<p>很难否认 <strong>比特币</strong>（BTC 0.67%）的历史表现。在过去的 10 年中，比特币在 8 年里都是全球表现最好的资产。正因如此，比特币在过去十年中上涨了大约 48,500%。</p>
<p>但是，正如投资界所说，过去的表现并不能保证未来的成功。比特币可能是过去十年的最佳资产，但它能否也成为长期赢家？</p>
<h2>比特币的稀缺性</h2>
<p>要理解比特币的长期吸引力，考虑其固有的稀缺性是很重要的。比特币的总量上限为 2100 万个，而其中近 2000 万个已经在流通中。在流通的比特币中，估计有 370 万个可能永远丢失，因此比特币的实际流通供应量可能更接近 1630 万个。</p>
<p>作为对比，其他加密货币通常在流通中有数十亿个币，有些甚至有数万亿个币。这就是为什么有时投资者似乎在囤积比特币，因为可供使用的数量实在不多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzEzMjcvYml0Y29pbi1jcnlwdG9jdXJyZW5jeS1vbi13YWxsLXN0cmVldC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzEzMjcvYml0Y29pbi1jcnlwdG9jdXJyZW5jeS1vbi13YWxsLXN0cmVldC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>这也是为什么许多投资者常常将比特币与黄金进行比较。地球上可开采的黄金供应是有限的，就像比特币的供应也是有限的，只有通过计算能力才能开采。</p>
<p>在未来十年中，应该会有越来越多的投资者争相购买比特币，这将对其价格施加上行压力。这是供需法则在加密货币中的应用。这也是比特币对长期投资者如此有吸引力的部分原因：供应将保持不变，而需求似乎注定会飙升。</p>
<p>此外，由于流通中的币总数有硬性上限，因此没有任何中央银行或主权政府能够通过通货膨胀来削弱比特币的价值。随着时间的推移，比特币应该能够保持其价值，使其成为对抗通货膨胀的有价值的对冲工具。</p>
<h2>机构采用</h2>
<p>与此同时，比特币的机构采用正在不断增长。可以从两个方面来看待机构采用。</p>
<p>一个是从机构投资者积极将比特币纳入其投资组合的角度来看。随着去年新推出的现货比特币 ETF 的推出，机构投资者现在相对容易获得比特币的敞口。因此，在 2024 年，超过 1000 亿美元流入了这些新的现货比特币 ETF。</p>
<p>根据 <strong>Coinbase Global</strong>（NASDAQ: COIN）的估计，大约 75% 的机构投资者计划在今年增加比特币的持仓。目前，投资组合中比特币的目标配置比例大约为 1% 到 2%。但随着时间的推移，这一配置比例可能会增长到 5% 甚至更高。这也将对比特币的价格施加上行压力。</p>
<p>另一种看待机构采用的方式是从实用性角度来看。换句话说，比特币的使用案例是什么？人们真的在使用比特币，还是仅仅在囤积他们的币？</p>
<p>考虑到这一点，Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood 制定了一个估值模型，突出了比特币的八种不同用途，以及它们预计将如何随着时间的推移而增长。在一个乐观的情景中，所有这些用途将在未来五年内增长，从而导致对比特币的需求进一步增加。</p>
<h2>比特币真的能再次飙升吗？</h2>
<p>如果你查看比特币在过去十年的价格历史，有一个惊人的事实显而易见：比特币的价格似乎以惊人的速度在上涨。从 1000 美元涨到 10000 美元仅用了四年，而从 10000 美元涨到 100000 美元则仅用了七年。</p>
<p>如果比特币能够保持这种势头，那么它再次增加十倍的价值是可以想象的。事实上，越来越多的投资者现在相信，比特币在未来几年内可能会达到 100 万美元。根据 Coinbase 首席执行官 Brian Armstrong 的说法，比特币可能在 2030 年底前达到 100 万美元。</p>
<p>很难想到还有其他资产具有同样的上涨潜力。比特币作为全球最受欢迎的加密货币，得到了企业、华尔街投资公司甚至美国财政部的日益支持。在这样的支持下，比特币具备成为长期赢家的潜力。</p>

GBTC

<p>比特币在过去十年中表现最佳，增值约为 48,500%。其稀缺性使得仅有 2100 万个币的供应增强了其长期吸引力。机构投资的采用正在增加，2024 年流入现货比特币 ETF 的资金超过 1000 亿美元。投资者对比特币的未来持乐观态度，预测到 2030 年其价格可能达到 100 万美元。有限的供应与日益增长的需求相结合，使比特币在加密货币市场中成为潜在的长期赢家</p>

<p>It's hard to argue with the historical track record of <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC 0.67%). In eight of the past 10 years, Bitcoin has been the top-performing asset in the world. As a result of that performance, Bitcoin is up approximately 48,500% over the past decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很难否认 <strong>比特币</strong>（BTC 0.67%）的历史表现。在过去的 10 年中，比特币在 8 年里都是全球表现最好的资产。正因如此，比特币在过去十年中上涨了大约 48,500%。</p>
</div><p>But, as they say in the world of investing, past performance is no guarantee of future success. Bitcoin may be the top-performing asset of the past decade, but can it also be a long-term winner?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，正如投资界所说，过去的表现并不能保证未来的成功。比特币可能是过去十年的最佳资产，但它能否也成为长期赢家？</p>
</div><h2>Bitcoin's scarcity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特币的稀缺性</h2>
