<p>在一月份，我写了一篇文章，提出了一个简单的问题：人工智能（AI）软件供应商 <strong>C3.ai</strong>(AI 0.78%) 能否成为 2025 年的 <strong>Palantir</strong> <strong>Technologies</strong>(PLTR -2.04%)？</p>
<p>快进到 9 月 4 日，市场给出了明确的判决。Palantir 的股票今年迄今已上涨 105%。相比之下，C3.ai 的股票暴跌 54%，徘徊在多年来的低点。因此，我之前的问题的答案似乎是一个明确的 “否”。</p>
<p>但就在 C3.ai 的情绪似乎无法进一步恶化时，该公司又给股东带来了另一轮令人不安的消息。最终，C3.ai 的疲软对 Palantir 投资者来说是一个重大胜利。</p>
<h2>C3.ai 是一家处于衰退中的企业</h2>
<p>在 5 月，C3.ai 发布了其 2025 财年的最后一组业绩（该财年于 4 月 30 日结束）。当时，它对 2026 财年第一季度和全年发布了财务指引。</p>
<p>下表概述了该公司之前发布的指引与其实际报告业绩的对比。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2026 财年第一季度指引</th>
<th>2026 财年第一季度实际</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>总收入</td>
<td>1 亿到 1.09 亿美元</td>
<td>7030 万美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>运营收入（非 GAAP）</td>
<td>（-2350 万到 -3350 万美元）</td>
<td>（-5780 万美元）</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：投资者关系。</p>
<p>在收入方面，C3.ai 的业绩比其指引区间的中点低了超过 30%，而其运营亏损几乎是管理层预测悲观端的两倍。更令人失望的是，销售不仅环比下降，而且也低于上一财年同一时期的水平。</p>
<p>鉴于这种业绩不佳，管理层撤回了之前的全年指引，并未提供新的展望，使投资者对 C3.ai 的收入或盈利能力没有明确的预期。</p>
<p>这不仅意味着公司前景的不确定性加剧，也在信心本已脆弱的时刻削弱了管理层的可信度。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIwNTcvZ2V0dHktZ29vZC1uZXdzLWJhZC1uZXdzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIwNTcvZ2V0dHktZ29vZC1uZXdzLWJhZC1uZXdzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>其困境对 Palantir 投资者来说是个好消息</h2>
<p>对 Palantir 和 C3.ai 的一个常见批评是它们过于依赖少数客户。值得称赞的是，这两家公司都在努力进一步扩大其客户和收入基础。</p>
<p>C3.ai 的销售组合在过去几年中发生了显著变化。到 2023 年 3 月，近 72% 的预订来自石油和天然气领域的公司，另有 16% 与联邦、航空航天和国防客户相关。</p>
<p>最近，该公司开始多元化：制造业、公用事业、化工和医疗保健现在占据了不断增长的部分。同时，C3.ai 在公共部门仍然保持显著的存在——第一季度的预订中有 32% 来自州和地方政府，以及航空航天和国防。</p>
<p>Palantir 在客户组合方面经历了类似的演变，但区别在于其合同的规模和战略重要性。该公司起初为政府机构提供服务，已建立了获得高知名度合同的良好记录，确认其在公共和私人市场中作为不可或缺的合作伙伴的地位。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>国防和政府：</strong> 在 5 月，Palantir 的 Maven 智能系统合同扩大了 7.95 亿美元，使总价值达到 12.8 亿美元。最近，美国陆军将与该公司的 75 个单独协议整合为一份价值高达 100 亿美元的合同，期限为十年。除了国内政府机构，Palantir 还扩大了与国际联盟的合作，尤其是与北约的协议。</li>
<li><strong>商业扩展：</strong> 在企业方面，Palantir 与航空领域的领先公司如 <strong>Archer Aviation</strong> 和 <strong>American Airlines</strong> 合作。</li>
<li><strong>战略合作伙伴关系：</strong> Palantir 还与全球技术和咨询领导者建立了合作生态系统，包括 <strong>Oracle</strong>、<strong>Accenture</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> Web Services (AWS)、<strong>Booz Allen Hamilton</strong>、PwC、<strong>Microsoft</strong>、KPMG、Databricks 和 Deloitte。</li>
</ul>
<p>这些合作伙伴关系不仅扩大了 Palantir 的分销渠道，还巩固了其在企业 AI 软件堆栈中的核心地位。</p>
<p>相比之下，虽然 C3.ai 也建立了合作伙伴关系并获得了合同，但它们的范围往往较窄，战略重要性较低。Palantir 继续捕获旗舰机会，使 C3.ai 竞争较小、影响力较低的交易。这种动态使 Palantir 成为高风险部署的默认选择，而 C3.ai 仍然是次要选择。</p>
<h2>Palantir 股票现在值得买吗？</h2>
<p>在下面，我将 Palantir 与两个在 AI 和公私部署交集处与其竞争的同行进行了基准比较。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6ef965455b17fc43dca68e8e72f4570e.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6ef965455b17fc43dca68e8e72f4570e.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS 比率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>Palantir 的市销率为 114，毫无疑问是偏高的——即使与之前的市场泡沫相比也是如此。然而，Palantir 与其同行——C3.ai 和 <strong>BigBear.ai</strong> 之间的估值倍数差异不应被误解。</p>
<p>C3.ai 表面上看似乎是个便宜货，但这是一种经典的价值陷阱：该业务处于结构性衰退中，并在稳步让位于其更大的竞争对手。</p>
<p>随着 C3.ai 股票变成一把下跌的刀，成长型投资者更应该持有像 Palantir 这样的成熟领导者的股票，该公司继续巩固其在政府和商业市场的长期相关性。</p>

PLTR

<p>C3.ai 最近的表现让投资者失望，今年股价下跌了 54%，而 Palantir 的股价则上涨了 105%。C3.ai 2026 财年第一季度的业绩大幅低于预期，导致对其未来的不确定性。相比之下，Palantir 已获得大量合同，包括与美国陆军签署的 100 亿美元交易，使其在人工智能部署方面处于领先地位。这一动态突显了 Palantir 相较于 C3.ai 更强的市场地位，后者在合同数量上较少且战略重要性较低</p>

