<p>表面上，电子商务巨头 <strong>Amazon.com Inc</strong> AMZN 似乎向 <strong>Pinterest Inc</strong> PINS 发出了警告，这显然对 PINS 产生了严重影响。首先，颠覆和随之而来的主导地位是亚马逊的运作方式。针对 PINS 股票的威胁，科技巨头在视觉搜索生态系统中确实是一个合法的竞争者。不过，PINS 的波动性可能为勇敢的期权交易者提供了诱人的折扣。</p>
<p>坦率地说，Pinterest 的逆向叙事似乎有些不理性。上周，亚马逊宣布推出 Lens Live，这是一项与其移动应用集成的视觉购物功能，允许用户指向现实世界的物体，立即从电子商务网站的目录中显示产品匹配。凭借先进的人工智能，Lens 使美国购物者能够实时扫描和发现产品。</p>
<p>从根本上讲，这项新程序与 Pinterest 发生冲突，因为它结合了产品发现和商业。它还利用了消费者在实体零售商处进行比较购物的现有行为，相对于亚马逊的市场列表。因此，令人担忧的是，Pinterest 可能会被排除在外。不出所料，PINS 股票在过去五个交易日中下跌了约 7%。</p>
<p>然而，称 Pinterest 结束还为时尚早。主要是因为焦点仍然不同。Lens 实际上旨在提高交易购物的效率。相反，Pinterest 一直以来都是关于创造性发现和灵感，这是一种体验概念。尽管这种商业模式听起来可能有些异想天开，但公司确实在交付成果。</p>
<p>这不仅仅是 Pinterest 在第二季度实现强劲的收益和收入超预期。管理层强调，业务与消费者产生了共鸣，特别是与 Z 世代。数学上，这一点强调了巨大的潜在增长空间。名义上，全球月活跃用户（MAUs）同比增长 11%，达 5.78 亿。</p>
<p>换句话说，人们仍然会在亚马逊上购物——他们仍然会在 Pinterest 上活动。</p>
<h2>市场对 PINS 股票的看法并非错误……但也可能并不正确</h2>
<p>宣称市场对 PINS 股票的看法是错误的实在是太大胆了。投资者愿意为该证券支付的任何价格都被视为正确的价格。不过，口语上可以说，投资者可能误解了 PINS 的未来影响。</p>
<p>确实，乐观的投机者可能要感谢亚马逊制造了一场小型恐慌。</p>
<p>从量化的角度来看，在过去的 10 周中，PINS 股票经历了四周上涨和六周下跌，整体呈下降趋势。为了分类，这一序列可以标记为 4-6-D。拥有可证伪的信号可以分析过去的类似情况，以确定市场对此的反应。</p>
<p>在我的数据集中，从 2019 年 1 月到 2025 年 7 月，4-6-D 序列往往会产生不寻常的漂移，在接下来的四周内飙升，然后在接下来的六周内逐渐消退，低于整体或基线漂移。换句话说，投资叙事可能会波动。然而，对于期权交易者来说，似乎存在向上的机会。</p>
<p>话虽如此，我们要确保考虑到不同情绪状态的影响。为此，我进行了一个样本外测试，以隔离 2022 年至 2024 年 4-6-D 序列的预期影响。在这个测试中，相对于 PINS 股票的基线漂移，风险回报特征有所提高。不过，潜在回报远高于预期风险。</p>
<p>这并不是说 PINS 股票是稳赚不赔的。此外，自 Pinterest 于 2019 年 4 月上市以来，数据并不多。但根据现有证据——并隔离出疫情后时代的一部分，排除极端的繁荣 - 萧条周期——上述市场序列为乐观的投机者提供了逆向机会。</p>
<h2>一项非常规的赌注</h2>
<p>根据上述市场情报，最具吸引力的交易无疑是 10 月 17 日到期的 36/37 看涨期权价差。这笔交易涉及购买 36 美元的看涨期权，同时卖出 37 美元的看涨期权，净支付 39 美元（交易中可能损失的最大金额）。</p>
<p>如果 PINS 股票在到期时突破第二个行使价（37 美元），最大利润为 61 美元。写作时，这相当于超过 156% 的回报。</p>
<p>使上述看涨价差如此诱人的原因在于，市场做市商并不认为 PINS 股票在接下来的五周内上涨约 6% 是特别可信的；因此，回报率很高。实际上，PINS 的基线漂移预计会使该证券（假设积极情景）在 10 月 17 日到期时达到约 36 美元。</p>
<p>然而，投资者在历史上往往会在分配密集的阶段买入。因此，乐观的论点似乎是最引人注目的。</p>
<p><strong><em>本文中表达的观点和看法仅代表个人作者的观点，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文中提供的任何信息的准确性或可靠性不承担责任。本文仅供信息参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的意见或信息，并在做出投资决策之前进行自己的尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>期权角落：思科刚刚发出了一个罕见信号，可能会引发看跌交易者的风险</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