</div><p>To understand Bitcoin's long-term appeal, it's important to take its inherent scarcity into account. Only 21 million Bitcoins can ever exist, and nearly 20 million of them are already in circulation. Of those in circulation, an estimated 3.7 million may be lost forever, so the real circulating supply of Bitcoin may be closer to 16.3 million coins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要理解比特币的长期吸引力，考虑其固有的稀缺性是很重要的。比特币的总量上限为 2100 万个，而其中近 2000 万个已经在流通中。在流通的比特币中，估计有 370 万个可能永远丢失，因此比特币的实际流通供应量可能更接近 1630 万个。</p>
</div><p>By way of comparison, other cryptocurrencies typically have billions of coins in circulation, and some even have trillions of coins in circulation. That's why it sometimes seems like investors are hoarding their Bitcoin. There's just not a lot to go around.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为对比，其他加密货币通常在流通中有数十亿个币，有些甚至有数万亿个币。这就是为什么有时投资者似乎在囤积比特币，因为可供使用的数量实在不多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzEzMjcvYml0Y29pbi1jcnlwdG9jdXJyZW5jeS1vbi13YWxsLXN0cmVldC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831327%2Fbitcoin-cryptocurrency-on-wall-street.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>This is also why many investors often compare Bitcoin to gold. There is a finite supply of gold that can ever be mined on planet Earth, just as there is a finite supply of Bitcoin that can ever be mined using computing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也是为什么许多投资者常常将比特币与黄金进行比较。地球上可开采的黄金供应是有限的，就像比特币的供应也是有限的，只有通过计算能力才能开采。</p>
</div><p>Over the next decade, there should be more and more investors scrambling to buy Bitcoin, and that should put upward pressure on its price. It's the Law of Supply and Demand, applied to crypto. That's part of what makes Bitcoin so attractive to long-term investors: Supply will remain constant, while demand seems destined to soar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在未来十年中，应该会有越来越多的投资者争相购买比特币，这将对其价格施加上行压力。这是供需法则在加密货币中的应用。这也是比特币对长期投资者如此有吸引力的部分原因：供应将保持不变，而需求似乎注定会飙升。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, since there is a hard cap on the total number of coins that can ever be in circulation, there's no way that any central bank or sovereign government can inflate away the value of Bitcoin. Over time, Bitcoin should maintain its value, making it a valuable hedge against inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，由于流通中的币总数有硬性上限，因此没有任何中央银行或主权政府能够通过通货膨胀来削弱比特币的价值。随着时间的推移，比特币应该能够保持其价值，使其成为对抗通货膨胀的有价值的对冲工具。</p>
</div><h2>Institutional adoption</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>机构采用</h2>
</div><p>At the same time, there is growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin. There are two ways to think about institutional adoption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，比特币的机构采用正在不断增长。可以从两个方面来看待机构采用。</p>
</div><p>One is from the perspective of institutional investors actively adding Bitcoin to their portfolios. With the launch of the new spot Bitcoin ETFs last year, it's now relatively easy for institutional investors to get exposure to Bitcoin. As a result, in 2024, over $100 billion flowed into these new spot Bitcoin ETFs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个是从机构投资者积极将比特币纳入其投资组合的角度来看。随着去年新推出的现货比特币 ETF 的推出，机构投资者现在相对容易获得比特币的敞口。因此，在 2024 年，超过 1000 亿美元流入了这些新的现货比特币 ETF。</p>