<p>Back in January, I wrote an article that posed a straightforward question: Could artificial intelligence (AI) software vendor <strong>C3.ai</strong>(AI 0.78%) emerge as the <strong>Palantir</strong> <strong>Technologies</strong>(PLTR -2.04%) of 2025?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一月份，我写了一篇文章，提出了一个简单的问题：人工智能（AI）软件供应商 <strong>C3.ai</strong>(AI 0.78%) 能否成为 2025 年的 <strong>Palantir</strong> <strong>Technologies</strong>(PLTR -2.04%)？</p>
</div><p>Fast-forward to Sept. 4, and the market has delivered a clear verdict. Palantir stock has surged 105% so far this year. By contrast, shares of C3.ai have plummeted by 54% and are hovering around a multiyear low. So the answer to my earlier question appears to be a decisive &#34;no.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>快进到 9 月 4 日，市场给出了明确的判决。Palantir 的股票今年迄今已上涨 105%。相比之下，C3.ai 的股票暴跌 54%，徘徊在多年来的低点。因此，我之前的问题的答案似乎是一个明确的 “否”。</p>
</div><p>But just when sentiment around C3.ai seemed like it couldn't deteriorate further, the company delivered another round of unsettling news for shareholders. And ultimately, C3.ai's weakness represents a significant win for Palantir investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但就在 C3.ai 的情绪似乎无法进一步恶化时，该公司又给股东带来了另一轮令人不安的消息。最终，C3.ai 的疲软对 Palantir 投资者来说是一个重大胜利。</p>
</div><h2>C3.ai is a business in decline</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>C3.ai 是一家处于衰退中的企业</h2>
</div><p>Back in May, C3.ai released its final set of results for its fiscal 2025 (which ended April 30). At that time, it issued financial guidance for both the first quarter of its fiscal 2026 and the full year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 5 月，C3.ai 发布了其 2025 财年的最后一组业绩（该财年于 4 月 30 日结束）。当时，它对 2026 财年第一季度和全年发布了财务指引。</p>
</div><p>The table below outlines the company's previously issued guidance compared to its actual reported performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下表概述了该公司之前发布的指引与其实际报告业绩的对比。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Fiscal 2026 Q1 Guidance</th>
<th>Fiscal 2026 Q1 Actual</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Total revenue</td>
<td>$100 million to $109 million</td>
<td>$70.3 million</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Income from operations (non-GAAP)</td>
<td>($23.5 million to $33.5 million)</td>
<td>($57.8 million)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指标</th>
<th>2026 财年第一季度指引</th>
<th>2026 财年第一季度实际</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>总收入</td>
<td>1 亿到 1.09 亿美元</td>
<td>7030 万美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>运营收入（非 GAAP）</td>
<td>（-2350 万到 -3350 万美元）</td>
<td>（-5780 万美元）</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Investor relations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：投资者关系。</p>
</div><p>On revenue, C3.ai fell short of the midpoint of its guidance range by more than 30%, and its operating loss was nearly twice as bad as the pessimistic end of management's forecast. Compounding the disappointment, sales not only declined sequentially (quarter over quarter), but were also lower than in the same period of the prior fiscal year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在收入方面，C3.ai 的业绩比其指引区间的中点低了超过 30%，而其运营亏损几乎是管理层预测悲观端的两倍。更令人失望的是，销售不仅环比下降，而且也低于上一财年同一时期的水平。</p>
</div><p>In light of that underperformance, management withdrew its prior full-year guidance and did not provide a new outlook, leaving investors without clear expectations for C3.ai's revenue or profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于这种业绩不佳，管理层撤回了之前的全年指引，并未提供新的展望，使投资者对 C3.ai 的收入或盈利能力没有明确的预期。</p>
