<p>很少有科技巨头经历如此剧烈的命运逆转，<strong>阿里巴巴集团</strong>(BABA 3.48%) 曾是中国互联网经济的骄傲和全球电子商务的领导者，但在过去四年中，阿里巴巴一直在应对监管打压、竞争加剧和消费者需求疲软。2020 年其股价曾达到 300 美元以上，而如今股价不到当时的一半，这反映了真实的商业困境和投资者信心的减弱。</p><p>但在 2026 财年第一季度（2026 年 Q1）的 6 月季度业绩中，该公司显示出稳定的迹象。尽管阿里巴巴仍面临挑战，但在云计算、国际商务和重组努力方面的进展表明，最糟糕的时刻可能终于过去。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/809bd899ea1c289340aa60df0225a637?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/809bd899ea1c289340aa60df0225a637"/></figure><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p><h2 id="trq1zr90ej">一场完美的挑战风暴</h2><p>阿里巴巴的衰退并不是单一问题造成的，而是多种因素的汇聚。</p><ul><li><strong>监管冲击：</strong> 中国政府在 2020 年突然停止了蚂蚁集团的 IPO，并对阿里巴巴处以创纪录的 28 亿美元反垄断罚款。关于金融科技、数据和平台主导地位的规则根本改变了阿里巴巴的运营方式。</li><li><strong>国内经济放缓：</strong> 消费者信心疲软、高青年失业率和不均衡的疫情后复苏对零售支出造成了压力。对于一家以电子商务为主的公司来说，这无疑是一个痛苦的拖累。</li><li><strong>竞争侵蚀：</strong> <strong>拼多多</strong> 和抖音（中国的 TikTok）逐渐蚕食了阿里巴巴曾经主导的零售生态系统。激进的折扣和创新的形式压缩了利润率和客户忠诚度。</li><li><strong>地缘政治风险：</strong> 中美紧张关系引发了退市的阴影，而对先进芯片的出口限制威胁到了阿里巴巴在人工智能（AI）和云计算方面的雄心。外国投资者的情绪恶化，压缩了估值。</li></ul><p>结果是多年的增长乏力、利润率恶化，以及许多人担心已成为价值陷阱的股票。</p><h2 id="5nfltg08">但绿芽正在萌发</h2><p>尽管大多数投资者可能早已放弃，但阿里巴巴 2026 年 Q1 的业绩表明，该公司正在积极复苏。</p><p>首先是最明显的，即其收入的稳定。在 2026 年 Q1，尽管收入同比仅增长 2%，但实际增长（在调整业务处置后）接近 10%。这一表现得益于核心电商业务的稳定增长和云计算部门的加速增长。</p><p>阿里巴巴中国的电商业务交出了令人满意的 10% 的收入增长，得益于客户管理收入的增长。特别是快速消费品方面的举措，如淘宝即时配送，尽管仍未盈利，但使公司能够获得更大的市场关注。在 8 月的前三周，淘宝应用的月活跃用户同比增长了 25%。</p><p>虽然阿里巴巴需要稳定其电商业务——毕竟这是公司的核心业务——但真正的亮点是云业务的稳健扩张。在 2026 年 Q1，云收入同比激增 26%，得益于对 AI 基础设施和服务的强劲需求。更好的是，AI 产品收入已经连续八个季度以三位数的速度增长。多年来，云业务表现不佳，但如今看起来已成为一个真正的增长引擎。</p><p>此外，阿里巴巴的重组努力仍在继续。它将淘宝、天猫、饿了么和飞猪合并为一个商务部门，旨在统一客户接触点、减少重复和增强专注，特别是在即时配送等竞争激烈的领域。它还将报告的业务部门减少到四个领域：国内电商集团、国际数字商务集团、云智能集团和其他业务。这些努力可能会导致更好的专注和长期执行的改善。</p><p>总体而言，阿里巴巴在其扭转努力中展现了真实的进展。</p><h2 id="7mi1k5tkh">前方的道路仍然有障碍</h2><p>然而，投资者不应将进展与完全的扭转混淆。快速消费品虽然在战略上重要，但仍然对盈利能力造成压力。食品和杂货配送的价格战意味着巨额补贴和微薄的利润率。国内消费依然疲软，限制了零售业务的复苏速度。地缘政治风险始终存在：美国的芯片限制可能会减缓阿里巴巴的 AI 发展路线，即使它正在开发自己的处理器。</p><p>此外，来自拼多多和抖音的竞争并不会消失。这两个平台在吸引年轻消费者方面展现了显著的能力，迫使阿里巴巴不断创新以保持竞争力。</p><h2 id="idu3rdpes">这对长期投资者意味着什么？</h2><p>那么，最糟糕的时刻终于过去了吗？答案是肯定的，但有一些警告。</p><p>从积极的一面来看，云计算和 AI 正在成为真正的增长驱动力。经过多年的衰退，国内电商正在稳定下来。管理层正在以更清晰的重点重组业务。</p><p>尽管如此，股票仍然面临与监管、地缘政治和激烈竞争相关的风险。但在今天的估值下，这些风险可能已经被充分考虑。</p><p>投资者应密切关注阿里巴巴在未来几个季度的表现，特别是在其电商业务的进展和云业务增长的可持续性方面。如果阿里巴巴能够在这两个领域保持近期的表现，投资者将更有信心持有（或购买）该股票。</p>

