<p>根据 <strong>Tom Lee</strong>，<strong>Fundstrat Global Advisors</strong> 的研究主管和 <strong>Fundstrat Capital</strong> 的首席投资官，<strong>比特币</strong> BTC/USD 可能在年底前从当前水平几乎翻倍，达到$200,000。</p>
<p><strong>发生了什么：</strong> Lee 在 CNBC 上强调了货币政策变化与加密货币表现之间的强关联。</p>
<p>在发布时，比特币的交易价格接近$112,600。</p>
<p>“比特币和像 <strong>以太坊</strong> ETH/USD 这样的加密货币对货币政策非常敏感。所以我认为 9 月 17 日是一个重要的催化剂。加密货币通常在第四季度表现良好。因此，我认为比特币在年底前轻松可以达到 200,000，” 他说。</p>
<p>Lee 将他的看涨预测与美联储的下一个利率决定联系在一起。</p>
<p>他指出，比特币今年停滞不前，因为美联储已经暂停了九个月，称这种暂停在历史上是异常的。</p>
<p>“这一年的暂停……如果你看看宽松周期，这种情况在 1998 年和 2024 年只发生过两次，美联储在九月份开始恢复降息。股票表现非常好。正如你所知，加密货币与股票的波动性相关，” 他补充道。</p>
<p><strong>另请阅读：比特币、以太坊 ETF 在一周内净流入 24.8 亿美元</strong></p>
<p><strong>为什么这很重要：</strong> 在 Lee 看来，宏观背景正在向风险资产倾斜。</p>
<p>他指出债券市场对近期就业数据的反应，显示出较弱的劳动条件，并引发了对年底前近三次降息的预期。</p>
<p>Lee 表示，美联储可能需要做出回应，他认为这将支持商业信心，降低抵押贷款利率，并恢复住房需求。</p>
<p>他还强调，加密货币在第四季度的季节性表现历史上一直很强。除了比特币，Lee 还认为以太坊和小盘股将受益于同样的趋势。</p>
<p>“小盘股也应该像 IWM 那样上涨，但这对与小盘股高度相关的以太坊也非常看涨，” 他说。</p>
<p>尽管股票接近历史高点，Lee 认为投资者情绪仍然异常悲观。</p>
<p>他说，美国个人投资者协会（AAII）对多头与空头的调查已经连续五周为负，他认为这种背景为意外收益创造了空间。</p>
<p>“在历史高点时，投资者是悲观的，我们在机构客户中发现这种怀疑。我认为大多数人都在为 9 月到年底之间的防御性观点做好准备。这就是为什么我认为股市意外上涨，” 他进一步说道。</p>
<p>Lee 对比特币上涨至$200,000 的预测基于美联储宽松、历史上在过去宽松周期中的表现以及尽管市场上涨但投资者仍然谨慎的组合。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Michael Saylor 表示 ‘比特币代表了资本市场的数字转型’，战略增加了 2.17 亿美元的 BTC</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

GBTC

<p>比特币目前的交易价格约为 112,600 美元，Fundstrat Global Advisors 的汤姆·李预测到年底可能会达到 200,000 美元。他将这一潜在的激增归因于货币政策的变化和历史趋势在第四季度的表现。李指出，美联储暂停利率变动创造了一个独特的市场环境，这可能导致加密货币和小型股的显著收益。尽管当前市场处于高位，投资者情绪依然偏向悲观，这表明未来几个月可能会有意外的增长空间</p>

