<p><strong>博通</strong>、<strong>甲骨文</strong>（ORCL 3.50%）和 <strong>奈飞</strong> 的卓越回报为一种新的市场领先增长股票类别铺平了道路，这被称为 “十巨头”。</p>
<p>该组包括这三家公司以及 “七大巨头”——<strong>英伟达</strong>、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>。</p>
<p>这十巨头占据了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC 0.28%）的 38%，提供了一种更全面的方式来衡量该指数的领导地位。</p>
<p>博通在 9 月 5 日发布季度财报后，业绩大幅超出预期，股价飙升至历史新高。以下是甲骨文面临压力的原因，该公司定于 9 月 9 日发布财报，以及它需要做些什么来证明其高估值的合理性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxMzEvYWJzdHJhY3QtY29uY2VwdC1vZi10aGUtZGlnaXRhbC10cmFuc2Zvcm1hdGlvbi1zaG93Y2FzaW5nLXRoZS1ncm93aW5nLXJvbGUtYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWktaXMtcGxheWluZy1pbi10ZWNobm9sb2d5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxMzEvYWJzdHJhY3QtY29uY2VwdC1vZi10aGUtZGlnaXRhbC10cmFuc2Zvcm1hdGlvbi1zaG93Y2FzaW5nLXRoZS1ncm93aW5nLXJvbGUtYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWktaXMtcGxheWluZy1pbi10ZWNobm9sb2d5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>甲骨文正在成为云计算的主要参与者</h2>
<p>自 2020 年初以来，甲骨文的股价上涨超过 300%，这主要得益于甲骨文云基础设施（OCI）的建设。</p>
<p>作为一家数据库服务公司，甲骨文之前依赖第三方云服务提供商。但 OCI 改变了游戏规则，使甲骨文能够从其企业客户那里获得新的收入来源。</p>
<p>扩大 OCI 的决定代价不菲，但它重新定义了甲骨文的投资论点。关键优势在于甲骨文的竞争定价模式。对于已经使用其数据库服务的客户来说，OCI 是一个理所当然的附加服务。而且由于甲骨文是一家纯粹的企业对企业公司，它可以围绕企业需求构建其云和集成定价模式。相比之下，其他主要云服务提供商——亚马逊网络服务、微软 Azure 和谷歌云——都有庞大的面向消费者的业务。因此，甲骨文为投资者提供了一种独特的方式来押注云计算和企业软件。</p>
<h2>甲骨文正在巩固其云计算势头</h2>
<p>甲骨文发布财报时需要关注的关键指标是其资本支出（capex）和云收入，包括云基础设施和云应用。在 2025 财年第四季度，甲骨文在 6 月发布的财报中显示，云收入占总收入的 42.1%——这表明云计算确实正在改变甲骨文的业务。</p>
<p>在整个财年中，甲骨文的云总收入增长了 24%。在 6 月的财报中，甲骨文表示，预计 2026 财年的增长率将 “显著提高”，云增长将加速至 40%，其中云基础设施的增长高达惊人的 70%（得益于 OCI）。</p>
<p>即将发布的财报对支持甲骨文的雄心目标和为财年剩余时间奠定基础至关重要。如果甲骨文未能维持其云增长率，投资者可能会审视其支出，并对其杠杆资产负债表产生担忧。</p>
<h2>增长是有代价的</h2>
<p>以下图表概括了目前甲骨文股票的叙述。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/89ef28ffe1dfd28a4957b0fd06692b83.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/89ef28ffe1dfd28a4957b0fd06692b83.png"/></p>
<p>ORCL 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>该股票热度高涨，但净长期债务和资本支出占收入的比例也在上升。换句话说，尽管其收入尚未反映这些投资的回报，投资者仍在奖励甲骨文承担债务并在长期投资上花费大量资金。投资者正在给予甲骨文积极扩展其云服务的绿灯。但总有一天，这些投资必须转化为底线结果。</p>
<p>分析师的共识预期反映了这种乐观的前景。他们预计 2026 财年的每股收益（EPS）为 6.78 美元，随后在 2027 财年实现 20% 的收益增长，达到每股 8.14 美元。作为参考，甲骨文 2025 财年的稀释每股收益为 4.34 美元，接近历史最高水平。</p>
<h2>以长期思维看待甲骨文</h2>
<p>甲骨文是一项高风险、高潜在回报的人工智能和软件投资。根据本文撰写时的股价 223 美元，如果甲骨文能够在未来几年实现收益预期，其估值看起来是合理的。如果甲骨文未能达标，投资者可能会质疑其支出和债务积累是否值得。</p>
<p>甲骨文的投资论点现在高度集中于人工智能和云计算，股价也因此反映出高估值。因此，投资者只有在具备高风险承受能力和长期投资时间框架的情况下，才应考虑投资该股票。</p>

甲骨文

<p>甲骨文面临压力，需在 9 月 9 日发布强劲的财报，以证明其在云计算领域重大投资下的高估值合理性。自 2020 年以来，该公司增长超过 300%，主要得益于其甲骨文云基础设施（OCI）。需要关注的关键指标包括资本支出和云收入，这对维持投资者信心至关重要。分析师预测盈利增长，但如果增长率放缓，可能会出现对债务和支出上升的担忧。考虑到当前的估值，投资者应以长期的心态和较高的风险承受能力来对待甲骨文</p>

<p>Exceptional returns by <strong>Broadcom</strong>, <strong>Oracle</strong>(ORCL 3.50%), and <strong>Netflix</strong> have paved the way for a new class of market-leading growth stocks known as the &#34;Ten Titans.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>博通</strong>、<strong>甲骨文</strong>（ORCL 3.50%）和 <strong>奈飞</strong> 的卓越回报为一种新的市场领先增长股票类别铺平了道路，这被称为 “十巨头”。</p>
</div><p>The group includes these three companies plus the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; -- <strong>Nvidia</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, and <strong>Tesla</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该组包括这三家公司以及 “七大巨头”——<strong>英伟达</strong>、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>。</p>
