<p>华尔街的一个时代即将结束。在不到四个月的时间里，<strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A -1.26%）（BRK.B -1.40%）的沃伦·巴菲特将退休，结束他长达六十年的首席执行官生涯。在他掌舵的 60 年间，他的公司 A 类股票（BRK.A）实现了约 6,140,000% 的累计收益，这与基准 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC -0.32%）在同一时间段内约 43,300% 的总回报（包括股息）相比，表现相当优异。</p>
<p>这位奥马哈的先知的超额收益使他成为华尔街最受关注的资金管理者，一些投资者借助他的成功获得了可观的长期收益。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxMTQvYnVmZmV0dDktdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxMTQvYnVmZmV0dDktdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<p>但除了市场超额回报之外，投资者对巴菲特的另一个欣赏之处在于他愿意分享自己的想法以及他在投资优秀企业时所寻找的公司特质。无论是伯克希尔的年度股东信还是公司的年度会议，巴菲特都不陌生于提供智慧的金句。</p>
<p>虽然关于沃伦·巴菲特投资理念的书籍层出不穷，但伯克希尔最新的股东信中四个不祥的字完美概括了他为何如此出色的投资者，并解释了他最近的投资活动为何向华尔街发出了明确的警告。</p>
<h2>沃伦·巴菲特用四个字向华尔街发出 3440 亿美元的警告</h2>
<p>投资者可能对奥马哈先知的一些核心原则有所了解。例如，巴菲特倾向于投资于具有可持续竞争优势、强大管理团队和丰厚资本回报计划的公司。他还将投资视为多年的或数十年的承诺，目前伯克希尔的投资组合中有八只股票被视为 “无限期” 持有。</p>
<p>但巴菲特曾提供的可能是最好的投资建议，完美概括了股市的承诺与风险，这在伯克希尔哈撒韦最新的年度股东信中得以体现。在讨论公司资金分配时，巴菲特宣称：“通常，没有什么看起来令人信服。”</p>
<p>从本质上讲，伯克希尔的亿万富翁老板是一位坚定的价值投资者。尽管有一些不成文的 “巴菲特规则” 有时会被打破，例如通过套利机会进行短期投资，但伯克希尔的首席执行官不会在估值不合理的情况下购买股票。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>巴菲特指标达到 215%，创历史上最昂贵的股市估值 👀 pic.twitter.com/kjnbGN67be</p>
<p>-- Barchart (@Barchart) 2025 年 8 月 29 日</p>
</blockquote>
<p>目前，股票估值历史上处于高位。考虑到估值是主观的，亲切地被称为 “巴菲特指标” 的这一指标最近达到了历史最高点。该估值指标将美国所有上市公司的累计市值相加，并将该数字除以美国国内生产总值（GDP）。</p>
<p>市值与 GDP 的比率，自 1970 年以来的回测平均接近美国 GDP 的 85%，在 8 月底超过了 214%。换句话说，巴菲特和他的团队发现价值的难度极大。</p>
<p>自 2022 年 10 月起，奥马哈先知开始出售的股票数量超过购买的数量。这一净卖出活动已经持续了 11 个连续季度（2022 年 10 月 1 日–2025 年 6 月 30 日），净股票销售总额达到 1774 亿美元。与此同时，伯克希尔哈撒韦的现金储备，包括现金、现金等价物和美国国债，已膨胀至近创纪录的 3441 亿美元。</p>
<p>尽管手握 3440 亿美元的资本，巴菲特更倾向于成为股票的净卖方，甚至不再购买自己公司的股票。这是华尔街从伯克希尔的亿万首席执行官那里得到的最直接的警告。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxMTQvc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWNhbmRsZXN0aWNrLWNoYXJ0LWNpcmNsZS1idXktZGlwLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="486" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxMTQvc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWNhbmRsZXN0aWNrLWNoYXJ0LWNpcmNsZS1idXktZGlwLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>耐心在股市中获得丰厚回报</h2>
<p>尽管巴菲特的不祥建议——“通常，没有什么看起来令人信服”——完美解释了他为何在历史上高价的股市中更多地作为卖方而非买方，但这也为伯克希尔的老板如何在六十年间实现超额回报提供了背景。</p>
<p>从根本上讲，沃伦·巴菲特深知美国经济和股市在长期内都在扩张。尽管经济和股市周期中衰退和股市修正是正常且不可避免的，但乐观情绪在长时间内占据主导地位。这意味着耐心等待价格失调显现出来是一种成功且经过时间考验的策略——如果伯克希尔 A 类股票近 6,140,000% 的总回报没有说明这一点的话。</p>
<p>在 2011 年 8 月，金融危机最严重的时候不久，奥马哈先知在 <strong>美国银行</strong>（BAC -1.29%）的优先股上进行了 50 亿美元的投资。虽然美国银行并不急需现金，但在持续的诉讼和仍不确定的贷款组合中，它不会拒绝增强资产负债表的机会。</p>
<p>当巴菲特最初进行这项投资时，美国银行的普通股交易价格比其账面价值低 62%。但在 2017 年夏天，伯克希尔行使其认购权，以每股 7.14 美元的价格购买了 7 亿股美国银行股票。这一 2011 年 8 月的价格失调立即为伯克希尔带来了 120 亿美元（未实现）的利润，且这一利润至今仍在不断增长。</p>
<p>伯克希尔的亿万富翁首席执行官在 2016 年初也意识到了 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.16%) 的价格错位。这家备受喜爱的 iPhone 制造商在九年前的交易价格仅为未来一年收益的 10 到 15 倍，这对于一家年均持续增长高个位数到低双位数的公司来说是一个便宜的估值。自巴菲特首次进入该头寸以来，苹果股票已经上涨了大约十倍，人工智能的热潮和公司快速增长的服务部门为此做出了很大贡献。</p>
<p>尽管等待沃伦·巴菲特和他的顶级顾问部署伯克希尔哈撒韦的宝藏可能令人沮丧，但耐心在几十年中获得了丰厚的回报。当未来价格错位变得明显时，巴菲特或他的继任者格雷格·阿贝尔将准备好迅速出击。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

南方两倍做多伯克希尔

<p>沃伦·巴菲特，伯克希尔哈撒韦的首席执行官，计划在 60 年后退休。在此期间，他实现了惊人的 614 万% 的 A 类股票回报。他最近对华尔街的警告，概括为 “通常，没有什么看起来令人信服”，反映了他在历史高位股票估值下的谨慎态度。巴菲特已经连续 11 个季度净卖出股票，总销售额达到 1774 亿美元，同时持有 3440 亿美元的现金。这一策略强调耐心和价值投资，这是他长期成功的关键</p>

