<p>作者：Jamie McGeever</p><p>佛罗里达州奥兰多，9 月 10 日（路透社）- 交易日</p><p>理解推动全球市场的力量</p><p>作者：Jamie McGeever，市场专栏作家 周三，美国生产者价格通胀数据意外疲软，促使外界押注下周美国利率将下调半个百分点，推动华尔街创下新高，金价上涨，债券收益率下滑。</p><p>在我今天的专栏中，我探讨了美联储降息与顽固通胀的结合将如何降低美国的 ‘实际’ 利率和收益率，这对美元来说是个坏消息。</p><p>如果你有更多时间阅读，这里有几篇我推荐的文章，帮助你理解今天市场发生了什么。</p><ol><li>波兰在其空域击落无人机，成为乌克兰战争期间首个开火的北约成员国</li><li>特朗普提名的美联储理事米兰更接近参议院确认</li><li>稳定币可能重启美国的 ‘过度特权’：迈克·多兰</li><li>投资者对财政部 30 年期国债拍卖感到谨慎，因近期表现令人失望</li><li>华尔街创纪录的上涨刺激了备兑看涨期权策略的增长</li></ol><p>今天的关键市场动态</p><ul><li>股票：标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克创下新高，尽管它们回吐了部分涨幅。道琼斯指数和罗素 2000 指数下跌。</li><li>股票/行业：甲骨文股价飙升 43%，Klarna 在纽约证券交易所首秀时上涨 30%。苹果下滑 3.2%。科技、公用事业和能源是华尔街最大的上涨板块，消费品则是最大的下跌板块。</li><li>外汇：美元指数持平。巴西雷亚尔是最大的上涨货币，波兰兹罗提则是最大的下跌货币。</li><li>债券：美国收益率下滑，长期收益率下降 3 个基点。收益率曲线趋平，10 年期国债拍卖吸引了自 4 月以来最高的投标/覆盖比。</li><li>商品：黄金创下新收盘高，油价期货上涨近 2% - 布伦特原油上涨至 67.78 美元/桶，WTI 原油突破 64 美元/桶。</li></ul><p>今天的讨论要点：</p><ul><li>科技再度繁荣……</li></ul><p>甲骨文股价的 43% 激增将整个人工智能泡沫的辩论推回到最尖锐的焦点。这不是一只便士股票、初创公司或网络热门股票，而是一家历史悠久的科技巨头，现在突然接近加入 1 万亿美元市值俱乐部。</p><p>甲骨文周二表示，预计其云基础设施业务的预订收入将超过 5000 亿美元。周三，股价交易的预期 12 个月前瞻性市盈率接近 50 倍，为自互联网泡沫破裂以来的最高水平，当时其前瞻性市盈率超过 120 倍。</p><ul><li>美联储构成</li></ul><p>特朗普总统第二任期内美联储的构成和独立性继续主导美联储观察者的思考，目前的焦点集中在理事丽莎·库克和董事会提名人斯蒂芬·米兰身上。</p><p>一名联邦法官已暂时阻止特朗普解雇库克，而米兰目前作为白宫经济顾问，已通过美国参议院的障碍。与此同时，特朗普周三抨击美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，称其为 “完全的灾难，毫无头绪”，并坚持要求美联储大幅降息。</p><ul><li>地缘政治</li></ul><p>周三，由于以色列在卡塔尔首都多哈的袭击，油价飙升，而波兰兹罗提在波兰击落疑似俄罗斯无人机后遭遇一个多月以来的最糟糕一天，这是北约成员国在俄罗斯与乌克兰战争期间首次开火。</p><p>这些举动并不算太戏剧化，但提醒投资者全球某些地区的政治风险可能迅速蔓延到资产价格和市场波动中。</p><p>‘实际’ 利率下滑威胁拉低美元</p><p>由于投资者预计美联储将恢复降息周期，美元今年受到重创。但即使较低的名义利率已经反映在美元的价格中，较低的 ‘实际’ 利率可能并未如此。</p><p>在经历了 50 多年来自由浮动汇率时代最糟糕的开局后，美元最近获得了一些喘息机会。但如果其实际利率支持消失，美元将面临新的阻力，这目前似乎很可能。</p><p>如果美联储如预期在下周触发降息，届时通胀约为 3% - 超过中央银行 2% 的目标一个百分点。在价格顽固的情况下，调整后的美国 ‘实际’ 利率与发达市场同行之间的差距应该缩小 - 这对美元来说是个坏消息。</p><p>‘实际’ 痛苦</p><p>调整后的 ‘实际’ 利率和收益率的差异通常被认为在决定货币的相对回报和购买力方面发挥着最大作用。</p><p>根据你使用的年度通胀数据，目前的 ‘实际’ 联邦基金利率在 1.3% 到 1.8% 之间。这远高于欧元区、英国，尤其是日本的相应利率，后者的实际政策利率深度负值。</p><p>你可以说，这并没有阻止美元今年的惊人下跌。但也许短期内的 ‘实际’ 优势帮助避免了更陡的下滑。如果这种支持消失，会发生什么？</p><p>在收益率曲线的远端，这种情况已经发生。美元今年 10% 的下滑在很大程度上归因于其在五年和十年期的正实际收益差的崩溃。这些利差目前是自 2022 年初以来最窄的，但可能会进一步收窄。</p><h3 id="d4xox27ik">第六次的魅力？</h3><p>利率期货交易者预计美联储将在明年年底前降息约 150 个基点，这是发达国家中最多的，但实际上只是跟随大多数这些国家的步伐。</p><p>在 ‘实际’ 利率方程的另一侧是通胀，通胀在发达国家中仍然顽固且高于目标，尤其是在美国 - 而这还没有真正受到关税价格冲击的影响。</p><p>摩根大通的经济学家周二警告称，除非出现衰退，否则 2026 年可能将是连续第六年通胀回归目标的预期未能实现。</p><p>他们指出，自 2021 年以来，政策制定者的通胀预测记录 “不尽如人意”，可以这样说。他们认为，中央银行在此期间平均低估了核心通胀约一个百分点，并且超出了目标约 1.5 个百分点。</p><p>英格兰银行的记录最差，但考虑到美联储的全球影响力，其糟糕的表现尤为突出。在此期间，美国中央银行的通胀预测平均偏差为 1.3 个百分点，并且超出了目标约 2 个百分点。</p><p>当然，也许第六次会是幸运的一次，通胀将在明年与美联储的预测一致地缓解。美国的劳动力市场在周二公布的工资增长创纪录的下调后，似乎变得相当疲软。如果失业率上升，消费者需求、经济活动和价格压力肯定会降温。</p><p>但目前来看，通胀担忧似乎仍在升温。根据一些指标，美国消费者的通胀预期更接近 5%，而非美联储的 2% 目标，金融状况是多年来最宽松的，货币和财政刺激措施似乎即将到来。</p><p>综合来看，这为美国实际利率的降低和美元的进一步贬值提供了基础。</p><p>明天可能会影响市场的因素有哪些？</p><ul><li>日本批发通胀（8 月）</li><li>欧洲中央银行利率决定，欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德新闻发布会</li><li>美国每周失业救济申请</li><li>美国消费者物价指数（8 月）</li><li>美国财政部拍卖 220 亿美元的 30 年期国债</li></ul><p>想要每个工作日早上在邮箱中收到《交易日》吗？请在这里注册我的通讯。</p><p>所表达的观点仅代表作者本人，并不反映路透社的观点，路透社在信托原则下致力于诚信、独立和无偏见。</p><p>美国与德国 5 年期实际收益率差</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/5c740e1a5be78e46c1643c034e67693c?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1916" height="792" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/5c740e1a5be78e46c1643c034e67693c"/></figure><p>美国与德国 10 年期实际收益率差</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/016ab27a68af1dea35b5d4208758902b?