<p><strong>阿里巴巴集团</strong>(BABA 4.14%) 在过去几年中考验了投资者的耐心。从监管打压到消费支出放缓，以及来自 <strong>拼多多</strong> 和 <strong>美团</strong> 的竞争加剧，该公司从中国无可争议的科技冠军沦为许多投资者放弃的股票。</p>
<p>但最新的业绩结果表明，有理由变得更加乐观。尽管风险依然存在，阿里巴巴在对长期重要的领域显示出早期的战略进展迹象。以下是投资者应重新关注的三个理由。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxNjgvc21pbGluZy1wZW9wbGUtb24tY291Y2gtc2hvcC1vbmxpbmUtaW4tY2hpbmEtc291cmNlLXBpbmR1b2R1by5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="500" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxNjgvc21pbGluZy1wZW9wbGUtb24tY291Y2gtc2hvcC1vbmxpbmUtaW4tY2hpbmEtc291cmNlLXBpbmR1b2R1by5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>1. 云计算和人工智能驱动真正的增长</h2>
<p>多年来，阿里巴巴云计算让投资者失望。尽管是中国市场的领导者，但增长放缓，利润难以实现。这一叙述开始发生变化。</p>
<p>在 2025 年 6 月季度（2026 财年第一季度），阿里巴巴报告云收入同比增长 26%，达到 334 亿元人民币（47 亿美元），显著超过公司整体收入增长的 10%。更值得注意的是，管理层披露与人工智能（AI）相关的收入连续第八个季度以三位数的速度增长，现在占阿里巴巴云外部收入的 20% 以上。</p>
<p>这不仅仅是反弹——这是结构性的转变。AI 工作负载比传统托管更需要计算资源，这意味着每个客户的收入更高，利润更好，客户关系更紧密。凭借其大型语言模型——通义千问，以及 AI 驱动的企业工具，阿里巴巴不再仅仅是云基础设施提供商。它正在成为一个 AI 平台，这可能证明是一个持久的增长引擎。</p>
<h2>2. 通过国内 AI 芯片构建战略韧性</h2>
<p>另一个乐观的理由是阿里巴巴在半导体设计上的投资。报道称，该公司正在测试自己的 AI 推理芯片，这是在出口限制下减少对美国技术依赖的关键一步。</p>
<p>需要明确的是，阿里巴巴并不打算取代 <strong>英伟达</strong> 来训练大规模模型。但推理——在现实应用中运行 AI 模型——是使用（和货币化）发生的主要领域。通过开发自己的推理芯片，阿里巴巴正在对供应链风险进行对冲，并确保能够在不完全受制于地缘政治紧张局势的情况下扩展 AI 服务。</p>
<p>这一战略很重要，因为它保护了阿里巴巴在其各项业务中商业化 AI 的能力——从云计算到电子商务和物流。尽管目前没有计划将这些芯片提供给外部客户，但没有理由认为未来不能改变，从而开启一个新的潜在收入来源。</p>
<p>换句话说，阿里巴巴对国内芯片的投资既是防御性的，也是潜在的进攻性举措，投资者不应忽视。</p>
<h2>3. 情绪转变的鼓舞人心的迹象</h2>
<p>最后，情绪可能正在慢慢转向阿里巴巴的有利方向。在最新业绩发布后，<strong>瑞穗</strong>、<strong>伯恩斯坦</strong> 和 <strong>花旗</strong> 都提高了他们的目标价或重申了买入/跑赢大盘的评级，指出云增长和 AI 采用是关键催化剂。</p>
<p>分析师的升级并不保证平稳的复苏。事实上，阿里巴巴还有很多工作要做，以重新获得长期投资者的信心，例如在其电子商务业务中恢复可持续增长，减少其他公司的亏损，以及发展其他业务，如钉钉和娱乐。</p>
<p>但当华尔街在经历多年负面情绪后开始重新评估一只股票时，通常意味着投资者对公司未来潜力的看法发生了变化。如果阿里巴巴能够在接下来的几个季度中执行到位，股票价格很可能会开始反映这些积极的发展。</p>
<p>从这个角度来看，阿里巴巴的股票交易价格与销售比率仅为 2.4 倍，这只是其峰值估值 15.5 倍的一小部分。因此，现在持有该股票提供了下行保护和上行机会。</p>
<h2>对投资者的意义</h2>
<p>阿里巴巴远非无风险。电子商务竞争依然激烈，中国的宏观经济背景仍然不确定。</p>
<p>但在噪音之下，阿里巴巴显示出令人鼓舞的迹象：其云业务因 AI 而获得动力，正在通过国内芯片开发构建战略韧性，情绪终于开始回暖。</p>
<p>对于长期投资者而言，这种组合可能是多年来对持有阿里巴巴股票保持谨慎乐观的最明确理由。</p>