阿里巴巴

阿里巴巴-W

2 倍做多阿里巴巴 ETF - KraneShares

BABO

2 倍做多 BABA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>阿里巴巴集团在过去四年中面临了重大挑战，包括监管打压和竞争加剧，导致股价急剧下跌。然而，最近发布的 2026 年第一季度业绩显示出稳定的迹象，调整后的收入增长了 10%，云收入增长了 26%。尽管在盈利能力和竞争方面仍面临挑战，阿里巴巴的重组努力和云计算的增长暗示了潜在的转机。投资者应密切关注阿里巴巴的表现，特别是在电子商务和云可持续性方面，同时要注意监管和地缘政治风险</p>

<p>Few tech giants have faced as sharp a reversal of fortune as <strong>Alibaba Group</strong>(BABA 3.48%). Once the pride of China's internet economy and a global e-commerce leader, Alibaba has spent the last four years navigating regulatory crackdowns, intensifying competition, and sluggish consumer demand. At its peak in 2020, shares traded above $300. Today, they trade at less than half that, a reflection of both real business headwinds and diminished investor confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很少有科技巨头经历如此剧烈的命运逆转，<strong>阿里巴巴集团</strong>(BABA 3.48%) 曾是中国互联网经济的骄傲和全球电子商务的领导者，但在过去四年中，阿里巴巴一直在应对监管打压、竞争加剧和消费者需求疲软。2020 年其股价曾达到 300 美元以上，而如今股价不到当时的一半，这反映了真实的商业困境和投资者信心的减弱。</p>
</div><p>But with its June quarter results for fiscal 2026 (Q1 2026), the company is showing signs of stabilization. While Alibaba is not free of challenges, progress in cloud computing, international commerce, and restructuring efforts suggests the worst may finally be in the rearview mirror.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在 2026 财年第一季度（2026 年 Q1）的 6 月季度业绩中，该公司显示出稳定的迹象。尽管阿里巴巴仍面临挑战，但在云计算、国际商务和重组努力方面的进展表明，最糟糕的时刻可能终于过去。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxMzMvbG9naXN0aWMtMi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832133%2Flogistic-2.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A perfect storm of challenges</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一场完美的挑战风暴</h2>
</div><p>Alibaba's decline wasn't about a single problem -- it was a convergence of many.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴的衰退并不是单一问题造成的，而是多种因素的汇聚。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Regulatory shocks:</strong> China's government abruptly halted Ant Group's IPO in 2020 and later hit Alibaba with a record $2.8 billion antitrust fine. Rules around fintech, data, and platform dominance fundamentally changed how Alibaba could operate.</li>
<li><strong>Domestic slowdown:</strong> Weak consumer confidence, high youth unemployment, and uneven post-pandemic recovery weighed on retail spending. For a company whose bread and butter is e-commerce, this was a painful drag.</li>
<li><strong>Competitive encroachment:</strong> <strong>Pinduoduo</strong> and Douyin (China's TikTok) steadily chipped away at Alibaba's once-dominant retail ecosystem. Aggressive discounting and innovative formats pressured margins and loyalty.</li>
<li><strong>Geopolitical risks:</strong> U.S.-China tensions raised the specter of delisting, while export restrictions on advanced chips threatened Alibaba's artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud ambitions. Foreign investor sentiment soured, compressing valuations.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>监管冲击：</strong> 中国政府在 2020 年突然停止了蚂蚁集团的 IPO，并对阿里巴巴处以创纪录的 28 亿美元反垄断罚款。关于金融科技、数据和平台主导地位的规则根本改变了阿里巴巴的运营方式。</li>