</div><p>The Ten Titans make up 38% of the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 0.28%) and offer a more comprehensive way to measure the index's leadership.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这十巨头占据了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC 0.28%）的 38%，提供了一种更全面的方式来衡量该指数的领导地位。</p>
</div><p>Broadcom delivered blowout results and soared to a new all-time high on Sept. 5 after reporting its quarterly earnings. Here's why the pressure is on Oracle, which is slated to report results on Sept. 9, and what the company needs to do to justify its premium valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>博通在 9 月 5 日发布季度财报后，业绩大幅超出预期，股价飙升至历史新高。以下是甲骨文面临压力的原因，该公司定于 9 月 9 日发布财报，以及它需要做些什么来证明其高估值的合理性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxMzEvYWJzdHJhY3QtY29uY2VwdC1vZi10aGUtZGlnaXRhbC10cmFuc2Zvcm1hdGlvbi1zaG93Y2FzaW5nLXRoZS1ncm93aW5nLXJvbGUtYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWktaXMtcGxheWluZy1pbi10ZWNobm9sb2d5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832131%2Fabstract-concept-of-the-digital-transformation-showcasing-the-growing-role-artificial-intelligence-ai-is-playing-in-technology.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Oracle is becoming a major player in cloud computing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>甲骨文正在成为云计算的主要参与者</h2>
</div><p>Oracle is up more than 300% since the start of 2020, largely thanks to the build-out of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2020 年初以来，甲骨文的股价上涨超过 300%，这主要得益于甲骨文云基础设施（OCI）的建设。</p>
</div><p>As a database services company, Oracle previously relied on third-party cloud providers. But OCI changed the game, allowing Oracle to tap into a new revenue stream from its enterprise clients.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为一家数据库服务公司，甲骨文之前依赖第三方云服务提供商。但 OCI 改变了游戏规则，使甲骨文能够从其企业客户那里获得新的收入来源。</p>
</div><p>The decision to scale OCI came at a high cost, but it has redefined Oracle's investment thesis. The key advantage is Oracle's competitive pricing model. OCI is a no-brainer add-on for customers who already use its database services. And because Oracle is a pure-play business-to-business company, it can build its cloud and integrated pricing model around enterprise needs. In comparison, the other major cloud players -- Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud -- have massive consumer-facing segments. So Oracle offers a unique way for investors to bet on cloud computing and enterprise software.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>扩大 OCI 的决定代价不菲，但它重新定义了甲骨文的投资论点。关键优势在于甲骨文的竞争定价模式。对于已经使用其数据库服务的客户来说，OCI 是一个理所当然的附加服务。而且由于甲骨文是一家纯粹的企业对企业公司，它可以围绕企业需求构建其云和集成定价模式。相比之下，其他主要云服务提供商——亚马逊网络服务、微软 Azure 和谷歌云——都有庞大的面向消费者的业务。因此，甲骨文为投资者提供了一种独特的方式来押注云计算和企业软件。</p>
</div><h2>Oracle is building on its cloud momentum</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>甲骨文正在巩固其云计算势头</h2>
</div><p>The key metrics to watch for when Oracle reports earnings are its capital expenditures (capex) and cloud revenue, which encompasses both cloud infrastructure and cloud applications. In fourth-quarter fiscal 2025, which Oracle reported in June, cloud revenue made up 42.1% of total revenue -- illustrating how cloud is truly transforming Oracle's business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文发布财报时需要关注的关键指标是其资本支出（capex）和云收入，包括云基础设施和云应用。在 2025 财年第四季度，甲骨文在 6 月发布的财报中显示，云收入占总收入的 42.1%——这表明云计算确实正在改变甲骨文的业务。</p>