</div><p>According to estimates from <strong>Coinbase Global</strong>(NASDAQ: COIN), roughly 75% of institutional investors plan to increase the size of their Bitcoin position this year. Right now, the target allocation percentage for Bitcoin in a portfolio is roughly 1% to 2%. But, over time, that allocation could grow to 5% or even higher. That, too, should put upward pressure on the price of Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 <strong>Coinbase Global</strong>（NASDAQ: COIN）的估计，大约 75% 的机构投资者计划在今年增加比特币的持仓。目前，投资组合中比特币的目标配置比例大约为 1% 到 2%。但随着时间的推移，这一配置比例可能会增长到 5% 甚至更高。这也将对比特币的价格施加上行压力。</p>
</div><p>The other way to think about institutional adoption is in terms of utility. In other words, what are the use cases for Bitcoin? Are people actually using Bitcoin, or just hoarding their coins?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一种看待机构采用的方式是从实用性角度来看。换句话说，比特币的使用案例是什么？人们真的在使用比特币，还是仅仅在囤积他们的币？</p>
</div><p>With that in mind, Cathie Wood of Ark Invest has put together a valuation model that highlights eight different uses for Bitcoin, and how they are projected to grow over time. In a bull-case scenario, all of these will grow over the next five years, leading to even more demand for Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到这一点，Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood 制定了一个估值模型，突出了比特币的八种不同用途，以及它们预计将如何随着时间的推移而增长。在一个乐观的情景中，所有这些用途将在未来五年内增长，从而导致对比特币的需求进一步增加。</p>
</div><h2>Can Bitcoin really skyrocket in value yet again?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特币真的能再次飙升吗？</h2>
</div><p>If you examine the price history of Bitcoin over the past decade, one startling fact stands out: Bitcoin appears to be appreciating in price at an incredible rate. It took just four years for Bitcoin to move from $1,000 to $10,000, and then just seven years for Bitcoin to move from $10,000 to $100,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你查看比特币在过去十年的价格历史，有一个惊人的事实显而易见：比特币的价格似乎以惊人的速度在上涨。从 1000 美元涨到 10000 美元仅用了四年，而从 10000 美元涨到 100000 美元则仅用了七年。</p>
</div><p>If Bitcoin is able to maintain this same type of momentum, it's conceivable that it could increase in value by a factor of 10 once again. In fact, a growing number of investors are now convinced that Bitcoin could hit a price of $1 million within the next few years. According to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Bitcoin could hit $1 million by the end of 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果比特币能够保持这种势头，那么它再次增加十倍的价值是可以想象的。事实上，越来越多的投资者现在相信，比特币在未来几年内可能会达到 100 万美元。根据 Coinbase 首席执行官 Brian Armstrong 的说法，比特币可能在 2030 年底前达到 100 万美元。</p>
</div><p>It's hard to think of another asset that has the same type of upside potential. Bitcoin stands alone as the world's most popular cryptocurrency, and has the growing support of corporations, Wall Street investment firms, and even the U.S. Treasury Department. With support like that, Bitcoin has what it takes to be a long-term winner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很难想到还有其他资产具有同样的上涨潜力。比特币作为全球最受欢迎的加密货币，得到了企业、华尔街投资公司甚至美国财政部的日益支持。在这样的支持下，比特币具备成为长期赢家的潜力。</p>
</div>

比特币能否成为长期的赢家？