阿里巴巴

阿里巴巴-W

2 倍做多阿里巴巴 ETF - KraneShares

BABO

2 倍做多 BABA ETF - GraniteShares

<p>阿里巴巴集团面临挑战，但最近的业绩显示出复苏的潜力。主要增长动力包括云收入同比增长 26% 以及与人工智能相关的收入实现三位数增长。该公司还在投资国内人工智能芯片，以减少对美国技术的依赖。分析师们正在提高目标价格，表明情绪的转变。尽管仍存在持续风险，阿里巴巴的云业务势头、芯片开发以及改善的投资者前景为长期投资者带来了谨慎的乐观情绪</p>

<p><strong>Alibaba Group</strong>(BABA 4.14%) has tested investors' patience over the past few years. From regulatory crackdowns to slowing consumer spending and intensifying competition from <strong>Pinduoduo</strong> and <strong>Meituan</strong>, the company went from China's undisputed tech champion to a stock many investors gave up on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>阿里巴巴集团</strong>(BABA 4.14%) 在过去几年中考验了投资者的耐心。从监管打压到消费支出放缓，以及来自 <strong>拼多多</strong> 和 <strong>美团</strong> 的竞争加剧，该公司从中国无可争议的科技冠军沦为许多投资者放弃的股票。</p>
</div><p>But the latest results suggest there are reasons to turn more optimistic. While risks remain, Alibaba is showing early signs of strategic progress in areas that matter for the long run. Here are three reasons investors should take another look.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但最新的业绩结果表明，有理由变得更加乐观。尽管风险依然存在，阿里巴巴在对长期重要的领域显示出早期的战略进展迹象。以下是投资者应重新关注的三个理由。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzIxNjgvc21pbGluZy1wZW9wbGUtb24tY291Y2gtc2hvcC1vbmxpbmUtaW4tY2hpbmEtc291cmNlLXBpbmR1b2R1by5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F832168%2Fsmiling-people-on-couch-shop-online-in-china-source-pinduoduo.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>1. Cloud and AI are driving real growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 云计算和人工智能驱动真正的增长</h2>
</div><p>For years, Alibaba Cloud was a disappointment to investors. Despite being China's market leader, growth slowed and profits remained elusive. That narrative is beginning to change.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多年来，阿里巴巴云计算让投资者失望。尽管是中国市场的领导者，但增长放缓，利润难以实现。这一叙述开始发生变化。</p>
</div><p>In its June 2025 quarter (fiscal Q1 2026), Alibaba reported cloud revenue up 26% year over year to RMB 33.4 billion ($4.7 billion), significantly outpacing the company's overall revenue growth of 10%. Even more telling, management disclosed that artificial intelligence (AI)-related revenue grew at triple-digit rates for the eighth consecutive quarter, and now accounts for more than 20% of Alibaba Cloud's external revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年 6 月季度（2026 财年第一季度），阿里巴巴报告云收入同比增长 26%，达到 334 亿元人民币（47 亿美元），显著超过公司整体收入增长的 10%。更值得注意的是，管理层披露与人工智能（AI）相关的收入连续第八个季度以三位数的速度增长，现在占阿里巴巴云外部收入的 20% 以上。</p>
</div><p>That's not just a rebound -- it's a structural shift. AI workloads are far more compute-intensive than traditional hosting, which means higher revenue per customer, better margins, and stickier client relationships. With its large language model, Tongyi Qianwen, along with AI-powered enterprise tools, Alibaba is no longer just a cloud infrastructure provider. It's becoming an AI platform, which could prove to be a durable growth engine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这不仅仅是反弹——这是结构性的转变。AI 工作负载比传统托管更需要计算资源，这意味着每个客户的收入更高，利润更好，客户关系更紧密。凭借其大型语言模型——通义千问，以及 AI 驱动的企业工具，阿里巴巴不再仅仅是云基础设施提供商。它正在成为一个 AI 平台，这可能证明是一个持久的增长引擎。</p>
</div><h2>2. Building strategic resilience with domestic AI chips</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 通过国内 AI 芯片构建战略韧性</h2>
</div><p>Another reason for optimism is Alibaba's investment in semiconductor design. Reports indicate the company is testing its own AI inference chip, a critical step in reducing dependence on U.S. technology amid export restrictions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个乐观的理由是阿里巴巴在半导体设计上的投资。报道称，该公司正在测试自己的 AI 推理芯片，这是在出口限制下减少对美国技术依赖的关键一步。</p>
</div><p>To be clear, Alibaba isn't about to replace <strong>Nvidia</strong> for training large-scale models. But inference -- running AI models in real-world applications -- is where much of the usage (and monetization) occurs. By developing its own inference chips, Alibaba is hedging against supply chain risks and ensuring it can scale AI services without being entirely at the mercy of geopolitical tensions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要明确的是，阿里巴巴并不打算取代 <strong>英伟达</strong> 来训练大规模模型。但推理——在现实应用中运行 AI 模型——是使用（和货币化）发生的主要领域。通过开发自己的推理芯片，阿里巴巴正在对供应链风险进行对冲，并确保能够在不完全受制于地缘政治紧张局势的情况下扩展 AI 服务。</p>