</div><p>For the full fiscal year, Oracle grew total cloud by 24%. In its June earnings release, Oracle said that it expects its growth rates in fiscal 2026 to be &#34;dramatically higher,&#34; accelerating cloud growth to 40%, led by a staggering 70% increase in cloud infrastructure (thanks to OCI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在整个财年中，甲骨文的云总收入增长了 24%。在 6 月的财报中，甲骨文表示，预计 2026 财年的增长率将 “显著提高”，云增长将加速至 40%，其中云基础设施的增长高达惊人的 70%（得益于 OCI）。</p>
</div><p>The upcoming results are crucial to supporting Oracle's ambitious targets and laying the groundwork for the remainder of the fiscal year. If Oracle fails to maintain its cloud growth rates, investors may scrutinize its spending and become concerned about its leveraged balance sheet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即将发布的财报对支持甲骨文的雄心目标和为财年剩余时间奠定基础至关重要。如果甲骨文未能维持其云增长率，投资者可能会审视其支出，并对其杠杆资产负债表产生担忧。</p>
</div><h2>Growth comes at a cost</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>增长是有代价的</h2>
</div><p>The following chart encapsulates the narrative around Oracle stock right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下图表概括了目前甲骨文股票的叙述。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/89ef28ffe1dfd28a4957b0fd06692b83.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/89ef28ffe1dfd28a4957b0fd06692b83.png"/></p>
<p>ORCL data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ORCL 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>The stock is red-hot, but net long-term debt and capex to revenue are also on the rise. Put another way, investors are rewarding Oracle for taking on debt and spending a ton of money on long-term investments, even though its revenue isn't reflecting the payoff of those investments just yet. Investors are giving Oracle the green light to aggressively expand its cloud offerings. But there will come a time when the investments have to convert to bottom-line results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股票热度高涨，但净长期债务和资本支出占收入的比例也在上升。换句话说，尽管其收入尚未反映这些投资的回报，投资者仍在奖励甲骨文承担债务并在长期投资上花费大量资金。投资者正在给予甲骨文积极扩展其云服务的绿灯。但总有一天，这些投资必须转化为底线结果。</p>
</div><p>Analyst consensus estimates reflect this optimistic outlook. They're calling for $6.78 in fiscal 2026 earnings per share (EPS), followed by 20% earnings growth in fiscal 2027 of $8.14 in EPS. For context, Oracle's fiscal 2025 diluted EPS was $4.34, which was close to an all-time high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师的共识预期反映了这种乐观的前景。他们预计 2026 财年的每股收益（EPS）为 6.78 美元，随后在 2027 财年实现 20% 的收益增长，达到每股 8.14 美元。作为参考，甲骨文 2025 财年的稀释每股收益为 4.34 美元，接近历史最高水平。</p>
</div><h2>Approaching Oracle with a long-term mindset</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>以长期思维看待甲骨文</h2>
</div><p>Oracle is a high-risk, high-potential-reward AI and software play. With a stock price of $223 at the time of this writing, Oracle's valuation looks reasonable if it can deliver on earnings estimates for the next couple of years. If Oracle falls short, investors may question whether the spending and debt accumulation are worth it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文是一项高风险、高潜在回报的人工智能和软件投资。根据本文撰写时的股价 223 美元，如果甲骨文能够在未来几年实现收益预期，其估值看起来是合理的。如果甲骨文未能达标，投资者可能会质疑其支出和债务积累是否值得。</p>
</div><p>Oracle's investment thesis is now heavily centered around AI and cloud, and the stock price reflects that with a premium valuation. So investors should only approach the stock if they have a high risk tolerance and a long-term investment time horizon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文的投资论点现在高度集中于人工智能和云计算，股价也因此反映出高估值。因此，投资者只有在具备高风险承受能力和长期投资时间框架的情况下，才应考虑投资该股票。</p>
</div>

这只被称为 “十巨头” 的成长股在 9 月 9 日有很多需要证明的原因