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1916" height="792" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/016ab27a68af1dea35b5d4208758902b"/></figure><p>美国与欧元区 5 年/5 年通胀预期</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/5735dc88b758827b0317a38fe55b153e?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="744" height="497" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/5735dc88b758827b0317a38fe55b153e"/></figure><p>美国国债各期限的实际收益率</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/41ae1e6cb903c9234424e38e194d0a49?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="749" height="488" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/41ae1e6cb903c9234424e38e194d0a49"/></figure><p>G4 实际政策利率</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/24e4fb54fa9ce3359e0eee2f6722d073?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="693" height="443" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/24e4fb54fa9ce3359e0eee2f6722d073"/></figure><p>中央银行糟糕的通胀预测 - 摩根大通</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/c72184a134f5ddf68927777858edddd7?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="852" height="531" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/c72184a134f5ddf68927777858edddd7"/></figure><p>甲骨文股票，前瞻市盈率激增</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/22332e85d1ba2cfb65cdcf95446895b6?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="944" height="706" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/22332e85d1ba2cfb65cdcf95446895b6"/></figure><p>（作者：杰米·麦基弗；编辑：尼娅·威廉姆斯）</p>

甲骨文

<p>美国生产者价格通胀数据引发了关于潜在降息的猜测，推动了华尔街和黄金价格上涨，同时降低了债券收益率。甲骨文的股票飙升 43%，突显了持续的人工智能讨论，因为该公司预计将实现显著的收入增长。地缘政治紧张局势，包括以色列在卡塔尔的袭击和波兰的无人机事件，也对市场产生了影响。由于美联储预计将在持续通胀的情况下降息，美元面临挑战，这可能会缩小与其他发达市场实际利率之间的差距</p>

<p>By Jamie McGeever</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Jamie McGeever</p>
</div><p>ORLANDO, Florida, Sept 10 (Reuters) - TRADING DAY</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>佛罗里达州奥兰多，9 月 10 日（路透社）- 交易日</p>
</div><p>Making sense of the forces driving global markets</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>理解推动全球市场的力量</p>
</div><p>By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist Surprisingly soft U.S. producer price inflation figures on Wednesday spurred outside bets on a half a percentage point cut in U.S. interest rates next week, pushing Wall Street to new highs, lifting gold, and pulling bond yields lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Jamie McGeever，市场专栏作家 周三，美国生产者价格通胀数据意外疲软，促使外界押注下周美国利率将下调半个百分点，推动华尔街创下新高，金价上涨，债券收益率下滑。</p>
</div><p>In my column today I look at how the combination of Fed rate cuts and sticky inflation will reduce ‘real’ U.S. rates and yields, spelling bad news for the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我今天的专栏中，我探讨了美联储降息与顽固通胀的结合将如何降低美国的 ‘实际’ 利率和收益率，这对美元来说是个坏消息。</p>
</div><p>If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你有更多时间阅读，这里有几篇我推荐的文章，帮助你理解今天市场发生了什么。</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Poland downs drones in its airspace, becoming first NATO member to fire during Ukraine war</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>波兰在其空域击落无人机，成为乌克兰战争期间首个开火的北约成员国</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>Trump’s Fed governor nominee Miran moves step closer to Senate confirmation</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>特朗普提名的美联储理事米兰更接近参议院确认</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>Stablecoins might reboot U.S. ‘exorbitant privilege’: Mike Dolan</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>稳定币可能重启美国的 ‘过度特权’：迈克·多兰</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>Investors wary of Treasury’s 30-year bond auction after recent disappointments</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>投资者对财政部 30 年期国债拍卖感到谨慎，因近期表现令人失望</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>Wall Street’s record rise spurs growth of covered call strategies</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>华尔街创纪录的上涨刺激了备兑看涨期权策略的增长</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Today’s Key Market Moves</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的关键市场动态</p>