<p>It's the end of an era on Wall Street. In less than four months, <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>'s (BRK.A -1.26%) (BRK.B -1.40%) Warren Buffett will retire from the CEO role he's held for six decades. During his 60 years at the helm, he's overseen a roughly 6,140,000% cumulative gain in his company's Class A shares (BRK.A), which compares quite favorably to the roughly 43,300% total return, including dividends, delivered by the benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.32%) over the same timeline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街的一个时代即将结束。在不到四个月的时间里，<strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A -1.26%）（BRK.B -1.40%）的沃伦·巴菲特将退休，结束他长达六十年的首席执行官生涯。在他掌舵的 60 年间，他的公司 A 类股票（BRK.A）实现了约 6,140,000% 的累计收益，这与基准 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC -0.32%）在同一时间段内约 43,300% 的总回报（包括股息）相比，表现相当优异。</p>
</div><p>The Oracle of Omaha's outperformance has made him the most-followed money manager on Wall Street, with some investors riding his coattails to substantial long-term gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这位奥马哈的先知的超额收益使他成为华尔街最受关注的资金管理者，一些投资者借助他的成功获得了可观的长期收益。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxMTQvYnVmZmV0dDktdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832114%2Fbuffett9-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔哈撒韦首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><p>But the other factor -- aside from market-crushing returns -- investors have come to appreciate about Buffett is his willingness to share his thoughts and the company traits he looks for when taking stakes in wonderful businesses. Whether it's Berkshire's annual shareholder letter or the company's yearly meeting, Buffett is no stranger to offering up nuggets of wisdom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但除了市场超额回报之外，投资者对巴菲特的另一个欣赏之处在于他愿意分享自己的想法以及他在投资优秀企业时所寻找的公司特质。无论是伯克希尔的年度股东信还是公司的年度会议，巴菲特都不陌生于提供智慧的金句。</p>
</div><p>While books have been written about Warren Buffett's investment ideals, four ominous words from Berkshire's latest shareholder letter perfectly encapsulate why he's such a phenomenal investor, and explain why his recent investment activity sends a clear warning to Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然关于沃伦·巴菲特投资理念的书籍层出不穷，但伯克希尔最新的股东信中四个不祥的字完美概括了他为何如此出色的投资者，并解释了他最近的投资活动为何向华尔街发出了明确的警告。</p>
</div><h2>Warren Buffett sends a $344 billion warning to Wall Street using just four words</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>沃伦·巴菲特用四个字向华尔街发出 3440 亿美元的警告</h2>
</div><p>Investors are likely aware of some of the Oracle of Omaha's core principles. For example, Buffett prefers to buy stakes in companies with sustainable competitive advantages, strong management teams, and hearty capital return programs. He also looks at investments as multiyear or multidecade commitments, with eight stocks in Berkshire's portfolio currently considered &#34;indefinite&#34; holdings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者可能对奥马哈先知的一些核心原则有所了解。例如，巴菲特倾向于投资于具有可持续竞争优势、强大管理团队和丰厚资本回报计划的公司。他还将投资视为多年的或数十年的承诺，目前伯克希尔的投资组合中有八只股票被视为 “无限期” 持有。</p>
</div><p>But possibly the best investment advice Buffett has ever offered, which perfectly encapsulates the promise and peril of the stock market, was penned in Berkshire Hathaway's latest annual shareholder letter. While discussing where his company has money allocated, Buffett proclaimed, &#34;Often, nothing looks compelling.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但巴菲特曾提供的可能是最好的投资建议，完美概括了股市的承诺与风险，这在伯克希尔哈撒韦最新的年度股东信中得以体现。在讨论公司资金分配时，巴菲特宣称：“通常，没有什么看起来令人信服。”</p>
