<p>作者：Jamie McGeever</p><p>美国佛罗里达州奥兰多，9 月 11 日（路透社）- 交易日</p><p>理解推动全球市场的力量</p><p>作者：Jamie McGeever，市场专栏作家 周四，美国失业救济申请激增至四年来的最高点，巩固了投资者对美联储下周降息的押注，压低了美元和债券收益率，并推动华尔街三大主要指数创下新高。至少目前，宽松货币政策的预期显然超过了对经济增长的担忧。</p><p>关于这一点，下面会有更多内容。在我今天的专栏中，我将探讨周三甲骨文股价的非凡上涨如何重新点燃了关于美国科技和人工智能股票是否处于泡沫中的激烈辩论。</p><p>如果你有更多时间阅读，这里有几篇我推荐的文章，帮助你理解今天市场上发生的事情。</p><ol><li>美国人对特朗普扩大总统权力的举动感到不安，路透社/Ipsos 民调显示</li><li>美国联邦储备委员会似乎准备恢复降息，正值其他央行几乎完成降息</li><li>欧洲央行维持利率不变，仍然 “处于良好状态”</li><li>在乐观的拉加德讲话后，交易员们认为再次降息的可能性越来越小</li><li>日本央行发出信号，进入植田的刺激退出最后阶段 - 出售 ETF</li></ol><p>今天的关键市场动态</p><ul><li>股票：标准普尔 500、纳斯达克和道琼斯创下历史新高。罗素 2000 表现优异，上涨 1.8%，创下 2025 年新高。</li><li>股票/行业：标准普尔 500 的 11 个行业中有 10 个上涨。华纳兄弟的股票飙升 29%，派拉蒙的股票在《华尔街日报》报道派拉蒙正在准备一项多数现金收购的消息后跃升 15.5%。甲骨文在周三的激增后回落 6%。</li><li>外汇：美元再次下滑，欧元在欧洲央行决定和指引后上涨。印度卢比跌至新低。</li><li>债券：美国 10 年期国债收益率短暂跌破 4%，为 4 月以来首次，30 年期国债拍卖反响良好。</li><li>商品：油价下滑约 2%。银价上涨 1%，达到 14 年来的高点 41.76 美元/盎司。</li></ul><p>今天的讨论要点：</p><ul><li>申请游戏</li></ul><p>现在关于美国利率的唯一争论，肯定是它们将多快下降。这是由于失业救济申请数据的意外激增，超越了对经济增长放缓和潜在通胀数字的担忧 - 申请数量在一年内激增，达到近四年来的最高水平。</p><p>请记住，本周早些时候还宣布了对工资增长的创纪录向下基准年度修订。劳动力市场显然正在放缓，但下周是否足以进行半个百分点的降息？这仍然是一个外部赌注，但交易员对其的概率预期正在上升。</p><ul><li>美联储与世界</li></ul><p>欧洲央行周四将利率维持在 2% 不变，行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德表示其降息周期已结束，称该行仍处于 “良好状态”，经济风险变得更加平衡。</p><p>交易员们对此表示认同。此外，其他央行也接近或已结束其宽松周期。利率期货定价显示，在九个非美国 G10 央行中，只有加拿大的央行预计到明年年底将降息 50 个基点，三家央行不太可能降息，只有一家 - 日本 - 将加息。</p><ul><li>美元低迷</li></ul><p>美联储相对温和的立场 - 或者说是与许多同行的追赶 - 正在对美元施加沉重压力。虽然广义美元指数目前没有创下新低，但仍然出现了一些疲软的迹象。</p><p>周四，美元兑澳大利亚元、墨西哥比索、巴西雷亚尔和哥伦比亚比索跌至 2025 年的低点。上一次美元对这两种货币如此疲软是在去年 6 月。</p><p>甲骨文的激增为火热的人工智能泡沫辩论添柴加火</p><p>周三，美国科技巨头甲骨文的股价激增引发了一个激烈的辩论：美国的人工智能股票热潮是否是一个注定要破裂的泡沫？</p><p>这是一个困扰华尔街几个月的问题，因为人工智能的狂热帮助标准普尔 500 和以科技为主的纳斯达克几乎每天都创下新高，轻松应对围绕关税、华盛顿政治和美联储独立性所带来的混乱和不确定性。</p><p>但周三的感觉有所不同。并不是每天都有国家最大的科技公司看到其股价飙升多达 43%。甲骨文不是一只便士股票、初创公司或网络红人股票。这种规模的激增应该让每个人重新评估市场的现状，以及这一繁荣是否正在进入不可持续的领域。</p><p>以下是五个图表，表明前美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘所称的 “非理性繁荣” 可能正在吞噬人工智能和科技。</p><ol><li>甲骨文的估值飙升</li></ol><p>甲骨文，这家云计算巨头，周三的股票交易估值接近 50 倍的 12 个月前瞻性收益，是自互联网泡沫破裂以来的最高水平，当时其前瞻性市盈率超过 120。当天其股价上涨多达 43%，自 6 月以来几乎翻了一番。</p><p>甲骨文确实表示预计云收入将超过 5000 亿美元，并宣布了四项新的数十亿美元合同，因此一些乐观情绪是合理的。但该公司真的应该比三个月前的价值翻一番吗？</p><ol><li>英伟达的强劲表现</li></ol><p>自 4 月以来，英伟达的股价翻了一番，在过去两年中上涨了惊人的 300%。这家人工智能芯片巨头现在是全球最有价值的公司，市值达到 4.3 万亿美元，超过了除美国、中国、日本和印度以外的所有国家的上市股票市场，德意志银行称。</p><p>当然，英伟达继续产生现金，但在上个季度，仅有两位客户占其收入的 39%。这是否可持续？</p><ol><li>创纪录的集中度</li></ol><p>标准普尔 500 中前五家公司合计权重接近 30%，高于 1960 年代末/1970 年代初的 “精英五十” 和 2000 年互联网泡沫破裂前科技公司的水平。</p><p>这并不自动意味着我们处于泡沫中，但市场正处于未知领域，并且严重依赖于少数几家公司——而且这些公司都在一个行业。历史表明，这种集中程度很少以好的结果收场。</p><ol><li>高估值</li></ol><p>标准普尔 500 科技板块接近自 2002 年以来最昂贵的水平，那时互联网泡沫的余波仍在消散。当然，只要现金不断流入，这种情况是可以维持的。</p><p>但根据麦肯锡的估计，发展该行业所需的与人工智能相关的资本支出到 2030 年全球将达到 6.7 万亿美元，这意味着需要持续流入的现金量是巨大的。当门槛如此之高时，即使是稳健的公司也可能难以达到。</p><ol><li>头寸紧张</li></ol><p>美国银行 8 月份的基金经理调查显示，目前全球市场上最拥挤的交易再次是 “做多七大巨头”，根据 45% 的受访者的说法。大多数人（52%）表示他们没有看到人工智能泡沫，这表明在这一拥挤的交易解开之前，可能会变得更加拥挤。</p><p>只要这一交易仍然获利，投资者就没有太大动力去反对它。但当拥挤的交易反转时，可能会非常突然，并且并不是每个人都能及时逃离。许多投资者可能会损失惨重。</p><p>明天可能影响市场的因素是什么？</p><ul><li>日本工业生产（7 月）</li><li>印度通胀（8 月）</li><li>英国贸易（7 月）</li><li>英国工业生产（7 月）</li><li>德国通胀（8 月，最终估计）</li><li>惠誉对法国信用评级的评估</li><li>美国密歇根大学消费者预期（9 月，初步）</li></ul><p>想要每个工作日早上在您的邮箱中收到《交易日》吗？请在这里注册我的通讯。</p><p>所表达的观点仅代表作者本人。这些观点并不反映路透社的观点，路透社根据信托原则，致力于诚信、独立和无偏见。</p><p>甲骨文的超级飙升</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b3c72903065fbbf4dc04bd599c493f0b?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="960" height="844" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b3c72903065fbbf4dc04bd599c493f0b"/></figure><p>英伟达超越整体市场</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/91e0328f965c257940a9b1586e3459f7?