</div><ul>
<li>STOCKS: New highs for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq, although they give back their gains. Dow, Russell 2000 fall.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>股票：标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克创下新高，尽管它们回吐了部分涨幅。道琼斯指数和罗素 2000 指数下跌。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>SHARES/SECTORS: Oracle leaps as much as 43%, Klarna jumps 30% in NYSE debut. Apple slides 3.2%. Tech, utilities and energy Wall Street’s biggest advancers, consumer discretionary the biggest decliner.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>股票/行业：甲骨文股价飙升 43%，Klarna 在纽约证券交易所首秀时上涨 30%。苹果下滑 3.2%。科技、公用事业和能源是华尔街最大的上涨板块，消费品则是最大的下跌板块。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>FX: Dollar index ends flat. Brazil’s real one of the biggest climbers, Polish zloty among the biggest decliners.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>外汇：美元指数持平。巴西雷亚尔是最大的上涨货币，波兰兹罗提则是最大的下跌货币。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>BONDS: U.S. yields lower, down 3 bps at long end. Curve bull flattens, 10-year auction draws highest bid/cover since April.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>债券：美国收益率下滑，长期收益率下降 3 个基点。收益率曲线趋平，10 年期国债拍卖吸引了自 4 月以来最高的投标/覆盖比。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>COMMODITIES: Gold hits new closing high, oil futures spike nearly 2% - Brent up to $67.78/bbl, WTI pops above $64/bbl.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>商品：黄金创下新收盘高，油价期货上涨近 2% - 布伦特原油上涨至 67.78 美元/桶，WTI 原油突破 64 美元/桶。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Today’s Talking Points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的讨论要点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Tech booming … agAIn</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>科技再度繁荣……</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The extraordinary 43% surge in Oracle’s share price thrusts the whole AI bubble debate back into the sharpest focus. This is</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文股价的 43% 激增将整个人工智能泡沫的辩论推回到最尖锐的焦点。这不是一只便士股票、初创公司或网络热门股票，而是一家历史悠久的科技巨头，现在突然接近加入 1 万亿美元市值俱乐部。</p>
</div><p>not a penny stock, startup or meme stock, this is a long-established tech giant, which is now suddenly close to joining the exclusive $1 trillion market cap club.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文周二表示，预计其云基础设施业务的预订收入将超过 5000 亿美元。周三，股价交易的预期 12 个月前瞻性市盈率接近 50 倍，为自互联网泡沫破裂以来的最高水平，当时其前瞻性市盈率超过 120 倍。</p>
</div><p>Oracle said on Tuesday it expects booked revenue at its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure business to exceed half a trillion dollars. Shares traded at nearly 50x estimated 12-month forward earnings on Wednesday, the highest since the dotcom crash, when its forward PE topped 120.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美联储构成</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Fed Makeup</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普总统第二任期内美联储的构成和独立性继续主导美联储观察者的思考，目前的焦点集中在理事丽莎·库克和董事会提名人斯蒂芬·米兰身上。</p>
