<p>人工智能（AI）有潜力改变全球经济。普华永道估计，在未来五年内，它可能增加多达 15.7 万亿美元的经济产出。</p>
<p>很少有 AI 公司能像 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 2.70%）那样吸引投资者的注意。销售和盈利的强劲双位数增长推动了股价的巨大上涨，但这一上涨也使其估值达到了极端水平。即使在最近的回调之后，Palantir 的股票仍然以超过 500 倍的市盈率和约 112 倍的市销率交易。这些数字很难令人信服。</p>
<p>在我看来，Palantir 的股票实在是太贵了。在股票的估值与现实相连之前，我不会购买它。以下是三只仍然值得购买的 AI 股票。</p>
<h2>1. 现任 AI 冠军</h2>
<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 3.85%）仍然是 AI 领域的明确领导者。其先进的图形处理单元（GPU）是市场上几乎所有模型和应用的基础，得益于历史上最大的一轮资本支出周期。《金融时报》最近报道，未来几年将花费约 3 万亿美元用于数据中心。显然，并不是所有的资金都会流向 Nvidia，但其中一部分会。</p>
<p>目前，其 Blackwell 芯片在竞争中遥遥领先。虽然 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 的下一代芯片将缩小差距，但 Nvidia 当前的更新周期意味着 Blackwell 的继任者 Rubin 很快就会到来。该公司的巨大成功也意味着它拥有足够的资源——无论是资金还是人力——来维持其技术领导地位。</p>
<p>但 Nvidia 真正的护城河不仅仅在于其硬件。公司的 CUDA 软件平台使 GPU 能够执行远超其最初设计的图形渲染任务，是 AI 软件构建的基础。CUDA 在 AI 工程中深深嵌入，以至于从 Nvidia 的生态系统切换将要求公司彻底改造其软件堆栈的主要部分，并替换或重新培训工程师——这是一个非常昂贵的过程。这一护城河的强大使得 Nvidia 能够收取高价并维持高额利润。</p>
<p>很难想象一个 AI 成功而 Nvidia 不成功的未来，尽管其股票远非便宜，但其高估值是合理的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzODQvZGF0YWNlbnRlci5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="467" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzODQvZGF0YWNlbnRlci5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>2. 被低估的 AI 先锋</h2>
<p><strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG -0.12%）（GOOGL -0.15%）在 AI 领域已经是先锋超过十年。其 Google Brain 部门源于近 15 年前的 DeepMind 收购，帮助奠定了现代生成 AI 的基础。该公司在早期进入面向消费者的大型语言模型（LLM）时遭遇挫折，落后于 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT，并在投资者中受到了声誉打击。但自那时以来，许多事情发生了变化，在许多方面，谷歌已经重新获得了技术优势。</p>
<p>研究和开发仍然是其强项，Alphabet 很可能会继续处于 AI 及其后续技术的前沿。作为一个超大规模云服务提供商，Google Cloud 提供了实际驱动 AI 的基础设施。它拥有世界上最大和最有价值的数据宝库之一——这对于训练和改进 AI 系统至关重要。其产品已经深深嵌入全球消费者和商业运营的生活中，为其将 AI 直接整合到人们已经有效使用的服务中提供了自然的途径。</p>
<p>尽管如此，Alphabet 的股票仍然是大型科技公司中较便宜的选择之一。</p>
<h2>Palantir 无法超越其估值</h2>
<p>Palantir 是一家成功的公司，证明了 AI 可以为以正确方式使用它的公司带来真正的价值。它将在可预见的未来继续快速增长其收入和利润，但其价格是为完美而定，而不仅仅是高水平的成功。</p>
<p>另一方面，Nvidia 和 Alphabet 是稳健的公司，拥有令人难以置信的现金流和广泛的护城河，其股票的定价更符合现实。我将它们视为值得长期持有的 AI 股票。</p>

