<p>当投资者想到人工智能（AI）及其背后的芯片时，往往会谈到一家公司：<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 3.91%）。它已成为 AI 采用的无可争议的晴雨表，凭借其行业领先的 GPU 和粘性生态系统的 CUDA 软件，吸引了众多开发者。自从大约三年前 ChatGPT 推出以来，Nvidia 的股票几乎上涨了十倍。</p>
<p>这里有个转折：虽然今天 Nvidia 占据了聚光灯，但在展望下一个十年时，真正掌握增长关键的可能是 <strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 3.77%）。下面，我将解析为什么台积电——或称 TSMC——不仅仅是在乘着 AI 的浪潮，而是在构建使整个行业生机勃勃的基础。</p>
<h2>台积电是全球最具影响力的代工企业</h2>
<p>台积电之所以如此重要，是因为它在半导体生态系统中扮演着支柱的角色。它的代工业务是行业的命脉，将复杂的芯片设计转化为驱动无数生成 AI 应用的物理处理器。</p>
<p>台积电制造 Nvidia 设计的 GPU、<strong>超微半导体</strong> 的 CPU，以及云计算巨头用于更高效优化 AI 工作负载的日益丰富的定制硅。如今，台积电在全球代工市场中占据约 68% 的行业收入份额，远远领先于 <strong>三星电子</strong> 的 8%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4OTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3NjM0MjA4Ni00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="444" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4OTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3NjM0MjA4Ni00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>为什么台积电的股票可能会超越 Nvidia 或 AMD？</h2>
<p>针对 Nvidia 和 AMD 的一个较为响亮的空头论点是应用特定集成电路（ASIC）的日益普及。云计算巨头们越来越有动力设计自己的硅，不仅是为了优化 AI 模型的训练性能，还为了减少对现有厂商的依赖，并抵制其定价权。</p>
<p>这一趋势已经显现：<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的谷歌正在推出其张量处理单元（TPU），<strong>亚马逊</strong> 正在部署其 Trainium 和 Inferentia 芯片，而 <strong>微软</strong> 则在试验自己的 AI 加速器。</p>
<p>对于 Nvidia 和 AMD 而言，这一转变可能意味着增长放缓，因为曾经直接流向他们 GPU 的支出现在被重新分配到内部开发的硬件上。对于这些企业而言，垂直整合不仅仅是预算上的考量；它还是对主导第三方供应商的战略对冲。</p>
<p>然而，对于台积电而言，这些动态看起来截然不同。定制 ASIC 仍然需要制造商，而台积电在先进制造服务方面的现有布局使其成为一个合乎逻辑的合作伙伴。实质上，台积电对哪种特定芯片设计获得动力的脆弱性较小。相反，该公司被定位为一个中立的受益者，乘着推动数万亿美元投入 AI 基础设施的长期顺风。</p>
<h2>现在台积电的股票值得购买吗？</h2>
<p>对于投资者而言，核心问题归结为在日益竞争的 AI 领域中的耐久性。在 AI 热潮的高峰期，其前瞻市盈率（P/E）接近 50，Nvidia 或许是 AI 狂热的最具代表性的象征。即使在降温后，该股票仍以 38 倍的前瞻性收益交易——远高于其三年平均水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/95f073d4ac965a1e73fe61e1ab9ce227.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="456" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/95f073d4ac965a1e73fe61e1ab9ce227.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>虽然这一溢价突显了市场的信心，但也几乎没有错误的余地。计算和网络需求的任何放缓——或来自定制硅的竞争加剧——都可能对 Nvidia 的高估值施加下行压力。</p>
<p>相比之下，台积电的估值则讲述了一个不同的故事。尽管是 Nvidia、AMD 和云计算巨头的基础推动者，台积电却没有享受到同样程度的估值扩张。在我看来，这表明市场尚未完全定价台积电在 AI 开发、基础设施和制造交汇处的关键角色。</p>
<p>随着 AI 基础设施支出的加速，台积电独特地定位为一个中立的赢家，因为该公司无论哪家芯片设计公司在聚光灯下最为突出，都将受益。到 2030 年，台积电不仅会是 AI 故事的一部分——它可能会被视为支持整个生态系统的关键章节。</p>
<p>对于长期投资者而言，这使得台积电的股票成为一个显而易见的买入和持有机会——有望超越今天最受追捧的半导体公司。</p>

