<p>美国劳工统计局令人震惊的 91.1 万个就业岗位下调修正，促使总统 <strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 再次抨击联邦储备委员会，称其在应对经济形势上严重滞后——质疑是否已经为修复损害太晚。</p><p>在周二的 Truth Social 上，特朗普指责中央银行在后疫情复苏初期未能及时关注通胀和劳动趋势。</p><p>特朗普表示：&#34;如果美联储遵循我们发布的内容，他们应该在 2021 年初就提高利率。&#34;</p><p>&#34;整个组织都已经崩溃。需要进行修复。他们需要使用现代的信息来源。&#34;</p><p>特朗普抨击美联储主席 <strong>杰罗姆·鲍威尔</strong> 的双重任务框架——同时针对通胀和就业——称其过时，表示&#34;太低，太僵化，&#34;并且基于&#34;滞后数年的数据。&#34;</p><p>特朗普还拒绝了亿万富翁 <strong>肯·格里芬</strong> 对美联储独立性的辩护，称：&#34;我们认为无能比捍卫理论上的独立性更重要。&#34;</p><p>与此同时，经济学家和投资者也在忙于重新评估美国劳动市场的健康状况——以及这对美联储政策的影响。</p><p>但随着尘埃落定，出现了两种截然不同的解读。</p><h2>‘灾难的配方’</h2><p>风险投资家和 Social Capital 首席执行官 <strong>查马斯·帕利哈皮提亚</strong> 支持特朗普对美联储的批评。</p><p><strong>帕利哈皮提亚</strong> 在社交媒体 X 上表示：&#34;我们现在已经完全滞后于经济周期，进入了 ‘太晚’ 的阶段。&#34;</p><p>他补充说，美联储&#34;实际上没有超出初步降息的计划，&#34;呼吁彻底重新思考美国的货币政策制定方式。</p><p>他呼吁彻底改革美国货币政策的制定方式，敦促转向实时、透明发布的数据。</p><p>在另一条帖子中，他将美联储形容为&#34;完全没有能力在 2025 年如此动态和复杂的美国经济中制定货币政策，&#34;并补充说其依赖于&#34;无用和错误&#34;的数据是&#34;灾难的配方。&#34;</p><p>就在 BLS 修正的两天前，帕利哈皮提亚将其与 2008 年进行了尖锐的比较。他表示：&#34;最明显的例子是在全球金融危机前——他们完全搞错了就业形势，保持不变，然后不得不匆忙应对。我们又回到了这里。&#34;</p><p>他认为，BLS 的数据&#34;过于无菌和缓慢&#34;，无法反映快速变化的劳动市场，并警告说美联储过时的工具导致了可避免的政策错误。</p><h2>‘整体经济表现良好’</h2><p><strong>彼得·威廉姆斯</strong>，22V Research 的分析师，从不同的角度看待这些数据。</p><p>虽然他强调了工资单修正的规模——称其为&#34;更加悲观&#34;——但他也指出，这并没有从根本上改变美国经济的整体韧性，尽管在不断演变。</p><p>在周二分享的一份报告中，他表示，在工资单数据被高估的同一时间段内，大多数劳动市场松弛的指标——如失业救济申请、消费数据和企业收益——基本保持稳定。</p><p>威廉姆斯表示：&#34;重要的是要记住，这些修正并没有改变的内容：家庭调查、税收扣除、失业救济申请或企业报告的内容。&#34;</p><p>他补充道：&#34;尽管经历了所有冲击，整体经济表现良好。&#34;</p><p>在他看来，工资单修正反映了特定行业的重新调整——特别是在批发贸易、科技和白领服务领域——而不是系统性的劳动市场疲软。</p><p>最大的削减发生在休闲和酒店业、零售业和专业服务业，这些行业在疫情期间及之后经历了过热的招聘。</p><h2>华尔街再次创下新高</h2><p>尽管围绕美联储和经济状况的噪音不断，华尔街却没有表现出任何担忧的迹象。</p><p>道琼斯工业平均指数——由 <strong>SPDR 道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>DIA 跟踪——上涨 0.5%，收于创纪录的 45,740 点。</p><p>标准普尔 500 指数——由 <strong>先锋标准普尔 500 ETF</strong>VOO 跟踪——上涨 0.24%，收于 6,513 点，同样创下新高。与此同时，纳斯达克 100 指数——由 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1</strong>QQQ 复制——上涨 0.4%，当天收于 23,850 点，突显出市场在政策不确定性加剧的情况下依然保持韧性。</p><ul><li><strong>这只债券 ETF 的狂野反弹回响着疫情市场的混乱</strong></li></ul><p><em>照片：来自 Shutterstock 的 Joey Sussman</em></p>