</div><p>The composition - and independence - of the Federal Reserve in President Donald Trump’s second term continues to dominate Fed watchers’ thinking, with the focus right now centered on Governor Lisa Cook and board nominee Stephen Miran.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一名联邦法官已暂时阻止特朗普解雇库克，而米兰目前作为白宫经济顾问，已通过美国参议院的障碍。与此同时，特朗普周三抨击美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，称其为 “完全的灾难，毫无头绪”，并坚持要求美联储大幅降息。</p>
</div><p>A federal judge has temporarily blocked Trump from firing Cook while Miran, currently a White House economic adviser, has cleared a U.S. Senate hurdle. Meanwhile, Trump on Wednesday lambasted Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling him “a total disaster, who doesn’t have a clue” and insisting that the Fed slash interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>地缘政治</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Geopolitics</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三，由于以色列在卡塔尔首都多哈的袭击，油价飙升，而波兰兹罗提在波兰击落疑似俄罗斯无人机后遭遇一个多月以来的最糟糕一天，这是北约成员国在俄罗斯与乌克兰战争期间首次开火。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices spiked on Wednesday after an Israeli attack in Qatar’s capital Doha, and the Polish zloty had its worst day in over a month after Poland shot down suspected Russian drones in its airspace, the first time a member of NATO is known to have fired shots during Russia’s war in Ukraine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些举动并不算太戏剧化，但提醒投资者全球某些地区的政治风险可能迅速蔓延到资产价格和市场波动中。</p>
</div><p>The moves weren’t too dramatic, but were a reminder to investors of the political risk in pockets around the world that can quickly spill over into asset prices and market volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘实际’ 利率下滑威胁拉低美元</p>
</div><p>‘Real’ rate dip threatens to pull down dollar</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于投资者预计美联储将恢复降息周期，美元今年受到重创。但即使较低的名义利率已经反映在美元的价格中，较低的 ‘实际’ 利率可能并未如此。</p>
</div><p>The dollar has been beaten down this year as investors have priced in a resumption of the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle. But even if lower nominal rates are already reflected in the greenback’s price, lower ‘real’ rates may not be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了 50 多年来自由浮动汇率时代最糟糕的开局后，美元最近获得了一些喘息机会。但如果其实际利率支持消失，美元将面临新的阻力，这目前似乎很可能。</p>
</div><p>The greenback has gotten a bit of respite recently after recording its worst start to any calendar year since the era of free-floating exchange rates was introduced over 50 years ago. But it will face a renewed headwind if its real interest rate support evaporates, which currently seems likely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美联储如预期在下周触发降息，届时通胀约为 3% - 超过中央银行 2% 的目标一个百分点。在价格顽固的情况下，调整后的美国 ‘实际’ 利率与发达市场同行之间的差距应该缩小 - 这对美元来说是个坏消息。</p>
</div><p>If the Fed pulls the rate cut trigger next week, as expected, it will be doing so with inflation around 3% - a percentage point above the central bank’s 2% target. Further easing amid sticky prices means the gap between the U.S.’s inflation-adjusted or ‘real’ interest rate and those of its developed market peers should narrow – bad news for the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>‘实际’ 痛苦</p>
</div><p>‘REAL’ PAIN</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>调整后的 ‘实际’ 利率和收益率的差异通常被认为在决定货币的相对回报和购买力方面发挥着最大作用。</p>
</div><p>The difference in inflation-adjusted or ‘real’ interest rates and yields is often thought to play the biggest role in determining the relative returns and purchasing power of currencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据你使用的年度通胀数据，目前的 ‘实际’ 联邦基金利率在 1.3% 到 1.8% 之间。这远高于欧元区、英国，尤其是日本的相应利率，后者的实际政策利率深度负值。</p>