台积电

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>一项预测表明，到 2030 年，台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）在人工智能领域可能会超越英伟达（Nvidia）。虽然英伟达目前凭借其 GPU 在市场上处于领先地位，但 TSMC 作为半导体行业的支柱，负责为多家公司制造芯片，发挥着至关重要的作用。随着超大规模云计算公司设计自己的应用特定集成电路（ASIC），TSMC 作为中立制造商将受益。与英伟达相比，TSMC 的估值更具优势，使其在不断增长的人工智能基础设施市场中有望蓬勃发展，成为长期投资者的强力买入选择</p>

<p>When investors think about artificial intelligence (AI) and the chips powering this technology, one company tends to dominate the conversation: <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 3.91%). It has become an undisputed barometer for AI adoption, riding the wave with its industry-leading GPUs and the sticky ecosystem of its CUDA software that keep developers in its orbit. Since the launch of ChatGPT about three years ago, Nvidia stock has surged nearly tenfold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当投资者想到人工智能（AI）及其背后的芯片时，往往会谈到一家公司：<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 3.91%）。它已成为 AI 采用的无可争议的晴雨表，凭借其行业领先的 GPU 和粘性生态系统的 CUDA 软件，吸引了众多开发者。自从大约三年前 ChatGPT 推出以来，Nvidia 的股票几乎上涨了十倍。</p>
</div><p>Here's the twist: While Nvidia commands the spotlight today, it may be <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 3.77%) that holds the real keys to growth as we look toward the next decade. Below, I'll unpack why Taiwan Semi -- or TSMC, as it's often called -- isn't just riding the AI wave, but rather is building the foundation that brings the industry to life.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里有个转折：虽然今天 Nvidia 占据了聚光灯，但在展望下一个十年时，真正掌握增长关键的可能是 <strong>台积电</strong>（TSM 3.77%）。下面，我将解析为什么台积电——或称 TSMC——不仅仅是在乘着 AI 的浪潮，而是在构建使整个行业生机勃勃的基础。</p>
</div><h2>Taiwan Semi is the most influential foundry business on the planet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>台积电是全球最具影响力的代工企业</h2>
</div><p>What makes Taiwan Semi so critical is its role as the backbone of the semiconductor ecosystem. Its foundry operations serve as the lifeblood of the industry, transforming complex chip designs into the physical processors that power myriad generative AI applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电之所以如此重要，是因为它在半导体生态系统中扮演着支柱的角色。它的代工业务是行业的命脉，将复杂的芯片设计转化为驱动无数生成 AI 应用的物理处理器。</p>
</div><p>TSMC manufactures GPUs designed by Nvidia, CPUs for <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>, and a widening range of custom silicon that cloud hyperscalers are using to optimize AI workloads more efficiently. Today, Taiwan Semi dominates the global foundry market with roughly 68% share of industry revenue -- leaving rivals like <strong>Samsung Electronics</strong> in a distant second place with just 8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台积电制造 Nvidia 设计的 GPU、<strong>超微半导体</strong> 的 CPU，以及云计算巨头用于更高效优化 AI 工作负载的日益丰富的定制硅。如今，台积电在全球代工市场中占据约 68% 的行业收入份额，远远领先于 <strong>三星电子</strong> 的 8%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4OTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ3NjM0MjA4Ni00LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831896%2Fgettyimages-1476342086-4.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why might TSMC stock outperform Nvidia or AMD?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么台积电的股票可能会超越 Nvidia 或 AMD？</h2>
</div><p>One of the louder bear cases against Nvidia and AMD is the growing adoption of application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs). Hyperscalers are becoming highly motivated to design their own silicon -- not only to fine-tune training performance for AI models, but also to reduce reliance on incumbents and push back against their pricing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>针对 Nvidia 和 AMD 的一个较为响亮的空头论点是应用特定集成电路（ASIC）的日益普及。云计算巨头们越来越有动力设计自己的硅，不仅是为了优化 AI 模型的训练性能，还为了减少对现有厂商的依赖，并抵制其定价权。</p>
</div><p>The trend is already visible: <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Google is rolling out its tensor processing units (TPU), <strong>Amazon</strong> is deploying its Trainium and Inferentia chips, while <strong>Microsoft</strong> is experimenting with its own AI accelerators.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一趋势已经显现：<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的谷歌正在推出其张量处理单元（TPU），<strong>亚马逊</strong> 正在部署其 Trainium 和 Inferentia 芯片，而 <strong>微软</strong> 则在试验自己的 AI 加速器。</p>