亚马逊

PINS

<p>亚马逊的新功能 Lens Live 对 Pinterest 构成了竞争威胁，导致 PINS 股票下跌 7%。然而，Pinterest 专注于创意发现以及其日益增长的用户基础，尤其是在 Z 世代中，显示出潜在的韧性。尽管近期波动性较大，期权交易者可能会发现机会，特别是提出的 36/37 看涨期权价差，如果 PINS 在 10 月 17 日之前上涨超过 37 美元，可能会获得超过 156% 的利润。市场当前的情绪可能并未完全反映 Pinterest 的长期潜力</p>

<p>On the surface, e-commerce giant <strong>Amazon.com Inc</strong> AMZN appears to have fired a shot across the bow, which seemingly has grave implications for <strong>Pinterest Inc</strong> PINS. For one thing, disruption and subsequent domination is Amazon's modus operandi. Specific to the threat to PINS stock, the tech juggernaut is very much a legitimate competitor in the visual search ecosystem. Still, PINS' volatility may offer intrepid options traders an enticing discount.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>表面上，电子商务巨头 <strong>Amazon.com Inc</strong> AMZN 似乎向 <strong>Pinterest Inc</strong> PINS 发出了警告，这显然对 PINS 产生了严重影响。首先，颠覆和随之而来的主导地位是亚马逊的运作方式。针对 PINS 股票的威胁，科技巨头在视觉搜索生态系统中确实是一个合法的竞争者。不过，PINS 的波动性可能为勇敢的期权交易者提供了诱人的折扣。</p>
</div><p>To be quite blunt, the contrarian narrative for Pinterest does seem a tad irrational. Last week, Amazon announced the debut of Lens Live, a visual shopping feature integrated with its mobile app that lets users point at real-world objects, instantly revealing product matches from the e-commerce site's catalog. Armed with advanced artificial intelligence, Lens enables real-time product scanning and discovery for U.S. shoppers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>坦率地说，Pinterest 的逆向叙事似乎有些不理性。上周，亚马逊宣布推出 Lens Live，这是一项与其移动应用集成的视觉购物功能，允许用户指向现实世界的物体，立即从电子商务网站的目录中显示产品匹配。凭借先进的人工智能，Lens 使美国购物者能够实时扫描和发现产品。</p>
</div><p>Fundamentally, the new program clashes with Pinterest due to the combination of product discovery and commerce. It also capitalizes on existing consumer behavior of comparison shopping at brick-and-mortar retailers relative to Amazon's marketplace listings. As such, the concern is that Pinterest could be left out in the cold. Not surprisingly, PINS stock is down about 7% in the trailing five sessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从根本上讲，这项新程序与 Pinterest 发生冲突，因为它结合了产品发现和商业。它还利用了消费者在实体零售商处进行比较购物的现有行为，相对于亚马逊的市场列表。因此，令人担忧的是，Pinterest 可能会被排除在外。不出所料，PINS 股票在过去五个交易日中下跌了约 7%。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, it might be premature to call time on Pinterest. Mainly, that's because the focus is still different. Lens effectively aims at improving transactional shopping efficiency. On the flipside, Pinterest has always been about creative discovery and inspiration, which is an experiential concept. And while this business model may sound whimsical, the company's delivering the goods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，称 Pinterest 结束还为时尚早。主要是因为焦点仍然不同。Lens 实际上旨在提高交易购物的效率。相反，Pinterest 一直以来都是关于创造性发现和灵感，这是一种体验概念。尽管这种商业模式听起来可能有些异想天开，但公司确实在交付成果。</p>
</div><p>It's not just about Pinterest delivering a strong second-quarter earnings and revenue beat. Rather, management emphasized that the business is resonating with consumers, particularly with Generation Z. Mathematically, this key point underscores a massive potential runway. Nominally, global monthly active users (MAUs) have increased 11% year-over-year to 578 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这不仅仅是 Pinterest 在第二季度实现强劲的收益和收入超预期。管理层强调，业务与消费者产生了共鸣，特别是与 Z 世代。数学上，这一点强调了巨大的潜在增长空间。名义上，全球月活跃用户（MAUs）同比增长 11%，达 5.78 亿。</p>
</div><p>In other words, people are still going to shop on Amazon — and they're still going to be on Pinterest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，人们仍然会在亚马逊上购物——他们仍然会在 Pinterest 上活动。</p>
</div><h2>The Market Isn't Wrong on PINS Stock…But It May Not Be Right Either</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场对 PINS 股票的看法并非错误……但也可能并不正确</h2>
</div><p>It would be awfully audacious to declare that the market is wrong on PINS stock. Whatever price investors are willing to pay for the security would be considered the correct price. Colloquially, though, there is arguably a case to be made that investors could be misreading the forward implications of PINS.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>宣称市场对 PINS 股票的看法是错误的实在是太大胆了。投资者愿意为该证券支付的任何价格都被视为正确的价格。不过，口语上可以说，投资者可能误解了 PINS 的未来影响。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, bullish speculators may want to thank Amazon for creating a mini-panic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>确实，乐观的投机者可能要感谢亚马逊制造了一场小型恐慌。</p>
