<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.79%) 在周二的产品发布活动中，凭借基础业务和股票的良好势头而前行。近期股价上涨，这让投资者不禁问道：投资窗口是否已经关闭？</p>
<p>我认为没有。位于库比蒂诺的科技公司生产 iPhone、Mac、iPad 和 Apple Watch，并运营 App Store、Apple Music、Apple TV+、iCloud 和 Apple Pay 等服务，刚刚发布了强劲的夏季更新，进一步支持了看涨的论点。</p>
<p>在七月底，苹果公布了 6 月季度的收入创纪录，并且服务收入达到了历史新高。随着即将到来的 iPhone 更新周期和软件功能更新，现在是重新审视该股票的合理时机。</p>
<p>简而言之：业务正在逐步回归增长，同时更加依赖高利润、经常性收入——这种高利润销售的增长势头看起来可能会持续很长时间，为业务提供强劲的推动力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIzMzUvYXBwbGUtc3RvY2staXMtYS10b3AtYnV5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="350" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIzMzUvYXBwbGUtc3RvY2staXMtYS10b3AtYnV5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>最近的业绩显示出真正的势头</h2>
<p>在 2025 财年的第三季度，苹果的收入同比增长 10%，达到 940 亿美元，稀释后每股收益增长 12%，达到 1.57 美元。管理层指出，6 月季度的总公司收入、iPhone 收入和每股收益均创下新纪录，并表示活跃设备的安装基数达到了历史新高。这一点很重要，因为苹果不断增长的设备覆盖面是服务变现的飞轮。</p>
<p>在 2025 财年第三季度（苹果的季度截至 6 月 28 日），服务继续为公司提供强劲支持。该部门的收入为 274 亿美元，同比增长 13%，创下历史新高。与服务相关的成本仅为 67 亿美元，突显了这一收入流的价值：随着服务在更大设备基础上的扩展，苹果增加了比硬件更具结构性高利润的收入。最终效果是，业务组合越来越倾向于经常性、现金丰富的活动。</p>
<p>同样值得强调的是，苹果的增长正在改善。在 2025 财年第二季度，公司整体收入同比增长 5%；6 月季度的 10% 增长标志着一个显著的提升。</p>
<p>现金生成能力依然强劲。苹果 2025 财年第三季度的经营现金流为 290 亿美元。此外，在 5 月，董事会批准了额外 1000 亿美元的股票回购计划，并将每股股息提高至 0.26 美元。这种组合——加速增长、扩展服务以及大量现金回馈股东——是一个成功的配方。</p>
<h2>刺激因素、风险以及我为何今天看好该股票</h2>
<p>展望未来，苹果创纪录的安装基数是其引擎。每一部 iPhone、iPad、Mac 和 Apple Watch 都为 App Store 购买、订阅和支付等服务创造了多个接触点。随着公司推出新软件和功能——包括今夏强调的 Apple Intelligence 集成——它增加了用户留在苹果生态系统内并在其中消费的理由。周二的活动应该会强化这一叙述，因为公司可能会推出下一代 iPhone 系列、更新的 Apple Watch 型号以及应增强用户参与度的生态系统改进。</p>
<p>股票的估值并不便宜，这也是你会听到的反对意见。然而，向服务的转变、苹果客户忠诚度的持久性以及持续的资本回报无疑为其提供了显著的溢价。增长型股票通常在收入可见性和现金生成改善时，值得更高的市盈率。</p>
<p>当然，业务并非没有风险。设备升级的宏观压力、监管审查以及关键地区的竞争动态都可能对业绩产生影响。</p>
<p>因此，随着收入重新加速、服务创下纪录，以及产品活动能够刺激需求和在庞大的安装基数中增强参与度，苹果是我现在最看好的股票，毫无疑问。如果市场在活动期间或假日季度前后出现波动，我会将其视为增持股票的机会。</p>