特朗普媒体科技集团

<p>特朗普批评美联储对就业数据进行大幅下调，修正幅度达到 911,000 个职位，称其过时且在应对通胀和劳动趋势方面无效。他认为美联储的双重使命框架过于僵化，基于过时的数据。虽然风险投资家 Chamath Palihapitiya 支持特朗普的观点，呼吁对货币政策进行全面改革，但分析师 Peter Williams 则提供了相反的看法，认为这些修正反映的是特定行业的变化，而非系统性弱点。尽管存在这些担忧，华尔街仍然持续创下历史新高，显示出市场在不确定性中表现出的韧性</p>

<p>The stunning 911,000-job downward revision from the Bureau of Labor Statistics has prompted President <strong>Donald Trump</strong> to once again slam the Federal Reserve as dangerously behind the curve—questioning whether it's already too late to fix the damage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国劳工统计局令人震惊的 91.1 万个就业岗位下调修正，促使总统 <strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 再次抨击联邦储备委员会，称其在应对经济形势上严重滞后——质疑是否已经为修复损害太晚。</p>
</div><p>In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump blamed the central bank for missing inflation and labor trends early in the post-COVID recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周二的 Truth Social 上，特朗普指责中央银行在后疫情复苏初期未能及时关注通胀和劳动趋势。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If the Fed had followed what we published, they would have raised rates in early 2021,&#34; Trump said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普表示：&#34;如果美联储遵循我们发布的内容，他们应该在 2021 年初就提高利率。&#34;</p>
</div><p>&#34;The entire organization is broken. It needs to be fixed. They need to use modern sources of information.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;整个组织都已经崩溃。需要进行修复。他们需要使用现代的信息来源。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Trump slammed Fed Chair <strong>Jerome Powell</strong>'s dual-mandate framework—targeting both inflation and employment—as outdated, saying it's &#34;too low, too rigid,&#34; and based on &#34;data that's years delayed.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普抨击美联储主席 <strong>杰罗姆·鲍威尔</strong> 的双重任务框架——同时针对通胀和就业——称其过时，表示&#34;太低，太僵化，&#34;并且基于&#34;滞后数年的数据。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Trump also rejected billionaire <strong>Ken Griffin</strong>'s defense of Fed independence, saying, &#34;We think incompetence is more important than to defend theoretical independence.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普还拒绝了亿万富翁 <strong>肯·格里芬</strong> 对美联储独立性的辩护，称：&#34;我们认为无能比捍卫理论上的独立性更重要。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, economists and investors are also scrambling to reassess the health of the U.S. labor market—and what it means for Federal Reserve policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，经济学家和投资者也在忙于重新评估美国劳动市场的健康状况——以及这对美联储政策的影响。</p>
</div><p>But as the dust settles, two sharply different interpretations are emerging.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着尘埃落定，出现了两种截然不同的解读。</p>
</div><h2>‘A Recipe For Disaster’</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>‘灾难的配方’</h2>
</div><p>Venture capitalist and Social Capital CEO <strong>Chamath Palihapitiya</strong> backed Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>风险投资家和 Social Capital 首席执行官 <strong>查马斯·帕利哈皮提亚</strong> 支持特朗普对美联储的批评。</p>
</div><p>“We're now firmly behind the curve and in the ‘too late' part of the cycle,&#34; <strong>Palihapitiya</strong> said on social media X.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>帕利哈皮提亚</strong> 在社交媒体 X 上表示：&#34;我们现在已经完全滞后于经济周期，进入了 ‘太晚’ 的阶段。&#34;</p>
</div><p>He added that the Fed &#34;doesn't really have a plan beyond an initial cut,&#34; calling for a total rethink of how the U.S. sets monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充说，美联储&#34;实际上没有超出初步降息的计划，&#34;呼吁彻底重新思考美国的货币政策制定方式。</p>
</div><p>He called for a complete overhaul of how U.S. monetary policy is set, urging a shift toward real-time, transparently published data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他呼吁彻底改革美国货币政策的制定方式，敦促转向实时、透明发布的数据。</p>
</div><p>In a separate post, he described the Fed as &#34;woefully ill-equipped to set monetary policy in an economy as dynamic and complicated as the U.S. in 2025,&#34; adding that its reliance on &#34;useless and wrong&#34; data is a &#34;recipe for disaster.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在另一条帖子中，他将美联储形容为&#34;完全没有能力在 2025 年如此动态和复杂的美国经济中制定货币政策，&#34;并补充说其依赖于&#34;无用和错误&#34;的数据是&#34;灾难的配方。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Just two days before the BLS revisions, Palihapitiya drew a sharp comparison to 2008. &#34;The most egregious example was going into the GFC—they completely blew the jobs picture, stayed pat, and then had to scramble. Here we are again.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在 BLS 修正的两天前，帕利哈皮提亚将其与 2008 年进行了尖锐的比较。他表示：&#34;最明显的例子是在全球金融危机前——他们完全搞错了就业形势，保持不变，然后不得不匆忙应对。我们又回到了这里。&#34;</p>