</div><p>This only signals heightened uncertainty around the company's outlook, but also erodes management's credibility at a time when confidence is already fragile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这不仅意味着公司前景的不确定性加剧，也在信心本已脆弱的时刻削弱了管理层的可信度。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIwNTcvZ2V0dHktZ29vZC1uZXdzLWJhZC1uZXdzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832057%2Fgetty-good-news-bad-news.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Its troubles are fantastic news for Palantir investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>其困境对 Palantir 投资者来说是个好消息</h2>
</div><p>One frequent criticism leveled against both Palantir and C3.ai is that they are overly dependent on a small number of clients. To their credit, both companies have worked to expand their customer and revenue bases further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对 Palantir 和 C3.ai 的一个常见批评是它们过于依赖少数客户。值得称赞的是，这两家公司都在努力进一步扩大其客户和收入基础。</p>
</div><p>C3.ai's sales mix has shifted meaningfully over the last few years. Back in March 2023, nearly 72% of its bookings came from companies in the oil and natural gas space, with another 16% tied to federal, aerospace, and defense customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>C3.ai 的销售组合在过去几年中发生了显著变化。到 2023 年 3 月，近 72% 的预订来自石油和天然气领域的公司，另有 16% 与联邦、航空航天和国防客户相关。</p>
</div><p>More recently, the company has begun to diversify: Manufacturing, utilities, chemicals, and healthcare now represent growing portions of the portfolio. At the same time, C3.ai continues to hold a notable presence in the public sector -- with 32% of first-quarter bookings coming from state and local governments, as well as aerospace and defense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，该公司开始多元化：制造业、公用事业、化工和医疗保健现在占据了不断增长的部分。同时，C3.ai 在公共部门仍然保持显著的存在——第一季度的预订中有 32% 来自州和地方政府，以及航空航天和国防。</p>
</div><p>Palantir has undergone a similar evolution in its customer mix, but the difference lies in the sheer scale and strategic importance of its contracts. The company, which got its start serving government agencies, has established a track record of securing high-profile contracts that affirm its standing as an indispensable partner across both public and private markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 在客户组合方面经历了类似的演变，但区别在于其合同的规模和战略重要性。该公司起初为政府机构提供服务，已建立了获得高知名度合同的良好记录，确认其在公共和私人市场中作为不可或缺的合作伙伴的地位。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Defense and government:</strong> In May, Palantir's Maven Smart System contract was expanded by $795 million -- bringing the total value to $1.28 billion. More recently, the U.S. Army consolidated 75 separate agreements with the company into a single contract worth up to $10 billion over the next decade. Beyond domestic government agencies, Palantir has extended its reach to international alliances -- most notably, a deal with NATO.</li>
<li><strong>Commercial expansion:</strong> On the enterprise side, Palantir works with leading names in aviation such as <strong>Archer Aviation</strong> and <strong>American Airlines</strong>.</li>
<li><strong>Strategic partnerships:</strong> Palantir has also cultivated an ecosystem of alliances with global technology and consulting leaders, including <strong>Oracle</strong>, <strong>Accenture</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong> Web Services (AWS), <strong>Booz Allen Hamilton</strong>, PwC, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, KPMG, Databricks, and Deloitte.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>国防和政府：</strong> 在 5 月，Palantir 的 Maven 智能系统合同扩大了 7.95 亿美元，使总价值达到 12.8 亿美元。最近，美国陆军将与该公司的 75 个单独协议整合为一份价值高达 100 亿美元的合同，期限为十年。除了国内政府机构，Palantir 还扩大了与国际联盟的合作，尤其是与北约的协议。</li>