</div><p>At his core, Berkshire's billionaire boss is an unwavering value investor. Though there are some unwritten &#34;Buffett rules&#34; that sometimes get broken, such as investing for the short-term via an arbitrage opportunity, Berkshire's head honcho isn't willing to buy a stock if its valuation doesn't make sense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从本质上讲，伯克希尔的亿万富翁老板是一位坚定的价值投资者。尽管有一些不成文的 “巴菲特规则” 有时会被打破，例如通过套利机会进行短期投资，但伯克希尔的首席执行官不会在估值不合理的情况下购买股票。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Warren Buffett Indicator hits 215%, the most expensive stock market valuation in history 👀 pic.twitter.com/kjnbGN67be</p>
<p>-- Barchart (@Barchart) August 29, 2025</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>巴菲特指标达到 215%，创历史上最昂贵的股市估值 👀 pic.twitter.com/kjnbGN67be</p>
<p>-- Barchart (@Barchart) 2025 年 8 月 29 日</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>At the moment, stock valuations are historically expensive. Keeping in mind that valuation is subjective, the affably dubbed &#34;Buffett Indicator&#34; recently hit an all-time high. This valuation measure adds up the cumulative market cap of all public companies in the U.S. and divides this figure by U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，股票估值历史上处于高位。考虑到估值是主观的，亲切地被称为 “巴菲特指标” 的这一指标最近达到了历史最高点。该估值指标将美国所有上市公司的累计市值相加，并将该数字除以美国国内生产总值（GDP）。</p>
</div><p>The market cap-to-GDP ratio, which has averaged closer to 85% of U.S. GDP when back-tested to 1970, surpassed 214% in late August. In other words, finding value has been exceedingly difficult for Buffett and his team.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值与 GDP 的比率，自 1970 年以来的回测平均接近美国 GDP 的 85%，在 8 月底超过了 214%。换句话说，巴菲特和他的团队发现价值的难度极大。</p>
</div><p>Beginning in October 2022, the Oracle of Omaha began selling more stock than he was purchasing. This net-selling activity has been ongoing for 11 consecutive quarters (Oct. 1, 2022 – June 30, 2025), totaling $177.4 billion in net stock sales. All the while, Berkshire Hathaway's cash pile, which includes cash, cash equivalents, and U.S. Treasuries, has ballooned to a near-record $344.1 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2022 年 10 月起，奥马哈先知开始出售的股票数量超过购买的数量。这一净卖出活动已经持续了 11 个连续季度（2022 年 10 月 1 日–2025 年 6 月 30 日），净股票销售总额达到 1774 亿美元。与此同时，伯克希尔哈撒韦的现金储备，包括现金、现金等价物和美国国债，已膨胀至近创纪录的 3441 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Despite sitting on $344 billion in capital, Buffett prefers to be a net-seller of stocks, and isn't even buying shares of his own company any longer. It's as direct a warning as Wall Street will get from Berkshire's billionaire chief.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管手握 3440 亿美元的资本，巴菲特更倾向于成为股票的净卖方，甚至不再购买自己公司的股票。这是华尔街从伯克希尔的亿万首席执行官那里得到的最直接的警告。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxMTQvc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWNhbmRsZXN0aWNrLWNoYXJ0LWNpcmNsZS1idXktZGlwLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832114%2Fstock-market-candlestick-chart-circle-buy-dip-invest-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Patience pays off handsomely in the stock market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>耐心在股市中获得丰厚回报</h2>
</div><p>Though Buffett's ominous advice – &#34;often, nothing looks compelling&#34; -- perfectly explains why he's been more of a seller than a buyer amid a historically pricey stock market, it also provides a backdrop of how Berkshire's boss has been able to deliver outsized returns spanning six decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管巴菲特的不祥建议——“通常，没有什么看起来令人信服”——完美解释了他为何在历史上高价的股市中更多地作为卖方而非买方，但这也为伯克希尔的老板如何在六十年间实现超额回报提供了背景。</p>