</div><p>This strategy matters because it protects Alibaba's ability to commercialize AI across its businesses -- from cloud computing to e-commerce and logistics. And while there is no plan to offer these chips to external customers, there is no reason to think that this cannot change in the future, opening up a new potential revenue source.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一战略很重要，因为它保护了阿里巴巴在其各项业务中商业化 AI 的能力——从云计算到电子商务和物流。尽管目前没有计划将这些芯片提供给外部客户，但没有理由认为未来不能改变，从而开启一个新的潜在收入来源。</p>
</div><p>In other words, Alibaba's investment in domestic chips is both a defensive and potentially offensive move that investors should not overlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，阿里巴巴对国内芯片的投资既是防御性的，也是潜在的进攻性举措，投资者不应忽视。</p>
</div><h2>3. Encouraging signs of a sentiment shift</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 情绪转变的鼓舞人心的迹象</h2>
</div><p>Finally, sentiment may be slowly turning in Alibaba's favor. Following the latest results, <strong>Mizuho</strong>, <strong>Bernstein</strong>, and <strong>Citi</strong> all raised their price targets or reiterated buy/outperform ratings, pointing to cloud growth and AI adoption as key catalysts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，情绪可能正在慢慢转向阿里巴巴的有利方向。在最新业绩发布后，<strong>瑞穗</strong>、<strong>伯恩斯坦</strong> 和 <strong>花旗</strong> 都提高了他们的目标价或重申了买入/跑赢大盘的评级，指出云增长和 AI 采用是关键催化剂。</p>
</div><p>Analysts' upgrades don't guarantee a smooth recovery. In fact, Alibaba has plenty more to do to regain long-term investors' confidence, such as returning to sustainable growth in its e-commerce business, reducing the losses of its other companies, and growing its other ventures, such as Ding Talk and entertainment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师的升级并不保证平稳的复苏。事实上，阿里巴巴还有很多工作要做，以重新获得长期投资者的信心，例如在其电子商务业务中恢复可持续增长，减少其他公司的亏损，以及发展其他业务，如钉钉和娱乐。</p>
</div><p>But when Wall Street begins to rerate a stock after years of negativity, it often signals a shift in how investors view the company's future potential. If Alibaba can execute in the coming quarters, there's a good chance that the stock price may start to reflect these positive developments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但当华尔街在经历多年负面情绪后开始重新评估一只股票时，通常意味着投资者对公司未来潜力的看法发生了变化。如果阿里巴巴能够在接下来的几个季度中执行到位，股票价格很可能会开始反映这些积极的发展。</p>
</div><p>For perspective, Alibaba's stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of just 2.4 times, which is just a fraction of its peak valuation of 15.5 times. So, owning the stock now offers downside protection, as well as upside opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从这个角度来看，阿里巴巴的股票交易价格与销售比率仅为 2.4 倍，这只是其峰值估值 15.5 倍的一小部分。因此，现在持有该股票提供了下行保护和上行机会。</p>
</div><h2>What it means for investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对投资者的意义</h2>
</div><p>Alibaba is far from risk-free. Competition in e-commerce remains fierce, and China's macroeconomic backdrop is still uncertain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴远非无风险。电子商务竞争依然激烈，中国的宏观经济背景仍然不确定。</p>
</div><p>But beneath the noise, Alibaba is showing encouraging signs: Its cloud business is gaining momentum thanks to AI, it's building strategic resilience with domestic chip development, and sentiment is finally beginning to thaw.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在噪音之下，阿里巴巴显示出令人鼓舞的迹象：其云业务因 AI 而获得动力，正在通过国内芯片开发构建战略韧性，情绪终于开始回暖。</p>
</div><p>For long-term investors, that combination may be the clearest reason in years to be cautiously optimistic about holding Alibaba stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于长期投资者而言，这种组合可能是多年来对持有阿里巴巴股票保持谨慎乐观的最明确理由。</p>
</div>

Why I'm Cautiously Optimistic About Alibaba Stock

- 阿里巴巴的云计算和人工智能业务正在实现显著增长。  
- 公司正在开发国内 AI 芯片，以减少对美国技术的依赖。  
- 投资者情绪逐渐改善，分析师对阿里巴巴的评级上调。  

为什么我对阿里巴巴股票持谨慎乐观态度