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="1048" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/91e0328f965c257940a9b1586e3459f7"/></figure><p>做多 ‘七大巨头’ 是最拥挤的交易 - 美国银行调查</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/c360bfecaeb5f5f5b255f939a6940ca2?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="705" height="406" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/c360bfecaeb5f5f5b255f939a6940ca2"/></figure><p>前五大科技巨头在标准普尔 500 中的集中度创纪录</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/97983a6bc968e82c01a5279ec435225a?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1138" height="640" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/97983a6bc968e82c01a5279ec435225a"/></figure><p>美国科技估值接近自互联网泡沫以来的最高水平</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/385186ea1c54786fe88b951ff406cbca?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="946" height="716" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/385186ea1c54786fe88b951ff406cbca"/></figure><p>美国失业救济申请</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/1ed4e42398b080815f983b6bb6f85863?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="970" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/1ed4e42398b080815f983b6bb6f85863"/></figure><p>（作者：Jamie McGeever；编辑：Nia Williams）</p>

甲骨文

<p>华尔街的三大主要指数在美国失业救济申请激增后创下新高，这增强了市场对美联储降息的预期。标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克和道琼斯指数均创下纪录，而甲骨文的股价飙升重新引发了关于潜在科技和人工智能泡沫的讨论。与此同时，美元对多种货币贬值，10 年期国债收益率跌破 4%。欧洲中央银行则维持利率不变，表明经济前景保持平衡</p>

<p>By Jamie McGeever</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Jamie McGeever</p>
</div><p>ORLANDO, Florida, Sept 11 (Reuters) - TRADING DAY</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国佛罗里达州奥兰多，9 月 11 日（路透社）- 交易日</p>
</div><p>Making sense of the forces driving global markets</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>理解推动全球市场的力量</p>
</div><p>By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist A surge in U.S. jobless claims to a four-year high on Thursday cemented investors’ bets for a Fed rate cut next week, weighing on the dollar and bond yields, and lifting Wall Street’s three main indices to new highs. For now at least, expectations of easy monetary policy are clearly trumping growth worries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Jamie McGeever，市场专栏作家 周四，美国失业救济申请激增至四年来的最高点，巩固了投资者对美联储下周降息的押注，压低了美元和债券收益率，并推动华尔街三大主要指数创下新高。至少目前，宽松货币政策的预期显然超过了对经济增长的担忧。</p>
</div><p>More on that below. In my column today I look at how the extraordinary rise in Oracle’s share price on Wednesday has reignited the already fiery debate over whether U.S. tech and AI stocks are in a bubble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于这一点，下面会有更多内容。在我今天的专栏中，我将探讨周三甲骨文股价的非凡上涨如何重新点燃了关于美国科技和人工智能股票是否处于泡沫中的激烈辩论。</p>
</div><p>If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你有更多时间阅读，这里有几篇我推荐的文章，帮助你理解今天市场上发生的事情。</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Americans uneasy at Trump’s moves to expand presidential power, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>美国人对特朗普扩大总统权力的举动感到不安，路透社/Ipsos 民调显示</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>U.S. Fed looks set to resume rate cuts just as its peers are nearly done</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>美国联邦储备委员会似乎准备恢复降息，正值其他央行几乎完成降息</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>ECB holds rates unchanged, still ‘in a good place’</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>欧洲央行维持利率不变，仍然 “处于良好状态”</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>Traders see another ECB cut as increasingly unlikely after upbeat Lagarde</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>在乐观的拉加德讲话后，交易员们认为再次降息的可能性越来越小</li>