<p>这篇文章讨论了人工智能（AI）对全球经济转型的潜力，预计在五年内将增加 15.7 万亿美元。文章批评了 Palantir Technologies 的高估值，认为现在购买其股票过于昂贵。相反，文章推荐了 Nvidia，因为其在 AI 硬件和软件方面的领导地位，以及 Alphabet，因为其在 AI 研究和云基础设施方面的强大地位。这两家公司被视为相比 Palantir 更好的长期投资，后者的股价已反映出完美的预期，尽管其增长潜力仍然存在</p>

<p>Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform the global economy. PwC estimates it could add up to $15.7 trillion over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能（AI）有潜力改变全球经济。普华永道估计，在未来五年内，它可能增加多达 15.7 万亿美元的经济产出。</p>
</div><p>Few AI companies have captured the attention of investors quite like <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 2.70%). Strong double-digit growth in both sales and earnings powered a huge stock rally, but that rally has also pushed its valuation to extremes. Even after a recent pullback, Palantir stock trades at more than 500 times earnings and about 112 times sales. Those numbers are hard to justify.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很少有 AI 公司能像 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 2.70%）那样吸引投资者的注意。销售和盈利的强劲双位数增长推动了股价的巨大上涨，但这一上涨也使其估值达到了极端水平。即使在最近的回调之后，Palantir 的股票仍然以超过 500 倍的市盈率和约 112 倍的市销率交易。这些数字很难令人信服。</p>
</div><p>In my view, Palantir stock is just too expensive. I wouldn't buy it until shares trade at a valuation connected to reality. Here are three AI stocks still worth buying instead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，Palantir 的股票实在是太贵了。在股票的估值与现实相连之前，我不会购买它。以下是三只仍然值得购买的 AI 股票。</p>
</div><h2>1. The reigning AI champ</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 现任 AI 冠军</h2>
</div><p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 3.85%) remains the clear leader in AI. Its advanced graphics processing units (GPUs) are the backbone of nearly every model and application on the market, supported by one of the largest capital expenditure cycles in history. <em>The Financial Times</em> recently reported that around $3 trillion will be spent on data centers in the coming years. Obviously, not all of that is going to go to Nvidia, but a good chunk will.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 3.85%）仍然是 AI 领域的明确领导者。其先进的图形处理单元（GPU）是市场上几乎所有模型和应用的基础，得益于历史上最大的一轮资本支出周期。《金融时报》最近报道，未来几年将花费约 3 万亿美元用于数据中心。显然，并不是所有的资金都会流向 Nvidia，但其中一部分会。</p>
</div><p>At the moment, its Blackwell chips are miles ahead of the competition. While <strong>Advanced Micro Devices'</strong> next generation of chips will narrow the gap, Nvidia's current update cycle means that Blackwell's successor, Rubin, will be here soon enough. The company's incredible success also means that it has the resources -- in both money and personnel -- to maintain its technical leadership.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，其 Blackwell 芯片在竞争中遥遥领先。虽然 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 的下一代芯片将缩小差距，但 Nvidia 当前的更新周期意味着 Blackwell 的继任者 Rubin 很快就会到来。该公司的巨大成功也意味着它拥有足够的资源——无论是资金还是人力——来维持其技术领导地位。</p>
</div><p>But Nvidia's real moat isn't just its hardware. The company's CUDA software platform, which allows GPUs to perform tasks far beyond the graphics rendering they were originally made for, is a sort of foundation on which AI software is built. CUDA is so deeply embedded in AI engineering that switching from Nvidia's ecosystem would require companies to overhaul major parts of their software stacks and replace or retrain engineers -- a very costly process. The strength of this moat is part of what allows Nvidia to charge premium prices and maintain sky-high margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Nvidia 真正的护城河不仅仅在于其硬件。公司的 CUDA 软件平台使 GPU 能够执行远超其最初设计的图形渲染任务，是 AI 软件构建的基础。CUDA 在 AI 工程中深深嵌入，以至于从 Nvidia 的生态系统切换将要求公司彻底改造其软件堆栈的主要部分，并替换或重新培训工程师——这是一个非常昂贵的过程。这一护城河的强大使得 Nvidia 能够收取高价并维持高额利润。</p>
