收益率在数据显示美国经济在八月份创造的就业岗位远低于预期后，跌至五个月低点，市场开始考虑大幅降息的可能性。</p>
<p>上周，全球各地长期债券收益率的上升引起了投资者的关注，他们担心从英国、法国到日本等国的财政状况。</p>
<p>在日本石破于周日辞职后，这些担忧可能会再次出现，导致世界第四大经济体的政治不确定性，并使日本银行的政策路径变得模糊。</p>
<p>投资者将关注谁将接替石破，担心像批评日本银行加息的自民党资深成员高市早苗这样的宽松财政和货币政策的支持者可能会接任。</p>
<p>日本超级长期国债（JGB）的收益率已经徘徊在历史高位附近，而日本日经指数最近从上个月的历史高位回落。</p>
<p>“市场将围绕这对财政政策、通胀和日本银行的反应意味着什么进行框架分析，” Capital.com 的高级金融市场分析师凯尔·罗达表示。</p>
<p>“我怀疑这会稍微削弱日元，并可能实际提振股票。但后者首先依赖于一些领导层的确定性，因此最初的走势可能是日元略微走弱。”</p>
<p>日元（JPY=EBS）全面下跌，最后报 148.39 美元，跌幅为 0.6%，而日经指数（.N225）在早盘交易中上涨 1%。</p>
<h3>降息即将到来</h3>
<p>本月晚些时候美联储降息的前景支撑了其他地方的股市，同时对国债收益率和美元施加压力。</p>
<p>标准普尔 500 期货（EScv1）在周一的早盘亚洲时段上涨 0.25%，此前周五的波动交易中，该指数创下历史新高，但随后收盘下跌 0.3%。纳斯达克期货（NQc1）上涨 0.25%。</p>
<p>本周投资者的关注将集中在周四的美国通胀报告上，以评估可能导致价格上涨的风险，这可能会抑制对更大幅度降息的热情。</p>
<p>“虽然大多数投资者仍然预计美联储在九月会议上将降息 25 个基点，但我们预计市场的关注将转向更大幅度的降息呼声，目前 50 个基点的降息正在考虑之中，” Validus 风险管理北美全球资本市场负责人哈伦·提拉克表示。</p>
<p>交易员已经完全定价本月晚些时候降息 25 个基点，并预计有 8% 的可能性进行大幅 50 个基点的降息，CME FedWatch 工具显示。他们预计到今年年底将放宽 68 个基点。</p>
<p>“美联储有充分的理由降息 25 个基点……在六个月内再降两次，” K2 资产管理研究主管乔治·布布拉斯表示。</p>
<p>“美国现金利率显著高于其他发达市场，考虑到美国经济的韧性和强劲，现阶段需要降低现金利率。美联储进一步降息的评论将是支持性的，否则股市将会走弱。”</p>
<p>在外汇市场，欧元（EUR=EBS）小幅回落至 1.1708 美元，此前周五上涨了 0.6%，而英镑（GBP=D3）在周五上涨 0.5% 后最后报 1.3489 美元。</p>
<p>投资者的关注还将集中在法国，首相弗朗索瓦·巴伊鲁周一面临信任投票，预计将失利，使欧元区第二大经济体陷入更深的政治危机。</p>
<p>在商品市场，黄金价格为每盎司 3588 美元，距离 3600 美元的里程碑仅一步之遥。今年黄金价格上涨了 37%，而 2024 年上涨了 27%。</p>

<p>股票因美国劳动力数据疲软而对降息的乐观情绪上涨，而在日本首相石破辞职后，日元走弱，财政不确定性加剧。日经指数上涨了 1%，黄金价格维持在接近历史高位。投资者关注日本可能的领导层变动和即将公布的美国通胀数据，市场预计美联储本月将降息 25 个基点。由于欧洲持续的政治担忧，欧元和英镑对美元也出现了轻微下跌</p>