<p><strong>Bitcoin</strong> BTC/USD could nearly double from current levels to $200,000 before year-end, according to <strong>Tom Lee</strong>, head of research at <strong>Fundstrat Global Advisors</strong> and Chief Investment Officer of <strong>Fundstrat Capital</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 <strong>Tom Lee</strong>，<strong>Fundstrat Global Advisors</strong> 的研究主管和 <strong>Fundstrat Capital</strong> 的首席投资官，<strong>比特币</strong> BTC/USD 可能在年底前从当前水平几乎翻倍，达到$200,000。</p>
</div><p><strong>What Happened:</strong> Speaking on CNBC, Lee emphasized the strong link between monetary policy shifts and cryptocurrency performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>发生了什么：</strong> Lee 在 CNBC 上强调了货币政策变化与加密货币表现之间的强关联。</p>
</div><p>At the time of publishing, Bitcoin was trading near $112,600 levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在发布时，比特币的交易价格接近$112,600。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies like <strong>Ethereum</strong> ETH/USD are super sensitive to monetary policy. So I think that September 17th is an important catalyst. Crypto typically does really well in the fourth quarter. So I think Bitcoin can easily get to 200,000 before year end,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“比特币和像 <strong>以太坊</strong> ETH/USD 这样的加密货币对货币政策非常敏感。所以我认为 9 月 17 日是一个重要的催化剂。加密货币通常在第四季度表现良好。因此，我认为比特币在年底前轻松可以达到 200,000，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>Lee connected his bullish forecast to the Federal Reserve's next rate decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lee 将他的看涨预测与美联储的下一个利率决定联系在一起。</p>
</div><p>He noted that Bitcoin has stalled this year because the Fed has been on pause for nine months, calling this pause historically unusual.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他指出，比特币今年停滞不前，因为美联储已经暂停了九个月，称这种暂停在历史上是异常的。</p>
</div><p>&#34;That pause all year… if you look at an easing cycle, that's only happened two other times in 1998 and 2024, where the Fed began to resume cuts in the fourth quarter in September. Equities do really well. As you know, crypto is beta to equity,” he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这一年的暂停……如果你看看宽松周期，这种情况在 1998 年和 2024 年只发生过两次，美联储在九月份开始恢复降息。股票表现非常好。正如你所知，加密货币与股票的波动性相关，” 他补充道。</p>
</div><p><strong>Also Read: Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs Rebound With $2.48 Billion Net Inflows Week</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另请阅读：比特币、以太坊 ETF 在一周内净流入 24.8 亿美元</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Why It Matters:</strong> In Lee's view, the macro backdrop is aligning in favor of risk assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>为什么这很重要：</strong> 在 Lee 看来，宏观背景正在向风险资产倾斜。</p>
</div><p>He pointed to the bond market's reaction to recent jobs data, which showed weaker labor conditions and triggered expectations for nearly three rate cuts by year-end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他指出债券市场对近期就业数据的反应，显示出较弱的劳动条件，并引发了对年底前近三次降息的预期。</p>
</div><p>Lee said the Federal Reserve will likely need to respond, which he believes would support business confidence, ease mortgage rates, and revive housing demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lee 表示，美联储可能需要做出回应，他认为这将支持商业信心，降低抵押贷款利率，并恢复住房需求。</p>
</div><p>He also underscored that crypto's fourth-quarter seasonality has historically been strong. Beyond Bitcoin, Lee sees Ethereum and small-cap stocks as beneficiaries of the same trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他还强调，加密货币在第四季度的季节性表现历史上一直很强。除了比特币，Lee 还认为以太坊和小盘股将受益于同样的趋势。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Small caps should also rally like IWM, but that also is really bullish for Ethereum, which is highly linked to small caps,” he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“小盘股也应该像 IWM 那样上涨，但这对与小盘股高度相关的以太坊也非常看涨，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>Despite equities sitting near record highs, Lee argued that investor sentiment remains unusually bearish.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管股票接近历史高点，Lee 认为投资者情绪仍然异常悲观。</p>
</div><p>He said the American Association of Individual Investors' (AAII) survey of bulls minus bears had been negative for five straight weeks, a backdrop that he believes creates room for surprise gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说，美国个人投资者协会（AAII）对多头与空头的调查已经连续五周为负，他认为这种背景为意外收益创造了空间。</p>
</div><p>&#34;At all time highs, investors are bearish and we find that skepticism among our institutional clients. I think most are kind of bracing for a defensive view between September and year end. That's why I think that the stock market was surprised to the upside,” he further said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在历史高点时，投资者是悲观的，我们在机构客户中发现这种怀疑。我认为大多数人都在为 9 月到年底之间的防御性观点做好准备。这就是为什么我认为股市意外上涨，” 他进一步说道。</p>
</div><p>Lee's call for a sharp rally in Bitcoin to $200,000 rests on the combination of Fed easing, historical performance during past easing cycles, and persistent investor caution despite rising markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lee 对比特币上涨至$200,000 的预测基于美联储宽松、历史上在过去宽松周期中的表现以及尽管市场上涨但投资者仍然谨慎的组合。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Bitcoin Represents ‘A Digital Transformation Of Capital Markets’, Says Michael Saylor As Strategy Adds $217M In BTC</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>Michael Saylor 表示 ‘比特币代表了资本市场的数字转型’，战略增加了 2.17 亿美元的 BTC</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Bitcoin Hits $112,000— But Tom Lee Says $200,000 Might Still Come This Year

- Tom Lee 预测比特币将在年底前涨至 $200,000。  
- 他强调货币政策变化与加密货币表现之间的强关联。  
- 预计美联储将采取降息措施，支持风险资产表现。  

比特币价格已达到 112,000 美元——然而汤姆·李认为，今年价格可能仍会达到 200,000 美元