</div><p>It's hard to see a future in which AI is successful and Nvidia is not, and although its stock is far from cheap, its premium valuation is justified.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很难想象一个 AI 成功而 Nvidia 不成功的未来，尽管其股票远非便宜，但其高估值是合理的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzAzODQvZGF0YWNlbnRlci5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F830384%2Fdatacenter.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>2. The undervalued AI pioneer</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 被低估的 AI 先锋</h2>
</div><p><strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG -0.12%)(GOOGL -0.15%) has been a pioneer in AI for well over a decade. Its Google Brain division, which grew out of the DeepMind acquisition nearly 15 years ago, helped lay the foundation for modern generative AI. The company stumbled with its early push into consumer-facing large language models (LLMs), falling behind OpenAI's ChatGPT and taking a hit to its reputation with investors. But a lot has changed since then, and in many ways, Google has regained its technical edge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG -0.12%）（GOOGL -0.15%）在 AI 领域已经是先锋超过十年。其 Google Brain 部门源于近 15 年前的 DeepMind 收购，帮助奠定了现代生成 AI 的基础。该公司在早期进入面向消费者的大型语言模型（LLM）时遭遇挫折，落后于 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT，并在投资者中受到了声誉打击。但自那时以来，许多事情发生了变化，在许多方面，谷歌已经重新获得了技术优势。</p>
</div><p>Research and development remain its strong suit, and it's highly likely Alphabet will stay at the forefront of AI and whatever follows it. As a hyperscaler, Google Cloud provides the infrastructure that actually powers AI. It has access to one of the largest and most valuable data troves in the world -- critical for training and improving AI systems. Its products are already deeply embedded in the lives of consumers and business operations across the globe, giving it a natural pathway to integrate AI directly into services people already use effectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>研究和开发仍然是其强项，Alphabet 很可能会继续处于 AI 及其后续技术的前沿。作为一个超大规模云服务提供商，Google Cloud 提供了实际驱动 AI 的基础设施。它拥有世界上最大和最有价值的数据宝库之一——这对于训练和改进 AI 系统至关重要。其产品已经深深嵌入全球消费者和商业运营的生活中，为其将 AI 直接整合到人们已经有效使用的服务中提供了自然的途径。</p>
</div><p>Despite all this, Alphabet stock remains one of the cheaper options in big tech.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，Alphabet 的股票仍然是大型科技公司中较便宜的选择之一。</p>
</div><h2>Palantir won't outrun its valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 无法超越其估值</h2>
</div><p>Palantir is a successful company and proof positive that AI can drive real value for the companies that use it in the right way. It will continue to grow both its top and bottom lines rapidly for the foreseeable future, but it's priced for perfection, not just a high level of success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 是一家成功的公司，证明了 AI 可以为以正确方式使用它的公司带来真正的价值。它将在可预见的未来继续快速增长其收入和利润，但其价格是为完美而定，而不仅仅是高水平的成功。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia and Alphabet, on the other hand, are solid companies with incredible cash flows and wide moats whose stocks are priced more in line with reality. I see them as AI stocks to hold for the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，Nvidia 和 Alphabet 是稳健的公司，拥有令人难以置信的现金流和广泛的护城河，其股票的定价更符合现实。我将它们视为值得长期持有的 AI 股票。</p>
</div>

Should You Forget Palantir and Buy These 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Instead?

- 人工智能有潜力改变全球经济，PwC 预计未来五年可增加 15.7 万亿美元。  
- Palantir Technologies 股价高估，市盈率超过 500 倍，建议投资者关注 Nvidia 和 Alphabet。  
- Nvidia 在 AI 领域领先，Alphabet 则凭借强大的研发能力和数据资源保持竞争力。

Motley Fool

英伟达

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

1 倍做空谷歌 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多谷歌 ETF - Direxion

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

你是否应该放弃 Palantir，转而购买这两只人工智能（AI）股票？