<p>美国生产者价格意外大幅下跌，增强了降息的预期，但由于周三即将公布消费者价格指数，投资者需要为可能更顽固的通胀形势做好准备。</p>
<p>经济学家预测，8 月份的消费者价格指数将显示年通胀率上升至 2.9%，高于 7 月份的 2.7%。如果得到确认，这将是自 2025 年 1 月以来的最高年增速。</p>
<p>剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心通胀率预计将保持在 3.1%，这表明潜在的价格压力仍远高于美联储可接受的目标。</p>
<h2>PPI 意外提升降息预期</h2>
<p>低于预期的 8 月份生产者价格指数增强了市场对美联储将在下周开始降息的信心。</p>
<p>整体 PPI 环比下降 0.1%，与预期的 0.3% 上升相悖。年率降至 2.6%，远低于 3.3% 的预测。核心 PPI 也环比下降 0.1%，年率从 3.4% 降至 2.8%。</p>
<p>“这份低于预期且积极的 PPI 报告证实了我们认为 FOMC 将在下周至少降息 25 个基点的观点，” 蓝筹日报的首席技术策略师 Larry Tentarelli 表示。“在我们看来，降息 50 个基点会更有效，但这尚未被市场定价。”</p>
<p>根据 CME FedWatch 工具，交易员对下周三会议降息 25 个基点的概率赋予了 89.8% 的可能性，而降息 50 个基点的可能性仅为 10.2%。</p>
<h2>另一个热通胀报告即将来临，经济学家警告</h2>
<p>在高盛，经济学家 <strong>Jessica Rindels</strong> 预测 8 月份的消费者价格指数报告将高于预期，预计核心通胀将上升 0.36%，略高于 0.3% 的共识。这将使年核心通胀率达到 3.13%。</p>
<p>Rindels 预计二手车价格将上涨 1.2%，原因是拍卖价格上涨，而新车价格可能因经销商激励措施减少而上涨 0.2%。汽车保险也是另一个上涨压力的领域，预计保费上涨约 0.4%，原因是维修和诉讼成本上升。</p>
<p>预计机票价格将上涨 3%，受到季节性扭曲和旅行活动增加的推动。此外，关税似乎正在逐渐推高多个类别的价格，特别是家庭用品、服装和电子产品，导致她所描述的广泛但受控的通胀动能。</p>
<p>在美国银行，经济学家 <strong>Stephen Juneau</strong> 也预测整体和核心 CPI 将环比上涨 0.3%，年核心通胀率将保持在 3.1%。</p>
<p>他将 8 月份的价格压力主要归因于非住房服务的坚挺以及关税对商品的持续传导。Juneau 预计核心商品通胀将保持正增长，家具、服装和娱乐等类别将继续吸收与关税相关的成本。</p>
<p>在服务方面，这位经济学家预计机票和外出住宿价格将再次上涨，受到夏季旅行和经过几个月疲软后的均值回归的推动。</p>
<p>Juneau 警告称，8 月份上涨的能源价格可能会继续推动整体通胀上升。尽管如此，他指出美联储越来越关注核心指标和长期趋势，而不仅仅是月度波动。</p>
<h2>这对美联储和市场意味着什么</h2>
<p>华尔街在周三早盘交易中飙升至新的历史高点，迎接周四的关键通胀报告。所有三大主要大型股指数均创下新纪录，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（由 <strong>先锋标准普尔 500 ETF</strong> VOO 跟踪）上涨 0.5%，达到 6540 点，使其年初至今的涨幅达到 11%。</p>
<p>9 月份降息被广泛视为已成定局，但高于预期的 CPI 读数可能会使 10 月和 12 月的降息预期面临风险。如果通胀强劲，可能还会重新点燃对滞涨的担忧，尤其是在 8 月份的劳动市场数据大幅疲软之后。</p>
<p>上个月，非农就业人数仅增加 22,000，而失业率上升至 4.3%。更令人担忧的是，美国劳工统计局周二将 2024 年 4 月至 2025 年 3 月期间的就业人数修正下调了惊人的 911,000 个。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>特朗普抨击美联储，历史性就业修正——是否为 ‘太晚’ 修复？</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>图像由人工智能通过 Midjourney 生成。</em></p>