</div><p>For Nvidia and AMD, this shift could translate into slower growth as spending that once flowed directly toward their GPUs is instead redirected to internally developed hardware. For these enterprises, vertical integration isn't just a budgeting exercise; it's a strategic hedge against dominating third-party suppliers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 Nvidia 和 AMD 而言，这一转变可能意味着增长放缓，因为曾经直接流向他们 GPU 的支出现在被重新分配到内部开发的硬件上。对于这些企业而言，垂直整合不仅仅是预算上的考量；它还是对主导第三方供应商的战略对冲。</p>
</div><p>For TSMC, however, these dynamics look quite different. Custom ASICs still need a manufacturer, and Taiwan Semi's existing footprint in advanced fabrication services makes it a logical partner. In essence, TSMC is less vulnerable to <em>which</em> specific chip design gains momentum. Rather, the company is positioned as a neutral beneficiary riding the secular tailwinds fueling trillions of dollars being poured into AI infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，对于台积电而言，这些动态看起来截然不同。定制 ASIC 仍然需要制造商，而台积电在先进制造服务方面的现有布局使其成为一个合乎逻辑的合作伙伴。实质上，台积电对哪种特定芯片设计获得动力的脆弱性较小。相反，该公司被定位为一个中立的受益者，乘着推动数万亿美元投入 AI 基础设施的长期顺风。</p>
</div><h2>Is Taiwan Semi stock a good buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在台积电的股票值得购买吗？</h2>
</div><p>For investors, the central question boils down to durability in an increasingly competitive AI landscape. With its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple peaking near 50 during the height of the AI frenzy, Nvidia is perhaps the most defining symbol of AI euphoria. Even after cooling off, the stock still trades at 38 times its forward earnings -- meaningfully elevated over its three-year average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于投资者而言，核心问题归结为在日益竞争的 AI 领域中的耐久性。在 AI 热潮的高峰期，其前瞻市盈率（P/E）接近 50，Nvidia 或许是 AI 狂热的最具代表性的象征。即使在降温后，该股票仍以 38 倍的前瞻性收益交易——远高于其三年平均水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/95f073d4ac965a1e73fe61e1ab9ce227.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/95f073d4ac965a1e73fe61e1ab9ce227.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>While this premium underscores the market's confidence, it also leaves little margin for error. Any slowdown in demand across compute and networking -- or mounting competition from custom silicon -- could put downward pressure on Nvidia's lofty valuation multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这一溢价突显了市场的信心，但也几乎没有错误的余地。计算和网络需求的任何放缓——或来自定制硅的竞争加剧——都可能对 Nvidia 的高估值施加下行压力。</p>
</div><p>By contrast, TSMC's valuation tells a different story. Despite being the underlying enabler of Nvidia, AMD, and hyperscalers alike, Taiwan Semi has not enjoyed the same degree of valuation expansion. To me, this suggests that the market has yet to fully price in TSMC's critical role at the intersection of AI development, infrastructure, and manufacturing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，台积电的估值则讲述了一个不同的故事。尽管是 Nvidia、AMD 和云计算巨头的基础推动者，台积电却没有享受到同样程度的估值扩张。在我看来，这表明市场尚未完全定价台积电在 AI 开发、基础设施和制造交汇处的关键角色。</p>
</div><p>As AI infrastructure spending accelerates, Taiwan Semi is uniquely positioned as an agnostic winner, as the company stands to benefit regardless of which chip designer is featured most prominently in the spotlight. By 2030, TSMC won't just be part of the AI story -- it likely will be seen as a critical chapter supporting the entire ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 AI 基础设施支出的加速，台积电独特地定位为一个中立的赢家，因为该公司无论哪家芯片设计公司在聚光灯下最为突出，都将受益。到 2030 年，台积电不仅会是 AI 故事的一部分——它可能会被视为支持整个生态系统的关键章节。</p>
</div><p>For long-term investors, this makes TSMC stock a no-brainer opportunity to buy and hold -- one poised to outperform even today's most hyped semiconductor names.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于长期投资者而言，这使得台积电的股票成为一个显而易见的买入和持有机会——有望超越今天最受追捧的半导体公司。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Could Outperform Nvidia by 2030

- Nvidia 在人工智能领域占据主导地位，股价自 ChatGPT 发布以来上涨近十倍。  
- 台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）在半导体生态系统中扮演关键角色，市场份额达 68%。  
- TSMC 作为中立受益者，预计将在未来十年内支持整个 AI 生态系统的增长。  

预测：这只人工智能（AI）股票可能在 2030 年之前表现优于英伟达