</div><p>Looking at the matter quantitatively, in the trailing 10 weeks, PINS stock has printed four up weeks and six down weeks, with an overall downward trajectory. For classification purposes, this sequence can be labeled 4-6-D. Having a falsifiable signal allows for the analyzing of past analogs to determine how the market responded to it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从量化的角度来看，在过去的 10 周中，PINS 股票经历了四周上涨和六周下跌，整体呈下降趋势。为了分类，这一序列可以标记为 4-6-D。拥有可证伪的信号可以分析过去的类似情况，以确定市场对此的反应。</p>
</div><p>In my dataset, which runs from January 2019 to July 2025, the 4-6-D sequence tends to create an unusual drift, spiking higher over the next four weeks before fading out and under the aggregate or baseline drift over the next six weeks. Stated differently, the investment narrative may be choppy. However, for options traders, there does seem to be an opportunity to the upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我的数据集中，从 2019 年 1 月到 2025 年 7 月，4-6-D 序列往往会产生不寻常的漂移，在接下来的四周内飙升，然后在接下来的六周内逐渐消退，低于整体或基线漂移。换句话说，投资叙事可能会波动。然而，对于期权交易者来说，似乎存在向上的机会。</p>
</div><p>With that said, we want to make sure that we're accounting for the impact of different sentiment regimes. To that effect, I ran an out-of-sample test to isolate the expected impact of the 4-6-D sequence for the years 2022 through 2024. In this test, the risk-reward profile is elevated relative to the baseline drift of PINS stock. Still, the reward potential is much more elevated than the expected risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，我们要确保考虑到不同情绪状态的影响。为此，我进行了一个样本外测试，以隔离 2022 年至 2024 年 4-6-D 序列的预期影响。在这个测试中，相对于 PINS 股票的基线漂移，风险回报特征有所提高。不过，潜在回报远高于预期风险。</p>
</div><p>That's not to say that PINS stock is a slam dunk. Plus, with Pinterest launching its initial public offering in April 2019, not much data exists. But from the evidence that is available — and isolating a slice of the post-pandemic era outside of the extreme boom-bust cycle — the aforementioned market sequence has yielded contrarian opportunities for bullish speculators.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是说 PINS 股票是稳赚不赔的。此外，自 Pinterest 于 2019 年 4 月上市以来，数据并不多。但根据现有证据——并隔离出疫情后时代的一部分，排除极端的繁荣 - 萧条周期——上述市场序列为乐观的投机者提供了逆向机会。</p>
</div><h2>An Unconventional Wager</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一项非常规的赌注</h2>
</div><p>Using the market intelligence above, the one trade that's arguably the most attractive is the 36/37 bull call spread expiring Oct. 17. This transaction involves buying the $36 call and simultaneously selling the $37 call, for a net debit paid of $39 (the most that can be lost in the trade).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据上述市场情报，最具吸引力的交易无疑是 10 月 17 日到期的 36/37 看涨期权价差。这笔交易涉及购买 36 美元的看涨期权，同时卖出 37 美元的看涨期权，净支付 39 美元（交易中可能损失的最大金额）。</p>
</div><p>Should PINS stock rise through the second-leg strike price ($37) at expiration, the maximum profit is $61. At time of writing, this translates to a payout of over 156%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 PINS 股票在到期时突破第二个行使价（37 美元），最大利润为 61 美元。写作时，这相当于超过 156% 的回报。</p>
</div><p>What makes the aforementioned bull spread so tempting is that market makers don't believe that PINS stock moving up roughly 6% over the next five weeks is particularly credible; hence, the high payout. Indeed, the baseline drift of PINS would be expected to land the security (assuming the positive scenario) at around $36 by the Oct. 17 expiration date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使上述看涨价差如此诱人的原因在于，市场做市商并不认为 PINS 股票在接下来的五周内上涨约 6% 是特别可信的；因此，回报率很高。实际上，PINS 的基线漂移预计会使该证券（假设积极情景）在 10 月 17 日到期时达到约 36 美元。</p>
</div><p>However, investors have historically bought into distribution-heavy phases. Therefore, the bullish argument would appear to be the most intriguing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资者在历史上往往会在分配密集的阶段买入。因此，乐观的论点似乎是最引人注目的。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>The opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>本文中表达的观点和看法仅代表个人作者的观点，并不一定反映 Benzinga 的观点。Benzinga 对本文中提供的任何信息的准确性或可靠性不承担责任。本文仅供信息参考，不应被误解为投资建议或买卖任何证券的推荐。读者被要求不要依赖本文中的意见或信息，并在做出投资决策之前进行自己的尽职调查。</em></strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Options Corner: Cisco Just Flashed A Rare Signal That Risks Arousing Bearish Traders</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>期权角落：思科刚刚发出了一个罕见信号，可能会引发看跌交易者的风险</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Options Corner: Amazon's Lens Live Makes Pinterest An Enticingly Discounted Prospect

- 亚马逊推出 Lens Live，威胁 Pinterest 的市场地位。  
- Pinterest 用户增长 11%，仍吸引消费者。  
- 选项交易者可考虑 36/37 看涨期权策略。  

期权专栏：亚马逊的 Lens Live 让 Pinterest 成为一个极具吸引力的折扣投资机会