高盛

<p>美国生产者价格的意外下降提高了市场对美联储降息的预期，下周 25 个基点降息的概率为 89.8%。然而，经济学家预测消费者价格指数（CPI）同比将上升至 2.9%，这表明通胀压力依然存在。高盛和美国银行的分析师预计，由于二手车价格、机票和关税的上涨，核心通胀将会增加。尽管 9 月份降息似乎很可能，但如果 CPI 强于预期，可能会危及未来的降息，并在疲弱的劳动力市场数据中引发滞胀担忧</p>

<p>A sharper-than-expected drop in U.S. producer prices is bolstering expectations for rate cuts, but with Wednesday's Consumer Price Index on deck, investors will need to brace for a potentially stickier inflation picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国生产者价格意外大幅下跌，增强了降息的预期，但由于周三即将公布消费者价格指数，投资者需要为可能更顽固的通胀形势做好准备。</p>
</div><p>Economists forecast that the August Consumer Price Index will show headline inflation climbing to 2.9% year-over-year, up from 2.7% in July. If confirmed, that would be the highest annual pace since January 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家预测，8 月份的消费者价格指数将显示年通胀率上升至 2.9%，高于 7 月份的 2.7%。如果得到确认，这将是自 2025 年 1 月以来的最高年增速。</p>
</div><p>The core inflation rate, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to remain steady at 3.1%, indicating that underlying price pressures remain well above the Fed’s acceptable target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心通胀率预计将保持在 3.1%，这表明潜在的价格压力仍远高于美联储可接受的目标。</p>
</div><h2>PPI Surprise Boosts Cut Hopes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>PPI 意外提升降息预期</h2>
</div><p>The softer-than-expected August Producer Price Index has strengthened market conviction that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates next week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>低于预期的 8 月份生产者价格指数增强了市场对美联储将在下周开始降息的信心。</p>
</div><p>Headline PPI declined 0.1% month-over-month, defying expectations for a 0.3% rise. The annual rate cooled to 2.6%, well below forecasts for 3.3%. Core PPI also fell 0.1% monthly, with the annual reading dropping from 3.4% to 2.8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>整体 PPI 环比下降 0.1%，与预期的 0.3% 上升相悖。年率降至 2.6%，远低于 3.3% 的预测。核心 PPI 也环比下降 0.1%，年率从 3.4% 降至 2.8%。</p>
</div><p>“This below-forecast and bullish PPI report confirms our view that the FOMC will cut rates by at least 25 basis points next week,” said Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. “In our view, a 50-bps cut would be more effective, but that's not priced in yet.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这份低于预期且积极的 PPI 报告证实了我们认为 FOMC 将在下周至少降息 25 个基点的观点，” 蓝筹日报的首席技术策略师 Larry Tentarelli 表示。“在我们看来，降息 50 个基点会更有效，但这尚未被市场定价。”</p>
</div><p>According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders assign a 89.8% probability to a 25-basis-point cut at next Wednesday's meeting, with just 10.2% odds of a larger half-point move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CME FedWatch 工具，交易员对下周三会议降息 25 个基点的概率赋予了 89.8% 的可能性，而降息 50 个基点的可能性仅为 10.2%。</p>
</div><h2>Another Hot Inflation Report Looms, Economists Warn</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>另一个热通胀报告即将来临，经济学家警告</h2>
</div><p>At Goldman Sachs, economist <strong>Jessica Rindels</strong> is forecasting a hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index report for August, projecting a 0.36% increase in core inflation, slightly above the consensus of 0.3%. That would bring the year-over-year core rate to 3.13%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在高盛，经济学家 <strong>Jessica Rindels</strong> 预测 8 月份的消费者价格指数报告将高于预期，预计核心通胀将上升 0.36%，略高于 0.3% 的共识。这将使年核心通胀率达到 3.13%。</p>
</div><p>Rindels sees used car prices jumping 1.2%, citing a rise in auction prices, while new car prices likely climbed 0.2% due to a drop in dealer incentives. Car insurance is another area of upward pressure, with premiums up an estimated 0.4% amid higher repair and litigation costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rindels 预计二手车价格将上涨 1.2%，原因是拍卖价格上涨，而新车价格可能因经销商激励措施减少而上涨 0.2%。汽车保险也是另一个上涨压力的领域，预计保费上涨约 0.4%，原因是维修和诉讼成本上升。</p>