</div><p>Depending on what cut of annual inflation you use, the ‘real’ federal funds rate right now is somewhere in the 1.3-1.8% range. That’s much higher than equivalent rates in the euro zone, Britain and most notably Japan, where the real policy rate is deeply negative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可以说，这并没有阻止美元今年的惊人下跌。但也许短期内的 ‘实际’ 优势帮助避免了更陡的下滑。如果这种支持消失，会发生什么？</p>
</div><p>You can argue this hasn’t prevented the dollar’s eye-popping decline so far this year. But maybe that ‘real’ advantage at the short end helped avert an even steeper slide. What’s going to happen if that support evaporates?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在收益率曲线的远端，这种情况已经发生。美元今年 10% 的下滑在很大程度上归因于其在五年和十年期的正实际收益差的崩溃。这些利差目前是自 2022 年初以来最窄的，但可能会进一步收窄。</p>
</div><p>It already has further out the curve. The dollar’s 10% slide this year is thanks in no small part to the collapse in its positive real yield differentials in the five- and 10-year space, for example. These spreads are currently the narrowest since early 2022, but can shrink further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>第六次的魅力？</h3>
</div><h3>SIXTH TIME’S THE CHARM?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率期货交易者预计美联储将在明年年底前降息约 150 个基点，这是发达国家中最多的，但实际上只是跟随大多数这些国家的步伐。</p>
</div><p>Rates futures traders expect the Fed to cut rates by some 150 basis points by the end of next year, the most in the developed world but only really playing catch-up with most of these countries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 ‘实际’ 利率方程的另一侧是通胀，通胀在发达国家中仍然顽固且高于目标，尤其是在美国 - 而这还没有真正受到关税价格冲击的影响。</p>
</div><p>On the other side of the ‘real’ rate equation is inflation, which remains sticky and above target across the developed world, but particularly in the United States – and that’s before the tariff price shock truly hits.</p>
<p>Economists at JP Morgan on Tuesday warned that, barring recession, 2026 will likely be the sixth year in a row expectations of inflation returning to target will not be met.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通的经济学家周二警告称，除非出现衰退，否则 2026 年可能将是连续第六年通胀回归目标的预期未能实现。</p>
</div><p>They note that policymakers’ inflation forecasting record since 2021 has been “less than exemplary,” to put it charitably. They reckon central banks have, on average, underestimated core inflation over the period by about one percentage point and overshot their targets by 1.5 percentage points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们指出，自 2021 年以来，政策制定者的通胀预测记录 “不尽如人意”，可以这样说。他们认为，中央银行在此期间平均低估了核心通胀约一个百分点，并且超出了目标约 1.5 个百分点。</p>
</div><p>The Bank of England has the worst record, but given the Fed’s global prominence, its poor marks are what really stand out. The U.S. central bank’s inflation forecasts have missed by an average of 1.3 percentage point over this period, and it has overshot its target by roughly 2 percentage points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英格兰银行的记录最差，但考虑到美联储的全球影响力，其糟糕的表现尤为突出。在此期间，美国中央银行的通胀预测平均偏差为 1.3 个百分点，并且超出了目标约 2 个百分点。</p>
</div><p>Of course, maybe the sixth time will be the charm, and inflation will ease in line with Fed forecasts next year. The soft U.S. labor market appears quite a bit mushier following Tuesday’s announcement of a record downward revision of payrolls growth. And if unemployment rises, consumer demand, economic activity, and price pressures will surely cool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，也许第六次会是幸运的一次，通胀将在明年与美联储的预测一致地缓解。美国的劳动力市场在周二公布的工资增长创纪录的下调后，似乎变得相当疲软。如果失业率上升，消费者需求、经济活动和价格压力肯定会降温。</p>