</ol>
</div><ol>
<li>BOJ signals final phase of Ueda’s stimulus unwind - selling ETFs</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>日本央行发出信号，进入植田的刺激退出最后阶段 - 出售 ETF</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Today’s Key Market Moves</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的关键市场动态</p>
</div><ul>
<li>STOCKS: Record highs for the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq and Dow. Russell 2000 outperforms, up 1.8% to a new 2025 high.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>股票：标准普尔 500、纳斯达克和道琼斯创下历史新高。罗素 2000 表现优异，上涨 1.8%，创下 2025 年新高。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>SHARES/SECTORS: Ten of the 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors rise. Warner Bros shares soar 29% and Paramount shares leap 15.5% on WSJ report Paramount is preparing a majority cash bid. Oracle retreats 6% after Wednesday’s surge.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>股票/行业：标准普尔 500 的 11 个行业中有 10 个上涨。华纳兄弟的股票飙升 29%，派拉蒙的股票在《华尔街日报》报道派拉蒙正在准备一项多数现金收购的消息后跃升 15.5%。甲骨文在周三的激增后回落 6%。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>FX: U.S. dollar slips again, euro rises after ECB decision and steer. Indian rupee falls to fresh record low.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>外汇：美元再次下滑，欧元在欧洲央行决定和指引后上涨。印度卢比跌至新低。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>BONDS: U.S. 10-year yield briefly dips below 4% for first time since April, 30-year auction is pretty well-received.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>债券：美国 10 年期国债收益率短暂跌破 4%，为 4 月以来首次，30 年期国债拍卖反响良好。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>COMMODITIES: Oil slides around 2%. Silver rises 1% to a 14-year high of $41.76/oz.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>商品：油价下滑约 2%。银价上涨 1%，达到 14 年来的高点 41.76 美元/盎司。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Today’s Talking Points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的讨论要点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The claim game</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>申请游戏</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The only debate now around U.S. interest rates, surely, is how fast they will come down. That’s the upshot from the shock jump in jobless claims figures, which trumped worries over slower growth and simmering inflation numbers - claims surged the most in a year to the highest level in nearly four years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在关于美国利率的唯一争论，肯定是它们将多快下降。这是由于失业救济申请数据的意外激增，超越了对经济增长放缓和潜在通胀数字的担忧 - 申请数量在一年内激增，达到近四年来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>Remember, a record downward benchmark annual revision to payrolls growth was announced earlier this week too. The labor market is clearly softening, but enough for a half-percentage point rate cut next week? That’s still an outside bet, but the probability traders are attaching to it is creeping up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请记住，本周早些时候还宣布了对工资增长的创纪录向下基准年度修订。劳动力市场显然正在放缓，但下周是否足以进行半个百分点的降息？这仍然是一个外部赌注，但交易员对其的概率预期正在上升。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Fed vs the world</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美联储与世界</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The European Central Bank kept rates on hold at 2% on Thursday and bank president Christine Lagarde signaled its rate-cutting cycle is over, saying the bank remains in a “good place” and that risks to the economy have become more balanced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲央行周四将利率维持在 2% 不变，行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德表示其降息周期已结束，称该行仍处于 “良好状态”，经济风险变得更加平衡。</p>