</div><p>Airfares are expected to have surged 3%, lifted by seasonal distortions and a pickup in travel activity. In addition, tariffs appear to be gradually pushing up prices in several categories—particularly household goods, apparel and electronics—contributing to what she describes as broad but contained inflationary momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计机票价格将上涨 3%，受到季节性扭曲和旅行活动增加的推动。此外，关税似乎正在逐渐推高多个类别的价格，特别是家庭用品、服装和电子产品，导致她所描述的广泛但受控的通胀动能。</p>
</div><p>At Bank of America, economist <strong>Stephen Juneau</strong> is also forecasting a 0.3% monthly increase in both headline and core CPI, with the annual core rate holding steady at 3.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国银行，经济学家 <strong>Stephen Juneau</strong> 也预测整体和核心 CPI 将环比上涨 0.3%，年核心通胀率将保持在 3.1%。</p>
</div><p>He attributes much of the August price pressure to firm non-housing services and a continued pass-through of tariffs on goods. Juneau expects core goods inflation to remain positive, with categories like furnishings, apparel and recreation continuing to absorb tariff-related costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他将 8 月份的价格压力主要归因于非住房服务的坚挺以及关税对商品的持续传导。Juneau 预计核心商品通胀将保持正增长，家具、服装和娱乐等类别将继续吸收与关税相关的成本。</p>
</div><p>On the services side, the economist sees airfares and lodging away from home climbing again, driven by summer travel and mean-reversion after several months of weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在服务方面，这位经济学家预计机票和外出住宿价格将再次上涨，受到夏季旅行和经过几个月疲软后的均值回归的推动。</p>
</div><p>Juneau warns that energy prices, which firmed in August, will likely keep headline inflation moving higher. Even so, he notes the Fed is increasingly focused on core metrics and longer-term trends, not just monthly swings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Juneau 警告称，8 月份上涨的能源价格可能会继续推动整体通胀上升。尽管如此，他指出美联储越来越关注核心指标和长期趋势，而不仅仅是月度波动。</p>
</div><h2>What This Means For The Fed and Markets</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对美联储和市场意味着什么</h2>
</div><p>Wall Street surged to fresh all-time highs in early Wednesday trading, ahead of Thursday's critical inflation report. All three major large-cap indexes reached new records, with the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>– tracked by the <strong>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</strong> VOO – jumping 0.5% to 6,540, bringing its year-to-date gain to 11%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街在周三早盘交易中飙升至新的历史高点，迎接周四的关键通胀报告。所有三大主要大型股指数均创下新纪录，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（由 <strong>先锋标准普尔 500 ETF</strong> VOO 跟踪）上涨 0.5%，达到 6540 点，使其年初至今的涨幅达到 11%。</p>
</div><p>A September rate cut is widely seen as locked in, but a hotter-than-expected CPI reading could put October and December rate cut expectations at risk. If inflation comes in strong, it could also reignite concerns of stagflation, especially after August's sharply weaker labor market data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>9 月份降息被广泛视为已成定局，但高于预期的 CPI 读数可能会使 10 月和 12 月的降息预期面临风险。如果通胀强劲，可能还会重新点燃对滞涨的担忧，尤其是在 8 月份的劳动市场数据大幅疲软之后。</p>
</div><p>Last month, nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%. Adding to the concern, the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday revised down a staggering 911,000 jobs from previously reported figures between April 2024 and March 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上个月，非农就业人数仅增加 22,000，而失业率上升至 4.3%。更令人担忧的是，美国劳工统计局周二将 2024 年 4 月至 2025 年 3 月期间的就业人数修正下调了惊人的 911,000 个。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Trump Slams Fed After Historic Jobs Revision—Is It ‘Too Late’ To Fix It?</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>特朗普抨击美联储，历史性就业修正——是否为 ‘太晚’ 修复？</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图像由人工智能通过 Midjourney 生成。</em></p>
</div>

One Surprise Inflation Number Could Change The Fed's Next Move

- 美国生产者价格意外下降，增强了降息预期。  
- 预计 8 月消费者价格指数将上升至 2.9%。  
- 若通胀强劲，可能影响未来降息计划。  

一个意外的通胀数据可能会影响美联储的下一步决策