<p>Yen weakens, Nikkei rises 1% after Ishiba resignation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元走弱，因石破辞职日经指数上涨 1%</p>
</div><p>Ishiba resignation bring more fiscal uncertainty</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>石破辞职带来更多财政不确定性</p>
</div><p>Stocks rise as traders pencil in rate cut in September</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票上涨，交易员预计九月降息</p>
</div><p>US inflation data this week also in focus</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周美国通胀数据也备受关注</p>
</div><p>By Ankur Banerjee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Ankur Banerjee</p>
</div><p>SINGAPORE, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Stocks rose and the dollar wobbled on Monday after dismal U.S. labour data sealed the case for rate cuts this month, while the yen fell as investors girded for uncertainty in Japan following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新加坡，9 月 8 日（路透社）- 周一，股票上涨，美元波动，因糟糕的美国就业数据为本月降息奠定了基础，而日元下跌，投资者因首相石破茂辞职而对日本的未来感到不确定。</p>
</div><p>Gold prices held near a record high while U.S. Treasury yields hit five-month lows after data showed the world’s largest economy created far fewer jobs than expected in August, with markets factoring in chances of a jumbo rate cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金价格接近历史高位，而美国国债收益率在数据显示美国经济在八月份创造的就业岗位远低于预期后，跌至五个月低点，市场开始考虑大幅降息的可能性。</p>
</div><p>Much of the focus last week was on elevated long-end bond yields across the globe as investors fretted about the state of various countries’ finances from Britain and France to Japan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，全球各地长期债券收益率的上升引起了投资者的关注，他们担心从英国、法国到日本等国的财政状况。</p>
</div><p>Some of those worries could return after Japan’s Ishiba resigned on Sunday, leading to political uncertainty in the world’s fourth-largest economy and clouding the policy path for the Bank of Japan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日本石破于周日辞职后，这些担忧可能会再次出现，导致世界第四大经济体的政治不确定性，并使日本银行的政策路径变得模糊。</p>
</div><p>The spotlight will be on who replaces Ishiba, with investors fretting that an advocate of looser fiscal and monetary policy, such as Liberal Democratic Party veteran Sanae Takaichi, who has criticised the BOJ’s interest rate hikes, could take the helm next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者将关注谁将接替石破，担心像批评日本银行加息的自民党资深成员高市早苗这样的宽松财政和货币政策的支持者可能会接任。</p>
</div><p>Yields on super-long Japanese government bonds (JGBs) have already been hovering near record highs, while Japan’s Nikkei share gauge has recently slipped from last month’s record high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本超级长期国债（JGB）的收益率已经徘徊在历史高位附近，而日本日经指数最近从上个月的历史高位回落。</p>
</div><p>“The markets are going to be framing this around what it means for fiscal policy, inflation and the BOJ’s response,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“市场将围绕这对财政政策、通胀和日本银行的反应意味着什么进行框架分析，” Capital.com 的高级金融市场分析师凯尔·罗达表示。</p>
</div><p>“I suspect this will weaken the yen a bit and could actually boost stocks. But the latter relies on some leadership certainty first, so the initial move could be a marginally weaker yen.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我怀疑这会稍微削弱日元，并可能实际提振股票。但后者首先依赖于一些领导层的确定性，因此最初的走势可能是日元略微走弱。”</p>
</div><p>The yen (JPY=EBS) fell across the board and was last 0.6% lower at 148.39 per dollar, while the Nikkei (.N225) rose 1% in early trading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元（JPY=EBS）全面下跌，最后报 148.39 美元，跌幅为 0.6%，而日经指数（.N225）在早盘交易中上涨 1%。</p>
</div><h3>RATE CUTS ARE HERE</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>降息即将到来</h3>
</div><p>The prospect of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month propped up stock markets elsewhere while weighing on the Treasury yields and the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月晚些时候美联储降息的前景支撑了其他地方的股市，同时对国债收益率和美元施加压力。</p>
</div><p>S&amp;P 500 futures (EScv1) pointed 0.25% higher in early Asian hours on Monday after a volatile session on Friday where the index hit a record high but then closed 0.3% lower. Nasdaq futures (NQc1) advanced 0.25%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 期货（EScv1）在周一的早盘亚洲时段上涨 0.25%，此前周五的波动交易中，该指数创下历史新高，但随后收盘下跌 0.3%。纳斯达克期货（NQc1）上涨 0.25%。</p>
</div><p>Investor attention this week will be on the U.S. inflation report on Thursday to gauge the risk of rising prices that could help temper some of the enthusiasm for a larger rate cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周投资者的关注将集中在周四的美国通胀报告上，以评估可能导致价格上涨的风险，这可能会抑制对更大幅度降息的热情。</p>
</div><p>“While most investors remain aligned on a 25 basis point cut at the September Fed meeting, we expect market focus to shift toward calls for a larger move, with a 50bp cut now in play,” said Harun Thilak, head of global capital markets North America at Validus Risk Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“虽然大多数投资者仍然预计美联储在九月会议上将降息 25 个基点，但我们预计市场的关注将转向更大幅度的降息呼声，目前 50 个基点的降息正在考虑之中，” Validus 风险管理北美全球资本市场负责人哈伦·提拉克表示。</p>
</div><p>Traders have fully priced in a 25 bp cut later this month with 8% chance of a jumbo 50 bp rate cut, the CME FedWatch tool showed. They are anticipating 68 basis points of easing by the end of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易员已经完全定价本月晚些时候降息 25 个基点，并预计有 8% 的可能性进行大幅 50 个基点的降息，CME FedWatch 工具显示。他们预计到今年年底将放宽 68 个基点。</p>
</div><p>“The Fed has more than enough reasons and will cut by 25bps … with another two within six-months,” said George Boubouras, head of research at K2 Asset Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美联储有充分的理由降息 25 个基点……在六个月内再降两次，” K2 资产管理研究主管乔治·布布拉斯表示。</p>
</div><p>“U.S. cash rates are notably higher than other developed markets (and) given the resilient and robust U.S. economy, lower cash rates are now required. Fed commentary of further rate cuts will be supportive, without this equity markets will be weaker.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美国现金利率显著高于其他发达市场，考虑到美国经济的韧性和强劲，现阶段需要降低现金利率。美联储进一步降息的评论将是支持性的，否则股市将会走弱。”</p>
</div><p>In the currency market, the euro (EUR=EBS) eased a bit to $1.1708 after surging 0.6% on Friday, while sterling (GBP=D3) last fetched $1.3489 after a 0.5% rise on Friday. (FRX/)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在外汇市场，欧元（EUR=EBS）小幅回落至 1.1708 美元，此前周五上涨了 0.6%，而英镑（GBP=D3）在周五上涨 0.5% 后最后报 1.3489 美元。</p>
</div><p>Investor attention will also be on France where Prime Minister Francois Bayrou faces a confidence vote on Monday, which he is expected to lose, plunging the euro zone’s second-largest economy deeper into political crisis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者的关注还将集中在法国，首相弗朗索瓦·巴伊鲁周一面临信任投票，预计将失利，使欧元区第二大经济体陷入更深的政治危机。</p>
</div><p>In commodities, gold prices were at $3,588 per ounce, just shy of the $3,600 milestone. Gold is up 37% this year after rising 27% in 2024. (GOL/)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在商品市场，黄金价格为每盎司 3588 美元，距离 3600 美元的里程碑仅一步之遥。今年黄金价格上涨了 37%，而 2024 年上涨了 27%。</p>
</div>

全球市场——股市因对降息的乐观情绪而上涨，石破茂辞职后日元大幅下跌