<li><strong>商业扩展：</strong> 在企业方面，Palantir 与航空领域的领先公司如 <strong>Archer Aviation</strong> 和 <strong>American Airlines</strong> 合作。</li>
<li><strong>战略合作伙伴关系：</strong> Palantir 还与全球技术和咨询领导者建立了合作生态系统，包括 <strong>Oracle</strong>、<strong>Accenture</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong> Web Services (AWS)、<strong>Booz Allen Hamilton</strong>、PwC、<strong>Microsoft</strong>、KPMG、Databricks 和 Deloitte。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>These partnerships not only expand Palantir's distribution channels, but also reinforce its position as a core layer within the enterprise AI software stack.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些合作伙伴关系不仅扩大了 Palantir 的分销渠道，还巩固了其在企业 AI 软件堆栈中的核心地位。</p>
</div><p>By contrast, while C3.ai has established partnerships and secured contracts of its own, they tend to be narrower in scope and carry less strategic weight. Palantir continues to capture the flagship opportunities, leaving C3.ai competing for smaller, less influential deals. This dynamic positions Palantir as the default choice for high-stakes deployments, while C3.ai remains a secondary option.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，虽然 C3.ai 也建立了合作伙伴关系并获得了合同，但它们的范围往往较窄，战略重要性较低。Palantir 继续捕获旗舰机会，使 C3.ai 竞争较小、影响力较低的交易。这种动态使 Palantir 成为高风险部署的默认选择，而 C3.ai 仍然是次要选择。</p>
</div><h2>Is Palantir stock a buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 股票现在值得买吗？</h2>
</div><p>Below, I've benchmarked Palantir against two peers that are competing with it for market share at the intersection of AI and public-private deployments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下面，我将 Palantir 与两个在 AI 和公私部署交集处与其竞争的同行进行了基准比较。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6ef965455b17fc43dca68e8e72f4570e.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6ef965455b17fc43dca68e8e72f4570e.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR PS 比率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Palantir's price-to-sales ratio of 114 is undeniably elevated -- even when viewed against the backdrop of prior market bubbles. However, the disparity in valuation multiples between Palantir and its cohorts -- C3.ai and <strong>BigBear.ai</strong> -- should not be misinterpreted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 的市销率为 114，毫无疑问是偏高的——即使与之前的市场泡沫相比也是如此。然而，Palantir 与其同行——C3.ai 和 <strong>BigBear.ai</strong> 之间的估值倍数差异不应被误解。</p>
</div><p>C3.ai may look like a bargain on the surface, but it's a classic value trap: The business is in structural decline and steadily ceding ground to its larger rival.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>C3.ai 表面上看似乎是个便宜货，但这是一种经典的价值陷阱：该业务处于结构性衰退中，并在稳步让位于其更大的竞争对手。</p>
</div><p>With C3.ai stock turning into a falling knife, growth investors would be far better served to hold shares of an established leader like Palantir, which continues to solidify its long-term relevancy across government and commercial markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 C3.ai 股票变成一把下跌的刀，成长型投资者更应该持有像 Palantir 这样的成熟领导者的股票，该公司继续巩固其在政府和商业市场的长期相关性。</p>
</div>

C3.ai CEO Stephen Ehikian Just Delivered Incredible News for Palantir Investors

- C3.ai 财务表现不佳，第一季度收入仅为 70.3 百万美元，远低于预期。  
- Palantir 通过高价值合同和战略合作，巩固市场地位。  
- C3.ai 的困境为 Palantir 投资者带来利好消息。  

C3.ai 首席执行官 Stephen Ehikian 刚刚为 Palantir 投资者传递了令人振奋的消息