<p><strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA）在人工智能（AI）芯片市场的主导地位使其成为全球最有价值的公司，截至目前市值达到 4.32 万亿美元。重要的是，尽管收入基数庞大，英伟达的增长依然稳健。</p>
<p>考虑到未来五年预计在 AI 数据中心上支出的巨额资金，这家芯片制造商在未来也应能保持其显著的增长。过去三年，投资者对英伟达的热情推动了其股价上涨，使其估值达到了高水平。</p>
<p>英伟达的股票目前交易于 47 倍的过去收益和 25 倍的销售额。尽管英伟达的稳健增长前景很可能证明这一估值是合理的，但公司可能会受到 AI 芯片市场竞争加剧以及关税和监管障碍等地缘政治因素的制约。</p>
<p>如果真是这样，那么看到英伟达失去全球最有价值公司称号也就不足为奇了，接下来将介绍的公司可能会取而代之。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4OTkvYWktd3JpdHRlbi1vbi1jbG91ZC1zaWxob3V0dGUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="376" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4OTkvYWktd3JpdHRlbi1vbi1jbG91ZC1zaWxob3V0dGUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images</p>
<h2>巨大的积压订单将推动这家公司的增长</h2>
<p>与英伟达类似，<strong>微软</strong>（MSFT 0.20%）也是 AI 领域的先驱，得益于其对 OpenAI 的早期投资。微软迅速将 OpenAI 的知识产权（IP）整合到其各种产品中，并从过去三年的 AI 相关举措中获得了丰厚回报。</p>
<p>在刚刚结束的 2025 财年（截至 6 月 30 日），公司的收入增长了 15%，达到 2820 亿美元，而调整后的每股收益则跃升了 16%，达到 13.64 美元。微软在所有业务板块都实现了令人印象深刻的增长，其中 Azure 云业务表现最佳，上一季度收入同比增长 39%。</p>
<p>更好的是，微软的收入管道增长速度远快于其收入。由于对 Azure 云和 Microsoft 365 产品的强劲需求，公司商业订单增长了 37%，超过 1000 亿美元。这些新合同使公司的商业剩余履约义务（RPO）达到了 3680 亿美元，比去年同期增长了 37%。</p>
<p>RPO 是公司将在未来某个时间履行的合同的总价值。因此，与收入相比，这一指标的更快增长是微软未来营收加速的潜在指标。此外，考虑到云 AI 市场的增长机会，微软的收入管道在未来进一步改善也并不令人惊讶。</p>
<p>微软的 Azure 及其他云收入在上一季度增长了 39%。这个数字本可以更高，但由于公司 AI 云服务的需求超过了供应，因此它一直在增加数据中心的容量。公司的 Azure 云业务在 2025 财年产生了 750 亿美元的收入。因此，公司的合同积压表明这一业务在未来有很大的增长空间。</p>
<p>此外，预计到本世纪末，基于云的 AI 服务的需求将以近 40% 的年增长率增加。这可能为微软未来的积压订单和收入进一步增长铺平道路，特别是考虑到它在建设以 AI 为首的数据中心上投入的巨额资金。</p>
<p>更高的数据中心容量理想情况下应能让微软在未来五年加速其收入增长。分析师预计这家 “七巨头” 公司的营收增长将在未来加速，并已上调了他们的预期。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/35c1f791a05d1478a34c52614ae5cc6a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="380" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/35c1f791a05d1478a34c52614ae5cc6a.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<h2>微软真的能超越英伟达的市值吗？</h2>
<p>上面的图表显示，分析师预计微软的收入将在未来三财年中增长中位数的十几个百分点，到 2028 财年（将于当年 6 月结束）接近 4250 亿美元。然而，云 AI 市场的长期增长机会，以及其 Microsoft 365 套件的 AI 驱动生产力工具的采用改善，可能会帮助其超越华尔街的预期。</p>
<p>但即使微软在 2028 财年之后的两年内维持 15% 的年增长率，其收入到本世纪末可能达到 5620 亿美元。微软目前是全球第二大公司，市值为 3.72 万亿美元，比英伟达的市值低 16%。重要的是，截至目前，微软的市销率仅为 13 倍。这是英伟达市销率的一半。</p>
<p>看到微软在五年后维持其销售倍数（这高于美国科技行业平均销售倍数 8.5 倍）并不令人惊讶，因为其增长率在改善。但即使在 2030 年以折扣价 10 倍销售交易并达到 5620 亿美元的收入，其市值也可能跃升至 5.6 万亿美元。</p>
<p>英伟达可能无法匹配这一市值，因为其收入增长预计将放缓，这可能促使其交易的高估值溢价减少。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5e37e1759b842753cff2a9401a005a58.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="380" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5e37e1759b842753cff2a9401a005a58.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>因此，微软在 2030 年超越英伟达成为全球最大公司的可能性不能被排除。</p>

微软

英伟达

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

MSFO

微软每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微软每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