</div><p>Traders agree. What’s more, other central banks are at or close to the end of their easing cycles too. Rates futures pricing suggests that, of the nine non-U.S. G10 central banks, only Canada’s is fully expected to cut rates 50 bps by the end of next year, three are unlikely to cut at all, and one - Japan - will raise rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易员们对此表示认同。此外，其他央行也接近或已结束其宽松周期。利率期货定价显示，在九个非美国 G10 央行中，只有加拿大的央行预计到明年年底将降息 50 个基点，三家央行不太可能降息，只有一家 - 日本 - 将加息。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Dollar doldrums</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美元低迷</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The Fed’s relative dovishness - or playing catch-up with many of its peers, if you prefer - is weighing heavily on the dollar. While the broad dollar index isn’t making new lows right now, pockets of weakness continue to pop up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储相对温和的立场 - 或者说是与许多同行的追赶 - 正在对美元施加沉重压力。虽然广义美元指数目前没有创下新低，但仍然出现了一些疲软的迹象。</p>
</div><p>On Thursday the greenback fell to 2025 lows against the Australian dollar, Mexican peso, Brazilian real and Colombian peso. The last time the dollar was this weak against these last two currencies was June last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，美元兑澳大利亚元、墨西哥比索、巴西雷亚尔和哥伦比亚比索跌至 2025 年的低点。上一次美元对这两种货币如此疲软是在去年 6 月。</p>
</div><p>Oracle surge pours fuel on fiery AI bubble debate</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文的激增为火热的人工智能泡沫辩论添柴加火</p>
</div><p>The eye-watering surge in U.S. tech giant Oracle’s share price on Wednesday added fuel to a fiery debate: is the U.S. artificial intelligence stock boom a bubble destined to burst?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三，美国科技巨头甲骨文的股价激增引发了一个激烈的辩论：美国的人工智能股票热潮是否是一个注定要破裂的泡沫？</p>
</div><p>This is a question that has dogged Wall Street for months, as AI euphoria has helped the S&amp;P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq hit new highs seemingly every day, swatting away the chaos and uncertainty surrounding tariffs, Washington politics and Fed independence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个困扰华尔街几个月的问题，因为人工智能的狂热帮助标准普尔 500 和以科技为主的纳斯达克几乎每天都创下新高，轻松应对围绕关税、华盛顿政治和美联储独立性所带来的混乱和不确定性。</p>
</div><p>But Wednesday felt different. It’s not every day that one of the country’s biggest tech companies sees its share price skyrocket by as much as 43%. Oracle is not a penny stock, startup or meme stock. A surge of this magnitude should make everyone reassess where markets are, and whether this boom is moving into unsustainable territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但周三的感觉有所不同。并不是每天都有国家最大的科技公司看到其股价飙升多达 43%。甲骨文不是一只便士股票、初创公司或网络红人股票。这种规模的激增应该让每个人重新评估市场的现状，以及这一繁荣是否正在进入不可持续的领域。</p>
</div><p>Below are five charts that suggest what former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan termed “irrational exuberance” may be engulfing AI and tech.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是五个图表，表明前美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘所称的 “非理性繁荣” 可能正在吞噬人工智能和科技。</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Oracle’s soaring valuation</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>甲骨文的估值飙升</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Oracle, the cloud computing giant, saw its stock trade at nearly 50x estimated 12-month forward earnings on Wednesday, the highest since the dotcom crash when its forward PE topped 120. Its share price rose as much as 43% on the day, causing it to virtually double since June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文，这家云计算巨头，周三的股票交易估值接近 50 倍的 12 个月前瞻性收益，是自互联网泡沫破裂以来的最高水平，当时其前瞻性市盈率超过 120。当天其股价上涨多达 43%，自 6 月以来几乎翻了一番。</p>