苹果

2 倍做多 AAPL ETF - GraniteShares

苹果每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

苹果每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

AAPX

AAPY

APLY

<p>苹果的股票在产品发布活动前正获得动力，最近收入增长了 10%，达到 940 亿美元，每股收益上升了 12%。该公司专注于高利润的服务业务，服务收入为 274 亿美元，同比增长 13%。凭借强大的用户基础和即将发布的产品，苹果尽管面临潜在风险，仍然具备增长潜力。股票的高估值得益于其改善的收入可见性和现金生成能力，使其成为投资者的首选</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -0.79%) heads into Tuesday's product launch event with fresh momentum in both the underlying business and the stock. Shares have climbed recently, prompting a fair question for investors: Did the investment window already close?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -0.79%) 在周二的产品发布活动中，凭借基础业务和股票的良好势头而前行。近期股价上涨，这让投资者不禁问道：投资窗口是否已经关闭？</p>
</div><p>I don't think so. The Cupertino-based tech company that makes the iPhone, Mac, iPad, and Apple Watch -- and runs services like the App Store, Apple Music, Apple TV+, iCloud, and Apple Pay -- just put up a strong summer update that bolsters the bull case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为没有。位于库比蒂诺的科技公司生产 iPhone、Mac、iPad 和 Apple Watch，并运营 App Store、Apple Music、Apple TV+、iCloud 和 Apple Pay 等服务，刚刚发布了强劲的夏季更新，进一步支持了看涨的论点。</p>
</div><p>In late July, Apple delivered a June-quarter revenue record and an all-time high in services revenue. And with an upcoming iPhone cycle and feature updates across software, now's a sensible time to revisit the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在七月底，苹果公布了 6 月季度的收入创纪录，并且服务收入达到了历史新高。随着即将到来的 iPhone 更新周期和软件功能更新，现在是重新审视该股票的合理时机。</p>
</div><p>The short version: The business is nudging back toward growth while leaning more on high-margin, recurring revenue -- and this tailwind of growing high-margin sales looks like one that could persist for a very long time, providing a powerful lift to the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简而言之：业务正在逐步回归增长，同时更加依赖高利润、经常性收入——这种高利润销售的增长势头看起来可能会持续很长时间，为业务提供强劲的推动力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIzMzUvYXBwbGUtc3RvY2staXMtYS10b3AtYnV5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832335%2Fapple-stock-is-a-top-buy.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Recent results show real momentum</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最近的业绩显示出真正的势头</h2>
</div><p>In the third quarter of 2025, Apple's revenue rose 10% year over year to $94 billion, with diluted earnings per share up 12% to $1.57. Management called out June-quarter records for total company revenue, iPhone revenue, and earnings per share -- and said the installed base of active devices reached a new all-time high. That matters because Apple's growing device footprint is the flywheel behind services monetization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 财年的第三季度，苹果的收入同比增长 10%，达到 940 亿美元，稀释后每股收益增长 12%，达到 1.57 美元。管理层指出，6 月季度的总公司收入、iPhone 收入和每股收益均创下新纪录，并表示活跃设备的安装基数达到了历史新高。这一点很重要，因为苹果不断增长的设备覆盖面是服务变现的飞轮。</p>
</div><p>Services continued to do the heavy lifting for the company in fiscal Q3 (Apple's quarter ending June 28). The segment generated $27.4 billion in revenue, up 13% year over year and an all-time high. Costs tied to services were just $6.7 billion, underscoring why this stream is so valuable: As services scale across a larger base of devices, Apple adds revenue that carries structurally higher margins than hardware. The net effect is a business mix increasingly tilted more toward recurring, cash-rich activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 财年第三季度（苹果的季度截至 6 月 28 日），服务继续为公司提供强劲支持。该部门的收入为 274 亿美元，同比增长 13%，创下历史新高。与服务相关的成本仅为 67 亿美元，突显了这一收入流的价值：随着服务在更大设备基础上的扩展，苹果增加了比硬件更具结构性高利润的收入。最终效果是，业务组合越来越倾向于经常性、现金丰富的活动。</p>