<li><strong>国内经济放缓：</strong> 消费者信心疲软、高青年失业率和不均衡的疫情后复苏对零售支出造成了压力。对于一家以电子商务为主的公司来说，这无疑是一个痛苦的拖累。</li>
<li><strong>竞争侵蚀：</strong> <strong>拼多多</strong> 和抖音（中国的 TikTok）逐渐蚕食了阿里巴巴曾经主导的零售生态系统。激进的折扣和创新的形式压缩了利润率和客户忠诚度。</li>
<li><strong>地缘政治风险：</strong> 中美紧张关系引发了退市的阴影，而对先进芯片的出口限制威胁到了阿里巴巴在人工智能（AI）和云计算方面的雄心。外国投资者的情绪恶化，压缩了估值。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The result was years of sluggish growth, deteriorating margins, and a stock many feared had become a value trap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结果是多年的增长乏力、利润率恶化，以及许多人担心已成为价值陷阱的股票。</p>
</div><h2>But green shoots are emerging</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>但绿芽正在萌发</h2>
</div><p>While most investors would have given up by now, Alibaba's Q1 2026 results suggest that the company is making a positive comeback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管大多数投资者可能早已放弃，但阿里巴巴 2026 年 Q1 的业绩表明，该公司正在积极复苏。</p>
</div><p>Let's start with the most obvious, which is the stabilization of its revenue. In Q1 2026, while revenue was up just 2% year over year, actual growth (after adjusting for business disposals) was closer to 10%. This performance was a result of stable growth in the core-commerce business and the accelerating growth in the cloud computing segment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先是最明显的，即其收入的稳定。在 2026 年 Q1，尽管收入同比仅增长 2%，但实际增长（在调整业务处置后）接近 10%。这一表现得益于核心电商业务的稳定增长和云计算部门的加速增长。</p>
</div><p>The elephant in the room, Alibaba China's e-commerce business delivered a commendable 10% increase in revenue, thanks to growth in customer management revenue. In particular, initiatives in quick commerce, such as Taobao Instant Delivery, while still unprofitable, have enabled the company to capture greater mind share. There was a 25% year-over-year increase in monthly active consumers on the Taobao app in the first three weeks of August.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴中国的电商业务交出了令人满意的 10% 的收入增长，得益于客户管理收入的增长。特别是快速消费品方面的举措，如淘宝即时配送，尽管仍未盈利，但使公司能够获得更大的市场关注。在 8 月的前三周，淘宝应用的月活跃用户同比增长了 25%。</p>
</div><p>While Alibaba needs to stabilize its e-commerce business -- given that it's the bread and butter of the company -- the real highlight is the solid expansion of the cloud business. In Q1 2026, cloud revenue surged 26% year over year, powered by soaring demand for AI infrastructure and services. Better still, AI product revenue has now grown at triple-digit rates for eight consecutive quarters. For years, the cloud has been under-delivering. Today, it looks like a legitimate growth engine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然阿里巴巴需要稳定其电商业务——毕竟这是公司的核心业务——但真正的亮点是云业务的稳健扩张。在 2026 年 Q1，云收入同比激增 26%，得益于对 AI 基础设施和服务的强劲需求。更好的是，AI 产品收入已经连续八个季度以三位数的速度增长。多年来，云业务表现不佳，但如今看起来已成为一个真正的增长引擎。</p>
</div><p>Besides, Alibaba's restructuring efforts to streamline the business continue. It combined Taobao, Tmall, Ele.me, and Fliggy into one commerce division, aiming to unify customer touchpoints, reduce duplication, and sharpen focus -- especially in competitive battlegrounds like instant delivery. It also reduced its reporting segments into four areas: China e-commerce group, international digital commerce group, cloud intelligence group, and all others. These efforts will likely lead to better focus and improved long-term execution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，阿里巴巴的重组努力仍在继续。它将淘宝、天猫、饿了么和飞猪合并为一个商务部门，旨在统一客户接触点、减少重复和增强专注，特别是在即时配送等竞争激烈的领域。它还将报告的业务部门减少到四个领域：国内电商集团、国际数字商务集团、云智能集团和其他业务。这些努力可能会导致更好的专注和长期执行的改善。</p>