</div><p>Fundamentally, Warren Buffett is well aware that the U.S. economy and stock market have both expanded over the long run. Even though recessions and stock market corrections are normal and inevitable aspects of respective economic and stock market cycles, optimism prevails over long periods. This means being patient and waiting for price dislocations to become apparent is a winning and time-tested strategy -- in case the nearly 6,140,000% aggregate return for Berkshire's Class A shares didn't give it away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从根本上讲，沃伦·巴菲特深知美国经济和股市在长期内都在扩张。尽管经济和股市周期中衰退和股市修正是正常且不可避免的，但乐观情绪在长时间内占据主导地位。这意味着耐心等待价格失调显现出来是一种成功且经过时间考验的策略——如果伯克希尔 A 类股票近 6,140,000% 的总回报没有说明这一点的话。</p>
</div><p>In August 2011, shortly after the worst of the financial crisis, the Oracle of Omaha engineered a $5 billion stake in <strong>Bank of America</strong>(BAC -1.29%) preferred stock. While Bank of America wasn't desperate for cash, it wasn't going to turn down the opportunity to shore up its balance sheet amid ongoing litigation and a still-uncertain loan portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2011 年 8 月，金融危机最严重的时候不久，奥马哈先知在 <strong>美国银行</strong>（BAC -1.29%）的优先股上进行了 50 亿美元的投资。虽然美国银行并不急需现金，但在持续的诉讼和仍不确定的贷款组合中，它不会拒绝增强资产负债表的机会。</p>
</div><p>When Buffett initially made this investment, Bank of America's common stock was trading at a 62% discount to its book value. But in the summer of 2017, Berkshire exercised its warrants to purchase 700 million shares of BofA stock at $7.14 per share. This August 2011 price dislocation instantly netted Berkshire a $12 billion (unrealized) profit, which has since grown even larger.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当巴菲特最初进行这项投资时，美国银行的普通股交易价格比其账面价值低 62%。但在 2017 年夏天，伯克希尔行使其认购权，以每股 7.14 美元的价格购买了 7 亿股美国银行股票。这一 2011 年 8 月的价格失调立即为伯克希尔带来了 120 亿美元（未实现）的利润，且这一利润至今仍在不断增长。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire's billionaire CEO recognized a price dislocation with <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.16%), as well, in early 2016. The maker of the beloved iPhone was trading at just 10 to 15 times forward-year earnings nine years ago, which is an inexpensive valuation for a company that had been consistently growing by high single digits to low double digits annually. Apple stock has jumped approximately tenfold since Buffett first entered the position, with artificial intelligence euphoria and the company's rapidly growing services segment doing a lot of the heavy lifting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔的亿万富翁首席执行官在 2016 年初也意识到了 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.16%) 的价格错位。这家备受喜爱的 iPhone 制造商在九年前的交易价格仅为未来一年收益的 10 到 15 倍，这对于一家年均持续增长高个位数到低双位数的公司来说是一个便宜的估值。自巴菲特首次进入该头寸以来，苹果股票已经上涨了大约十倍，人工智能的热潮和公司快速增长的服务部门为此做出了很大贡献。</p>
</div><p>Although it can be frustrating waiting for Warren Buffett and his top advisors to deploy Berkshire Hathaway's treasure chest, being patient has paid off handsomely for decades. When price dislocations do become apparent in the future, Buffett or his successor Greg Abel will be ready to pounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管等待沃伦·巴菲特和他的顶级顾问部署伯克希尔哈撒韦的宝藏可能令人沮丧，但耐心在几十年中获得了丰厚的回报。当未来价格错位变得明显时，巴菲特或他的继任者格雷格·阿贝尔将准备好迅速出击。</p>
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4 Ominous Words of Advice From Warren Buffett That Perfectly Explain His $344 Billion Warning to Wall Street, as Well as Berkshire's 6,140,000% Return in 60 Years

- 沃伦·巴菲特将在四个月后退休，结束其六十年的 CEO 生涯。  
- 目前，巴菲特的净股票销售已达 1774 亿美元，现金储备接近 3441 亿美元。  
- 巴菲特表示 “常常没有吸引力的投资”，反映出当前市场估值过高。  

沃伦·巴菲特的四句不祥建议完美地解释了他对华尔街发出的 3440 亿美元警告，以及伯克希尔在 60 年间取得的 6140000% 回报