</div><p>Oracle did say it expects cloud revenue to exceed half a trillion dollars and announced four new multi-billion contracts, so some optimism is warranted. But should the company truly be worth twice as much as it was only three months ago?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文确实表示预计云收入将超过 5000 亿美元，并宣布了四项新的数十亿美元合同，因此一些乐观情绪是合理的。但该公司真的应该比三个月前的价值翻一番吗？</p>
</div><ol>
<li>The Nvidia juggernaut</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>英伟达的强劲表现</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Nvidia’s share price has doubled since April, rising an eye-popping 300% in the last two years. The AI chip superpower is now the world’s most valuable company with a market cap of $4.3 trillion, larger than every country’s listed stock exchange apart from the U.S., China, Japan and India, according to Deutsche Bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 4 月以来，英伟达的股价翻了一番，在过去两年中上涨了惊人的 300%。这家人工智能芯片巨头现在是全球最有价值的公司，市值达到 4.3 万亿美元，超过了除美国、中国、日本和印度以外的所有国家的上市股票市场，德意志银行称。</p>
</div><p>Sure, Nvidia continues to churn out cash, but just two customers made up 39% of its revenue in the last quarter. Is that sustainable?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，英伟达继续产生现金，但在上个季度，仅有两位客户占其收入的 39%。这是否可持续？</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Record-high concentration</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>创纪录的集中度</li>
</ol>
</div><p>The combined weighting of the top five companies in the S&amp;P 500 is nearing 30%, higher than the ‘Nifty Fifty’ in the late 1960s/early 1970s and much higher than tech companies in 2000 before the dotcom bust.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 中前五家公司合计权重接近 30%，高于 1960 年代末/1970 年代初的 “精英五十” 和 2000 年互联网泡沫破裂前科技公司的水平。</p>
</div><p>This doesn’t automatically mean we’re in a bubble, but the market is in unchartered territory and heavily dependent on a handful of companies - all of them in one industry. History suggests this level of concentration rarely ends well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不自动意味着我们处于泡沫中，但市场正处于未知领域，并且严重依赖于少数几家公司——而且这些公司都在一个行业。历史表明，这种集中程度很少以好的结果收场。</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Lofty valuations</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>高估值</li>
</ol>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 tech sector is nearing its most expensive levels since 2002 when the dust from the dotcom bust was still settling. Of course, this can be sustained as long as the cash keeps rolling in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 科技板块接近自 2002 年以来最昂贵的水平，那时互联网泡沫的余波仍在消散。当然，只要现金不断流入，这种情况是可以维持的。</p>
</div><p>But the amount of AI-related capex needed to develop the industry – an estimated $6.7 trillion worldwide by 2030, according to McKinsey - means the amount of cash that will need to keep coming in is enormous. When the bar is that high, even sound companies might struggle to meet it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但根据麦肯锡的估计，发展该行业所需的与人工智能相关的资本支出到 2030 年全球将达到 6.7 万亿美元，这意味着需要持续流入的现金量是巨大的。当门槛如此之高时，即使是稳健的公司也可能难以达到。</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Stretched positioning</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>头寸紧张</li>
</ol>
</div><p>Bank of America’s August fund manager survey showed that the most crowded trade in world markets currently is once again “long Magnificent 7”, according to 45% of those polled. A majority, 52%, say they see no AI bubble, suggesting this packed trade could get even more crowded before it unwinds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国银行 8 月份的基金经理调查显示，目前全球市场上最拥挤的交易再次是 “做多七大巨头”，根据 45% 的受访者的说法。大多数人（52%）表示他们没有看到人工智能泡沫，这表明在这一拥挤的交易解开之前，可能会变得更加拥挤。</p>