</div><p>Overall, Alibaba demonstrated real progress in its turnaround efforts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，阿里巴巴在其扭转努力中展现了真实的进展。</p>
</div><h2>The road ahead still has obstacles</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>前方的道路仍然有障碍</h2>
</div><p>Still, investors shouldn't confuse progress with a complete turnaround. Quick commerce, while strategically important, continues to weigh on profitability. Price wars in food and grocery delivery mean heavy subsidies and thin margins. Domestic consumption remains soft, limiting how fast the retail business can rebound. And geopolitical risk is ever-present: U.S. chip restrictions could slow Alibaba's AI roadmap, even as it develops its own processors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资者不应将进展与完全的扭转混淆。快速消费品虽然在战略上重要，但仍然对盈利能力造成压力。食品和杂货配送的价格战意味着巨额补贴和微薄的利润率。国内消费依然疲软，限制了零售业务的复苏速度。地缘政治风险始终存在：美国的芯片限制可能会减缓阿里巴巴的 AI 发展路线，即使它正在开发自己的处理器。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, competition from Pinduoduo and Douyin is not going away. Both platforms have demonstrated a remarkable ability to capture younger consumers, compelling Alibaba to innovate to keep pace continually.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，来自拼多多和抖音的竞争并不会消失。这两个平台在吸引年轻消费者方面展现了显著的能力，迫使阿里巴巴不断创新以保持竞争力。</p>
</div><h2>What does it mean for long-term investors?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对长期投资者意味着什么？</h2>
</div><p>So, is the worst finally over? The answer is yes, but with caveats.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，最糟糕的时刻终于过去了吗？答案是肯定的，但有一些警告。</p>
</div><p>On the positive side, cloud and AI are becoming genuine growth drivers. Domestic e-commerce is stabilizing after years of attrition. And management is restructuring the business with a clearer focus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从积极的一面来看，云计算和 AI 正在成为真正的增长驱动力。经过多年的衰退，国内电商正在稳定下来。管理层正在以更清晰的重点重组业务。</p>
</div><p>Still, the stock carries risks tied to regulation, geopolitics, and fierce competition. But at today's valuation, those risks may be more than priced in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，股票仍然面临与监管、地缘政治和激烈竞争相关的风险。但在今天的估值下，这些风险可能已经被充分考虑。</p>
</div><p>Investors should closely track Alibaba's performance in the coming quarters, especially on the progress of its e-commerce business and the sustainability of its cloud business's growth. If Alibaba can sustain its recent performance across both segments, investors will have more conviction in holding on (or buying) the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应密切关注阿里巴巴在未来几个季度的表现，特别是在其电商业务的进展和云业务增长的可持续性方面。如果阿里巴巴能够在这两个领域保持近期的表现，投资者将更有信心持有（或购买）该股票。</p>
</div>

Is the Worst Finally Over for Alibaba?

- 阿里巴巴面临监管、竞争和消费疲软等多重挑战，股价大幅下跌。  
- 2026 财年第一季度，阿里巴巴云业务增长 26%，电商业务也有所回暖。  
- 尽管前景改善，投资者仍需关注监管和竞争风险。

阿里巴巴的最糟糕时期是否终于结束了？