</div><p>But for now, inflation concerns still appear to be simmering. U.S. consumer inflation expectations are, by some measures, closer to 5% than the Fed’s 2% goal, financial conditions are the loosest in years, and monetary and fiscal stimulus look to be coming down the pike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但目前来看，通胀担忧似乎仍在升温。根据一些指标，美国消费者的通胀预期更接近 5%，而非美联储的 2% 目标，金融状况是多年来最宽松的，货币和财政刺激措施似乎即将到来。</p>
</div><p>Put everything together, and you have the recipe for lower U.S. real rates and more dollar pain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合来看，这为美国实际利率的降低和美元的进一步贬值提供了基础。</p>
</div><p>What could move markets tomorrow?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>明天可能会影响市场的因素有哪些？</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Japan wholesale inflation (August)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本批发通胀（8 月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>European Central Bank rate decision, ECB President Christine Lagarde press conference</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>欧洲中央银行利率决定，欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德新闻发布会</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>U.S. weekly jobless claims</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美国每周失业救济申请</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>U.S. CPI inflation (August)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美国消费者物价指数（8 月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>U.S. Treasury auctions $22 billion of 30-year notes</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美国财政部拍卖 220 亿美元的 30 年期国债</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>想要每个工作日早上在邮箱中收到《交易日》吗？请在这里注册我的通讯。</p>
</div><p>Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所表达的观点仅代表作者本人，并不反映路透社的观点，路透社在信托原则下致力于诚信、独立和无偏见。</p>
</div><p>U.S.-Germany 5-year real yield spread</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国与德国 5 年期实际收益率差</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3JPhsHj" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3JPhsHj"/></p>
<p>U.S.-Germany 10-year real yield spread</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国与德国 10 年期实际收益率差</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/46jrFDm" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/46jrFDm"/></p>
<p>U.S. vs euro zone 5-year/5-year inflation expectations</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国与欧元区 5 年/5 年通胀预期</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/46wUGwo" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/46wUGwo"/></p>
<p>Real U.S. Treasury yields across the curve</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国国债各期限的实际收益率</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/46cWjxX" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/46cWjxX"/></p>
<p>G4 real policy rates</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>G4 实际政策利率</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3V6EBr0" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3V6EBr0"/></p>
<p>Central banks’ poor inflation forecasting - JP Morgan</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央银行糟糕的通胀预测 - 摩根大通</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4m5jwrT" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4m5jwrT"/></p>
<p>Oracle shares, forward PE surge</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文股票，前瞻市盈率激增</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4goIHVm" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4goIHVm"/></p>
<p>(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者：杰米·麦基弗；编辑：尼娅·威廉姆斯）</p>
</div>

TRADING DAY-Inflation cools, Oracle on fire

- 美国生产者价格通胀数据疲软，市场预期美联储下周降息。  
- 油价因以色列袭击卡塔尔而上涨，波兰击落无人机引发市场波动。  
- 美元面临下行压力，因实际利率可能进一步降低。  

交易日——通胀降温，甲骨文表现火热