</div><p>Also worth highlighting, Apple's growth is improving. In its fiscal second quarter of 2025, companywide revenue was up 5% year over year; the June quarter's 10% growth marks a significant step up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样值得强调的是，苹果的增长正在改善。在 2025 财年第二季度，公司整体收入同比增长 5%；6 月季度的 10% 增长标志着一个显著的提升。</p>
</div><p>Cash generation remains robust, too. Apple's fiscal third-quarter operating cash flow was $29 billion. Additionally, in May, the board authorized an additional $100 billion share repurchase program alongside a dividend that was lifted to $0.26 per share. That combination -- accelerating growth, expanding services, and big sums of cash being returned to shareholders -- is a winning recipe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现金生成能力依然强劲。苹果 2025 财年第三季度的经营现金流为 290 亿美元。此外，在 5 月，董事会批准了额外 1000 亿美元的股票回购计划，并将每股股息提高至 0.26 美元。这种组合——加速增长、扩展服务以及大量现金回馈股东——是一个成功的配方。</p>
</div><h2>Catalysts, risks, and why I like the stock today</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>刺激因素、风险以及我为何今天看好该股票</h2>
</div><p>Looking ahead, Apple's record installed base is the engine. Each iPhone, iPad, Mac, and Apple Watch creates multiple touchpoints for services like App Store purchases, subscriptions, and payments. As the company rolls out new software and features -- including Apple Intelligence integrations highlighted this summer -- it increases the reasons for users to stick with Apple and to spend more within its ecosystem. Tuesday's event should reinforce that narrative, as the company will likely bring to market the next iPhone family, updated Apple Watch models, and ecosystem enhancements that should fuel engagement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来，苹果创纪录的安装基数是其引擎。每一部 iPhone、iPad、Mac 和 Apple Watch 都为 App Store 购买、订阅和支付等服务创造了多个接触点。随着公司推出新软件和功能——包括今夏强调的 Apple Intelligence 集成——它增加了用户留在苹果生态系统内并在其中消费的理由。周二的活动应该会强化这一叙述，因为公司可能会推出下一代 iPhone 系列、更新的 Apple Watch 型号以及应增强用户参与度的生态系统改进。</p>
</div><p>The stock's valuation isn't a bargain, and that's the pushback you'll hear. However, the mix shift toward services, the durability of Apple's customer loyalty, and consistent capital returns arguably justify a significant premium. Growth stocks often merit higher price-to-earnings multiples when revenue visibility and cash generation are improving.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票的估值并不便宜，这也是你会听到的反对意见。然而，向服务的转变、苹果客户忠诚度的持久性以及持续的资本回报无疑为其提供了显著的溢价。增长型股票通常在收入可见性和现金生成改善时，值得更高的市盈率。</p>
</div><p>The business, of course, is not immune to risks. Macro pressure on device upgrades, regulatory scrutiny, and competitive dynamics in key geographies can all weigh on results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，业务并非没有风险。设备升级的宏观压力、监管审查以及关键地区的竞争动态都可能对业绩产生影响。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, with revenue reaccelerating, services setting records, and a product event that can stoke demand and engagement across a massive installed base, Apple is my top stock to buy right now, bar none. If the market gives you volatility around the event or into the holiday quarter, I'd view that as an opportunity to add shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，随着收入重新加速、服务创下纪录，以及产品活动能够刺激需求和在庞大的安装基数中增强参与度，苹果是我现在最看好的股票，毫无疑问。如果市场在活动期间或假日季度前后出现波动，我会将其视为增持股票的机会。</p>
</div>

Why Apple Is My Top Stock to Buy Right Now

- 苹果公司在 2025 年第三季度实现收入 94 亿美元，同比增长 10%。  
- 服务部门收入达 274 亿美元，创历史新高，推动公司增长。  
- 新产品发布将进一步增强用户粘性，提升市场需求。

为什么苹果是我目前最值得购买的股票