MSFX

MSFY

<p>英伟达目前在人工智能芯片市场中领先，市值为 4.32 万亿美元，但竞争正在加剧。微软的市值为 3.72 万亿美元，在人工智能领域迅速增长，特别是通过其 Azure 云服务，收入增长了 39%。分析师预测，到 2030 年，微软的收入可能达到 5620 亿美元，可能会超过英伟达的市值。微软的市销率为 13，低于英伟达的 25，这表明它在未来几年可能会维持增长和估值改善</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NVDA) dominance of the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market has helped it become the world's most valuable company with a market cap of $4.32 trillion as of this writing. Importantly, Nvidia's growth remains solid despite its huge revenue base.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA）在人工智能（AI）芯片市场的主导地位使其成为全球最有价值的公司，截至目前市值达到 4.32 万亿美元。重要的是，尽管收入基数庞大，英伟达的增长依然稳健。</p>
</div><p>The chipmaker should maintain its remarkable growth in the future as well, considering the incredible amount of money that's expected to be spent on AI data centers over the next five years. Investor enthusiasm regarding Nvidia in the past three years has pushed its stock price higher and taken its valuation to premium levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到未来五年预计在 AI 数据中心上支出的巨额资金，这家芯片制造商在未来也应能保持其显著的增长。过去三年，投资者对英伟达的热情推动了其股价上涨，使其估值达到了高水平。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's stock now trades at 47 times trailing earnings and 25 times sales. Though there is a good chance that Nvidia's solid growth prospects justify that valuation, the company's upside could be handicapped by the growing competition in the AI chip market as well as geopolitical factors such as tariffs and regulatory hurdles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的股票目前交易于 47 倍的过去收益和 25 倍的销售额。尽管英伟达的稳健增长前景很可能证明这一估值是合理的，但公司可能会受到 AI 芯片市场竞争加剧以及关税和监管障碍等地缘政治因素的制约。</p>
</div><p>If that's indeed the case, then it won't be surprising to see Nvidia relinquish its title as the world's most valuable company to the one being featured below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果真是这样，那么看到英伟达失去全球最有价值公司称号也就不足为奇了，接下来将介绍的公司可能会取而代之。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzE4OTkvYWktd3JpdHRlbi1vbi1jbG91ZC1zaWxob3V0dGUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F831899%2Fai-written-on-cloud-silhoutte.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images</p>
</div><h2>A massive backlog is going to supercharge this company's growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巨大的积压订单将推动这家公司的增长</h2>
</div><p>Just like Nvidia, <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.20%) is a pioneer in AI thanks to its early investment in OpenAI. Microsoft moved quickly to integrate OpenAI's intellectual property (IP) into its various offerings, and it is reaping the rewards of the AI-focused moves it has made over the past three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与英伟达类似，<strong>微软</strong>（MSFT 0.20%）也是 AI 领域的先驱，得益于其对 OpenAI 的早期投资。微软迅速将 OpenAI 的知识产权（IP）整合到其各种产品中，并从过去三年的 AI 相关举措中获得了丰厚回报。</p>
</div><p>The company's revenue in the recently concluded fiscal 2025 (which ended on June 30) increased by 15% to $282 billion, while adjusted earnings jumped by 16% to $13.64 per share. Microsoft witnessed impressive growth across all of its business segments, with the Azure cloud business being the top performer with a 39% year-over-year jump in revenue in the previous quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在刚刚结束的 2025 财年（截至 6 月 30 日），公司的收入增长了 15%，达到 2820 亿美元，而调整后的每股收益则跃升了 16%，达到 13.64 美元。微软在所有业务板块都实现了令人印象深刻的增长，其中 Azure 云业务表现最佳，上一季度收入同比增长 39%。</p>
</div><p>Even better, Microsoft's revenue pipeline increased at a much faster pace than its revenue. The company's commercial bookings jumped by 37% to more than $100 billion on the back of strong demand for its Azure cloud and Microsoft 365 production. These new contracts took the company's commercial remaining performance obligations (RPO) to a whopping $368 billion, up by 37% from the year-ago period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更好的是，微软的收入管道增长速度远快于其收入。由于对 Azure 云和 Microsoft 365 产品的强劲需求，公司商业订单增长了 37%，超过 1000 亿美元。这些新合同使公司的商业剩余履约义务（RPO）达到了 3680 亿美元，比去年同期增长了 37%。</p>