</div><p>Investors have little incentive to go against this trade as long as it remains a winning one. But when a crowded trade reverses it can be sudden, and not everyone gets out the exit door in time. A lot of investors could lose a lot of money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只要这一交易仍然获利，投资者就没有太大动力去反对它。但当拥挤的交易反转时，可能会非常突然，并且并不是每个人都能及时逃离。许多投资者可能会损失惨重。</p>
</div><p>What could move markets tomorrow?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>明天可能影响市场的因素是什么？</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Japan industrial production (July)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本工业生产（7 月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>India inflation (August)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>印度通胀（8 月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>UK trade (July)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>英国贸易（7 月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>UK industrial production (July)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>英国工业生产（7 月）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Germany inflation (August, final estimate)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>德国通胀（8 月，最终估计）</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Fitch reviews France’s credit rating</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>惠誉对法国信用评级的评估</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>U.S. University of Michigan consumer expectations (September, preliminary)</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美国密歇根大学消费者预期（9 月，初步）</li>
</ul>
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</div><p>Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所表达的观点仅代表作者本人。这些观点并不反映路透社的观点，路透社根据信托原则，致力于诚信、独立和无偏见。</p>
</div><p>Oracle’s super surge</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文的超级飙升</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4pjCRbI" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4pjCRbI"/></p>
<p>NVIDIA Outpaces Broader Market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达超越整体市场</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/45VM2Gm" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/45VM2Gm"/></p>
<p>Long ‘Mag 7’ the most crowded trade - BofA survey</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>做多 ‘七大巨头’ 是最拥挤的交易 - 美国银行调查</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4muIXnb" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4muIXnb"/></p>
<p>Top 5 mega tech firms’ record concentration in S&amp;P 500</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前五大科技巨头在标准普尔 500 中的集中度创纪录</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pjUWXc" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4pjUWXc"/></p>
<p>U.S. tech valuations near highest since dotcom bust</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国科技估值接近自互联网泡沫以来的最高水平</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/429RDIj" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/429RDIj"/></p>
<p>US unemployment claims</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国失业救济申请</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4pq8FvJ" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4pq8FvJ"/></p>
<p>(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者：Jamie McGeever；编辑：Nia Williams）</p>
</div>

TRADING DAY-Easy does it, fresh peaks for Wall St

- 美国失业救济申请激增至四年高点，推动投资者预期美联储降息。  
- Oracle 股价暴涨引发对美国科技股泡沫的讨论。  
- S&P 500、纳斯达克和道琼斯指数创下新高。

交易日——稳步前行，华尔街再创新高