</div><p>He argued that the BLS data is &#34;too sterile and slow&#34; to reflect a rapidly changing labor market, and warned that the Fed's outdated tools are leading to preventable policy mistakes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他认为，BLS 的数据&#34;过于无菌和缓慢&#34;，无法反映快速变化的劳动市场，并警告说美联储过时的工具导致了可避免的政策错误。</p>
</div><h2>‘Topline Economy Has Done So Well’</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>‘整体经济表现良好’</h2>
</div><p><strong>Peter Williams</strong>, analyst at 22V Research, sees the data through a different lens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>彼得·威廉姆斯</strong>，22V Research 的分析师，从不同的角度看待这些数据。</p>
</div><p>While he highlighted the scale of the payroll revision—calling it &#34;much more pessimistic&#34;—he also indicated that it doesn't fundamentally alter the broader picture of a resilient, albeit evolving, U.S. economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然他强调了工资单修正的规模——称其为&#34;更加悲观&#34;——但他也指出，这并没有从根本上改变美国经济的整体韧性，尽管在不断演变。</p>
</div><p>In a note shared Tuesday, he stated that most measures of labor market slack—such as jobless claims, spending data, and corporate earnings—were largely stable during the same time frame that the payroll data was overstated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周二分享的一份报告中，他表示，在工资单数据被高估的同一时间段内，大多数劳动市场松弛的指标——如失业救济申请、消费数据和企业收益——基本保持稳定。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It's important to remember what these revisions do not change: the household survey, tax withholding, jobless claims, or what corporations are reporting,&#34; Williams said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威廉姆斯表示：&#34;重要的是要记住，这些修正并没有改变的内容：家庭调查、税收扣除、失业救济申请或企业报告的内容。&#34;</p>
</div><p>&#34;The topline economy has done well despite all the shocks,&#34; he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充道：&#34;尽管经历了所有冲击，整体经济表现良好。&#34;</p>
</div><p>In his view, the payroll revisions reflect sector-specific realignments—particularly in wholesale trade, tech, and white-collar services—rather than systemic labor market weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在他看来，工资单修正反映了特定行业的重新调整——特别是在批发贸易、科技和白领服务领域——而不是系统性的劳动市场疲软。</p>
</div><p>The most substantial cuts were in leisure and hospitality, retail, and professional services, all sectors that had seen overheated hiring during and after the pandemic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最大的削减发生在休闲和酒店业、零售业和专业服务业，这些行业在疫情期间及之后经历了过热的招聘。</p>
</div><h2>Wall Street Notches Record Highs Again</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>华尔街再次创下新高</h2>
</div><p>Despite all the noise surrounding the Fed and the state of the economy, Wall Street showed no signs of concern.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管围绕美联储和经济状况的噪音不断，华尔街却没有表现出任何担忧的迹象。</p>
</div><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average – as tracked by the <strong>SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong> DIA – climbed 0.5% to close at a record 45,740 points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>道琼斯工业平均指数——由 <strong>SPDR 道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>DIA 跟踪——上涨 0.5%，收于创纪录的 45,740 点。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 – tracked by the <strong>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</strong> VOO – rose 0.24% to finish at 6,513 points, also marking a new all-time high. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 – as replicated by the <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1</strong> QQQ – added 0.4%, ending the day at 23,850 points—underscoring just how resilient the market remains in the face of mounting policy uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 指数——由 <strong>先锋标准普尔 500 ETF</strong>VOO 跟踪——上涨 0.24%，收于 6,513 点，同样创下新高。与此同时，纳斯达克 100 指数——由 <strong>Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1</strong>QQQ 复制——上涨 0.4%，当天收于 23,850 点，突显出市场在政策不确定性加剧的情况下依然保持韧性。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>This Bond ETF’s Wild Rally Echoes The Pandemic Market Chaos</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>这只债券 ETF 的狂野反弹回响着疫情市场的混乱</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Photo: Joey Sussman from Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片：来自 Shutterstock 的 Joey Sussman</em></p>
</div>

Trump Slams Fed After Historic Jobs Revision—Is It 'Too Late' To Fix It?

- 美国劳工统计局下调 911,000 个就业岗位数据，引发特朗普对美联储的批评。  
- 特朗普认为美联储未能及时应对通胀和劳动力趋势，需进行改革。  
- 尽管数据修正，华尔街仍创下新高，显示市场韧性。

特朗普在历史性就业数据修正后抨击美联储——现在修正是否 ‘为时已晚’？