</div><p>RPO is the total value of a company's contracts that will be fulfilled at a future date. So, the faster growth in this metric as compared to the revenue is an indicator of a potential acceleration in Microsoft's top line in the future. Also, it won't be surprising to see Microsoft's revenue pipeline improving further going forward, thanks to the growth opportunity in the cloud AI market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>RPO 是公司将在未来某个时间履行的合同的总价值。因此，与收入相比，这一指标的更快增长是微软未来营收加速的潜在指标。此外，考虑到云 AI 市场的增长机会，微软的收入管道在未来进一步改善也并不令人惊讶。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft's Azure and other cloud revenue were up by 39% last quarter. That figure could have been higher, but the demand for the company's AI cloud services is exceeding supply, which is why it has been bringing online more data center capacity. The company's Azure cloud business generated $75 billion in revenue in fiscal 2025. So, the company's contracted backlog indicates that this business has a lot of room for growth in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软的 Azure 及其他云收入在上一季度增长了 39%。这个数字本可以更高，但由于公司 AI 云服务的需求超过了供应，因此它一直在增加数据中心的容量。公司的 Azure 云业务在 2025 财年产生了 750 亿美元的收入。因此，公司的合同积压表明这一业务在未来有很大的增长空间。</p>
</div><p>Also, the demand for cloud-based AI services is expected to increase at an annual rate of almost 40% through the end of the decade. This could pave the way for further growth in Microsoft's backlog and revenue in the future, especially considering the massive amount of money it is spending to build AI-first data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，预计到本世纪末，基于云的 AI 服务的需求将以近 40% 的年增长率增加。这可能为微软未来的积压订单和收入进一步增长铺平道路，特别是考虑到它在建设以 AI 为首的数据中心上投入的巨额资金。</p>
</div><p>Higher data center capacity should ideally allow Microsoft to accelerate its revenue growth over the next five years. Analysts expect this &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; company's top-line growth to pick up going forward and have hiked their estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更高的数据中心容量理想情况下应能让微软在未来五年加速其收入增长。分析师预计这家 “七巨头” 公司的营收增长将在未来加速，并已上调了他们的预期。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/35c1f791a05d1478a34c52614ae5cc6a.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/35c1f791a05d1478a34c52614ae5cc6a.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Can Microsoft really exceed Nvidia's market cap?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微软真的能超越英伟达的市值吗？</h2>
</div><p>The chart above says analysts expect Microsoft's revenue to grow in the mid-teens over the next three fiscal years, reaching almost $425 billion in fiscal 2028 (which will end in June that year). However, the secular growth opportunities in the cloud AI market, as well as the improving adoption of its Microsoft 365 suite of AI-powered productivity tools, could help it exceed Wall Street's expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上面的图表显示，分析师预计微软的收入将在未来三财年中增长中位数的十几个百分点，到 2028 财年（将于当年 6 月结束）接近 4250 亿美元。然而，云 AI 市场的长期增长机会，以及其 Microsoft 365 套件的 AI 驱动生产力工具的采用改善，可能会帮助其超越华尔街的预期。</p>
</div><p>But even if Microsoft sustains a 15% annual growth rate in the two years beyond fiscal 2028, its top line could hit $562 billion by the end of the decade. Microsoft is currently the world's second-largest company with a market cap of $3.72 trillion, which is 16% lower than Nvidia's market cap. Importantly, Microsoft is trading at a much lower 13 times sales as of this writing. That's half of Nvidia's price-to-sales ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但即使微软在 2028 财年之后的两年内维持 15% 的年增长率，其收入到本世纪末可能达到 5620 亿美元。微软目前是全球第二大公司，市值为 3.72 万亿美元，比英伟达的市值低 16%。重要的是，截至目前，微软的市销率仅为 13 倍。这是英伟达市销率的一半。</p>
</div><p>It won't be surprising to see Microsoft sustain its sales multiple (which is a premium to the U.S. technology sector's average sales multiple of 8.5) after five years, as its growth rate improves. But even if it trades at a discounted 10 times sales in 2030 and hits $562 billion in revenue, its market cap could jump to $5.6 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看到微软在五年后维持其销售倍数（这高于美国科技行业平均销售倍数 8.5 倍）并不令人惊讶，因为其增长率在改善。但即使在 2030 年以折扣价 10 倍销售交易并达到 5620 亿美元的收入，其市值也可能跃升至 5.6 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia may not be able to match that market cap as its top-line growth is expected to slow down going forward, which could prompt a reduction in the big valuation premium it is trading at.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达可能无法匹配这一市值，因为其收入增长预计将放缓，这可能促使其交易的高估值溢价减少。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5e37e1759b842753cff2a9401a005a58.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5e37e1759b842753cff2a9401a005a58.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>So, the possibility of Microsoft overtaking Nvidia as the world's largest company by 2030 cannot be ruled out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，微软在 2030 年超越英伟达成为全球最大公司的可能性不能被排除。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Could Surpass Nvidia's Market Cap by 2030

- Nvidia 市值达 4.32 万亿美元，主导 AI 芯片市场，增长前景乐观。  
- Microsoft 财年收入增长 15%，预计未来将加速，市值为 3.72 万亿美元。  
- 分析师预测 Microsoft 可能在 2030 年超越 Nvidia，市值达到 5.6 万亿美元。

预测：这只人工智能（AI）股票可能在 2030 年市值超过英伟达